Supply-Sided Environmentalism

Tax Cuts: a Virtuous Cycle

One of the most appealing things about supply-sided economics is that its proponents describe a feedback loop that transforms taxcuts, which are commonly thought of as “costing money”, into a source of new revenue (when measured through a larger economic base).

Energy Efficiency: a Virtuous Cycle

Though their isn’t anything “supply”-based about some environmentalist’s proposals for increased energy efficiency, is see an interesting parallel.

Increased Energy efficiency is normally thought of as an increasing cost to get a reduced benefit. Think of home insulation and improved windows.

Improved windows and more insulation cost more money; and as the desired energy savings increases, the cost increases, so as to be of diminishing value.

Like the supply siders, Amory Lovins looks for circumstances in which evaluations of individual actions within the traditional model don’t hold true for their effect on the system as a whole.

If Lovins were building a home, he would measure the future savings from the improved insulation and windows, but he would not stop there. Instead, he would analyze the effect of those savings on other parts of the
system.

Would the improved insulation and windows allow him to buy a smaller furnace and air conditioning unit? If so, he could take the savings from the air conditioning unit and furnace and plow it back into even better windows and insulation. Perhaps he would spend the money on more design, so that the south side of
the house would take better advantage of passive heating principles. Lovins would continue to iterate through this process, continually looking to pass on savings to other parts of the system.

Tunneling Through the Costs

Lovins describes his technique as “tunneling through the costs”, where he takes a graph for which cost-effectiveness has seemly been maximized, and demonstrates that higher energy saving can be advanced by eliminating one of the system’s assumptions, such as reducing or eliminating the heating or cooling system.

The New York Times ran a story recently about Passive Solar Houses in Germany in which the the need for a
furnace had been reduced or eliminated, freeing up money to be put to alternate uses.

Time magazine recently ran a cover story titled “America’s Untapped Energy Resource: Boosting Efficiency“.

It seems that the concept of reducing costs by optimizing an entire system would be attractive to many people; and unlike supply-sided economics, its effectiveness should be testable on the small scale.

Note:

For those who have an unfavorable view of “supply-sided” economics, I’m not trying to disparage Amory Lovin’s approach. The actual benefit of taxcuts can be debated. Rather, I think it would be interesting for those who like the idea of supply sided economics to consider the practicality of “Tunneling through” barriers to efficiency.

Is Oil A National Security Issue?

In an interview with two former Secretaries of State, Charlie Rose asked the question “Is oil a national security issue?”.

It is interesting that both said yes, and specifically the way that James Baker described how it has been recognized as official policy for at least 3 of the 4 presidents he served under.

Charlie Rose: “..Most people now consider it, with oil now at $140 a barrel, a national security issue. Do you?..

Warren Christoper: Oh, there is no doubt that our energy is a national security issue and will be for a long time ahead..

James Baker: “Energy has been a national security priority for a long time Charlie. I served in 4 administrations and I know for a fact that in 3 of those we had national security decision directives that said we would go to war in effect to protect our access to the energy reserves of the Middle East and and we in effect did that at one point..”

  • Charlie Raises the Question: 27:10
  • James Baker’s Response: 27:57-28:47
  • Carter Doctrine

Bike Light Review: Dinotte 600L headlight and taillight

One of the things I really like about the web is doing research and finding products and companies that are doing a good job. Negative reviews “exposing” bad stuff can help you avoid making a mistake, but the positive reviews are the most helpful because they give you confidence that you’ve found a decent option. It’s with this spirit in mind that I share with you my experience with the Dinottee 600L headlight and taillight.

I first was drawn to the Dinotte line of lights by reviews of their taillight –which was described as the brightest available.

EXTREMELY bright. There is no way a car won’t see you. This tail light is far and away the brightest, most attention-getting example I have seen. The instructions even caution you to mount it to prevent aiming it directly at the drivers behind you! After years of wondering if the cars coming up behind me actually notice my tail

light, I now have confidence they do. What a great feeling!

This tail light is unbelieveably bright!

People have told me that at several hundred yards it still looks “like a star or constellation”

You won’t be disappointed with the brightness and there is no reason I can think of why you would need a brighter taillight, although Dinotte does make a ~600 lumen taillight.

The biggest downside to this light is cost, but I’m of the belief that if cyclists want to be treated as vehicles, they should make an effort to be visible at night. For a commuter, think of it as insurance. These lights will probably
come down in price over the next few years as LED technology improves. The Dinnote package is one of the first lights that performs like a bike light should.

The second potential downside is mounting options. I have a rack on the back of my bike and my bag blocks the normal seapost mount that Dinotte includes in their package.

I did a little bit of research and built myself a saddle mount for my light. It’s based on a MinouraSBH-300 water bottle cage holder that mas been sawed off below the first screw hole. A 1 inch thick PVC pipe (less than $.50) is screwed into the top water bottle mounts, creating a very solid mounting platform.
This design will not work if your seat isn’t very high above your bag.
(For a rack option, see further below)

The 600L headlight is also very bright. The first night I got it, I charged it up, used it for 10-15 minutes as recommended, charged it again, used it for 1 hour, and then charged it fully.

I was experimenting with the blink mode as I was riding and watching the speed limit signs 200 meters ahead flash in the distance. My father happend to be walking through town and thought he saw police flashers coming from around the bend in the road. I now only use flash mode when it is dusk; otherwise I think I’m beyond the point of visibility and becoming more of a distraction.

The big advantance of the 600L over HID and halogen systems is the battery life — 3.5 hours on high and 7 hours on medium with the lithium ion batteries. Bulb life is also a big advantage– LED bulbs typically last thousands of hours and are less vulnerable to breakage. Medium brightness is plenty bright for typical road riding, but the battery time is long enough that I’m able to use the high beam for my commute to work (19 miles each way). One time after an extra long day, I forgot to charge my batteries and I still made it through the second day (I used flash mode a lot because it was slightly after dawn and just before dusk).

One of the questions I had when ordering the headlight was whether the beam pattern would be wide enough to take a steap downhill S-turn that is part of my route. I considered the wide lens option, but their excellent support guy, Rob, counseled against it for the road. I took that S-turn at 25 mph one night during a new moon and I was impressed. I have no need for the wide lens, although it is option for mountain bike riders.

Batteries: I chose the 4 cell lithium ion batteries. They are quite small, and I’d go with the 4 cell option unless you’re mounting the light and battery both to your helmet, rather than the bike. (Helmet mounting is an option I haven’t tried). I debated going with rechargable AA batteries, but I’m glad I chose the lithium ion. The run time is much longer and you can run both lights off of a single battery or use two batteries. If you carry your connector cord and one of your batteries runs out, you could run both lights off the second battery. One thing you might also consider is buying a second charger — that way you can run both lights on their own battery and charge both overnight with their own charger. It only takes 4 hours to charge, but it’s nice not to have to remember to switch batteries later in the evening. You’ll notice that the batteries mount to the tob tube or seat tube with velcro straps. It’s very convenient to recharge them — just detach the cord from the light, unvelcro the battery from the tube and connect to the charger. You’ll notice the cord doesn’t unplug from the light very easily, but that’s a good thing. My mom’s earlier light tended to loose its connection periodically as she rode.

I was so impressed with my lights that I got together with my brother and dad to get my mom a new set. We had to devise an alternate rack mount for her because she has a rack-mounted bag and her seat isn’t as high as mine. Fortunately we were able to mount another trusty PCV pipe on the back of her Trek 520 rack. It’s just a 4 or 5 inch long piece of PVC pipe with a slit cut in it. My brother packed it full of rubber strips from an old bike tire. We drilled holes in it and secured it to the rack with an old shoe lace. It’s not going to win any design awards, but with the help of the animated knots website, we were able to tie some sort of knot to keep it in place.

I’m the type of person who likes to open the box and start using my new purchase right away. I had scanned the directions (available online before you buy), but I hadn’t fully read them. It took me about 3 minutes to realize that my superficial reading was inadequate to correctly cycle between the light modes and to turn the light on and off. I went back inside and read the directions again. Ahah! To turn it on, click the left button twice!

When you first receive your light, you may find yourself seeking out the darkest country roads and alleys in your town. The night after I recieved my mom’s light, I was running it through it’s initial charging process,
when I thought I saw a black cat cross the road in front of me in the distance. I’m not superstitious, so even though the “cat” was on the right hand shoulder, I was about to continue on. But as I got closer, I realized that the “cat” was actually a skunk!

With a lesser light, I might not have detected the difference until it was too late. I slowed down dramatically, rode on the other side of the road, and continued on my way. There’s more than cars and branches to look out for at night!

Alternatives: I don’t know of anything comporable to the tail light. I have a Cateye LT1000 that I’m thinking of mounting as a backup, but it doesn’t compare in brightness. For the headlight, the NightRider TriNewt is a
bright LED (500 lumens) that lasts a long time. If the Dinotte were unavailable, I would consider it, but the Dinotte is brighter (at least by spec: 600 lumens), the same price, and the lithium ion batteries can be swapped or shared with the tail light. For a cheaper headlight, I’d consider the 200 L. I haven’t tried it, but its probably pretty bright as well.

Related

This Headline Suggested by Google

Earlier this month, after returning from a backpacking vacation outwest, I searched for the right words to describe my feelings. One week I was wading in a glacial lake at 9,000 feet with snow capped peaks towering above me. The next week I was back in my cubicle with phones ringing from 3 directions.

Photo: Pear Lake, Sequoia National Park, California, Credit Daniel Miller

Photo: Daniel Miller

Previous generations of writers turned the dictionary and thesaris, but
my generation has “google suggests“.

Google suggests is the dropdown box that appears in my browser as I type search terms. If I type “american”, google suggests:

  • american idol
  • american airlines
  • american express
  • american eagle ..

If I type “post vacation”, google suggests:

  • post vacation depression
  • post vacation blues
  • post vacation rentals

Well, “depression” may be a little strong, but “blues”, yes.

Seriously, google suggests is not a replacement for the thesarus becaused it’s designed for search, not general use. But it could be. And it’s interesting to think about how technology that was originally designed for a specific purpose could turn into something larger.

google adwords

Take google adwords. Google adwords was originally designed to display taylored ads in the right hand margin of search results. Mouse click-through rates are logged and totaled, allowing better-performing ads to be displayed more often and unclicked ads to be dropped from the rotation.

This sort of performance tracking is a revolution in the advertising business and is probably making inroads in the newspaper business as well.

Online Newspaper editors can track what stories are most read. They can also experiment with alternate headlines, if their software supports an adwords-type click analysis.

Of the first 100 people to view a New York Times article, the first 50 could be given one headline. The other 50 people would see an alternate headline. The system could track click-through rates and the winning headline would then be show to a majority of subsequent visitors.

I wonder whether an online publication is already doing this sort of thing. If they aren’t, I suspect some newspaper will start in the near future.

It’s been over a month and I’m over my “post vacation blues”, but I’m still intrigued by the idea of performance-tested writing. Does performance testing (or rather popularity-testing) really improve the quality of newspaper headlines? The collaborative news site Reddit would be a good place to test the concept.

Reddit currently gives article submissions a single title field, yielding submissions that range from self-help, to outrage, to overly verbose:

  • “7 Secrets of the Super Organized”
  • “Pit bull owner shoots man for trying to stop pit bull attack”
  • ‘”IMPEACH CHENEY IF YOU WANT, but do bear in mind that he’ll preside over his own impeachment trial”‘

Actually its not so much just headlines, but the content too. Performance-tested headlines drive traffic, which drives story selection. But direct democracy isn’t always a good thing. Think of it as an “invasive species” that destroys an ecosystem if not properly balanced.

Newspaper editors and sites like Reddit will have to maintain standards or develop moderating systems to prevent the sensational, but popular, from taking over. Think of it as a “national park system” for writing