In a post on LinkedIn the other day, Ray Dalio, one of the world’s richest and most successful hedge-fund managers, offered some thoughts on the incoming Trump Administration. If “you haven’t read Ayn Rand lately, I suggest that you do as her books pretty well capture the mindset,” Dalio, the founder and chief executive of Bridgewater Associates, wrote. “This new administration hates weak, unproductive, socialist people and policies, and it admires strong, can-do, profit makers. It wants to, and probably will, shift the environment from one that makes profit makers villains with limited power to one that makes them heroes with significant power.”
.. his unvarnished post reflects the reality that Donald Trump, after running as an economic populist and tribune of the working stiff, has stuffed his Cabinet with billionaires, bankers, and conservative political ideologues. “This will not just be a shift in government policy, but also a shift in how government policy is pursued,” Dalio wrote. “Trump is a deal maker who negotiates hard, and doesn’t mind getting banged around or banging others around. Similarly, the people he chose are bold and hell-bent on playing hardball to make big changes happen in economics and in foreign policy (as well as other areas such as education, environmental policies, etc.).”
.. “Animal spirits” is a term from Keynes, not Rand. In his 1936 book, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” the English economist used it to describe “a spontaneous urge to action” on the part of business people, one based on a general outlook of optimism rather than an individual cost-benefit analysis. One reason the U.S. economy has grown relatively slowly over the past eight years is that corporations have been sitting on their cash rather than investing it in things like factories, offices, and new equipment—a failure widely attributed to depressed animal spirits. Once Trump takes office, the mood may change dramatically, Dalio argued.
.. It is the sort of Randian analysis long favored by many people on Wall Street, and recently promoted by some of Trump’s closest economic advisers: if you want capitalism to work more effectively, offer greater rewards to the capitalists. Cut taxes, rein in regulation, and create an environment that incentivizes financial risk-taking. The free market—or, rather, the John Galts who inhabit the free market—will do the rest.
.. Because the U.S. tax code is riddled with loopholes, the tax rate that big businesses actually pay isn’t anything like thirty-five per cent. Between 2008 and 2012, according to a recent study by the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office, they paid a tax rate of about fourteen per cent, on average.
.. Surveys by the Federal Reserve Board and other organizations indicate that the main factor depressing corporate investment has been weak demand.
.. In many cases, companies’ overriding goal is to raise the prices of their stocks, which feature heavily in the remuneration packages of senior executives. Making costly long-term investments can depress earnings and stock prices in the short term.
.. In the twelve-month period that ended in October, companies in the S. & P. 500 spent $556.6 billion on buybacks, according to the research firm FactSet.
.. “the 2004 repatriation tax provision was followed by an increase in dollars spent on stock repurchases and executive compensation.”
.. Goldman predicted that three-quarters of the money that big corporations bring back to the United States next year under the Trump tax plan will end up being spent on stock buybacks.
The Carrier Deal and Trump’s Challenge to Democrats
the public’s attitude toward big businesses and their chief executives was extremely negative. Just twenty per cent of Americans, Greenberg explained, had a positive opinion of C.E.O.s. Many people regarded the country’s top executives as members of a self-enriching élite, which lines its pockets by cutting wages and shifting jobs overseas.
.. “We thought we were running against trickle-down. We now find ourselves running against a nationalist message focussed on making work for people.”
.. Last week, its chief executive, Louis Chenevert, left the company with a retirement package worth a hundred and seventy-two million dollars, most of it in stock and options.
.. shutting it down and moving production to Monterrey, where workers earn about fifty dollars a week, would have juiced United Technologies’ earnings a bit. That, in turn, could have given a boost to the firm’s stock price—and further enriched the huge remuneration packages enjoyed by Chenevert and other top executives.
.. Carrier, however, is still planning to relocate six hundred jobs from the Indianapolis plant to Mexico, plus seven hundred jobs from a second plant in Huntington, Indiana, which will be shut down. Taking the two plants together, more jobs will go than will be saved.
.. “The free market has been sorting it out and America’s been losing,”
.. In his 2012 State of the Union speech, President Obama proposed a series of measures designed to discourage outsourcing. They included eliminating the tax deductions that companies can take when they shift jobs abroad, and expanding tax breaks for investment in domestic manufacturing.
.. the Obama Administration never suggested that it would be possible, or even beneficial, to stop offshoring entirely. Instead, it stressed the need to educate the workforce; develop industries of the future, such as clean energy; and retrain displaced manufacturing workers.
.. since the start of 2009, when Obama took office, the economy has created more than eight hundred thousand manufacturing jobs.