She also said that she was prepared to walk away from the negotiations if Britain didn’t get what it wanted, in which case the country would crash out of the E.U. with no agreement at all. She said “no deal” was preferable to “a bad deal for Britain.” That language went over well with the Daily Mail and the Sun, but it really amounted to the Prime Minister putting a gun to her head and threatening to shoot. As a negotiating ploy, it failed miserably.
The leaders of the E.U., meanwhile, want to discourage other member countries from following the U.K.’s example, and appear increasingly determined to impose a harsh deal on London.
.. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, was asked if there was any leeway to reach a friendly arrangement with Britain. “Some things are not for sale,” she said, indicating that the U.K. would not receive any concessions that undermined the free movement of goods and people within the E.U.
The dapper Frenchman running for president as the best bet against the far right
Macron is fundamentally pro-Europe at a time when his mainstream opponents have been critical of Brussels, and Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, has argued for taking France off the euro altogether. He also champions any number of socially liberal positions, especially the freedom to practice religion in an officially secular state increasingly suspicious of Islam.
.. In Algeria this week, he referred to French colonization as a “crime against humanity,” infuriating right-leaning voters. But precisely the same thing happened last year among leftists — whose support he also needs — when he attacked the 35-hour workweek, a hallmark of French life.
“A long time ago, the left believed . . . that France would be better off if people worked less,” said Macron, who still describes himself as a man “of the left.” “That was a wrong idea.”
“There is indeed an electorate that doesn’t recognize itself in the classic left-right divide,” said Gérard Grunberg, a political scientist at Sciences Po in Paris. “But the problem with Macron’s electorate is that it consists of people too far to the left coupled with people too far to the right.”
With the possible exception of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1974, a centrist politician has never won the French presidency... The problem? If Macron does win, it remains unclear how he would then proceed, given that he has no party support behind him and his blend of ideologies will probably be difficult to sell in the French Parliament.As Martin put it: “With whom will he govern?”
Pence Backs NATO; Russian Official Touts a New World Order
She said Germany would continue increasing its military spending until it reaches 2% of gross domestic product, the NATO standard. But she cautioned against believing that “security is only ensured by raising one’s defense spending.”
.. He added that Moscow is looking for a new kind of world order, one where Russia has a loud voice. “If you want you can call it a post-West world order,” he said.
.. Mr. Lavrov also said the U.S. has produced few hard facts backing up its accusation of Russian interference in the American presidential election, which Moscow denies. He said people complained that Mr. Trump provided no evidence when he said there was voter fraud in U.S. election but didn’t demand evidence in this case... NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has taken up Mr. Trump’s call for allies to spend more on defense and has been pressing allies to develop spending plans ahead of the president’s visit to Europe in May... Without mentioning Mr. Trump, Ms. Merkel pushed back against the notion that the West is at war with Islam... German officials worry that Mr. Trump’s emphasis on bringing NATO more directly into waging the war on terrorism—rather than doing so in a broader coalition with Arab countries, as the Obama administration did—could feed anti-Western attitudes in the Middle East.
An Interview with Stanley McChrystal
What did we get right and what did we get wrong in Afghanistan and Iraq?
McChrystal: In both cases we didn’t understand either the problem or our objectives going in.
.. Afghanistan in particular was a case of finding a problem of much greater complexity, much deeper roots, and much more difficult issues than we appreciated
.. Iraq was a war of choice versus a war of reaction. And yet, interestingly enough, we didn’t understand the problem there either. Most leaders knew about the Kurds, Sunni, and Shia. But once we got inside we found that the dynamics were actually far more complex. The idea of removing the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein and replacing it with a government of our making, and the functions of state just continuing on was based on a fundamentally flawed assumption.
.. In the case of Afghanistan, immediately after 9/11, in terms of military action we should have done nothing initially. I now believe we should have taken the first year after 9/11 and sent 10,000 young Americans—military, civilians, diplomats—to language school; Pashtu, Dari, Arabic. We should have started to build up the capacity we didn’t have.
.. I would have made our case around the world that this is a global problem and that the whole world has to deal with it. I would have spent the full year in preparation. I would not have been worried about striking al-Qaeda that year; they weren’t going anywhere.
.. The Islamic State is the symptom, not the cause. Some argue that if the Islamic State were eliminated the problem would be solved. I would counter-argue that if the Islamic State suddenly vanished, most of the problems in the region would still be there and they would be just as intractable as they are now. The Islamic State is a reaction to the chaos and the weakness of the existing regimes in the region, the lack of legitimacy, not just of the Bashar al-Assad government, but in Iraq and elsewhere. The weakness of these regimes is the absence of a compelling narrative that signals to the people that there will be political, economic, and social opportunities in the future. ISIL is a rejection of the status quo.
.. That is also what the Arab Spring was about. It wasn’t a move to democracy, it was a rejection of the status quo.
.. The great tragedy of the Arab Spring was that there was no compelling narrative around which the people could coalesce. There was no pan-Arab nationalism as there was in the past, nor any other compelling narrative. The only counters to the ISIL jihad narrative have been the narratives of status quo organizations and governments that, in the minds of populations, are, at best, 20th century entities. People don’t want to maintain that; even though they might not want ISIL they haven’t seen another option yet
.. Those autocratic regimes may not have been good but they were stable, as was the presence of the United States since we were so tied to the flow of oil. Today a mother in Ohio is not going to be nearly as willing to send her daughter or son to protect the lanes of oil delivery in the Middle East as she might have been in 1978 because we frankly don’t need Middle East oil today.
.. It means a guaranteed level of participation and a willingness, when necessary, to apply strong economic and military pressure to show that we are a player in the region; that we are a permanent fact of life here. To most people that is a desirable thing. They will always complain about us. But like America in Europe after World War II we were a very stabilizing factor.
.. A European war is not unthinkable. People who want to believe a war in Europe is not possible might be in for a surprise. We have to acknowledge great power politics; we can’t pretend they are gone.
.. . The problem with the rise in power of these individuals—which really didn’t exist in the past—is that individuals in very small groups have a disproportionate ability to act. But they don’t have the vulnerabilities of a nation state. Nuclear power and nuclear strategy were always based on holding each other at risk. The problem is you can’t hold an individual or terrorist group at risk because you might not be able to find them—or they may not care. As a consequence, deterrence in its traditional sense doesn’t work. How can you prevent people from doing harmful things if you can’t deter them?
.. Technology has created the problem because it empowers individuals to do unprecedentedly destructive things. On the other hand technology empowers society to track and monitor people as never before. We are beginning an era in which our ability to leverage technology to track people and control populations is going to create a lot of tension; I think we are going to see a lot more population control measures. We are going to have to give up a lot more of our precious civil rights than most of us imagine because we want security. In other countries that haven’t had the freedom that we have, they may not notice as much, but we are entering a period where we will have to make those choices. And the choices are likely to go in the way of surrendering civil rights for security.
.. The special forces that were formed under President John F. Kennedy were regionally focused; they were taught foreign languages, and the idea was that they would know the people, they would know the culture, and they would be able to operate effectively because of that knowledge. But then we started deploying those groups all over the world and they lost their unique specialized knowledge and skills.
.. The indirect approach on the other hand is when you are essentially leveraging things, for example leveraging the feelings of the local population. You are trying to leverage the capacity, or increase the capacity, of local defense forces. Or if you’re in a guerrilla insurgency mode, you are trying to support an insurgency and leverage that. The indirect approach allows you to get much more scale than you can get with the direct approach alone. A few people if trained properly can have massive effect. More importantly if you use the indirect approach effectively, the local population you are training is owning and solving its own problems. This is hard to do, but if you don’t do it, the moment you’re out of there, there is a huge gap in capacity.
.. On the surface it looks as though for a relatively small investment, and no Americans killed, we beat the Soviet Union. We gave the Soviets their Vietnam. In so doing though, we changed Afghanistan. We created these warlord groups that fought a civil war that then allowed the rise of the Taliban. We created problems that we are now facing.
.. 0Traditional terrorist organizations are hierarchical, pyramid-shaped organizations with tight control and a set of unique attributes, in some ways very similar to a U.S. corporation. We were designed to go after that kind of organization. Al-Qaeda was organized like that, and still is.
.. Unless we step back and implement a fundamentally different approach, and create a fundamentally different environment, nothing will ultimately change. Sometimes you need new organizations or structural changes, but I am always a little suspicious of those because they are never as effective as you expect them to be. Process and culture are more important
.. Just 25 years ago, just being big was good enough, because size and scale created barriers to entry. But one after another, look at Sears and Roebucks, Walmart, Chrysler under stress.