we’ll add 10 points to her current polls-only margin in every state to forecast her performance if women were the only ones who could vote. In addition to the states where Clinton is already leading Trump, that would put her ahead in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and the 2nd congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Clinton would win 458 electoral votes to just 80 for Trump
.. If men were the only voters, conversely, we’d have to subtract 10 points from Clinton’s current margin in every state — which would yield an awfully red map. Trump would win everything that could plausibly be called a swing state, with Clinton hanging on only to the West Coast, parts of the Northeast, Illinois and New Mexico. That would yield 350 electoral votes for Trump to 188 for Clinton:
The Election is still Hillary Clinton’s to Lose
Among respondents the pollsters deemed “likely voters” that was true: the poll showed Trump at forty-four per cent, and Clinton at forty-two per cent. But among the broader pool of registered voters, Clinton was still ahead, forty-four per cent to forty-one per cent.
Essentially, the pollsters screened out some of Clinton’s supporters because they didn’t adjudge them likely to turn out on November 8th.
.. Asked to choose the most honest and trustworthy candidate, just thirty-five per cent of respondents picked her, and fifty per cent chose her opponent.
.. To many Americans, the election has come down to a choice between the unpalatable and the unthinkable.
FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast
Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
Why the Republican Convention Is So Mean
Both parties are trying to convince undecided voters that their candidate is the lesser of two evils.
- .. Both campaigns think their path to victory is to win almost by default—to make their rival the most feared alternative.
.. When asked to choose between the two, 26 percent chose Trump, 19 percent chose Clinton, and 44 percent were undecided.
.. Accusing Clinton of murder, comparing her to the devil, and dredging up the Monica Lewinsky scandal represents the type and tone of politics that has pushed these voters out of the two major parties and into the “undecided” category. Yet Trump and his surrogates can’t seem to help themselves.