openpolitics.com

13:55

remember I’m not sure if you were you

were still in Moscow and then probably

at the time but when in Azerbaijan one

of the former Soviet republics the

Soviet era leader Illya Haydar Iliev

died and he saw to pass his country on

to his son which in fact he succeeded at

14:15

doing and I went down for the election

and you know his son was not popular at

all he was sort of seen as a playboy he

was Western educated he was you know a

sort of a worldly sort but not at all

seen as you know fit to lead a country

and so there was unhappiness that was

genuine and that even you know the

reading people would tell you went to

this election it was a totally rigged

election and there was protesting the

streets you know people’s heads were

cracked right in front of me but with

the the lesson that I took away from it

was on the plane going back and there

were some Western election observers and

some Russian election observers on the

plane back to Moscow and the Europeans

said we don’t understand I mean you know

why were they so greedy

why did Elliot have to give himself 85

for some of the vote nobody thinks that

he really kind of 85 percent you know

couldn’t may have done 55 and he said

this to the Russian he said you don’t

understand the 85 percent was the point

the the fact that people knew he wasn’t

very popular and that this had to be you

know an orchestrated result the higher

the percentage the better I’m amazed

they didn’t go for 90% and it was this

very revealing moment to me where I

realized that you know the things that

are necessary to dictate the survival of

an authoritarian government are very

different than you know certainly that

product of the United States is is used

to thinking and and Putin has already

struck me as playing more by alliums law

than then we realize so

based on this book I know every single

person here is gonna stand up and ask

you this question so I’ll just ask you

16:04

for you anyways

16:05

you know why why do you think Putin has

16:09

taken what appears to be such an

16:11

aggressive outward turn you know not

16:13

just focusing on cracking down inside

16:15

Russia and you know making sure no more

16:18

below Tenaya protests break out but

16:20

focusing on the United States to a

16:23

degree that clearly has shocked many

16:24

people here in Washington this Saturday

16:29

it will be the one-year anniversary

16:31

not only of the Access Hollywood tape

16:33

which I’m sure everyone here remembers

16:35

but it will also be the one-year

16:38

anniversary of when the US government

16:40

said Russia had done the packing of the

16:44

dnc the one-year anniversary of the week

16:47

of Tom Podesta’s emails and it’s a lot

16:50

of effort since birthday and the 11th

16:56

anniversary of the murder of Anna

16:58

Politkovskaya

17:00

so I think that actually in it echoing

17:06

what you were just saying about I leaves

17:07

election the outward turn was the point

17:10

right

17:11

I believe and and I discussed this at

17:16

length in the book I believe that the

17:17

nature of the regime changed after the

17:20

crackdown it went from being an

17:22

authoritarian regime to a kind of

17:24

totalitarian regime right when I say

17:26

kind of totalitarian I don’t mean that

17:28

he was establishing a new totalitarian

17:30

regime right that would involve terror

17:33

and just all sorts of unimaginable

17:35

horror but he was calling forth the

17:38

habits and customs of Soviet

17:42

totalitarian society and one of the

17:45

differences between an authoritarian and

17:48

totalitarian regime that I think is key

17:51

here is mobilization and in in an

17:56

authoritarian regime

17:57

nothing is political the authoritarian

18:00

leader wants people to stay home tend to

18:03

their private lives and not pay

18:05

attention while he ponders the country

18:08

consolidate spur or whatever it is

18:10

history

18:11

at two teletraan leader wants the exact

18:14

opposite everything is political there

18:18

is no private realm and the totalitarian

18:21

leader wants people out in the public

18:23

square rallying for a victory right the

18:28

to tell the population has to be

18:30

mobilized and there are lots of reasons

18:33

why it has two immobilized but the

18:35

question is how does it get mobilized

18:37

and it only can get mobilized against an

18:39

enemy and they only Menna me that is big

18:43

enough and glorious enough to be

18:45

mobilized against is the United States

18:47

and I think that’s something that the

18:51

foreign policy establishment in this

18:52

country really failed to understand was

18:54

that was the nature of the war in

18:55

Ukraine the Russians believe that they

18:58

were fighting a proxy war with the

18:59

United States in Ukraine and in Syria

19:02

and so in that sense the intense

19:06

interest and participation in the

19:10

American election he’s just completely

19:13

logical it’s not you know it’s not a

19:15

break with the narrative it’s part of

19:17

the narrative especially because Russia

19:20

believes that the United States has

19:22

meddled in its own politics has

19:24

organized that Hillary Clinton

19:26

personally organized protests in the

19:28

streets in 2011-2012 and so why

19:31

shouldn’t Russia do the same here okay

19:33

so you brought up the t word as in

19:35

totalitarianism which is the subtitle of

19:38

your book how totalitarianism reclaimed

19:41

Russia you know you had to have done

19:43

that recognizing that some people would

19:46

would get in an argument over

19:47

definitions with you and that no

19:50

Lattimore printed as many things you

19:52

described them well in your previous

19:54

book but he has not killed millions of

19:57

people but so um that’s why I wrote a

20:00

whole chapter on the definition of

20:02

totalitarianism chapter 14 but so here’s

20:10

my theory of the case I I think that

20:13

Putin certainly did not set out to be a

20:17

totalitarian leader in fact the regime

20:20

that he was trying to build as a mafia

20:22

state and

20:24

this is I think this is the best

20:26

definition again there have been many

20:27

oligarchy kleptocracy crony capitalism

20:30

the liberal democracy

20:32

I think that they’re all flawed and the

20:37

best one is mafia state and this is a

20:39

definition put forward by a Hungarian

20:42

political scientist named Balan major

20:45

who describes it as a clan a family run

20:50

by patriarch the patriarch distributes

20:53

money and power and you know the amazing

20:58

thing since the people are going to ask

21:00

about this as well I’ll just go ahead

21:02

and say it

21:04

the amazing thing of course is when I

21:06

was writing the book in writing about

21:08

mafia States the whole the concept of

21:10

family was a metaphor right I was

21:14

talking about the other T word I wasn’t

21:18

thinking that you know would be

21:19

observing the formation of a mafia State

21:22

with a literal family at the home but so

21:27

he he was building office T his goal

21:30

continues to be to to retain power in

21:35

perpetuity and to continue in the chisa

21:39

but because to do that he had to crack

21:42

down in 2012 and because he cracked down

21:46

on the ruins of a totalitarian society

21:50

the response he got was the survival

21:53

response of a totalitarian society it’s

21:56

very much like you know a person who has

22:00

been in an abusive situation developed

22:04

survival skills that are suited to that

22:07

situation and those are the skills that

22:10

that person is going to use throughout

22:12

their life unless something

22:15

extraordinary like really great therapy

22:16

happens to this person but as Susan over

22:19

dimensioned Russia didn’t really Russia

22:21

need a lot of therapy didn’t get a lot

22:22

of therapy the survival skills of a

22:25

totalitarian society were perfectly

22:26

suited for the period of state terror

22:28

and the thing that that I think we have

22:31

discovered in the last 20 years is that

22:35

they have been made

22:36

and in response to put subscribe down

22:39

that’s what came forward so I know we

22:43

are gonna want to turn back to the other

22:44

t word in a second but let’s stick with

22:46

the book for right now you have these

22:49

sort of four main characters these young

22:50

people but you you also these sort of

22:52

three intellectual protagonists and one

22:55

of them is Alexander Dugan who has

22:58

become in innocence the chief ideologist

23:01

behind putinism even though it’s he

23:04

wasn’t like personally close to Putin as

23:07

far as we understand it tell us what you

23:09

think about this debate and there is a

23:12

debate about whether there really is an

23:14

ideology of putinism beyond just

23:17

maintaining power for Putin you know

23:20

this is one of the big arguments in our

23:22

sort of world of Russia Watchers and the

23:24

reason I think it’s particularly

23:26

relevant right now is this question of

23:30

what kind of a conflict are we facing

23:33

between Russia and the West between

23:35

Russia and the United States it actually

23:37

depends a little bit on how you assess

23:39

their ideology whether they have an

23:41

ideology and if so you know how it plays

23:44

out so tell us a little bit about your

23:46

study of Alexander Dugan he didn’t

23:48

cooperate unlike the other characters in

23:49

this book well he cooperated in a very

23:52

peculiar way he sent me stuff and he

23:55

sent me his right right-hand person to

23:58

talk to me so I talked to I interviewed

24:00

him by proxy but he also has a vast

24:04

written record that and actually I want

24:09

to just give a shout out to unconscious

24:11

cops of who’s here who knows so much

24:13

more about Alexandra Dugan than I ever

24:15

will and he was a new book out on Russia

24:20

and the European far-right so the

24:27

ideology question actually I’m not sure

24:29

is the right question and I’ll explain

24:33

ideology is also something that looks

24:36

coherent usually in hindsight when you

24:39

read contemporary accounts of say

24:42

Hitler’s Germany which we imagine to

24:43

have had a very clear idea gee

24:48

victor klemper talks about how they are

24:51

opportunists and they just pick up

24:53

whatever whatever is handy to make a

24:55

particular argument erich fromm writes

24:58

that they have no ideology whatsoever

25:00

and the very idea that Hitler has an

25:02

ideology is misguided Hannah Arendt

25:05

writes later than from that that one of

25:10

the reasons that the West was that that

25:12

the the other Western countries were so

25:16

slow to understand what was going on in

25:19

Germany and in the Soviet Union was that

25:22

the ideology on the face of it seemed

25:24

preposterous that if you tell somebody

25:27

that they’re going to kill millions of

25:29

people because they are because of their

25:33

ethnicity it sounds preposterous if you

25:35

told them somebody that their ideology

25:37

is to eliminate eradicate entire classes

25:42

of people to the tune of millions of

25:44

people it sounds preposterous only once

25:47

it’s happened does it become believable

25:49

even if it’s still unimaginable and then

25:52

it starts to add up to coherent ideology

25:54

so I think that you know once you’ve

25:57

immersed herself in those accounts you

26:00

actually think this guy doesn’t have

26:03

less of an ideology than any of those he

26:07

is um I think he has struck a couple of

26:11

themes that are consistent and one has a

26:14

lot of traction and that’s traditional

26:16

values right

26:18

it began in part with queerbaiting the

26:22

protesters and because that turned out

26:25

to be so effective it’s it’s turned into

26:29

this full-fledged sort of idea of a

26:31

traditional value civilization that’s

26:32

Duggan’s idea and a russian world and

26:35

russia as the center of a civilization

26:38

based on traditional values um that’s

26:41

that’s just a heron does it get well I

26:44

know the audience has a lot of questions

26:46

and I’m gonna look for our microphone so

26:49

that you can raise your hands and do it

26:51

while you’re getting your questions

26:52

ready I’ll throw a coin on when – Masha

26:55

before turning it over to you the

26:56

audience back to the other T word

26:59

you know you’ve written in

27:01

sure many people here are familiar with

27:02

your very powerful essay in the New York

27:05

Review books suggesting that you know

27:07

the threat of Trump has to really do

27:10

with the question of

27:13

the kind of society we have here in the

27:15

United States so now that it’s 250 days

27:18

230 days in to the Trump presidency what

27:22

is your own progress report on the state

27:24

of American democracy under Trump do you

27:28

fear do you feel that your predictions

27:30

are coming true I do unfortunately I

27:34

think that and if you recall or you

27:39

don’t have to recall I recall that I

27:44

actually in the in that essay but also

27:47

later this was more vividly when

27:50

Samantha bee asked me what my greatest

27:51

fear was and I said nuclear holocaust

27:53

and you know back in January it seemed

27:57

like a kind of nutty thing to say we’re

28:02

in September in October now and we’ve

28:04

been living with the specter of a

28:07

nuclear holocaust for a month you know

28:13

that’s that’s how fast it has advanced

28:16

and I think that he is Trump’s attack on

28:21

American institutions and even more

28:24

significantly to my mind on American

28:26

political culture has been as unceasing

28:29

as it could possibly have been I didn’t

28:33

actually imagine that it would be this

28:34

cacophonous but I think the cacophony

28:36

makes it that much more effective

28:39

you mean cacophonous from inside the

28:41

Trump administration which clearly is

28:43

not yet singing with one voice I mean

28:46

that but I also mean you know the the

28:48

just endless barrage of news I mean I’m

28:53

boots hidden when he came to power in

28:55

the you know all of us have again our

28:58

own heuristics right my Putin came to

28:59

power he set in motion a kind of

29:01

authoritarian crawl right he was very

29:05

methodical about taking over power but

29:09

every step was was measured and I think

29:13

that that’s part of what made it so

29:14

effective in his case was that every

29:17

single thing he did it on its face

29:20

wasn’t that awful you know until 2004

29:24

when he cancelled the Burnet or election

29:26

but basically up until that point

29:28

everything he did was kind of horrible

29:31

but not not it was difficult actually to

29:36

make the argument in the Western media I

29:38

know I tried that he was establishing an

29:41

authoritarian regime and you know Trump

29:44

has been acting like a bull in the china

29:46

shop from day one

29:49

there has been no crawl there’s like

29:50

this constant artillery attack and on

29:57

that note who wants to be the first to

29:59

jump in with Suzanne um can you talk

30:04

about food as well and how he came by

30:07

that and the oligarchs and Russia and

30:09

how did the people feel about the failed

30:13

attempt at you know an actual kind of

30:16

democracy thank you that’s at least

30:19

three questions so I’m going to focus on

30:24

the last of those three questions

30:25

because it actually has to do with

30:27

what’s what’s in this book as opposed to

30:29

a much earlier book about Putin so how

30:33

do people feel about the failed attempt

30:35

at democracy well we no longer know

30:38

that’s how profound the transformation

30:42

of Russian society has been there’s

30:45

there’s a moment in the book that’s very

30:46

important to me when they have good

30:48

coffee

30:49

the sociologist he has taken a piece of

30:52

paper and he has graft his superimposed

30:56

two graphs the graph of Putin’s

30:59

popularity which skyrocketed after the

31:02

invasion of Ukraine and held at 86% so

31:06

it looks like a vertical line up from 50

31:08

something to 86 and then it just holds

31:10

it plateaus and the graph of consumer

31:15

confidence which is a actually sort of

31:18

more broadly a sense of economic

31:22

well-being which plummeted around the

31:25

same time just as the Russian economy

31:27

tanked and stayed and plateaued at the

31:30

bottom and so it looks like this and he

31:34

held us up and said this can’t happen

31:37

this is impossible right these two lines

31:42

have to meet

31:44

either this goes up where this goes down

31:46

most likely both of them one goes up and

31:48

the other one goes down the fact that it

31:50

hasn’t means that it’s no longer a

31:53

society in which you can meaningfully

31:55

measure public opinion because there’s

31:57

no public and there’s no opinion since

32:00

we’re also coming up on the anniversary

32:03

of the Bolshevik Revolution I was

32:06

wondering how much you feel that Putin

32:08

the KGB agent is influenced by the

32:11

Soviet political culture and structure

32:14

and how much he represents a break from

32:16

that oh I think his he is a KGB agent

32:19

through the truth that’s uh that’s the

32:23

nature of the beast and what I think is

32:26

it is important and what you know what

32:29

this book is about is is how much he has

32:32

been able to tap into a nostalgia for an

32:37

imaginary Soviet Union and recreate

32:42

aspects of that culture okay my name is

32:51

Ruth and given the different histories

32:54

and different political cultures of

32:56

Russia and the US and given what you’ve

33:00

termed the assault on American political

33:03

culture by Trump how successful do you

33:07

think he will be in establishing a

33:10

clause like totalitarian regime here if

33:13

at all and what would be the best

33:15

resistance that you would suggest for

33:18

the American population so I mean I

33:23

don’t think that there’s a danger of

33:26

totalitarianism in this country to Talat

33:29

arianism does require state terror the

33:33

reason that Putin has been able to tap

33:35

into totalitarian culture is that there

33:39

was state terror in the Soviet Union for

33:42

at least three decades and the memory of

33:47

that terror has shaped the society that

33:49

Russia has today I think that Trump is

33:54

an aspiring autocrat

33:56

he wants to he wants to rule like a

33:59

tyrant and that’s a real risk and it’s a

34:03

real risk you know not in the sense that

34:05

that Americans will forfeit as many

34:07

liberties as Russian supported but it

34:10

certainly it will I think there’s a real

34:13

risk to institutions in there there’s a

34:15

real risk to two political culture and I

34:20

think the way to resist it I mean

34:23

obviously I’m in a great position to

34:25

give advice on this because I had to

34:28

flee my own country that’s one way yeah

34:34

I mean

34:35

New Zealand seems like a nice place but

34:39

but I think that in this country we have

34:43

to be really aware of what we have right

34:45

I mean there have been aspiring tyrants

34:51

aspiring autocrats as long as there have

34:53

been democracies right there have been

34:54

people who wanted to destroy them and

34:57

never actually have they confronted a

35:00

civil society this strong and a public

35:04

sphere this healthy and that’s an

35:06

strange thing to say because you know

35:07

we’ve all been bemoaning but good reason

35:09

sort of the the the the polarization in

35:12

this country and the crisis of trust in

35:16

in the media all that is true and still

35:20

I think a majority of people in this

35:24

country are routinely exposed to

35:26

opinions that they don’t share a

35:28

majority of people get their news from

35:30

different sources that don’t speak with

35:34

one voice

35:36

we have an absolutely extraordinarily

35:38

wealthy and broad civil society and we

35:43

saw how it can act when the travel ban

35:46

happened and how a civil society

35:49

motivates institutions to act we have to

35:52

be really aware of that and importantly

35:53

we have to be aware of it because we we

35:55

need to know that institutions don’t

35:58

actually function without civil society

36:02

institutions will absolutely not save us

36:05

only civil society puts pressure on them

36:08

and supports them well we have some hope

36:12

of of protecting what we have but we all

36:15

see you know we also have to understand

36:16

that what we have is very much worth

36:18

protecting hi my name is Jason and my

36:24

question relates to how Russia sort of

36:26

interacts with the broader world I’ve

36:29

sort of noticed a pattern kind of in

36:31

Russian history where you don’t like

36:33

some sort of catastrophic war for

36:35

example will happen like Napoleon

36:36

attacks and as a response there’s a push

36:39

back to the West so Alexander then sees

36:42

as much of Poland or after World War two

36:45

yo you see Stalin setting up this

36:47

network of various satellite states in

36:50

Central Europe

36:51

do you see Putin as kind of actively

36:55

following in that that’s sort of pattern

36:58

um I actually would disagree with your

37:02

narrative a bit you’ve just told a story

37:06

that that actually Russia really loves

37:08

to tell of how Russia is always under

37:10

attack and encounter attacks I think I’m

37:15

probably more accurate way of looking at

37:17

it is to say that Russia has been an

37:20

empire and it has had an expansive

37:22

vector for most of its history

37:25

and it’s not because it’s under attack

37:27

from the West and that’s that’s very

37:30

much in play now I think that one of the

37:33

missed opportunities and I do talk about

37:35

this in the book is is sort of the

37:38

opportunity to develop a post Imperial

37:41

identity okay the Soviet Union was an

37:43

empire it was an empire that didn’t they

37:46

denied that it was an empire but but it

37:50

broke apart like empires do but there is

37:53

still an empire left and thus Empire had

37:59

the opportunity to to start thinking of

38:03

itself in a different way and perhaps to

38:07

not base its identity on greatness

38:10

and that didn’t happen and under Putin

38:14

it’s very much back to a great Russia

38:16

the the the the single great myth of

38:21

Russian history now is World War two

38:24

which as live both again the sociologist

38:27

says is the perfect myth because it

38:29

shines it slides backwards and forwards

38:31

backwards because it justifies all the

38:34

terror that came before and for is

38:36

because it explains how the Soviet Union

38:38

became a superpower and that’s sort of

38:42

that’s that’s at this point the source

38:44

of Russian identity and then in large

38:48

part dictates you know it’s it’s outside

38:50

ambition it’s superpower scale ambition

38:53

and it’s expensive expansive motion

38:58

my name is my name is Jacob and I had a

39:01

question that I think is sort of a

39:02

follow on to the the preceding one and

39:05

it has to do with Turkey and it seems to

39:09

me that air Dewan in Turkey is really

39:12

following a very similar strategy as

39:15

Putin did in Russia and it seems like

39:17

Putin has offered him very close support

39:19

in that process since the coup oh sorry

39:24

since the coup in July of I guess 2016

39:27

and I was wondering if you could talk

39:30

about that relationship from from your

39:32

perspective and and what you see is its

39:34

future um I don’t judge me I’m not at

39:38

all an expert on Turkey like not at all

39:40

so I’d really hesitate to talk about

39:43

Turkey one thing that I would say about

39:46

that relationship is that has been quite

39:48

volatile I mean there was a moment but

39:52

about six months before the coup when it

39:55

looked like there might be a war between

39:56

Russia and Turkey and that’s actually an

39:59

important lesson for Americans I think

40:02

right the here we have a president now

40:05

has promised a wonderful relationship

40:07

with Russia and the u.s. relationship

40:10

with Russia is at its lowest point

40:12

possibly since world war two right at

40:16

the point of you know mutually expelling

40:17

diplomats at a point when the US Embassy

40:21

in in in Russia has stopped issuing

40:24

visas because they no longer have the

40:26

the people power to to issue visas Trump

40:30

has suggested closing the consulate in

40:32

San Francisco I mean it’s just it’s just

40:34

spiraling and I think that’s the serve

40:40

the erdowan Putin example is a good

40:42

example of how unreliable autocratic

40:46

friendships are and how volatile they

40:49

can be hi my name is Tina I have a

40:54

question about the protests that were

40:56

going on earlier this year so it seems

40:58

that people like Navalny really

41:00

capitalized on discontent with the lack

41:04

of economic growth for the middle

41:05

classes so the rich who were getting a

41:08

lot richer and then there was a

41:09

stagnation or

41:10

a loss of economic power in the middle

41:13

classes and the the people that were

41:14

less well-off and it seems like there is

41:18

continued interest in going out and

41:20

doing something or protesting on the

41:21

streets at least in the bigger cities

41:22

and then of course the money was

41:24

arrested but do you see that that

41:26

discontent is going away or are they

41:28

neutralizing it in some way or is it

41:30

still there and just not finding

41:31

expression in any kind of systemic

41:34

organized fashion so the question

41:40

concerns protests that there have been –

41:43

two waves of protests this year and

41:46

probably one more coming in the spring

41:49

and then in June when called upon by

41:55

Alexei Navalny who started out as an

41:58

anti-corruption blogger and has become

42:00

sort of a leading light for for a lot of

42:02

people in Russia people came out into

42:05

the streets to protest corruption all

42:07

over Russia in June people came out in

42:10

over 100 cities and towns so the most

42:13

geographically spread out protests in

42:18

Russian history I believe and the regime

42:21

responded by arresting 1725 people in

42:25

one day so the largest wave of arrests

42:27

in a single day in decades I think that

42:32

gives us a pretty good indication of of

42:36

how this is going to play out but to me

42:39

the saddest thing about those protests

42:41

as much as I you know as much as I have

42:45

I have lots of problems with my Balinese

42:46

politics but I admire his inventiveness

42:50

and his urge immensely and as much as I

42:55

admire the people who came out to

42:58

protest there was something really

43:01

tragic to me about those protests and

43:03

that was how both the number of very

43:06

very young people in them but even more

43:09

so the the way that older people and by

43:13

older people I mean anybody over 25

43:16

interpreted them all over Russian social

43:21

networks

43:23

in what little independent media there

43:25

is there was the sentiment oh this is

43:27

the new generation that’s finally going

43:30

to make change and they’re talking about

43:33

seventeen year olds and a lot of the

43:36

people who are talking about the 17 year

43:38

olds in it and the 15 year olds are

43:40

people in their mid-30s who were the

43:43

young faces of protest five years ago

43:46

and who have already given up on

43:48

themselves and on their entire

43:50

generation and are passing the baton to

43:52

the next generation to me that was

43:55

especially painful because I had just

43:57

finished writing this book a lot of

44:01

which is about this idea of generational

44:05

change and ultimately whether

44:07

generational change is stronger than

44:09

injured intergenerational trauma the

44:16

sociologists who think I keep mentioning

44:19

him more than the other characters but

44:21

he is he offers incredible analysis and

44:23

and he and the team that he worked for

44:27

in 1989

44:29

went out to do survey based on the sizes

44:32

that the Soviet man Hamas of a circus

44:36

was bound to be a dying breed because it

44:40

had been decades more than a generation

44:42

since Stalin’s terror ended and so

44:45

people with the living memory of terror

44:47

were dying off and that would mean that

44:51

a Soviet man was dying off and that

44:54

would mean that Soviet institutions that

44:55

rested on Soviet man would crumble and

44:58

that would mean that would bring the

44:59

Soviet Union down so they had this

45:01

optimistic hypothesis they went out they

45:04

did a survey they concluded that they

45:05

were right two years later the Soviet

45:09

Union collapsed right on schedule

45:11

and in another three years they went

45:13

back to do that survey again and got

45:15

really weird results that suggested that

45:18

Hamas of a Turkish was not dying off was

45:23

surviving and five years after that they

45:25

did it again and concluded and I quote

45:28

that’s Hamas of a circus is not only

45:30

thriving but reproducing

45:34

and they keep getting results that

45:36

affirm that theory in there they don’t

45:37

see that person that that that that

45:43

traumatized survivor of totalitarian

45:46

society going anywhere and so the way

45:49

that one generation sort of looked at

45:51

the next and said okay let the let the

45:53

school children do it just to depress

45:56

the hell out of me

46:00

hi my name is Sophie and I studied China

46:05

oh sorry

46:07

where there’s also been absurd in

46:10

nationalism and also a crackdown on not

46:13

democracy because they don’t have that

46:14

but on civil society within roughly the

46:17

same period of time and in connection

46:20

with that there’s also been a real

46:22

upsurge I think in a propaganda about

46:25

traditional gender rules and so I was

46:28

wondering if you had any thoughts about

46:30

the impact of increasing

46:31

authoritarianism in Russia on gender

46:34

equality and and then also separately

46:41

you’ve spoken about the connection

46:43

between trauma as a sort of collective

46:46

national experience and how that can be

46:49

exploited by governments for to

46:54

implement totalitarianism and I wonder

46:57

if you think that it also works perhaps

47:00

in the opposite direction that repairing

47:03

trauma on an individual level

47:05

um can have a revolutionary impact

47:08

should the National Endowment for

47:10

democracy be adding a line item for

47:14

therapy for this I hope the grants that

47:17

they asked people to apply for oh my god

47:19

that is such a great idea

47:21

I I think the answer is no one has tried

47:26

that but that sounds like such an

47:28

amazing project and and you know you

47:30

can’t go wrong with the project like

47:31

that like you can’t fail at least on the

47:33

individual level you will help people

47:35

which is more than you can say for a lot

47:37

of you know democracy advancement

47:41

projects so gender roles you know it

47:46

Evan it’s it always gets really

47:47

complicated when we talk about gender

47:49

roles in in Russia because it seems so

47:53

contradictory within women equally

47:56

represented in the work place and and

47:59

and and a lot of female-headed

48:03

households and all of that but so that

48:06

said and that the complication

48:08

acknowledged

48:10

there’s been both I think rhetorically

48:13

and and really socially a real sort of

48:17

reversion in the last under Putin

48:21

I mean Putin there’s the great anecdote

48:25

that Hillary Clinton told to Putin told

48:29

to David Remnick in one when he was

48:31

interviewing her but her book where she

48:34

asked Putin and I haven’t gotten to that

48:37

place in the book I don’t know if it’s

48:38

in the book as well but she she was

48:42

looking for something that she could

48:43

discuss with Putin and he’s very

48:47

interested in nature conservation which

48:49

is also something I know a little bit

48:51

about and and so she said to him she

48:56

asked me a question about that and he

48:58

just lit her up and started talking to

49:00

her and he said in fact I’m about to go

49:01

to Chukotka to place a satellite collar

49:03

on a polar bear maybe Bill wants to come

49:06

with me he says to the secretary of

49:10

state of the United States and she says

49:12

well bill might be busy I could come

49:15

with you and he just ignores it and

49:20

that’s sort of you know that’s that’s

49:22

the culture very very much the reigning

49:28

culture and when Putin has also been

49:30

known to be to respond to a question

49:33

asked by a woman journalist you know and

49:35

how many children have you had and a lot

49:39

of the rhetoric underlying the anti-gay

49:42

campaign has actually had to do with

49:44

reproduction and demographics and I

49:46

think part of the reason that has been

49:47

so successful is because it does tap

49:49

into a real demographic panic so all of

49:53

that has not been great for for for

49:59

gender equality and more equal gender

50:03

roles and and they you know the

50:06

incredible emphasis now on traditional

50:08

values or whatever that might mean and

50:11

sort of the imaginary past when we had

50:13

those traditional values ultimately you

50:16

know it’s just going to exacerbate that

50:18

situation

50:21

hi my name is Lia I just wanted to thank

50:24

you for being here um sorry um so my

50:29

question was that in other revolutions

50:33

like for example in the Arab Spring

50:35

social media has been a really effective

50:38

tool for mass mobilization of

50:42

opposition’s

50:43

I was just wondering if you could talk a

50:47

little bit more about how why you think

50:49

that given how unregulated social media

50:52

and the Internet are generally why you

50:55

think the opposition hasn’t really

50:57

effectively used it – yes right so yeah

51:04

I wouldn’t say that the opposition

51:05

hasn’t effectively use social networks

51:09

or social media here’s what I would say

51:12

first of all I would say that there is

51:14

no opposition in Russia right and what I

51:18

mean is that opposition is a word that

51:21

suggests access to public sphere access

51:24

to media access to electoral

51:27

institutions none of that exists right

51:30

so their opponents to Putin who

51:36

publicize who spread information and who

51:40

sometimes organize protests it’s very

51:42

different from saying that there’s an

51:43

opposition and it has a lot to do with

51:46

why the potential of how the potential

51:49

of social media is limited right social

51:52

media cannot create connections that

51:55

don’t exist offline it cannot create

51:58

public space that really doesn’t exist

52:00

offline it can speed up communication

52:04

and it can amplify messages but only

52:08

within the confines of what already

52:09

exists offline okay and so when protests

52:15

broke out people were able to spread the

52:19

message very very quickly within

52:21

existing networks using social media

52:24

among other things it was as often

52:28

happens the impact of social media was

52:30

overestimated polls actually

52:33

that about half the people who

52:35

participated in purchase in 2011-2012

52:38

learned about them from social media and

52:40

about half from other sources great but

52:43

it played an important role but it’s not

52:45

you know social media as we have now

52:47

finally learned in this country as well

52:48

it’s not inherently anything it’s not

52:52

inherently democratic it’s not it

52:54

doesn’t inherently it’s not inherently a

52:57

force for good and it doesn’t inherently

53:02

it doesn’t create things that aren’t

53:04

already there it just makes them more

53:06

efficient so I’m originally from Moscow

53:10

my name is Natasha emigrated about 20 it

53:13

was the last year of the Soviet Union

53:15

I have a personal question actually two

53:19

interrelated personal questions one is

53:23

you have been living in Moscow after you

53:26

came back from the US for quite some

53:30

time and now you are back in the US I

53:33

wanted to find out how you’re finding

53:36

this adjustment back so the US and the

53:42

second question there is one of your

53:43

books which is not political which I

53:45

really love I read it a long time ago

53:48

it’s called blood matters and it’s about

53:52

genetics and your personal journey and

53:54

right now I understand that it’s very

53:56

important to write political books but

53:59

I’m wondering whether you are thinking

54:01

about writing in non political book

54:04

again Wow

54:07

great question so

54:10

to the question of how the adjustment

54:12

has been coming back here so I first

54:16

came here as a teenager in 1981 and then

54:19

I went back to the Soviet Union actually

54:22

is a correspondent in 1991 and stayed

54:27

until December 2013 and then came back

54:31

here but all along I was writing in both

54:34

English and Russian and writing books in

54:37

English so for me coming back was

54:41

actually it has actually been great it’s

54:46

it’s it’s been a homecoming in a way I

54:49

live in New York City which I love I’ve

54:53

had a very rewarding career for the last

54:56

four years I’ve yeah I mean it’s it’s

55:02

it’s it’s been wonderful what has been

55:04

and and I have to say that emigrating

55:08

when you have a choice about it is

55:10

definitely I mean even though I didn’t

55:13

have much of a choice about the timing

55:15

of leaving Russia we had to get out in a

55:18

hurry but but I made that decision

55:20

myself unlike the first time when my

55:22

parents made the decision for me and I

55:24

was just resentful and miserable and but

55:30

this time I brought my teenage children

55:32

very resentful and miserable and I can’t

55:38

blame them because I know exactly what

55:40

it feels like and and I have to say that

55:43

there’s a peculiar difficulty actually

55:45

to have to have a family in which four

55:47

people emigrate it my partner and my

55:51

three kids and I came home and it’s

55:55

that’s that’s really been a struggle

55:57

because I think for at least for for

56:01

people who emigrate as difficult as it

56:03

is there’s also kind of a rewards ladder

56:06

right because you go from you know

56:08

working illegally under the table to

56:10

actually having a regular job to them

56:11

finding a job in your field there’s a

56:14

Rapids kind of growth that compensates

56:16

for that loss of social networks and

56:19

social status that that people

56:22

inevitably Experion

56:23

when they emigrate and and I deprived my

56:27

family of that because we came here

56:29

quite comfortably bought a house and I

56:32

moved in

56:32

but the misery of this location is still

56:36

there and there’s nothing you can do

56:37

about it and to answer your your

56:41

question about whether I’m thinking of

56:42

writing a personal book I am thinking of

56:44

writing a personal book and but it’s

56:49

like years down the road if I do write

56:52

it it will be a book about emigration

56:57

and gender

57:01

hi um thank you for coming my question

57:06

is I was wondering if you were able to

57:07

get outside of Moscow and to some of the

57:09

other cities and whether you were able

57:10

to talk with some of the various other

57:12

ethnic groups in Russia and what were

57:14

your experiences things well I mean in

57:18

in my work as a journalist in Russia I I

57:22

was mostly a roving reporter and I

57:25

traveled all over the country and and

57:28

did a lot of reporting on from different

57:32

cities including a lot of reporting on

57:34

[Music]

57:36

non-russian ethnic groups and non

57:39

Orthodox Christians this book is built

57:43

around seven particular people one of

57:47

whom two of whom are not from Moscow and

57:51

the rest of whom are from Moscow they

57:55

said one of them grew up in a provincial

57:58

well a large but but you know I

58:02

shouldn’t know he didn’t start out in a

58:03

large city he started out in a very

58:05

small town provincial town then moved to

58:07

a larger provincial city and I had to

58:10

actually flee Russia all together and he

58:13

is I think he’s an absolutely

58:15

extraordinary character a young young

58:18

academic who was very hopeful just just

58:21

a few years ago started the first Gender

58:24

Studies Centre at a Russian University

58:26

and and had really found himself in

58:29

academia and then a couple years later

58:32

but later was running for his life and

58:34

now lives in New York and another of the

58:37

characters has burst himselves daughter

58:39

who grew up also in a provincial city

58:41

but a very large one usually Nova cadets

58:43

Jean Anjum Silva and she also has had to

58:46

leave the country

58:48

following her father’s assassination we

58:51

have time for three more quick questions

58:55

I am Julie I’m trying to figure out

58:57

exactly how to word this but I work for

58:59

LGBT rights and it’s been really

59:01

shocking for me I did not expect Trump

59:03

to come after the LGBT community the way

59:04

he has and then you know but the release

59:07

of the D the Department of Health and

59:09

Human Services plan which is basically a

59:11

fundamentalist plan yesterday I’m

59:14

wondering with both Putin and Trump how

59:18

core you think misogyny and homophobia

59:21

is to their how they function and how it

59:26

ties in with their political worldview

59:27

or not is it kind of coincidental I mean

59:30

you talked a lot about traditional

59:31

values but a little more about that role

59:34

the role those blue you know that’s a

59:37

really interesting question because I’m

59:39

and I’ve I’ve actually puzzled over this

59:43

American obsession with core values like

59:48

why do we care if somebody is deeply

59:52

racist if they behave like a racist why

59:55

do we care if somebody is deeply

59:57

homophobic if they if they’re president

60:00

and they encourage homophobic policies

60:02

you know or launched an anti-gay

60:04

campaign it doesn’t matter you know what

60:07

matters is what they actually do and

60:10

what becomes our observed reality our

60:12

observed reality is that this president

60:14

is the Trump I mean but they are the one

60:19

in Russia to is is going after LGBT

60:25

people in a fairly conservative manner

60:27

right I have my ideas about why he’s

60:31

doing it I think because for someone

60:34

like him and this was calculable and

60:36

actually I wrote about this very early

60:39

on in July of 2016 I wrote that he was

60:42

going to reverse progress on LGBT rights

60:45

because for someone like him it makes

60:51

sense to reverse the most pronounced

60:54

most recent most rapid social change in

60:57

this country and that concerns LGBT

60:59

rights and it doesn’t matter how he

61:01

feels about LGBT people and whether all

61:03

of his best friends are gay it really

61:05

makes no difference right

61:07

his power is largely based on his

61:11

ability to demonstrate that he is

61:14

serious about taking people to the past

61:17

and that will necessarily involve

61:21

reversing progress on LGBT rights and I

61:23

think we should expect a lot more

61:25

attacks on that front hi my name is

61:30

Nancy oops

61:34

have the economic sanctions that the

61:37

West has imposed and/or the Magnitsky

61:39

Act provided any constraints on Putin

61:45

and his regime and those around him I

61:50

think so and I also I I’m trying to be

61:55

like a broken record and saying I don’t

61:56

think this is a great question but this

61:59

is this is the way we normally pose the

62:01

question right we normally ask but the

62:03

sanctions are effective and you know

62:08

it’s a perfectly reasonable question of

62:09

course but I also think that when we

62:12

when you deal with someone like Putin

62:13

who’s basically intractable right that

62:17

question can also lead to to illogical

62:20

dead-end right because if there is no

62:23

way to influence his behavior then

62:25

there’s no way to influence his behavior

62:26

so what’s the point of sanctions well

62:28

the point of sanctions is that they’re

62:30

the right thing to do because it is the

62:33

wrong thing to do to do business with

62:35

with the bloody dictator it is the wrong

62:38

thing to do to allow you know him and

62:42

his people to to invest their money here

62:48

and to launder their money here so

62:51

whether or not we can see that we can

62:54

observe the strategic results from

62:56

sanctions sanctions are the right thing

62:58

to do

63:01

my name is George just one question what

63:04

happens after Putin oh well that’s

63:10

that’s an easy one um I have no idea but

63:18

um but actually there’s there’s a

63:21

wonderful book that’s just out in

63:22

paperback that is weirdly relevant to

63:26

that question and the book is called the

63:28

last days of Stalin have you read it it

63:31

was great

63:32

and it’s Joshua Rubinstein it says it’s

63:35

a slim book and it’s amazing you read it

63:39

and and I mean the part that that that

63:42

has to do with how the US foreign policy

63:45

establishment was worried that after

63:47

Stalin died the hardliners might come to

63:49

power that really I thought that was

63:53

really amazing and so it really puts

63:57

into perspective similar fears that have

63:59

been voiced repeatedly in this country

64:03

but I also the other thing that that has

64:06

direct implications for today is that he

64:10

is documented in how much disarray the

64:12

Soviet Union was and how Americans

64:16

looking at it couldn’t believe that it

64:18

was in that much disarray and kept

64:19

looking for sort of hidden meanings and

64:21

hidden strategies and actually what had

64:24

happened was that Stalin had planned to

64:25

live forever

64:26

there was no succession plan nobody knew

64:30

what was happening and how they should

64:31

act and anything was possible and I

64:35

think something similar is going to

64:37

happen after Putin Dyke’s he definitely

64:39

planned plans to live forever

64:43

there will be no succession plan I mean

64:45

I’m assuming that there will be his

64:47

death that that will end putinism if

64:50

it’s something else it will not be

64:51

dissimilar it will also we’ll know when

64:53

it happens right it’s a closed system

64:54

but but there will be disarray one

64:57

prediction that I feel confident enough

64:58

making is that I don’t think that Russia

65:01

will stay in its current borders when

65:03

after Putin it’s there’s so much sort of

65:10

outward tension at this point Huson has

65:12

managed to put so much pressure

65:13

on various constituent members of the

65:16

Russian Federation and pumped them for

65:19

money and/or to the opposite of money

65:25

into supporting friendly dictators and

65:28

in in various places once he is gone so

65:31

the those tensions will come to the

65:34

surface and various places will various

65:37

parts of Russia will break up so we’ll

65:40

we’ll see major rearrangement mom he’s

65:42

done all right

65:44

thank you so much for coming

65:55

you

66:04

you