Point is, 11 years ago, the basis for a Trump-like candidacy was there. A candidate that was broadly socially conservative, favored government programs but was broadly skeptical of government, and broadly wary of big business: that was where the great center of American politics was.
Nobody could really take advantage of it. The parties were too ideologically rigid, and redistricting favored the most ideologically rigid candidates.
.. First, Steadfast Conservatives take very conservative views on key social issues like homosexuality and immigration, while Business Conservatives are less conservative – if not actually progressive – on these issues. Nearly three-quarters of Steadfast Conservatives (74%) believe that homosexuality should be discouraged by society. Among Business Conservatives, just 31% think homosexuality should be discouraged; 58% believe it should be accepted.
.. The Steadfast Conservatives (15% of the overall electorate) are much more likely than the Business Conservatives (12% overall) to back Trump, it would appear. But if you look further into the typology, you’ll find the single largest group, at 16%, is the Faith and Family Left — basically, pro-government, skeptical of business, but also religiously conservative.
.. And are you beginning to see why the gatekeepers on the GOP side — the party insiders, the think tanks, the conservative media — were able to keep any candidate who might have appealed to the middle, against the interests of Business Conservatives, from getting through?
Until along came someone so rich he didn’t have to depend on party donors and insiders to promote his political career. Those voters were there, but there was no way for Republican politicians within the system to speak to them, and for them.
.. the leadership of the Republican Party and the old conservative movement is, itself, culturally cosmopolitan. I doubt if many top Republican consultants interact with many Young Earth Creationists on a regular basis. Many quietly cheered the Supreme Court’s gay marriage decisions. Most of them live in blue megapolises, most come from middle-class families and attended elite institutions, and a great many of them roll their eyes at the various cultural excesses of “the base.” There is, in other words, a court/country divide among Republicans.
.. So the Republicans offer up candidates who are from cosmopolitan America, who have their speeches written by speechwriters from cosmopolitan American, who have their images created by consultants from cosmopolitan America, and who develop their issue positions in office buildings located in cosmopolitan America. Then they wonder why the base isn’t excited. Say what you will about George W. Bush, but a large part of why he was successful was that he didn’t talk like your average D.C. denizen.
.. Cosmopolitan America sees a strong, moral – frankly ideological – interest in accepting refugees from Syria. Traditionalist America thinks that after Paris, this is insane.
.. All of this is a lengthy way of saying that Trump is a creation of the Republican establishment, which is frankly uncomfortable with many of its own voters, and which mostly seeks to “manage” them.
A Trump-Cruz Race Forces Republican Elites to Choose Sides
Siding against Cruz at this point is foolish for them only if these party leaders have profound ideological disagreements with Trump, but they are assuming they don’t have any because they believe Trump is conning his voters. That also happens to be Cruz’s argument against Trump, and so these party leaders are ending up more on Trump’s side in part because they think Cruz is right about Trump’s phoniness.
Donald Trump, Holy Fool?
If the government doesn’t subsidize the health care of very poor people, those people are more likely to suffer from preventable health problems. When poor people’s preventable health problems become severe, they go to hospitals, where they rack up bills they can’t afford to pay. That leads hospitals to increase charges to those who can pay, like the government. Thus, in many cases, it costs more over the long term to withhold health-care subsidies than to provide them. The only way for the government to completely wash its hands of sick poor people would be to deny the indigent access to hospitals and allow them to die in the streets.
How Trump Is Romancing the Christian Right
Evangelical leaders have lost control of their flocks.
Russell Moore, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention, suggested Evangelicals who are drawn to Trump have been seduced by “the other side of the culture war, that image and celebrity and money and power and social Darwinist ‘winning’ trump the conservation of moral principles and a just society.”
.. Historically, “[Evangelicals] have been told by their leadership that the problem is liberals,” Bean said, “their culturally liberal ways, their cultural Marxism, whatever you want to call it.
.. Trump is more than willing to point out how business leaders are manipulating politicians and selling out average Americans
.. “They didn’t really ever do a good job in insisting on any distinctive Christian character in their leaders. They were usually determined to be good partners in the Republican coalition, which meant they would endorse anyone who was a strong Republican, and they would play along. It started with Reagan: Reagan is a Godly man over Jimmy Carter. But I don’t know of any way Reagan out-Christianed Jimmy Carter.
.. With that nerve severed, Evangelical voters are free to gravitate to whichever candidate is providing the most cogent reflection of their anxieties, and Trump, with his vivid account of the fall of the white American middle class, appears to be that candidate.