Donald Trump’s Electability Paradox

Gen­er­ally, across the three polls, Trump has es­tab­lished a some­what bet­ter image among men, and older adults near­ing the end of their work ca­reers (those aged 50 to 64), a group that has ex­pressed enorm­ous anxi­ety about their economic pro­spects in oth­er sur­veys.
Trump’s im­age re­mains es­pe­cially tox­ic among the com­pon­ents of the “co­ali­tion of the as­cend­ant”—the groups at the core of the mod­ern Demo­crat­ic co­ali­tion that are all in­creas­ing as a share of the elect­or­ate. Sup­port from those grow­ing groups—par­tic­u­larly the mil­len­ni­al gen­er­a­tion, minor­it­ies, and col­lege-edu­cated, single and sec­u­lar whites, es­pe­cially wo­men
.. Fig­ures provided by CNN polling dir­ect­or Jen­nifer Agi­esta, for in­stance, show that while 66 per­cent of Re­pub­lic­an wo­men ex­pressed a fa­vor­able view of Trump in the Decem­ber sur­vey that plummeted to a minus­cule 12 per­cent among all women who are not Re­pub­lic­ans. Fully 81 per­cent of non-Re­pub­lic­an wo­men viewed Trump un­fa­vor­ably.
.. While 83 per­cent of Demo­crat­ic wo­men viewed Clin­ton fa­vor­ably in the latest CNN sur­vey, only 23 per­cent of non-Demo­crat­ic wo­men agreed. Only 19 per­cent of non-Demo­crat­ic men expressed fa­vor­able views of Clin­ton in the CNN poll.

What Donald Trump Owes George Wallace

And despite his reputation as a belligerent speechmaker, the insecure Mr. Wallace privately sought to ingratiate himself with friends and foes alike. It’s hard to imagine the egotistic Mr. Trump beginning a call to a hostile newspaper editor by cheerfully explaining, as Mr. Wallace once did, “I just called up to kiss your ass some more.”

.. Mindful of his reputation as a defender of segregation, the Alabama governor avoided explicitly racist language. He was a pioneer in the use of code words to attack African-Americans while seldom mentioning race, instead condemning “asinine” school busing, the “bloc vote” and the “thugs” from America’s inner cities who supposedly stalked the nation’s streets.

.. A wild energy seemed to flow back and forth between Mr. Wallace and his audience as he called out their mutual enemies: bearded hippies, pornographers, sophisticated intellectuals who mocked God, traitorous anti-Vietnam War protesters, welfare bums, cowardly politicians and “pointy-head college professors who can’t even park a bicycle straight.”

.. Both George Wallace and Donald Trump are part of a long national history of scapegoating minorities: from the Irish, Catholics, Asians, Eastern European immigrants and Jews to Muslims and Latino immigrants. During times of insecurity, a sizable minority of Americans has been drawn to forceful figures who confidently promise the destruction of all enemies, real and imagined, allowing Americans to return to a past that never existed.

What’s the Point of the New Ted Cruz Birtherism?

Given all that, it would be hard for him to not at least go through some motions on questioning Cruz’s eligibility—even if Obama had been born abroad, his mother was an American citizen, which would give him the same claim to citizenship that Cruz does. (Not that Trump has allowed a foolish consistency to be the hobgoblin of his “really smart” mind.)

.. Moreover, the birther attack gives Trump a good method to attack Cruz, who has recently emerged as his major rival in polling both nationally and in Iowa. But what kind of weapon is birtherism? It is, at its root, an effective way of telling voters that Cruz isn’t like them. That he’s not one of us. That he’s different. In other words, it capitalizes on all of the anti-immigrant, anti-foreigner sentiments that have driven his campaign all along.

.. Yet Trump repeated the idea on Face the Nation: “Cuba, generally speaking, is a Catholic country. And you don’t equate evangelicals with Cuba. I don’t.” But if these jabs are interpreted mostly as a method of reminding people that Cruz is Cuban, they make a great deal more sense. (Of course, Catholicism has also been used to other people in American politics for centuries.)

Purity, Disgust and Donald Trump

Many American voters, Haidt wrote,

perceive that the moral order is falling apart, the country is losing its coherence and cohesiveness, diversity is rising, and our leadership seems to be suspect or not up to the needs of the hour.

Haidt, a professor at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, argues that Trump

is not a conservative, and is not appealing to classical conservative ideas. He is an authoritarian, who is profiting from the chaos in Washington, Syria, Paris, San Bernardino, and even the chaos on campuses, which are creating a more authoritarian electorate in the Republican primaries.

.. Trump is more domineering than the other candidates, bullying opponents and reporters alike, calling them losers, refusing to ever apologize for anything. This could indeed appeal to those high in social-dominance orientation and authoritarianism, particularly those who mistake such domineering for actual authority.

Graham and Haidt have found in their research that for the most conservative voters, the two “values” with the strongest appeal are authority and purity.