C.I.A. Judgment on Russia Built on Swell of Evidence

Russian television, which is tightly controlled by the government, has generally portrayed Mr. Trump as a strong, friendly potential partner while often airing scathing assessments of Mrs. Clinton.

.. A senior American law enforcement official said the F.B.I. believed that the Russians probably had a combination of goals, including damaging Mrs. Clinton and undermining American democratic institutions. Whether one of those goals was to install Mr. Trump remains unclear to the F.B.I., he said.

.. Agents examined numerous possible connections between Russians and members of Mr. Trump’s inner circle, including former Trump aides like Paul Manafort and Carter Page, as well as a mysterious and unexplained trail of computer activity between the Trump Organization and an email account at a large Russian bank, Alfa Bank.

 

Exxon Mobil Chief Rises as Trump’s Choice for Secretary of State

As Exxon’s top official, Mr. Tillerson has extensive experience working with foreign leaders. Some of his foreign relationships, especially those with Russia, could come under particular scrutiny during a Senate confirmation hearing.

.. Mr. Tillerson has worked to strengthen Exxon Mobil’s ties with Russia. The company has various joint ventures with the oil giant Rosneft around Russia,

.. In 2012, the Russian government awarded Mr. Tillerson the country’s Order of Friendship decoration.

.. Western sanctions against Russia prohibiting the nation from certain energy development activities have slowed Exxon Mobil’s investments

.. In addition, Exxon Mobil has close connections with the Qatari national oil company

.. Mr. Tillerson assumed the role of chairman and chief executive of Exxon Mobil on Jan. 1, 2006. During his tenure, the company has acknowledged the science underlying climate change and said it supports a carbon tax. It has also expressed support for the Paris climate agreement.

.. while Exxon Mobil and its representatives had been careful to say they supported the Paris agreement, under which nearly every nation has agreed to reduce emissions, “a read of their public energy assessments make it clear they have no intention of helping the world meet that target or adjust their business plans in that direction.”

Once Upon a Time in America

Russian journalists belonging to the nationalist camp are somewhat confused. Although they advertised Trump for several months, his victory was not only unexpected, but also struck a blow at their worldview, since according to it Trump just could not win. The more correct his ideology was from the point of view of a Russian conservative, the fewer chances he had to achieve success in the corrupt liberal America.

.. The victory of an outsider, who opposed the establishment and the financial capital, proves that democracy exists in the US, even if it is limited by the size of the candidate’s bank account. But acceptance of this fact shatters the whole propagandist concept. Our conservatives did not criticize the power of money, they rather criticized the power of the liberal media establishment propped up by the might of the deep state, which decided not to allow a Trump presidency. Now they have to admit that either the deep state does not exist, or it is not as potent as they were trying to prove…

.. Trump’s victory is not a result of an unpleasant coincidence; it is a result of a systemic social-economic crisis due to the fact that the current capitalist model of development is completely exhausted. It is not that the system will collapse because of the Trump’s success, but rather his success is caused by the collapse of the system.

.. he won precisely because their time has gone, their methods and strategies stopped working. The public opinion was just a reflection, albeit a delayed one, of the changes in the economics and the real world.

.. It still may happen that it will be Russia controlled by oil tycoons that will stand as a last bastion of economic liberalism. But even here the positions of the ruling class will be weakening under the pressure from the new realities of the world markets.

.. if he will be even partially successful in fulfilling his promises and plans, it will not cancel the urgency of a large scale social modernization, including creation of universal and affordable healthcare and education systems, extension ofthe trade union rights, and expansion of the public sector. On the contrary, the economic growth will make these demands more convincing and popular, and will strengthen social movements advocating for the reforms.

Trade unions, workers’ movements and wage-earners feel much more confident in the conditions of the economic growth. The conflicts will not be fading away, they will grow.

.. Both Bernie Sanders’ campaign, and voting for Trump, demonstrated, the last one to a higher degree, that the lower classes of the society are willing to consolidate, independently from the appeals of the self-proclaimed “defenders of the minorities”.

An African-American laborer realizes that he has much more in common with a “white male” laborer than with a privileged liberal smugly reasoning about the need for political correctness. A single mother fighting for survival understands how alien are the interests and the views of a feminist who distributes multimillion gender related grants among her friends and clients.

.. The 2016 elections signified the collapse of the politics of political correctness, and created the preconditions of its substitution by the politics of solidarity.

The Essence of Putin’s Managed Democracy

Managed democracy controls society while providing the appearance of democracy. Its main characteristics are as follows:
1. A strong presidency and weak institutions
2. State control of the media
3. Control over elections allows elites to legitimize their decisions
4. Visible short-term effectiveness and long-term inefficiency
The result is an “unstable stability” based on the president’s personality. He is actually a hostage of the system.

This system is highly dysfunctional, with poor information flows. Everything beneath the president is vertically integrated, but there are no horizontal connections. Smart guys make bad decisions and nobody has the big picture. Meanwhile the gap between personal, corporate, and systemic interests is growing, so it’s hard to make different elements of the system act in concert. Obedience is the first measure of performance and that creates perverse incentives. For example, a regional governor has an incentive to obey the center, but no incentive to make his region succeed.

As for the electoral system, it’s not that bad—it’s worse. The center can legally exclude any candidate.

.. The chaos there reveals the state’s short time horizon: nobody is interested in a long-term strategy.