How climate change will impact the stock market

Whether you agree with it or not, the sentiment around ESG has dramatically shifted and talk of an impending ‘Carbon Correction’ is going to create havoc in the markets. Company valuations are about to be judged by different metrics which will create huge opportunities for investors. With insights from politicians, financiers,0 environmental consultants and tech experts, this investigative documentary will get you ahead of the curve so you can understand what’s coming.

Transcript

00:02
right morning everyone morning oh yeah
00:07
that’s what keys look it’s great
00:20
[Music]
00:29
I’m Jamie McDonald and I was a fund
00:32
manager in London in New York for 10
00:34
years in that time
00:36
ESG investing was certainly something we
00:37
talked about but it wasn’t something
00:39
that really mattered and it didn’t
00:41
matter because it couldn’t be valued and
00:43
therefore it didn’t really affect Morken
00:45
sentiment but now now I’ve got a feeling
00:49
that’s gonna change wore off to Davos
00:55
the World Economic Forum melting pot of
00:58
business politics and finance and we’re
01:00
going to get underneath the skin of the
01:02
key question this year which is what is
01:04
the future of capitalism and how can we
01:07
sustain our economic system for future
01:09
generations
01:17
so I’m here I’ve made it to Davos and
01:19
through the tunnels on through the
01:20
numerous security checks and I’ve got
01:22
one to hear on to the high street now
01:24
I’m really getting a sense of the kind
01:26
of chaotic atmosphere that’s going on
01:28
there’s people in ski suits and business
01:29
suits there’s expensive cars as cable
01:31
cars it’s sort of mayhem really I know
01:34
already I’m gonna have to grab people in
01:35
between their meetings as they come out
01:37
of interviews very much on the fly
01:39
[Music]
01:47
Marcus hey how are you I’m really good
01:49
thank you so much for taking our with
01:51
pleasure
01:51
I’m going around Davos and I’m speaking
01:53
to people about this shift that’s
01:54
happening in terms of environment and
01:56
investing yes and it’s taught that 2020
01:58
might be a tipping point now I really do
02:00
value your opinion on this is that
02:02
something you agree with you know I
02:04
started to feel this was happening in
02:06
couple of years ago I think 2019 was the
02:08
transition here millions of people start
02:10
to understand that the environment was
02:12
much more than something given to us you
02:14
we have to actually have a return on
02:15
this and I think business understanding
02:17
this if you’re invest in sustainability
02:19
you’re improving the quality of business
02:21
sophistication of consumer more more
02:23
consumer they want to know where the
02:24
things are coming from
02:25
I think 2020 is really at the beginning
02:27
of maybe the 21st century finally this
02:30
is the echo chamber that will push it
02:32
and propel us to the future
02:33
[Music]
02:43
I’m now heading across town for meeting
02:45
with David Craig he’s the CEO of
02:47
affinity they are a data company right
02:51
at the heart of this issue on ESG
02:52
because they’re at the forefront of
02:53
helping companies and governments both
02:56
monitor the issue and measure it so
02:58
really interesting it feels like 2020 is
03:02
going to be the year for green investing
03:06
but why now why 2020 the reason that
03:08
it’s cool is that people are realizing
03:11
the price of the harm that we’re doing
03:14
to the environment be it carbon
03:16
emissions or carbon equivalents or
03:18
illegal logging that price isn’t
03:20
factored in it’s gonna mean a reprice of
03:23
many assets and funds and debt and
03:26
liabilities and when you talk in those
03:27
terms when central bank’s say they’re
03:29
going to ask companies to look at this
03:31
you know that actually a substantial
03:33
shift is coming so this shift is going
03:36
to lead to a reshaping of the world of
03:38
finance
03:39
yes finance is going to be reshaped I
03:42
think there’s no doubt in our mind that
03:43
this is going to happen and people have
03:45
talked about this for many years but now
03:48
I think everything’s coming together to
03:50
say the shift is coming the question
03:52
people are asking is not if it’s coming
03:53
it’s how quickly is this a cliff event
03:55
or is a a gradual shift over several
03:58
years David what is going to be the role
04:00
of data within all of this and how can
04:02
we use that data well the data is
04:04
incredibly important because if you want
04:06
to understand the the environmental
04:08
footprint the emissions for example or
04:10
the water usage of the investments in
04:12
making you need data you need to
04:13
understand and what those are and you
04:16
need to compare between companies to
04:18
make those investment decisions even
04:19
quoted as saying that financial markets
04:21
need to prepare themselves for this
04:23
impending carbon correction what do you
04:25
mean by the companies and funds and
04:29
banks are going to revalue instruments
04:32
based on the true forward-looking likely
04:35
price of carbon and that they would move
04:37
that estimate so that they had
04:39
incorporate an overall revaluation of
04:41
those assets and the overall impact
04:45
could be significant a but of course it
04:46
won’t be uniform it would be different
04:48
from high carbon intense
04:50
and carbon equivalent emissions
04:51
industries too low so that was daily
04:55
prayed from repetitive and what I took
04:57
away from that was the debate previously
05:00
may have been is climate change
05:02
happening or not but that’s not the
05:04
debate anymore because companies and
05:06
governments are making that shift debate
05:08
now from vestiges this shift is
05:10
happening how am I going to be able to
05:12
profit from that and clearly at the
05:14
center of this is data because it’s data
05:17
that makes people accountable and I
05:19
think it’s data that’s gonna be the
05:20
catalyst for the shift
05:22
[Music]
05:27
one thing I’ve noticed is that the shops
05:30
and stores are then if you can see
05:31
they’ve been taken over by some of the
05:33
larger corporates around the world and
05:35
they’ve turned them into their
05:36
headquarters for the next few days why
05:38
it presumably they talk about their
05:40
agenda for the next twelve months now
05:42
Shannon I know you’ve just come out of a
05:44
private web session here at Davos as
05:46
much as you can can you tell us who is
05:49
there
05:49
what you talked about and what your
05:51
conclusions were this session which was
05:53
banking on sustainability so it’s the
05:55
financial services industry banks
05:58
there were CEOs of some pretty important
06:00
banks in the room nope I cannot but
06:04
we’re all passionate about the subject
06:06
of obviously the topic which is the
06:08
climate crisis and the financial
06:09
services role in the climate crisis and
06:12
it was fascinating because I think that
06:13
there were two really key threads or or
06:17
themes of this which was to
06:19
differentiate between climate risk and
06:21
climate transition climate risk is
06:24
evaluating how much risk you are exposed
06:26
to with the carbon that you have in your
06:28
portfolios and are you financing the
06:29
climate risk and what was interesting is
06:31
the voices around this for and we’re all
06:33
in favor of a carbon tax and really
06:35
really you know to the point of we’re
06:38
ready for it and we would like this tax
06:39
to be proportional to the damage it’s
06:41
doing to the climate now what about
06:42
those companies that are using carbon
06:44
now I mean they can’t just switch
06:45
overnight there’s got to be some sort of
06:47
transition phase did they talk about
06:48
that yeah absolutely so that was the
06:50
second part of the topic which was the
06:51
climate transition and there was this
06:53
notion of it’s not a binary thing
06:55
between what they started calling green
06:57
assets and brown assets right so green
06:59
obviously being carbon you know limited
07:02
or neutral and brown assets being those
07:03
dirty ones that are quite carbon heavy
07:05
so we can’t just divest from the brown
07:08
ones is the the notion but that the
07:11
financial services industry and banks in
07:12
general really need to invest and
07:14
finance the transition so keep investing
07:17
in let’s call the brown assets but do so
07:20
with conditions in place that makes it
07:22
apparent that the funding is going
07:24
towards the transition to renewable
07:26
energy sources well Shannon thank you so
07:28
much you’ve literally give us insight
07:30
into what’s going on behind closed doors
07:31
so thank you for your time absolutely no
07:33
problem
07:38
exactly my sink another slap you only
07:42
like the name planet’ the name is my
07:44
living together on the bow and at the
07:47
company so when we arrived this morning
07:50
it was certainly a few protesters around
07:52
I’m talking like tens of protesters why
07:54
are we marching up and down the street
07:56
you can tell there’s a sense of protest
07:58
but here we are you know six or seven
08:00
hours into the day and now we’re talking
08:01
hundreds of protesters all singing
08:03
chanting behind me
08:12
[Music]
08:23
we’re very lucky indeed to have grabbed
08:26
here former Prime Minister Helen Clark
08:27
who’s literally dashing in between
08:29
meetings in interviews so we’ve got this
08:32
opportunity to ask her a few questions
08:33
which if you don’t mind I’m just going
08:34
to dive straight into so when it seems
08:37
like this financial shift is happening
08:39
in markets and more credit being given
08:42
to those companies who are behaving
08:43
should we say more responsibly do you
08:45
think that’s going to come from
08:46
shareholders or do you think it’s going
08:47
to come from governments and policy
08:49
makers no I think it’s going to come
08:51
from the public I think it’s going to
08:52
come from the consumer if you’re a
08:54
company who’s not taking ESG and the
08:56
data around ESG seriously are those
08:59
going to be companies who fall behind
09:00
I think they’ll suffer financially as
09:03
consumers increasingly make their
09:04
choices wanting to know what the whole
09:06
value chain was how was this made what
09:09
were the ethics behind it was that
09:10
sustainably produced was the labor
09:12
exploited people asking these questions
09:14
and they’re asking these questions more
09:16
and more as we go to more and more and
09:17
the companies that don’t measure up are
09:20
going to suffer financially in my
09:21
opinion
09:24
good
09:27
[Music]
09:31
so it’s very clear that this shift in
09:34
financial markets is happening and
09:36
that’s going to produce winners and
09:37
losers so we want to know is who are
09:40
going to be the winners and losers and
09:42
when are we going to see that divergence
09:44
starting to happen at Davos for many
09:47
years the whole conversation about ESG
09:49
has been sort of present but this year
09:53
there’s a real palpable shift from a
09:55
rhetoric to an urgent call for action
09:59
there is a real top-down push from
10:02
responsible governments and then there
10:05
is a huge groundswell and a surge of
10:09
emphasis particularly from the
10:11
Millennials and I think the companies
10:14
that win are going to be the companies
10:16
that have real strong proof points that
10:18
they’re not just focused on a financial
10:20
bottom line they’re actually focused on
10:23
sustainable performance that is good for
10:26
shareholders but it’s good for employees
10:28
it’s good for customers and it’s good
10:30
for the planet I think the the
10:32
corporations that do that convincingly
10:36
and with integrity they will attract
10:39
more customers they’ll attract a
stronger talent base because Millennials
all want to work for companies that have
a real commitment to sustainability and

those companies through changes that are
taking place sweeping changes that are
taking place in financial services are
going to have much greater access to
capital and much greater access to
financial services they’ll be the
winners and conversely the companies
that fail to make that leap you know
they’ll lose on every one of those
dimensions
do you think investors going
11:12
forward are going to get much more
11:14
they’re going to require a lot more
11:16
transparency into the ESG comply ability
11:21
of the companies they invested in the
11:22
funds that they invest in and will there
11:23
be a shift of money away from general
11:26
funds more towards these greener funds
11:28
yeah absolutely financial services firms
11:30
are really looking for the data proof
11:33
points of companies and the data proof
11:36
points of their funds investors are
11:39
seeking them out most corporations today
11:42
that
11:43
going on let’s say a roadshow listing to
11:47
go public the number one question that
11:49
they are asked is what is the ESG score
11:53
investors are going to be putting
11:54
pressure on corporations to make sure
11:56
that they understand the ESG scores of
11:59
the companies that are in their supply
12:01
chain as well so the knock-on effect of
12:03
this is going to be extremely pervasive
12:06
companies that have very very very
advanced and proactive practices around
diversity and inclusion are actually the
highest performing financial companies
out of the 7,000 companies in our
database
that was really interesting as
12:24
there was alluding to its those
12:25
companies that are paying attention to
12:27
issues around ESG that are outperforming
12:29
so ESG is now at the forefront of
12:32
investors decisions because it’s
12:33
becoming a deciding factor
12:35
who knows that win and those that lose
12:37
there are some people out there some
12:39
cynical people who don’t believe in
12:41
climate change what would you say to
12:42
those kind of investors we don’t even
12:43
necessarily have to have the
12:45
conversation about whether you believe
12:47
in climate change or not let’s have the
12:49
conversation about what are you
12:51
concerned about in terms of risks and
12:52
opportunities for your portfolio
we’re
12:54
seeing increasing evidence that weather
12:56
patterns waters or h3 Georgia’s energy
12:58
shortages material shortages that all
13:01
these things are increasingly realities
13:03
when you have a consuming growing
13:05
population and a finite planet so if you
13:07
isn’t a business person or investor care
13:09
at all about any of those inputs of
13:11
costs or risks to your business then you
13:14
need to care about this whole other
13:15
suite this whole suite of issues
many of
13:18
those things happen to be involved in or
13:21
affected by sort of the mega issue of
13:23
climate change I mean think about it
13:25
another way if I said to you would you
13:27
like me to invest your money in a way
13:29
that ignores a number of factors that
13:31
could affect your business whether
13:33
that’s weather or water or pollution or
13:36
do you want me to take into account
13:37
those things that could be risks
13:38
opportunity to your business
I don’t
13:39
know many investors who say please
13:40
ignore all those macro megatrend effects
13:43
now you’re talking about the change
13:44
happening and I want to talk about the
13:46
pace of that chat because in 2020
13:48
I’m walking around Davos and I feel like
13:50
a lot of people are talking more about
13:52
this topic do you feel that 2020 is a
13:54
real tipping point for the
13:55
I think now that it sort of bubbled up
13:57
to the level where you’re hearing pretty
13:58
much every CEO here at Davao is talking
14:01
about how do we do this how do we
14:02
integrate this into our sustainability
14:03
strategy that it’s really we’re at this
14:06
tipping point well I think there’s been
14:07
a psychological and sociological shift
14:09
to understanding that there’s been more
14:11
and more data supporting that you can
14:13
actually do both and in fact good
14:15
business good asset management run you
14:18
know running a company well all involves
14:20
thinking about the environment and how
14:22
your business affects that when all
14:23
these things come together I think we’re
14:25
really just gonna see you know a real
14:27
sea change so the shifter seems to be
14:28
coming from so many different angles
14:30
it’s coming and all the stars are
14:31
aligning so investors stop thinking
14:33
whether climate change is real or not
14:34
right a fact is the future for those
14:36
companies who are not being here XI
14:38
compliant it’s going to be more
14:39
difficult exactly I mean look look at
14:40
the reality of all these factors that
14:41
are coming together and again I don’t
14:43
know any investor who will ignore
14:44
regulatory issues you know ignore
14:47
governmental changes ignore commodities
14:49
prices you know ignore new markets that
14:52
are emerging and you know other works
14:54
that are becoming more risky
14:56
[Music]
15:02
this has got a message saying that from
15:04
quick about two minutes with Jimmy Wales
15:07
so I’m off to try and grab him Jimmy
15:10
thank you so much for taking the time so
15:12
we’ve got really one fundamental
15:14
question want to ask which is is 2020 a
15:17
tipping point for the world of ESG I do
15:21
think so I think there been a lot of
15:23
important developments I think the sense
15:26
of urgency around climate change is
15:28
stronger than ever I think companies are
15:29
now beginning to realize that their
15:31
customers are demanding it their
15:33
employees are demanding it and that
15:35
there’s actually opportunities in it I
15:36
think there is a moment here where
15:38
caring about some of these issues is no
15:41
longer just like a do-gooder thing but
15:43
it’s actually profitable and if that’s
15:44
true then we’re gonna make some progress

15:47
and how do you think this area is going
15:49
to affect the valuation of companies
15:50
well you know obviously consumers care
15:52
about these issues more than ever before
15:54
governments care about these issues when
15:55
they’re before this means there’s
15:56
pressure on companies ultimately I think
15:58
companies need to answer to their
16:00
shareholders but I think shareholders
16:02
are beginning to realize that these
16:03
things actually do have an positive
16:05
impact on the bottom line doing the
16:06
right things consumers as their tastes
16:08
change then it’s gonna have a negative
16:11
impact on companies that don’t wake up
16:13
and actually get ahead of the trend and
16:14
have an image with consumers like yeah
16:16
you actually care now follow up
16:19
questions that is investors have
16:20
previously to some extent ignored ESG as
16:23
a topic because it hasn’t typically made
16:25
you money to be a green investor should
16:27
we say but now would you say that
16:29
investors have to wake up and pay
16:30
attention to ESG because those are the
16:32
companies that are going to basically
16:33
outshine I mean yeah if you’re an
16:36
investor is it’s just like every single
16:38
sort of fundamental shift in society if
16:41
you’re ahead of that trend and you
16:43
recognize that trend there are
16:45
opportunities to make money and so being
16:47
a green investor that’s simply trying to
16:49
sort of do good might not have had
16:53
superior returns but if you’re entering
16:55
into an era where we’re fundamentally
16:56
transforming the infrastructure society
16:58
hey you better be ahead of that and
17:00
there’s going to be returns to be
17:03
[Music]
17:08
I’m getting towards the end of the day
17:10
here in Davos and of course been quite a
17:12
long day
17:12
to be honest I’ve met with politicians
17:14
finance ears tech experts data experts
17:17
ESG experts obviously and I’ve had so
17:20
many conversations that what I want to
17:22
do now is just go away and have a real
17:23
think about everything I’ve talked about
17:26
today and then in the car come up with
17:28
some conclusions and finally work out is
17:32
2020 the year when we see this real
17:35
shift and ESG is at the forefront of
17:37
investors Minds
17:41
[Music]
17:45
as I look back on my time at Davos
17:48
it’s clear to me that whatever your
17:50
views on ESG investing and I was
17:53
definitely a cynic we’re now at a
17:55
tipping point seismic changes are coming
17:58
and that’s going to create massive
18:00
opportunities for investors the huge
18:03
increase in ESG data led by companies
18:06
like ref init ‘iv is the catalyst
18:07
because it means that after years of
18:10
false promises in greenwash companies
18:12
are suddenly going to be accountable and
18:14
this will surely be reflected in their
18:17
valuations David Craig called this the
18:20
carbon correction and he says the
18:22
adjustments could reach trillions of
18:25
dollars this will trigger extraordinary
18:27
shifts in prices the trick for investors
18:30
is to get on the front foot in terms of
18:33
risk management while taking advantage
18:35
of the new profit opportunities that
18:37
will be created by this shaker
18:40
hold onto your hats
18:45
[Music]
18:53
[Music]
18:59
you

Marc Andreessen on the Need for Growth to Prevent Zero Sum Thinking

Many skeptics thought the internet would never reach mass adoption, but today it’s shaping global culture, is integral to our lives–and this is just the beginning. In this conversation, Kevin Kelly (Founding Executive Editor, WIRED magazine) and Marc Andreessen (Cofounder and General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz) sit down to discuss the evolution of technology, the new “Space Race,” and how measuring prosperity on a global scale is the key to our collective success. Learn why they share an optimistic view on the possibilities of the future.

HIGHLIGHTS
Discussion on closing the digital divide [3:00]
The many possibilities of voice technology as an interface [9:59]
Moore’s Law vs. Eroom’s law [14:14]
Looking at 5G Technology as the next global driver [20:38]
New models for VC and company models [27:05]
How long-term thinking can be applied in Silicon Valley [29:53]
Measuring prosperity on a global scale [34:00]
The potential impact of cyber technology on global conflict [38:45]
The foundation of Marc’s optimism [41:05]
M

34:11
introspection about government but also
34:12
about capitalism and capitalism so far
34:17
has depended on growth and growth is
34:19
something that VC’s pay attention to but
34:24
we’re now wondering if what’s the
34:27
minimum amount of growth that you might
34:28
need to have prosperity can you have
34:30
prosperity with low growth can you have
34:31
prosperity with fixed growth do you have
34:36
any insights about about that at the
34:38
civilizational scale yes I think in
34:40
actually I don’t even say that the issue
34:42
is even more intense these days because
34:43
there’s now very prominent people in
34:44
public life arguing that growth is bad
34:46
right and in fact it’s it that it that
34:49
it in fact is ruinous and destructive
34:50
and that the right goal might actually
34:51
be they have no growth or to actually go
34:52
into negative growth then especially in
34:54
a very common view in the environmental
34:56
movement so I’m a very strong proponent
34:59
a very strong believer that growth is
35:00
absolutely necessary and I’ll come back
35:02
to environmental thing in a second
35:03
because it’s a very interesting case of
35:04
this
I think growth is absolutely necessary
and I think the reason growth is
absolutely necessary is because you can
fundamentally have two different mindset
views of how the world works
right one
is positive some which is you know
rising tide lifts all boats we can all
do better together and the other is is
is a zero-sum right where for me to win
somebody else must lose
and vice-versa
and reason I think economic growth is so
important at cores because if there is
fast economic growth then we have
positive some politics and we start to
have all these discussions about all
these things that we can do as a society
and if we have zero some grow if we have
if we have a flat growth or no growth or
negative growth all of a sudden the
politics become sharply zero-sum and in
the most in the most the most you just
kind of see this if you kind of track
you know kind of the political climate
you just basically it’s the wake of
every recession right it’s just in the
wake of every economic recession the
politics just go like seriously negative
on in terms of thinking about the
world’s is zero-sum
and and then when
you get a zero-sum outlook Impala
six that’s when you get like
anti-immigration that’s when you get
anti trade
that’s when you get anti tech
if the world’s not growing then all
that’s left to do is to fight over what
we what we already have and so my view
is like you need to have economic growth
you need to have economic growth for all
of the reasons that I would say right
wingers like economic growth which is
you want to have higher levels material
prosperity more opportunity more job
creation all those things you want to
have economic growth for the purpose of
having like sane politics like a
productive political conversation and
then I think the kicker is you also want
economic growth actually for many of the
things that left-wing people want one of
the best books this year new books this
year is a guy Andrew McAfee I was
reading a book called
I think more from less it’s actually a
story of a really remarkable thing that
a lot of people are missing about what’s
happening with the environment which is
globally carbon emissions are rising and
resource utilization is rising in the
u.s. carbon emissions and resource
utilization are actually falling and so
in the u.s. we have figured out to grow
our economy while reducing our use of
natural resources which is a completely
unexpected twist right to the plot of
what kind of if you lose
environmentalists in six years of
seventies like nobody predicted that and
it turns out he talks about this in the
book but it turns out basically what
happens is economies when economies
advanced to a certain point they get
really really good at doing more with
less right they get really really good
efficiency and they get really good at
energy efficiency they get really isn’t
about you use environmental resources
they really go to recycling in lots of
different ways and then they get really
good at what’s called dematerialization
which is what is happening with digital
technology right which is basically
taking things that used to require atoms
and turning them into bits weight which
inherently consumes consumes less
resources and so what you actually want
like my view unlike the environmental
issues is like you’ve got a global
problem which is you have too many
people in too many countries stuck in
kind of mid amid the Industrial
Revolution they’ve got to grow to get to
the point where they’re in a fully
digital economy like we are precisely so
that they can start to have declining
resource utilization right right I mean
the classic example energy like you know
the big problem of the energy emissions
global a huge problem of emissions and
with health from emissions is literally
38:05
people burning wood like in their houses
38:07
right to be able to eat and cook and
38:09
what you want to do is you want to go to
38:10
like hyper efficient solar or ideally
38:12
nuclear right you want to go to these
38:13
like super advanced forms of technology
38:14
so actually it so you want
38:16
that and by the way if you want like a
38:18
big social safety net you know and all
38:20
the social programs you want to pay for
38:21
that stuff
38:22
you also want economic growth because
38:23
that generates taxes of pace of that
38:24
stuff and so like growth is the single
38:27
kind of biggest form of magic that we
38:28
have right to be able to like actually
38:30
make progress and hold the whole thing
38:31
together and you know to your point
38:33
about the developing countries I think
38:36
the idea of leapfrog and technology is a
38:37
myth it doesn’t really work you actually
38:39
have to if you want to have a high-tech
38:42
infrastructure you actually need the
38:43
intermediate roads clean water you can’t
38:46
skip over that and so they all need to
38:48
be built out in order to have that
38:50
prosperity at the end so you know the
38:53
simplest you know seems like you don’t
38:55
worry about much I don’t worry about
38:56
much but one thing I do worry about this
38:58
cyber conflict cyber war partly because
39:01
I think we have no consensus about
39:03
what’s allowable does this worry you at
39:06
all so I think there there’s a lot of
39:08
unknown as to it I think people are
39:09
trying to figure this out but it’s it’s
39:11
a complication to grapple with I will
39:14
make an optimistic argument which is
39:16
going to sound a little strange if you
39:20
kind of project forward what’s happening
39:21
with with generally cyber with
39:23
information you know operations of
39:25
different kinds but also with drones
39:27
you know UAVs and then also with you
39:30
know unmanned you know unmanned fighter
39:32
jets right um and you know ships
39:34
increasingly being built
39:36
it’ll be unmad submarines at some point
39:39
if you projected stuff forward you start
39:42
to get this very interesting potential
39:43
world in which basically the way I think
39:46
about it it’s like all human conflict
39:47
between peoples are between
39:49
nation-states up until now has been
39:51
basically throwing people at each other
39:52
right throwing soldiers at each other
39:54
and like letting them make the decision
39:56
of who to shoot and like hoping they
39:57
don’t get shot like with very serious
39:58
repercussions of all those individual
40:00
human decisions you do have the prospect
40:02
of basically a new world of both offense
40:04
and defense it’s like completely
40:05
motorised completely mechanized
40:06
completely software driven and
40:08
technology driven and a lot of people
40:09
it’s just immediately like oh my god
40:10
that’s horrible
40:11
you know Terminator like you know Skynet
40:13
like you know this is just the worst
40:14
thing ever there’s a novel called kill
40:16
decision if you wanted to snow Pinsky
40:18
okay there’s a novel called kill
40:19
decision by daniel suarez dinosaurus
40:21
then extrapolates the the drones forward
40:23
and a little it’ll keep you up late at
40:25
night but the optimistic view would be
40:26
like boy isn’t it good that there aren’t
40:29
beings involved isn’t it good like if
40:31
the machines are shooting at each other
40:32
like isn’t that good isn’t that better
40:34
than if they’re shooting at us by the
40:36
way and by the way yeah I would go so
40:37
far as to say like I don’t know that I’m
40:39
in favor of like the machines making
40:41
like kill decisions like decisions on me
40:43
to shoot but like the one thing I know
40:44
it’s humans do that very badly like very
40:46
very very badly I’m the opposite of
40:48
pearl war I don’t want to see any of
40:49
this stuff actually play out but if it
40:50
has to play out there maybe having it be
40:52
software machines it’s gonna be actually
40:53
better outcome right I mean this kind of
40:55
weird that we don’t allow we don’t want
40:58
machines to kill humans we want other
41:00
humans to kill you but we want 18 year
41:01
olds we want to take 18 year olds out of
41:04
their homes right we want to put a gun
41:05
in their hand and send them someplace
41:06
and tell me decide who to shoot like it
41:08
that that is gonna go down to history’s
41:10
haven’t been a good idea okay it just
41:12
strikes me as like unlikely so we have
41:14
only time for one last question which is
41:16
I’m usually I claim to be the most
41:18
optimistic person in the room but with
41:20
you sitting across to me I don’t think
41:22
that may be true what is your optimism
41:26
based on so my optimism okay so get
41:30
cosmic for a second why not I guess
41:32
we’re here it’s the last question last
41:33
question so the science fiction author
41:36
science fiction science fiction authors
41:37
always talking about was good they
41:39
called the singularity this constant
41:40
singularity answer it’s a singularities
41:42
basic what happens when the machines get
41:43
so smart than all of a sudden everything
41:45
goes into exponential mode and all of a
41:46
sudden you know the entire world changes
41:48
so I am I reading history is actually we
41:51
actually were in the singularity already
41:53
and that it actually started 300 years
41:56
ago mm-hmm and if you look at basically
42:00
if you look at basically any chart of
42:01
human welfare over time and you can look
42:03
at no child mortality is an obvious one
42:05
but like there’s you know there’s many
42:06
many many others and you just look at
42:08
progress on that metric so your telomere
42:09
tality as an example and it’s just
42:11
basically flat flat flat flat flat flat
42:12
flat for only fifty thousand years right
42:14
is everything and you know if this is
42:15
the family offices at Thomas Hobbes you
42:17
know life is you know nasty brutish and
42:19
short right it was just like the thing
42:20
like everything was terrible everywhere
42:22
all the time forever the end until 300
42:26
years ago when all of a sudden there’s
42:27
this me and the curve and then all the
42:29
indicators of human welfare not
42:31
uniformly across the planet but in
42:33
societies that we’re making progress the
42:37
societies weren’t making progress first
42:38
all of a sudden all those indicators of
42:39
human welfare went up into the right
42:40
right I don’t know of course bonded by
42:42
the way to economic growth but it was
42:44
also right it was the Enlightenment it
42:45
was the rise of democracy it was the
42:47
rise of markets was the rise of
42:48
rationality of the scientific method by
42:51
the way human rights free speech free
42:53
thought right and they all kind of
42:55
catalyzed right around around around 300
42:57
years ago and and they’ve been making
42:58
their way into the world you know in
42:59
sort of increasing concentric circles
43:01
kind of ever since and so we have you
43:04
know I would argue like we have the
43:05
answer it’s like we actually don’t need
43:07
new we don’t need new discoveries to
43:08
have the future be much better we
43:10
actually know how to do it is to apply
43:11
basically those systems and and and
43:15
basically contra the sort of constant
43:17
temptation from all kinds of people to
43:19
try to you know compromise on these
43:20
things or subvert these things you know
43:22
basically double down on these systems
43:23
that we know work right so double down
43:25
economic growth double down on human
43:26
rights double down on markets on
43:29
capitalism double down on the scientific
43:31
method fix science like we got as far as
43:34
we did with science actually being
43:35
pretty seriously screwed up right now
43:37
with the replication crisis like so we
43:39
should fix that and then science will
43:41
all of a sudden start to work much
43:42
better technology right used to yeah use
43:45
of technological tools so we should we
43:48
literally have the systems like we know
43:49
how to do this we know how to make the
43:50
planet much better in every respect and
43:52
so what we just need to do is is keep
43:53
doing that and then what I try to do
43:55
when I read the news is notwithstanding
43:58
everything’s going on is basically try
44:00
to look through whatever’s happen at the
44:01
moment try to look underneath and kind
44:02
of say okay are those fundamental
44:04
systems actually still working like is
44:07
the world getting more democratic or
44:08
less right this is free speech spreading
44:10
or receiving right or markets expanding
44:12
or falling right are more more people
44:14
able to participate in a modern market
44:15
economy or not and you know those
44:17
indicators generally are all or all
44:18
still up into the right mm-hmm
44:20
so let’s go out and make the world
44:22
better yeah thank you
44:23
thanks everybody
44:25
[Applause]

Universal Basic Income–For or Against? A Debate

Universal Basic Income–For or Against? A Debate: Karl Widerquist (Georgetown University-Qatar) and Oren Cass (Manhattan Institute) Wed., Oct. 30, 4:30 pm in Filene Auditorium

Wednesday, October 30, 2019
4:30am – 6:00pm
Filene Auditorium, Moore Building
Sponsored by: Political Economy Project

The idea of a government-guaranteed income for everyone has made a meteoric rise to prominence in just the last few years, in the United States and around the world. Karl Widerquist (Georgetown University-Qatar) and Oren Cass (Manhattan Institute) will debate the merits of this, one of the hottest policy proposals of our time.

 

ABOUT THE NBN BECOME AN NBN HOST LAUNCH AN NBN PODCAST PITCH US YOUR NEW BOOK! PARTNER WITH THE NBN Arts & Letters Peoples & Places Politics & Society Religion & Faith Science & Tech Books Received DONALD BERRY Glory in Romans and the Unified Purpose of God in Redemptive History

In this program, we discuss Glory in Romans and the Unified Purpose of God in Redemptive History (Pickwick Publications, 2016), a revision of Donald Berry’s doctoral dissertation. With this publication, Berry fills in a gap in Pauline studies, setting forth the glory of God as central to Paul’s theology. Not only does his book cover a significant motif in the New Testament, but it also provides crucial insights into the Epistle to the Romans and to the field of biblical theology. Donald Berry is a pastor at Christian Fellowship in Columbia, Missouri. He holds a Ph.D. in New Testament from Amridge University in Montgomery, AL, and an M.Div. from Southern Baptist Theological Seminary.

Jake Tapper fact-checks Rep. Jim Jordan on Ukraine scandal

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and CNN’s Jake Tapper get into a contentious exchange after the lawmaker makes accusations about Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son Hunter.

Why societies collapse | Jared Diamond

http://www.ted.com Why do societies fail? With lessons from the Norse of Iron Age Greenland, deforested Easter Island and present-day Montana, Jared Diamond talks about the signs that collapse is near, and how — if we see it in time — we can prevent it.

Tune Into The Real Ronald Reagan

There is nothing clandestine about Dugger’s quarry of new material, though Reagan’s staff has done its best to play it down. The material consists of transcripts of several hundred five-minute radio spots that Reagan broadcast after he left Sacramento in 1975; a series that ended the day he announced for president in 1979.

There can be no doubt whatever that these broadcasts express Reagan’s own personal, instinctive attitudes to the important foreign and domestic issues of the day, as opposed to cooler or more cautious or veiled attitudes he may have been advised to express then or later.

Reagan himself, in the last of the broadcasts, states that he wrote them all with his own hand. “I’ve scratched them out on a yellow tablet in airplanes, riding in cars, and at the ranch when the sun went down.”

They reveal him as perhaps a cleverer man than most reporters think he is. You may accept neither his premises nor his conclusions, but you will conclude, I submit, on reading these scripts, that Reagan writes better than you would expect. He has a sure sense of how an issue can be turned, sometimes twisted, to his advantage. And he has a real flair for one-liners.

The transcripts also reveal–and this is the heart of Dugger’s contention–a harder, nastier political style than that of the relaxed, tolerant personality Reagan has so carefully cultivated in the White House.

.. “He was presenting himself to the country as a moderate,” this is Dugger’s key charge, “but these transcripts show that deep down he was a hardline right-wing ideologue with fully formed and recently expressed prejudices on all of the outstanding issues of the day.”

.. The transcripts contain too much that supports this harsh judgment. All the clich,es of the Californian radical right are trotted out without inhibition.

Eighty per cent of air pollution,” the president believes, “comes not from chimneys and auto exhaust pipes but from plants and trees.” Banning pesticides like DDT leads to “political pollution.” Smoking pot leads to sterility.

.. The social attitudes revealed are uniformly indifferent to the old, the poor, the weak, and always coincide with the interests of the rich, corporations, and the financial Haves. The president is more moved by “the injustice done to Allan Bakke” than by the plight of those on welfare, and it is “demagoguery” to believe that income taxes should be progressive, that is, should increase with the size of incomes.

.. More surprising, and more unpleasant, is the president’s habit of using the sly, indirect way of the propagandist, using code language to suggest more than he quite says right out.

.. He does not explicitly advocate the death penalty, for example. That would sound too bloodthirsty. Instead he quotes with approval the father of a murdered man who says, “after two years the murderer of my son goes free, but my son is dead.” Because the late senator Joe McCarthy did not start to make his unsupported allegations about communists in government until after Alger Hiss had been charged with perjury, it does not follow, as Reagan implies, that those who oppose McCarthyism believe that the Cold War existed only in the minds of reactionaries.

.. There is a good deal of old-fashioned chauvinism to be found in the broadcasts. The Caribbean, Reagan concluded because Michael Manley was prime minister of Jamaica, “is rapidly becoming a communist lake in what should be an American pond.” What should be? The Caribbean basin? The Atlantic? The whole great gulf of ocean itself?

..”Maybe there is an answer–we simply do what’s morally right. Stop doing business with them. Let their system collapse.”

What if it doesn’t collapse?

.. Ronald Reagan is the leader of elements in the government who want the United States to obtain a first- strike capability

.. not all Reagan’s ideas are mistaken. His reaction against the New Deal, as Dugger says, would not have taken him to the White House unless it expressed authentic grievances, genuine second-thoughts about what had been accepted wisdom, real pain experienced by those who had not been preferred targets for the benevolence of the liberal system.

It is true. but that does not make the real Ronald Reagan, revealed behind the mask of amiability in his radio scripts, any less profoundly disturbing.