But 96 percent of House incumbents won re-election in 2014, and the Republican majority — despite its own 71 percent disapproval rating on Election Day — expanded.
.. Underlying the old rule was a bigger one: the “median voter theorem” — the idea that the views of the typical, middle-of-the-road voter, as expressed through elections, drove parties and politicians.
.. It’s not much of a theory at all anymore. Well-organized interest groups like the National Rifle Association and the National Education Association as well as large donors and ideological warriors on both sides have more clout than the median voter because they are organized and focused while most people aren’t.
.. Consider another once-useful guideline, which dates to the 1960s: Americans are “philosophical conservatives but operational liberals.” That is, we hate the idea of government, but we value the benefits we get from government — and politicians act accordingly.
.. Restrictions on voting, along with aggressive redistricting, reduce the influence of the median voter. Campaign war chests (including “super PACs”) scare off opponents, from within their own party as well as the other. By crippling civil-society institutions such as unions and community groups, which organize middle- and lower-income voters, they sometimes avoid being held accountable.
.. And by recasting politics as a winner-take-all conflict between wholly incompatible ideologies and identities — as most of the presidential candidates have done — they help to closely align party and ideology, so that those who identify as Republican will always vote Republican and vice versa. When politicians know more or less who will vote and how, they can ignore most voters — including their own loyalists.
Eight Questions for the New Year in Politics
In the new year, watch for Trump to start lowering expectations and declaring that he might not win Iowa, after all.
.. Next fall, right before the election, when the government’s annual spending authority runs out, he will have to avoid the inevitable threats from the right to shut the government down over Obamacare or immigration or Planned Parenthood or whatever the issue of the moment is among conservatives.
Ross Douthat: Underestimating Trump
I underestimated Donald Trump.
To really make a clean breast on this issue, I have to reach back earlier than 2015 (some forecasts take more than a year to be disproven), to a column I wrote in the far-off days of the 2012 campaign, when Mitt Romney flew to Vegas, baby, to accept an endorsement from the Donald.
.. Second, that faction has turned out to include precisely the kind of voters Romney needed in 2012 and who stayed home instead: Blue-collar whites with moderate views on economics and a weak attachment to the institutional G.O.P... I certainly overestimated poor Jeb Bush, whom I wrongly predicted would profit from Trump’s rise.
Donald Trump Isn’t a Fascist; He’s a Media-Savvy Know-Nothing
The Know-Nothings originated as secret societies of white Anglo-Saxon Protestants angered by an influx of immigrants, particularly Irish Roman Catholics who were crossing the Atlantic to flee poverty and find work in the rapidly industrializing U.S. economy. The Know-Nothings got their name because, when asked about their clandestine activities, they often said, “I know nothing.” Fearful of popery, liquor, and big-city political machines that harvested the votes of new arrivals, they called for restrictions on immigration, the closure of saloons, and a ban on foreign-born people holding public office. “Americans must rule America,” they said.
.. In the run-up to the 1856 Presidential election, the Know-Nothings put together a Trumpian platform that demanded the repeal of naturalization laws, the banning of the foreign-born from public office, and the deportation of foreign-born paupers, including children... In Massachusetts, for instance, Know-Nothing politicians did best in industrial areas, where native workers were competing with Irish immigrants. With the rise of the Republican Party and the onset of the Civil War, the Know-Nothings entered a precipitous decline, but the prejudices and anxieties that motivated them never fully went away... The image of a big wall across the southern border is central to Trump’s campaign—not just in policy terms but also psychologically. It represents a physical manifestation of the desire to place a large stop sign before the onward march of history... Other Republicans structure their campaigns around establishing a presence in the first primary states and doing well in the national television debates. According to the conventional wisdom, that is what you have to do. Trump, however, concentrates on something else: dominating the daily news cycle. To this end, he maintains a constant presence on social media and cable news channels.