America’s Glaring Weak Spot in a Trade War? The Lowly Soybean

How might China respond? One possibility is soybeans. The country imported $12.4 billion of American soybeans last year to feed its pigs. China relies on these imports to keep feed prices low, which in turn keeps low the politically-sensitive price of pork. The meat is China’s staple protein, and a sizable component in household budgets.

.. But China is arguably now in a better position to handle disruption from American soy. Food price inflation has been running negative for over a year thanks to agricultural reforms, rebounding pork supply and a worldwide grain glut. The strengthening Chinese yuan is also weighing on the price of imported foodstuffs.

.. U.S. farmers’ leverage with China, meanwhile, is exceptionally weak. Farm debt is high and incomes are falling.

Global soybean prices remain mired at barely half their 2012 peak. And Brazil, America’s main competitor for the Chinese soy market, is growing another bumper crop.

The Daily Shot: The White House Defends Archaic Industries at the Expense of Value-Added Manufacturing

The decision to tax steel and aluminum imports was a political move that should, in theory, play well in races such as Pennsylvania’s district 18 special elections. The larger question, however, is whether the US wants to compete in the industrial commodities businesses that had peaked decades ago. Boosting these industries will be at the expense of value-added manufacturing, which has rebounded in recent years. Even China is now shifting out of these “old economy” sectors (#2 here). Ironically, higher import prices for industrial materials may encourage some firms to move more production outside of the US.

From the consumer’s perspective, these tariffs mean higher prices on thousands of products – from US-made cars to beer cans.

Has Jared Kushner Conspired to Defraud America?

the guilty plea to the same charge by Rick Gates, Mr. Manafort’s deputy, may pose a real danger to Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser. According to reports, Mr. Mueller appears to be assessing whether Mr. Kushner, in the guise of pursuing foreign policy on behalf of the United States, was actually serving the interests of his family and foreign governments.

.. the United States government has intercepted communications of foreign leaders talking about ways they could take advantage of Mr. Kushner, whose family real estate empire is facing substantial debt woes.

.. when Mr. Kushner was negotiating President Trump’s first visit to China, his family business was trying to sell a debt-ridden property in New York to an insurance company with ties to the Chinese Communist Party. Public scrutiny of the deal scuttled it. Last May, The New York Times described how, immediately after the Trump administration extended a visa program for wealthy investors, Mr. Kushner’s sister invoked Mr. Kushner in a presentation seeking Chinese investment in one of the family’s New Jersey real estate developments.

.. But Mr. Kushner might face more trouble to the extent he keeps such negotiations secret from those in charge of carrying out United States foreign policy.

.. He was still making updates to his forms as recently as January. That means he has conducted an entire year of foreign policy without officially disclosing all the personal interests he may have been serving.

.. the risk might be greater still if Mr. Kushner negotiated such deals before Mr. Trump’s inauguration. That’s the possibility raised by Mr. Kushner’s pre-inauguration meetings with Russia. In December 2016, Mr. Kushner met with Sergey Gorkov, the head of a bank under American sanctions, Vnesheconombank.