Everybody Loves a Winner. So What Happens if Trump Loses?

He does like talking about himself. But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.

.. They found that uncommitted participants in an online experiment were significantly more likely to back a candidate if the candidate was described as narrowly winning in the polls rather than narrowly losing.

.. If these theories hold, Mr. Trump’s promotion of his poll numbers not only threatens to undermine his appeal if he loses, but may also help his opponents rally their supporters against him.

Donald Trump Finds a Foil in Paul Ryan

The ideas the group de­bated in­cluded con­vert­ing more fed­er­al anti-poverty programs in­to state block grants; ex­pand­ing the Earned In­come Tax Cred­it that sup­ports the work­ing poor, pro­mot­ing charter schools, crim­in­al-justice re­form, and re­think­ing treat­ment for drug ad­dicts. Phrases such as “out­come-based meas­ures” and “middle-skilled jobs” drew know­ing nods.

.. Demo­crats find much to cri­ti­cize in these spe­cif­ic pro­pos­als. Ad­voc­ates for the poor ar­gue that Ry­an’s plans to block-grant anti-poverty pro­grams such as food stamps would pro­duce large spend­ing cuts.

.. Polit­ic­ally, the for­um re­flec­ted the be­lief of many con­ser­vat­ive policy intellectuals that the party can win back the White House only by prov­ing it has con­crete re­sponses that ex­tend bey­ond tax cuts to the eco­nom­ic chal­lenges most Amer­ic­ans face.

.. Their more fun­da­ment­al difference is that Trump is lead­ing the GOP to­ward a European-style ra­cial nationalism that re­lies primar­ily on mar­shal­ing griev­ances among ali­en­ated whites

Rush Limbaugh Is Cheating on Conservatism With Donald Trump

All explicitly supported him in the name of conservatism.

Now Jeb Bush says that Republicans have to stop Trump lest conservatives lose control of the GOP. And Limbaugh is rejecting a Bush who is no less conservative than his brother, insisting that establishment guys like him want to destroy Trump out of disdainful elitism, even though Trump has been uniquely successful building a coalition out of the ostensibly conservative voters that constitute the GOP’s core.

.. But for now, Trump remains the man to beat, even halfway through January 2016, and that tells us something: A large part of the GOP base supports a man who has never been an ideological conservative, and is less conservative than many of his rivals, because ideological conservatism is relatively unimportant to it.

In this, they resemble their favorite radio host.

Without admitting it to himself, more fully than ever before in his long political-talk career, Limbaugh has abandoned conservatism as his lodestar. All else being equal, he still prefers the ideology. But it’s now negotiable. He’d rather have a non-conservative nominee who attacks and is loathed by the Republican  establishment than a conservative who is conciliatory and appealing to moderates.

And Trump was uniquely suited to bring him to this point.

.. It’s no wonder that Limbaugh likes Trump. The talk-radio host also got fantastically rich selling ego, bombast, and brazenness to the masses, elitist tastemakers be damned. They’ve both been used by politicians who don’t, in truth, have much respect for them.

.. The DJs who sound so suave and confident were usually not seen that way when they were growing up. Even the most successful disc jockeys have usually had to move from city to city every few years. Limbaugh’s early life sounds as if it fit this pattern. Moreover, he was by objective standards a failure well into his thirties. He was fired from several DJ jobs, had two short and unsuccessful marriages, was chronically broke, and spent five long years as a public-relations man for the Kansas City Royals, fearing that his radio career was over.

.. Limbaugh could mock liberals and “feminizes” on the air, but in person he was (Dowd made clear) very eager to be liked.

.. his tremendous success on the radio didn’t translate into the sort of respect or influence or deference or validation that he had once imagined it would. I don’t think lack of pedigree is high on the list of reasons that Limbaugh is disliked so intensely by so many, but I can see why he would tell himself that story.

.. But rather than carry no water this cycle, Limbaugh is carrying a lot of it for Trump, as if seeking validation from him will go any better than it did when he sought it from Bushes.

.. And Limbaugh is right that Bush doesn’t dislike Trump due to a lack of conservatism. Bush dislikes Trump because he’s a crude, thrice-divorced bully with no sense of propriety or noblesse oblige. Trump is antithetical to Bush’s values and manners. As a kid, Barbara never would’ve allowed him to play with a boy like that!

.. But Limbaugh seemingly no longer believes in the Buckley rule. He no longer considers conservatism the most important factor in elections. The impulse to destroy the establishment drives him more than any constructive vision. If Limbaugh can antagonize the Bushes, the mainstream media, the Hollywood liberals and the GOP establishment all at once by aligning himself with a Sarah Palin or a Donald Trump, the opportunity is too good to pass up, because Limbaugh is less invested in winning some ideological battles than fighting a culture war.
.. Like all successful reality TV, half the audience is watching in horror and the other half in aspiration.

Why I Will Never Vote for Donald Trump

His nomination would pose a profound threat to the Republican Party and conservatism, in ways that Hillary Clinton never could. For while Mrs. Clinton could inflict a defeat on the Republican Party, she could not redefine it. But Mr. Trump, if he were the Republican nominee, would.

.. If Mr. Trump heads the Republican Party, it will no longer be a conservative party; it will be an angry, bigoted, populist one. Mr. Trump would represent a dramatic break with and a fundamental assault on the party’s best traditions.

.. I will go further: Mr. Trump is precisely the kind of man our system of government was designed to avoid, the type of leader our founders feared — a demagogic figure who does not view himself as part of our constitutional system but rather as an alternative to it.