The main risk is incoherence and accidents, not a foreign policy revolution.
The risk with Trump is less that he will pursue a grand strategy that causes problems than that he will have no coherent strategy at all.
.. Trump has few if any fixed policy positions or beliefs. To be sure, he has been fairly consistently opposed to free trade, in favor of greater “burden-sharing,” admiring of strongmen and obsessed with getting along with Russia. But beyond that—and probably even including that—everything for Trump is negotiable, if not disposable. Throughout his long public career, he has taken both sides of just about every conceivable position, from abortion, health care, and gun control to the merits of Bill and Hillary Clinton or even his own status as a Democrat or a Republican. On the invasion of Iraq—the biggest foreign policy decision in generations—he was initially in favor of the war, then passionately against the war, then in favor of a total and immediate withdrawal, and then deeply critical of such a withdrawal. On Libya, he recorded a video presentation in February 2011 strongly advocating in great detail the very sort of military intervention President Barack Obama undertook a month later, before making opposition to that intervention and its consequences a core campaign against Clinton.
.. Trump has few if any fixed policy positions or beliefs. To be sure, he has been fairly consistently opposed to free trade, in favor of greater “burden-sharing,” admiring of strongmen and obsessed with getting along with Russia. But beyond that—and probably even including that—everything for Trump is negotiable, if not disposable. Throughout his long public career, he has taken both sides of just about every conceivable position, from abortion, health care, and gun control to the merits of Bill and Hillary Clinton or even his own status as a Democrat or a Republican. On the invasion of Iraq—the biggest foreign policy decision in generations—he was initially in favor of the war, then passionately against the war, then in favor of a total and immediate withdrawal, and then deeply critical of such a withdrawal. On Libya, he recorded a video presentation in February 2011 strongly advocating in great detail the very sort of military intervention President Barack Obama undertook a month later, before making opposition to that intervention and its consequences a core campaign against Clinton.
.. Trump has few if any fixed policy positions or beliefs. To be sure, he has been fairly consistently opposed to free trade, in favor of greater “burden-sharing,” admiring of strongmen and obsessed with getting along with Russia. But beyond that—and probably even including that—everything for Trump is negotiable, if not disposable. Throughout his long public career, he has taken both sides of just about every conceivable position, from abortion, health care, and gun control to the merits of Bill and Hillary Clinton or even his own status as a Democrat or a Republican. On the invasion of Iraq—the biggest foreign policy decision in generations—he was initially in favor of the war, then passionately against the war, then in favor of a total and immediate withdrawal, and then deeply critical of such a withdrawal. On Libya, he recorded a video presentation in February 2011 strongly advocating in great detail the very sort of military intervention President Barack Obama undertook a month later, before making opposition to that intervention and its consequences a core campaign against Clinton.
.. will a President Trump really tell NATO allies—as he suggested during the campaign—that U.S. treaty commitments to their defense are not valid unless they all start spending more on their own defense, thus potentially putting in question all U.S. defense commitments all around the world? Or will he instead seek out harmony and popularity among allies at an early 2017 NATO summit and declare victory by pointing to the recent increases in European defense spending as the result of his brilliant diplomacy
.. If such flip-flops seem implausible, or impossible to sell to his supporters with a straight face, keep in mind that
- in the three weeks since his election Trump has already publicly concluded that humans might be responsible for climate change after all (having previously argued this was a “hoax”),
- that there were some parts of Obamacare worth preserving (something he discovered in a short conversation with President Obama),
- and that torture and waterboarding may not work after all (something he was “surprised” to learn in a discussion with Mattis, whose views were apparently not made available to candidate Trump when he was passionately arguing the opposite).
.. his lack of core convictions, choice of top advisers with different views, willingness to publicly contradict himself, and pathological craving for success and public approval give him both the incentive and the means to back away from some of his riskiest public positions.
.. his lack of core convictions, choice of top advisers with different views, willingness to publicly contradict himself, and pathological craving for success and public approval give him both the incentive and the means to back away from some of his riskiest public positions.
Oil Industry Anticipates Day of Reckoning
Prospect of ‘peak demand’ prompts debate and long-term planning by global producers
.. The Hungarian company is rethinking its traditional focus on fuel supply and shifting investment to petrochemicals, the key ingredient of everyday plastic products and a sector where MOL believes growth will continue even when its fuel business falters... But that picture shifts radically if governments take further action to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius with more stringent policies like carbon pricing, strict emissions limits and the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies. If that happens, oil demand could peak within the next 10 years, the IEA says... BP says oil demand could fall by the late 2020s if tougher emissions laws are enacted... Others don’t see peak demand coming so quickly. Exxon expects consumption to grow through 2040, though at a decelerating pace. Likewise, OPEC sees demand continuing to grow beyond 2040, but acknowledges new technologies and efforts to curb climate change could mean consumption peaks within the next three decades... Peak demand “will be later than the common dates that are being thrown around, but if it does happen, because we’re building multiple engines for the economy and we’re planning for an economy beyond oil, we’ll be ready,” Saudi Arabia’s energy minister,Khalid al Falih, told a conference in Istanbul last month... Shell, Exxon and others are pouring money into natural gas—a less-carbon-intensive fossil fuel they bet will benefit from efforts to curb global emissions. In China, where growing oil demand has supported global markets for years, the state-owned energy giants are aggressively embracing natural gas as a fuel for use in everything from power generation to running cars... France’s Total SA has said it wants 20% of its portfolio to consist of low-carbon businesses within the next 20 years.
Donald Trump, Help Heal the Planet’s Climate Change Problem
Please revisit your claim that climate change is a hoax.
Nothing would get the attention of your opponents more than if you declared your intent to take a fresh look at the climate issue. It would force many of them to give you a second look — and virtually none of your supporters would care, because few voted for you on this issue
.. Speaking of kids, Mr. Trump, yours run your golf course business. Surely they’ve mentioned that Doral will be your first course threatened by global warming, because parts of Miami are already flooding due to sea-level rise from melting ice. According to The Real Deal, which covers South Florida real estate news, “Parts of Miami Beach could be inundated with floodwaters in as little as 15 years.” That would make your oceanside courses into ocean-floor courses.
.. When you visit the Pentagon, ask the generals about climate change. Here’s what they’ll tell you: A majority of immigrants flooding Europe today are not coming from Syria or Iraq. Three-quarters are from arid zones in central Africa, where the combination of climate change and runaway population growth are making small-scale farming unsustainable.
.. I followed a group of these refugees from Senegal through Niger on their way to Libya and Europe. Thousands make this trek every month. The same thing will happen in our hemisphere
.. You can’t ignore climate change and think you have an immigration policy.
.. There is a better way — for you. You can frame the entire shift in your position in terms of free-market economics.
.. “That compares to about 6 cents for a new natural gas power plant, and double that for new coal. And remember: Commodity costs — coal, oil, gas — fluctuate, but technology costs — wind, solar, LEDs — follow irreversible trends downward,
.. Is your strategy to keep America addicted to coal and scuttle our lead in clean tech .. so we can import clean energy systems from India and China?
Trump’s Climate Contrarian: Myron Ebell Takes On the E.P.A.
The mug-shot posters, pasted on walls and lampposts around Paris by an activist group during the United Nations climate talks last year, were hardly flattering. They depicted Myron Ebell, a climate contrarian, as one of seven “climate criminals” wanted for “destroying our future.”
.. “I’ve gotten used to this over the years,” he told an interviewer at the talks. “But I did go out and get my photo taken with my poster, just so I have it as a memento.”
.. He got his undergraduate degree at Colorado College and master’s at the London School of Economics, where he studied under the conservative political philosopher Michael Oakeshott. He has described himself as “sort of a contrarian by nature and upbringing,” and has said he was very strongly influenced by the “question authority” ethos of 1960s and ’70s counterculture
.. Mr. Ebell did not deny Mr. Symons’ assertion that the Competitive Enterprise Institute receives money from the Murray Energy Corporation, one of the nation’s largest coal producers.