He needs to best Romney with white men and turn a few reliably blue Rust Belt states red.
To reach 270, Trump’s team is aiming to capture America’s Rust Belt — specifically, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — where polls generally show him performing better than Mitt Romney did at this point in 2012.
.. If he can capture Florida and keep North Carolina — the 2012 red state of the lightest hue — a strong showing that includes capture of the Rust Belt could, Trump’s team believes, put him over the top.
.. On Thursday, Trump reportedly told donors during a meeting that he thinks he can put New Jersey and Maryland in play as well
.. “Never in modern history have we seen two nominees who have an unfavorable rating over 50 percent,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster in Washington. “We’re truly in uncharted waters trying to use history to determine what’s going to happen in this campaign.”
.. “Right now, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida look very close because she’s having a hard time getting Sanders supporters on board,”
.. Pennsylvania is increasingly viewed as Trump’s best pickup chance — the state that, provided he wins Ohio and Florida, could get him to 270.
.. Trump won the Pennsylvania primary but saw his vote total in those swing suburban counties come in 25 points lower than his support in the western part of the state that borders Appalachia, where he won close to 8 in 10 votes in some places.
“For him to win here, he really needs to do better in the suburban counties
.. “But especially with older, Catholic white voters, Trump’s talk about trade policy is hitting home, so there is more of an opportunity — in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
.. “Fair trade versus free trade is a very hot issue in Michigan with all the manufacturing,”
.. “Trump will probably do better amongst Reagan Democrats, African-Americans and blue-collar workers than Romney did,” he continued. “But Romney probably did better with independents than Trump will.”
Clinton to Unleash TV hell on Trump
And, roughly one month before Republicans gather for their convention, Trump’s political operation shows no signs of being ready to respond to the flood that could easily cost three times as much cash as he has on hand — just $2.4 million, as of his last federal report.
.. “I’m of the opinion that the whole thing comes down to June. It’s the last month when kids are still in school, people are still paying attention and minds are open before everyone tunes out for summer vacation,” explained David Cohen, a Democratic strategist who led battleground budget planning for Obama in 2008. “The important piece is you’ve got to communicate in that window so that they can start to build up their messaging before everybody tunes out.”
.. “I’m of the opinion that the whole thing comes down to June. It’s the last month when kids are still in school, people are still paying attention and minds are open before everyone tunes out for summer vacation,” explained David Cohen, a Democratic strategist who led battleground budget planning for Obama in 2008. “The important piece is you’ve got to communicate in that window so that they can start to build up their messaging before everybody tunes out.”
.. “I’m of the opinion that the whole thing comes down to June. It’s the last month when kids are still in school, people are still paying attention and minds are open before everyone tunes out for summer vacation,” explained David Cohen, a Democratic strategist who led battleground budget planning for Obama in 2008. “The important piece is you’ve got to communicate in that window so that they can start to build up their messaging before everybody tunes out.”
.. “I’m of the opinion that the whole thing comes down to June. It’s the last month when kids are still in school, people are still paying attention and minds are open before everyone tunes out for summer vacation,” explained David Cohen, a Democratic strategist who led battleground budget planning for Obama in 2008. “The important piece is you’ve got to communicate in that window so that they can start to build up their messaging before everybody tunes out.”
There Is No Trump Campaign
But not only has Trump set his sights on winning his home state, he’s also hired a pollster to assist him. Not just any pollster: He’s reportedly hired John McLaughlin, infamous for working on Eric Cantor’s primary campaign in 2014, when the then-House majority leader lost to upstart Dave Brat. McLaughlin’s internal polling heading into the race showed Cantor leading by 34 points.
.. For most intents and purposes, there appears to be no Trump campaign.
.. Back in April, with Trump’s campaign faltering, he laid off scads of staffers in early states, whereas Clinton has maintained her organization, laying groundwork for the general.
.. There’s a vicious cycle at work here, which is that as donors see the Trump campaign in chaos, they’re unwilling to fork over their hard-earned cash. Why back a candidate who’s rending the Republican Party apart, doesn’t follow conservative orthodoxy, and seems to have no idea what he’s doing with the money?
.. “There’s no reason to raise [$1 billion],” Trump told Bloomberg. “I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them.” In an interview with The New York Times, he cited social media as a replacement: “He noted that he is nearing the ability to reach 20 million people by himself through his personal Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, providing an alternative way to reach the public, even if it’s largely a one-way conversation.”
.. “There’s no reason to raise [$1 billion],” Trump told Bloomberg. “I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them.” In an interview with The New York Times, he cited social media as a replacement: “He noted that he is nearing the ability to reach 20 million people by himself through his personal Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts, providing an alternative way to reach the public, even if it’s largely a one-way conversation.”
The Id That Ate the Planet
rapid technological progress in renewable energy is making nonsense — or maybe I should say, further nonsense — of another bad argument against climate action, the claim that nothing can be done about greenhouse gas emissions without crippling the economy. Solar and wind power are getting cheaper each year, and growing quickly even without much in the way of incentives to switch away from fossil fuels. Provide those incentives, and an energy revolution would be just around the corner.
.. There are some men — it’s almost always men — who become enraged at any suggestion that they must give up something they want for the common good. Often, the rage is disproportionate to the sacrifice: for example, prominent conservatives suggesting violence against government officials because they don’t like the performance of phosphate-free detergent. But polluter’s rage isn’t about rational thought.