How Democrats could bring down Obamacare repeal

Senate Democrats want House conservatives to think twice before supporting Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare repeal bill — because Democrats believe they can strip out key provisions used to woo the right when the bill comes over to the Senate.

.. They plan to argue to the Senate parliamentarian that language that allows states to impose work requirements for Medicaid coverage and prohibits tax credits from being used on insurance coverage of abortion is not allowed.

.. the so-called “Byrd Rule” that restricts reconciliation bills from “extraneous” matters and provisions that don’t affect the budget.

.. The Family Research Council has already warned Republican lawmakers that the abortion prohibition is likely to get eliminated by Byrd rules because it does not have a pure budgetary impact.

.. Key House Republicans say it will be much more difficult to support the legislation without the work requirements and the abortion restriction.

.. Ted Cruz of Texas and Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), argue that the Senate should ignore any ruling from the parliamentarian that limits red meat additions to the repeal bill. But Senate leaders appear unwilling to consider such an explosive move, which could essentially eliminate the filibuster.

.. Anti-abortion groups raised concerns that there was no way to restrict the HSA money from covering abortion and comply with Byrd rules.

Why does Trump keep making promises he can’t keep? The secret lies in his past.

the location provided a vivid case study in the dangers Trump will face as time goes on. This early in his presidency, he can still talk about the glittering future he’ll deliver. But at some point, he’ll have to reckon with what his policies have actually done and failed to do.

Trump is applying to governing the same theory that worked quite well for him in his business career. But the rules have already changed for him.

.. the Republican health-care bill will save Americans from the catastrophe of the Affordable Care Act. But it’s an odd thing to say in Kentucky, which may have fared better than any other state under the ACA. The state accepted the law’s expansion of Medicaid and saw an additional 443,000 of its citizens — a full 10 percent of the state’s population — get health coverage at no cost. The state also launched its own ACA exchange, Kynect, which was one of the most successful in the country. According to Gallup, the uninsured rate fell from 20.4 percent in 2013 before the law took effect down to 7.8

.. But hey, who needs Medicaid or subsidized health coverage if you’ve got a great job mining coal, where salaries are high and benefits are comprehensive? Trump repeated that promise, too — that once we get rid of some environmental regulations, all those coal jobs will come back:

.. In his particular corner of the business world, you really can create wealth just by managing public perception — or at least he could. This was the theory of his entire career

.. When he conned someone, like the attendees of Trump University, no matter how unhappy they were he could move on to other marks

.. It was a big world, and there were always other people who might be taken in by the next scam. But in politics, you have to go back to the people you made promises to the first time around, and ask them to put their faith in you again.

.. it’s obvious that Trump looks at his first legislative priority much like one of his buildings: What matters is that people think it’s the tallest one around, even if it isn’t. He doesn’t seem to know or care much about what’s in the GOP’s bill to repeal the ACA or what the effects would be. It’s just about getting a win one way or the other.

.. he met with congressional Republicans not to discuss the content of the bill, but to cajole and threaten them into voting for it. He told Mark Meadows, head of the far-right Freedom Caucus, to stand up while he told him, “I’m gonna come after you, but I know I won’t have to, because I know you’ll vote ‘yes.’ ” (Meadows says he’s still voting no.)

.. So what happens when Trump goes back to Kentucky in three years, and he has taken away voters’ health coverage but didn’t manage to bring back the coal jobs of yesteryear?

Why Paul Ryan needs Donald Trump so badly

This proposal was crafted trying to thread a needle between two competing corners of the House GOP Conference: the far-right blockade and a much larger, less vocal crowd from states where their governors accepted the expanded Medicaid provision in the 2010 ACA.

Some Freedom Caucus folks have been strenuously opposed to the proposed tax credits for purchasing insurance, saying it’s a new form of entitlement, and many want to more quickly phase out the Medicaid expansion

.. If Trump ever fully leans into this legislation, giving it the full-forced endorsement that he’s proven capable of on other issues, Ryan and House GOP leaders believe that the conservative opposition will dissolve quickly.

.. not once but twice he said he wouldn’t sign any bill that “didn’t take care of our people.”

.. Some politicians let bygones be bygones if they win ([Chuck] Schumer is very much like this; he wins, there’s no grudge held, it’s water under the bridge). Trump strikes me as someone who holds grudges, but I’m not certain.

.. But if this disintegrates, if there’s no repeal of Obamacare, it’s bad, very bad, for both men – and what it does to their relationship for the next few years.

.. most House Republicans are more afraid of not approving a bill to repeal Obamacare, any bill to repeal Obamacare, regardless of its fate in the Senate, than to simply do nothing.

.. The way the districts are drawn, the way the funding mechanisms of campaigns now work, the activism of the two bases of the parties – it all pushes members to the extreme.  They now act almost entirely at the behest of their base rather than what they believe is the right thing for the country.

.. McConnell has to come up with his own bill that will tilt more friendly to the [Rob]Portman/[Shelley Moore] Capito crowd, which might upset Ted Cruz and Mike Lee but I’m still not certain that in the end Cruz is willing to be the guy who blocks Donald Trump’s first big initiative.

..  I think the two worst character traits in today’s Congress are fear and contentment.
.. You just have to be willing to work hard, willing to go home as much as possible to explain yourself and to run a really disciplined, well-funded campaign if you get a primary. Folks like Lamar Alexander, Lindsey Graham, Tom Cole, Jack Reed, Frank Pallone — these are are all people who’ve done more than their fair share of bipartisan deals in the Senate and House. Some have faced down tough primary elections.

They’re all still here. 

.. The “contentment” character trait is that too many lawmakers are content with what they have: a tiny fiefdom. They’d rather not rock the boat because that means they might have to work really hard to win re-election.

.. The biggest change that I’ve seen over those years is the shrinking number of leaders on Capitol Hill; not the actual elected leaders, but the men and women in the rank-and-file who commanded the policy brigade and through the sheer force of their character made themselves players. They weren’t afraid and they weren’t content.