00:05
you guys have done a great job
00:07
on the reopening emily and i had some
00:09
great conversations yesterday which i
00:10
might hit on here but um
00:12
yeah the day-to-day i mean has anything
00:14
changed or are we still reopening so in
00:16
answer to your question is the reopening
00:18
still happening
00:19
yes and unlike a lot of other sectors
00:22
it’s going to happen
00:23
slowly and over a long period of time
00:27
the hospitals are going to
00:28
make a lot of money because
00:31
their
00:32
per unit prices are going to go up
00:36
as long as the insurance companies can’t
00:38
keep up which
00:39
in the battle between insurance
00:40
companies and hospitals hospitals always
00:42
win and we covered this yesterday and i
00:44
put a replay
00:45
uh out yesterday afternoon um that
00:49
covers you know most of uh most of this
00:52
but
00:53
you know one of the and bob rich i know
00:55
is going to bring me a very
00:57
inspirational cartoon
00:58
on this topic but
01:00
what you have in healthcare is
01:04
high demand
01:05
and building
01:06
and it is that the pipeline that that
01:12
health care has to get through the
01:14
demand is smaller so you have a demand
01:17
and supply imbalance which is not
01:19
something we think about in health care
01:22
because the capacity is what the
01:23
capacity is and that’s defined by labor
01:26
and if you don’t have people you don’t
01:29
have
01:30
supplies you don’t have uh you can’t
01:32
meet demand and one of the like one of
01:34
the anecdotes at dinner in new york one
01:37
of the uh anecdotes was this form a
01:40
medical device guy is like yeah we’ve
01:43
got
01:44
we can put our devices together but the
01:46
docs can’t find a nurse to help them in
01:48
the or
01:49
so we’re sales are soft
01:53
and you get to see that
01:55
ripple through but it’s not going to be
01:57
uniform because people you know the high
01:59
acuity cases like cancer treatment you
02:01
know and and cancer testing those guys
02:05
are those people are first in mind
02:06
whereas that bad knee of yours um is
02:10
probably gonna have to wait so
02:12
um it’s a really really interesting
02:15
period of time and and
02:17
as i’ve said on the call we’re long past
02:20
thinking of this as if we were reopening
02:22
restaurants this is not what’s going on
02:24
you know we we have supply constraints
02:27
that are durable we have demand that is
02:30
high and rising
02:31
and and that is not something that can
02:33
be easily fixed in in months it’s
02:37
probably years and it’s going to
02:38
transform the whole system as a result
02:41
that sounds kind of like a downer but
02:43
it’s really kind of exciting
02:46
well you gave me the real downer
02:47
yesterday when you said look there could
02:49
be 30 40 50 million people that died due
02:51
to covid instead of the reported five
02:53
million i mean that that’s that’s a real
02:55
downer that’s terrible um
02:57
but all that you know fully loaded which
02:59
was a
03:00
really insightful discussion that you
03:02
provided both our clients but
03:05
and me yesterday like because you were
03:06
in the office which was nice to see you
03:08
been forever uh
03:12
you know for people that just sit there
03:14
with their intellectual note the
03:15
intellect they sit there and with their
03:17
nose and their deflation books and just
03:20
keep you know
03:21
meandering in their own heads um the
03:23
rest of us actually like
03:25
you know no offense to david rosenberg
03:26
but he sits in a room by himself all day
03:28
long i mean it’s it’s like you know with
03:29
the rest of us actually for 80 person
03:31
team working uh working more and more
03:33
together every day in person that’s
03:35
that’s what’s going on in the real world
03:36
david um you know rents are at new highs
03:39
you said that they weren’t even up um
03:41
you said that inflation was going to be
03:42
cut in half by the fourth quarter it’s
03:44
going up and it’s just this is reality
03:45
it’s not critical it’s just calling you
03:47
out um but
03:48
but emily’s point and the client calls
03:51
that diner and i were on yesterday and
03:52
we will be on again back to back back
03:54
today a lot of clients are really really
03:57
digging in on this supply chain
03:59
bottleneck that’s the latest thing right
04:01
everybody’s in a supply chain bottleneck
04:03
and it’s kind of hard
04:04
to tell
04:06
you know where people wash out on this i
04:08
mean it’s generally hard to read a room
04:10
when there’s nobody in the room like
04:11
we’re doing calls right we’re not
04:12
sitting in front of you know 80 people
04:14
at blackrock but um
04:16
it’s hard to tell where people like i
04:18
could feel people are very nervous in
04:20
some cases are excited about the quarter
04:21
because there’ll be winners and losers
04:23
in that quad 3 that we had in q3 but in
04:25
q4 it’s a lot easier to see with the
04:27
reopening you know bottlenecks plus
04:29
growth slowing q3 quad 3 that was bad
04:33
right uh bottlenecks coming unglued and
04:36
reopening is good that’s quad 2. so
04:39
i’m trying to make it as simple as i can
04:41
um
04:42
and i think that people could struggle
04:44
with
04:45
having an actual process struggle with
04:46
communicating um but
04:49
i i think i’m clear on this so thank you
04:51
for
04:52
being additive to that the of course the
04:54
point on um labor lost again human life
04:58
if the number really is you know
05:01
four or five ten times what it’s
05:02
reported by governments worldwide you
05:05
know that’s that’s inflationary you know
05:07
these people whether it be in vietnam
05:08
vietnam or indonesia or wherever i mean
05:10
look at the chart of cotton today that
05:12
is that is a vertical pattern okay um
05:15
this is not they said yesterday said it
05:17
again you know one by one commodities um
05:20
through bottlenecks on the labor side or
05:22
through the supply chain or not that is
05:24
inflation that you need to be long
05:26
enough okay
05:27
so where i could be wrong is that it’s
05:29
not quad 2 it’s quad 3 still which is
05:31
fine because my inflation book works
05:32
wonderfully right now but again i
05:34
digress we’ll keep we’ll keep on this
05:36
one emily this is a really good um
05:38
fact-finding mission for humanity really
05:39
a little depressing
05:41
but uh but yeah you’re you’re you’re
05:44
absolutely right
05:45
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05:47
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05:49
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05:50
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05:52
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05:54
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05:56
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05:58
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06:13
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