But the prime minister should have gone in harder. If she really wanted to teach Russia a lesson, she should have announced measures allowing her government to scrutinize the billions of dollars invested in Britain by Russian oligarchs and their associates, some of whom have criminal or intelligence backgrounds. This kind of transparency would hit President Vladimir Putin and his allies where it hurts most: their bank accounts.
To this day, anybody from Mexican cartels to Saudi arms dealers to Russian oligarchs (and even American real estate magnates) can invest money in Britain through anonymous companies registered in Crown Overseas Territories like the British Virgin Islands. In London’s central borough of Westminster alone, some 10,000 apartments and houses are owned by companies whose proprietors are entirely unknown to the government.
.. In 2016, Mrs. May’s predecessor, David Cameron, was preparing legislationto force anonymous companies to reveal their real owners. Then he lost the referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union.
.. Mrs. May probably has her reasons for not going forward with the law. She is the country’s weakest prime minister to assume office since World War II. Brexit has not only polarized public opinion but also created bitter divisions in her cabinet, and several ministers are open about their desire to take her place.
Because of this, she has had to handle the relationship with Russia after the murder attempt with great care. If she gets it wrong, her already enfeebled administration could collapse.
.. Mr. Putin may have realized how weak Mrs. May is, which is why he would decide to act now to take revenge on a man he sees as a traitor and to cause Britain new headaches.Russia’s motivation is understandable. Its economy faces serious structural problems, including a dangerous overreliance on oil and gas. At the same time, business leaders are worried about the country’s long-term demographic decline. Mr. Putin seeks to bolster his domestic popularity by looking powerful as he sows discord with the West... The government is reaping the dubious rewards of having opened the City of London since the late 1990s to foreign capital with no questions asked about its origin.The initial aim of this permissive approach was to persuade investors that London — rather than New York — was best suited to be the world’s financial capital. Among the many to take advantage of the light-touch regulations were oligarchs, spies and gangsters... Russian oligarchs have made an indelible mark on London. Some own newspapers, others our most successful soccer clubs, while many more own huge chunks of high-end property in the most fashionable parts of the capital... And some of those characters are close collaborators and friends of President Putin... If Mrs. May is convinced that Russia is behind this attack, then she needs to devise a way of getting to President Putin’s friends and collaborators. And that means great transparency. She should reintroduce the stalled proposal to force anonymous companies to reveal the sources of their cash.
State-run economies increasingly adore the free market
Angela Merkel warned against growing government intervention in international trade: “If we are of the opinion that things are simply not fair, then we have to seek multilateral answers and not pursue a unilateral protectionist course where we isolate ourselves.” She was largely defending the Washington Consensus , a catchall term that suggests politics and economics ought to inhabit separate spheres. This is the orthodoxy upon which the current international order is based.
But that consensus is coming apart because, more than ever, state-led capitalism works — and it is here to stay. China’s consolidation of its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), Russia’s oligarch-led economy, the proliferation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and growing government intervention in the West are clear indicators of state-led capitalism’s success.
.. Moscow is able to use these corporations for political ends: threatening gas supplies to keep European governments compliant, for instance, or directing energy revenue to finance military development.
.. The Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute reports that there are dozens of SWFs, including 24 created in the past decade, which collectively control more than $7 trillion in assets.
.. SWFs are an important feature of today’s global economic landscape; governments also use them as agents of statecraft. SWFs in the Persian Gulf region, for instance, are investing in Russia because of concerns about America’s regional staying power, and they are deepening ties with Muslim countries in Southeast Asia to ensure export markets and potentially to facilitate counter-radicalization initiatives.
.. And in the United States, President Trump has bragged that he personally influences firms’ decisions about where to place their factories... This is a dramatic reversal of the trend from two decades ago... But a number of factors led to skepticism about free markets. One was the underwhelming developmental effect of SAPs and liberalization.
A further blow to the neoliberal model was a series of financial disasters caused by unrestricted flows of capital, notably the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis.Perhaps the factor that has most undermined neoliberalism’s attractiveness, though, is the persistent power of countries with state-led economies, such as China and Russia... We are not seeing a “universalization of Western liberal democracy” and free-market capitalism, as Francis Fukuyama predicted
How Trump Can Harness the U.S. Energy Boom
The embrace of new technologies to extract oil and natural gas at an unprecedented rate has transformed one of America’s enduring vulnerabilities into a strategic asset. Thanks largely to fracking — hydraulic fracturing of rock — the United States is now the largest producer of oil and gas combined in the world. America consumes large quantities of energy, so this expanded production has not yet made the country energy independent. But it has greatly decreased its dependence on foreign energy: About a decade ago, the United States imported nearly two-thirds of the oil it consumed; that percentage is now closer to one-fifth.
.. an improved trade balance and a stronger economy. The boom has also improved the country’s sources of soft power, in part by underscoring America’s enduring edge in innovation and ingenuity.
.. American producers of oil from shale rock have introduced a new business model to the scene: Small investments in exploration and production can bring oil to the market quickly. This weakens OPEC, by making it more difficult for its production cuts to result in sustained increases in oil prices. For the first time in more than a century, the market determines the price of oil with much less influence from any cartel, commission or band of big oil companies.
.. The energy boom has also weakened many of America’s competitors, particularly Russia, by both decreasing its revenues and reducing its ability to use its energy resources as a political cudgel.
.. The boom also expands opportunities for the United States to forge new partnerships. For instance, given China’s growing dependence, and America’s waning reliance, on Middle Eastern oil, Beijing may be more likely to work with the United States to stabilize that part of the world. Such changes put America in a stronger position to reinforce the international order.
.. Many non-energy policies of the Trump administration undermine the energy boom and all its potential advantages.
.. On climate, Mr. Trump’s pledge to withdraw the United States from the Paris agreement could also hurt the American energy boom. Natural gas stands to gain as the world takes strides to tackle climate change: As countries transition to more sustainable energy, they often move away from coal to natural gas. American natural gas exports could benefit from this transition — but not if countries like China and India also weaken their commitment to tackling climate change and drag their heels in curbing coal consumption.
.. Mr. Trump’s talk of retrenchment overseas has made friends and foes nervous about America’s willingness to continue to use its vast sea power to maintain open shipping lanes. Over half of the world’s oil supply and a growing percentage of the natural gas it consumes is transported through these waterways.
.. Mexico is by far the largest foreign consumer of American natural gas — a trend that will increase with recent Mexican electricity reforms. Yet President Trump’s talk about a border wall has spurred a revival in the presidential candidacy of Mexico’s own populist, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is committed to reversing these and other energy reforms. That would not only shrink the largest market for American natural gas but would also dull prospects of the United States, Canada and Mexico of reaching North American energy independence.
Trump Has Putin over a Barrel
Senator John McCain said on a Sunday talk show that “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country.”
..But with energy prices falling, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has essentially been in a recession over the past four years. With oil at $50 a barrel or less, Russian budgets plunge deeper into debt. It’s even doubtful the Russians have enough money to upgrade their military-energy industrial complex.
.. Through crafty media relations and his own bravado, a deluded Putin struggles to maintain the illusion that Russia is a strong economic power. But it ain’t so. Not even close.
.. He said, “if we do not have strong families and strong values, then we will be weak and we will not survive.”
.. But in an absolutely key part of the speech, he took direct aim at Vladimir Putin’s energy bullying. Trump said, “We are committed to securing your access to alternative sources of energy so Poland and its neighbors are never again held hostage to a single supplier of energy.” Italics are all mine.
.. Trump wants America to achieve energy dominance. He withdrew from the costly Paris climate accord, which would have severely damaged the American economy. He directed the EPA to rescind the Obama Clean Power Plan, which would have led to skyrocketing electricity rates. He fast-tracked the Keystone XL pipeline. He reopened the door for a modernized American coal industry. He’s overturning all the Obama obstacles to hydraulic fracturing, which his presidential opponent Hillary Clinton would have dramatically increased. And he has opened the floodgates wide to energy exports.
.. Right now, U.S. oil reserves are almost in parity with those of Saudi Arabia. We have the second-most coal reserves in the world. There are enough U.S. gas reserves to last us a century. We have already passed Russia as the world’s top natural-gas producer. We are the world’s top producer of oil and petroleum hydrocarbons. And exports of liquified national gas are surging, with the Energy Department rapidly approving new LNG projects and other export terminals.
.. Trump made it clear that America’s energy dominance will be used to help our friends across Europe. No longer will our allies have to rely on Russian Gazprom supplies with inflated, prosperity-killing prices.
.. the businessman president fully intends to destroy Russia’s energy-market share. And as that takes hold, Russia’s gas-station economy will sink further.
.. And as that takes hold, bully-boy Putin will have to think twice about Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics. He’ll have to think twice about his anti-American policies in the Middle East and North Korea.