States have been lured away from coal by cheaper alternatives and an abundance of cleaner natural gas — market forces that are not easily manipulated by Trump’s policies. The rise of natural gas and decline of coal was partly responsible for falling CO2 emissions — 18 percent below projections made in 2008 by the Annual Energy Outlook.
“Regulation will play a modest role in the future,” said Mark Muro, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “But the main effect here is simply price. Gas and renewables are simply becoming cheaper than coal for many plants and many situations.”
TVA CEO: Clean Power Plan compliance, natural gas part of future strategy
President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on promises to revitalize the coal industry, but economic forces may be a bigger hurdle than regulation. According to the Times Free Press, the Clean Power Plan and the power sector’s slow transition to decarbonization aligns with TVA’s long-term strategy.
“We have been following a path that is consistent with the direction of the Clean Power Plan, but we’ve been following it based on what’s the best for our customers, and they happen to line up,” Johnson said. “We really have been following the plan that says if we modernize the fleet as we diversify, what is the best economic and rate path to follow? And that’s really what we will continue to do in every decision we make.”
Part of that plan includes an increasing reliance on natural gas, according to TVA’s IRP.
If prices remain under $4/MMBtu through 2030 and under $6/MMBtu after that, they would be “well in the money in the generation space,” he told Reuters. The utility’s future strategy leans heavily on natural gas as it moves away from coal plants.