Trump and North Korea: A Looming Foreign Policy Crisis

As I have written before, the North Koreans are serious about building a nuclear deterrent and we are not serious about stopping them.

.. He figured Washington actually wanted Pyongyang to have nuclear weapons so it could tighten its alliances with South Korea and Japan.

.. North Korea has methodically plotted and implemented a strategy of building missiles and warheads using the political shield of China

.. Sunday’s launch of a new but short-range ballistic missile able only to reach South Korea and Japan may have been the least provocative provocation that North Koreans could devise.

.. There will be a price to pay, of course. In the near-term, it may require lifting sanctions, eventually replacing the temporary armistice ending the Korean War with a permanent peace treaty, signifying the end of enmity and of what the North Koreans call Washington’s “hostile policy.”

.. we may be on the cusp of the Trump administration’s first major foreign policy crisis, with last Sunday’s missile test only the first in a series of missiles and nuclear weapons tests. Unless Washington quickly formulates a strategy for dealing with Pyongyang — that includes not only sanctions and protecting our allies but diplomatic outreach to the North — it is going to be a rough ride.

Are You Not Alarmed?

Last week, Trump’s secretary of state nominee, Rex Tillerson, said during his confirmation hearing that the United States had to “send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops, and second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.”

The only way to do this is with some sort of naval blockade, which China would undoubtedly interpret as an act of war.

.. Trump’s talk on trade alone could escalate into an armed conflict with China. Trump has said he will make continued adherence to the “one China” policy — which recognizes Beijing as the sole government of China — conditional on negotiations over what he sees as currency manipulation and other unfair trade practices by China.

.. during the campaign Trump suggested that the way to contain North Korea was for nuclear proliferation in the region. In March, Trump said of nuclear weapons: “You have so many countries already — China, Pakistan, you have so many countries, Russia — you have so many countries right now that have them.” He continued: “Now, wouldn’t you rather, in a certain sense, have Japan have nuclear weapons when North Korea has nuclear weapons?”

Then there is the destabilizing and downright frightening random rhetoric. Trump has suggested that he equally trusts America’s friend-in-arms Angela Merkel and his friend-in-spirit Vladimir Putin.

Trump told The Washington Post this week that he may start having military parades in major American cities à la North Korea: “Being a great president has to do with a lot of things, but one of them is being a great cheerleader for the country.” He continued: “And we’re going to show the people as we build up our military, we’re going to display our military. That military may come marching down Pennsylvania Avenue. That military may be flying over New York City and Washington, D.C., for parades. I mean, we’re going to be showing our military.”