3. Lower admissions standards to admit a larger fraction of applicants (including community college transfers) in order to kick the can down the road for another year or two, then feign shock when retention rates fall off a cliff. (My university went from about 81% to 59%, freshman class.)
.. One of our top departmental applicants, a guy who should have been in line for multiple scholarships in a good year, said he didn’t think he’d be able to attend without financial assistance. For whatever reason, millennials are incredibly reluctant to go deeply in debt in order to finance education. It’s almost as if the formative years of their youth witnessed some kind of similar cycle.
.. Keep your eyes on asset-backed security issuance rates for repackaged student loans. The loan market is technical, but it sends off all kinds of advanced warning signals in the form of flagging demand. As of now, I’d say the trend is turning over. And yes, with a 1.2 trillion loan market suddenly facing rising delinquencies and having more trouble marketing fresh debt to a new generation of dupes, this will snowball. As banks can’t find ways to sell debt, they’ll issue less of it, which means fewer applicants, which means that universities will be forced to swallow the depreciation cost of all the improvements they’ve been making under the early rush of new money from the education bubble, for years to come.
Student debt assets were, at last count, making up something like 50% of the US government debt portfolio.
Donald Trump in New York: Deep Roots, but Little Influence
One contractor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of being sued by Mr. Trump, said Mr. Trump underpaid on one large job, at one of his towers, by almost $100,000. The contractor opted not to sue, estimating the litigation would cost more than the losses. The two parties have not done business since.
Lawyers who spoke to The Times had similar stories.
.. Mr. Trump revels in his reputation, boasting about not paying some of his outstanding legal and construction bills. “If they do a bad job, they have to suffer,” he said. “If they overbill me or if they don’t do a good job, I take plenty of time to pay them and I negotiate with them.”
.. One New York institution Mr. Trump has been forced to deal with is Wall Street. Here bank executives are cautious, citing his previous bankruptcies and his propensity for litigation.
.. Fifteen companies with ties to Mr. Trump owe banks in excess of $270 million, according to his Federal Election Commission disclosures. The actual amount of debt is higher, however — the top range candidates are required to reveal is $50 million or above for any given loan…
.. Deutsche Bank is one of his main lenders; his filings show JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are not currently lending to him.
.. Public records show Mr. Thorburn trademarked the phrase “Make Christianity Great Again” and is selling hats that mirror Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” caps.
Stung by Low Oil Prices, Companies Face a Reckoning on Debts
If prices hold at such low levels — oil traded near $28 on Tuesday — as many as 150 oil and gas companies could file for bankruptcy, according to IHS, an energy research firm.
.. As much as a third of the oil industry could be consolidated as a result of the downturn, according to one estimate.
.. “The industry will be permanently damaged,” said Steven H. Pruett, chief executive of Elevation Resources, a leading Midland oil company.
.. energy companies on average have twice as much leverage, or borrowed money, as companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index
.. Major oil companies like Exxon Mobil andRoyal Dutch Shell, which have ample cash cushions, may end up benefiting from the turmoil, scooping up broken companies or their assets.
.. Nationally, just 15 percent of oil and gas production is hedged in 2016, compared with 28 percent of production in the fourth quarter, according to IHS, the research firm.
.. As rigs go off-line, companies are using technologies to squeeze as much oil as they can out of existing wells. But if an aging well breaks, many companies are not spending the money to fix it, and executives predict a rapid decline in production as shale wells peter out.
.. We’re hoping to see prices stabilize and recover sometime in 2017,” Mr. Lucas said.
A New Deal for Europe
the failures to make such reforms are not enough to explain the sudden plunge in GDP in the eurozone from 2011 to 2013, even as the US economy was in recovery. There can be no question now that the recovery in Europe was throttled by the attempt to cut deficits too quickly between 2011 and 2013—and particularly by tax hikes that were far too sharp in France. Such application of tight budgetary rules ensured that the eurozone’s GDP still, in 2015, hasn’t recovered to its 2007 levels.
.. the Erasmus education program—which provides opportunities for students and teachers to study and train abroad—is ridiculously underfunded. It has a budget of two billion euros annually, against the 200 billion euros set aside every year for interest on eurozone debt. We ought to be investing heavily in innovation and young people.
.. If France, Italy, and Spain (roughly 50 percent of the eurozone’s population and GDP, as against Germany, with scarcely more than 25 percent) were to put forth a specific proposal for a new and effective parliament, some compromise would have to be found. And if Germany stubbornly continues to refuse, which seems unlikely, then the argument against the euro as a common currency becomes very difficult to counter.