Could it be that opponents of the deal actually believe this, a Persian North Korea, is a better outcome than a vibrant, successful regional power without nukes.
.. but if you look at the impact on regional players (Israel, Saudi, Turkey), there is a rational argument that a weak nuclear armed Iran is preferable to an economically strong and diplomatically active Iran without nuclear weapons, pursuing regional domination.
.. what the anti-deal side may be most afraid of isn’t that the deal will fail because of Iran cheating. It may be that they are afraid of what will happen if it succeeds as intended and changes the status quo in the region with Iran gaining stronger international ties and diplomatic leverage.
.. What people who oppose the deal say they want is ‘a better deal’ but they said that with Healthcare after doing nothing on healthcare, after being okay with how things were.
.. Ultimately, I think people opposed to the deal need to be honest about what they want and it’s not a better deal and it isn’t stronger sanctions. It’s what we had before. An Iran that was more isolated and had a hostile interaction with the United States.
Why Iran’s Anti-Semitism Matters
A few days ago, I spoke with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry about the politics of the Iran deal (you can find the full interview here), and at one point in our conversation I put to Kerry what I thought was—to be honest—something of a gimme question: “Do you believe that Iranian leaders sincerely seek the elimination of the Jewish state?”
Kerry responded provocatively—provocatively, that is, if you understand Iranian leaders, and in particular the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the way I understand them: as people theologically committed to the destruction of Israel. Quotes such as this one from Khamenei help lead me to this conclusion: “This barbaric, wolflike, and infanticidal regime of Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated.”
.. Kerry’s understanding, in shorthand: Iran is dangerous to Israel at this moment (he repeated the term “at this moment” in his next statement, in fact); Iran has had plenty of opportunity to hurt Israel but has chosen not to; and, finally, the answer to the question concerning the true intentions of Iran’s leaders when it comes to Israel is unknowable, and also irrelevant to the current discussion.
.. the president said. “I take what the supreme leader says seriously. I think his ideology is steeped with anti-Semitism, and if he could, without catastrophic costs, inflict great harm on Israel, I’m confident that he would. But as I said, I think, the last time we spoke, it is possible for leaders or regimes to be cruel, bigoted, twisted in their worldviews and still make rational calculations with respect to their limits and their self-preservation.”
.. the third is that supporters of the deal appear to be as sure of their position as those who supported the Iraq War (yours truly among them) were of theirs.
What Lindsey Graham Fails to Understand About a War Against Iran
The most important hidden problem, exposed in the war-game discussions, was that a full assault would require such drawn-out preparations that the Iranian government would know months in advance what was coming. Its leaders would have every incentive to strike pre-emptively in their own defense.
.. Here the United States faces what the military refers to as a “branches and sequels” decision—that is, an assessment of best and second-best outcomes. It would prefer that Iran never obtain nuclear weapons. But if Iran does, America would like Iran to see itself more or less as India does—as a regional power whose nuclear status symbolizes its strength relative to regional rivals, but whose very attainment of this position makes it more committed to defending the status quo. The United States would prefer, of course, that Iran not reach a new level of power with a vendetta against America. One of our panelists thought that a strike would help the United States, simply by buying time. The rest disagreed.
.. Lindsey Graham’s notion that the question of war between America and Iran is coherently reducible to “we win” or “they win” is facile, dangerous, and especially galling from a man who ought to have learned better from the last war he urged. Even the most severe Iranian losses would not necessarily mean that “we win.”
Why the Naysayers Are Wrong About the Iran Deal
Obama pretends that the alternative to this deal is war. No, the alternative is increased economic pressure until Iran yelps for surrender.As Marco Rubio puts it, “Give Iran a very clear choice: You can have an economy or you can have a weapons program.”
.. We have a glimpse of what might happen. In 2003, Iran seemingly offered a comprehensive “grand bargain” to resolve relations with the United States, but George W. Bush’s administration dismissed it. Since then, Iran has gone from a tiny number of centrifuges to 19,000, getting within two months of “breakout” to a nuclear weapon. The point: Fulmination is not a substitute for policy, and a multilateral international agreement achieves far more protection than finger-wagging.
.. So we apply the same economic pressure that caused the collapse of the Castro regime in Cuba in 1964? The same isolation that overthrew the North Korean regime in 1993? The same sanctions that led Saddam Hussein to give up power peacefully in Iraq in 2000? Oh, wait.…
.. The truth is that the US is getting the better end of this deal. We give up basically nothing and ensure a long cooling off period in which Iran can’t realistically develop nuclear weapons without advanced notice. There is no possible deal that could prevent them from developing nukes forever. Even war probably wouldn’t prevent that. The only realistic way to prevent it in the long run is to convince Iran not to want one by offering them something they want more – economic integration with the rest of the world.