Transcript
00:00this is your stimulus check and secondstimulus check updates and also yourstimulus package update as of WednesdayMay 13th its stimulus update time let’sjump right into the heroes Act this billis called a health and economic recoveryomnibus solutions Act it’s a mouthfullet’s see in further detail what’s inthis here is act stimulus package thatthe Democrats wants so begin yes thereis a second round the stimulus checksfor twelve hundred in the heroes Actyou’ll notice that the majority of theRepublicans are saying that they’recompletely against this however we’regetting mixed messages because PresidentTrump himself said I want to see apayroll tax cut I want to see variousthings that we want referring to theRepublicans I want the workers to betaken care of we’re negotiating with theDemocratsit looks like President Trump is open tothe second stimulus check as long asRepublican priorities are addressedpersonally that sounds like a goodtrade-off to me it it’s not even a tradeoff this is a situation where everybodywins people who are working will payless payroll taxes with the payroll taxcut there’ll be you the worker payingless Social Security Medicare taxes andpeople get a second stimulus check itthat sounds like a good deal I don’t seewhy that’s so hardanother major point is that theDemocrats want the $600 weeklyunemployment benefit extended from July31stto the end of the year to me I thinkthat would be insane to me that’sunthinkable but you got to think is itreally if you’ve been following myvideos I’m covering the reopening ofother countries and other economies andguess what they’re doing in the UnitedKingdom the United Kingdom is extendingtheir furloughed worker program untilthe end of October paying those people 3approximately $3,000 a monththerefore I say don’t rule anything outI don’t want to give anyone false hopebut these are crazy times and they maybe addressed by crazy measures but ifyou do not me I’m all for people beingproductive and working but this time I02:31mean you seriously got to give people a02:33break it’s it’s not the people’s fault02:37for being unemployed or underemployed02:41and for a lot of people this is the02:44first time for a lot of people this is02:46the first time that they’re getting02:47unemployment benefits so this is all new02:50to them to you I mean you complained you02:53can blame the government you can play02:54blame Kovac 19 but personally in my02:57opinion this is just my opinion this02:59this is not a time to blame the people03:01for being unemployed so it’s not really03:04people being lazy or unproductive I mean03:07this due to what’s been happening what03:09happened I just don’t see I don’t see it03:12fair blaming the people for being onunemployment there’s a lot of goodthings in the heroes Act that I totallyagree with such as a ban on the utilitya ban on the utility companies cuttingOff water and electricity during thecrisis but then again there’s a wholebunch of stupid crap there’s a wholebunch of stupid spending that I don’tagree with such as 50 million dollars tothe Environmental Protection ProtectionAgency the EPA to fund programs likeexamining the prevalence of coronavirusand high pollution districts what thehell does that even mean let me repeatthat if you don’t if you didn’t catchwhat I said give 50 million dollars toexamine how prevalence coronavirus is inhigh pollution districts of course ofcourse the corona virus is going to beprevalent in high pollution districtsjust like it’s going to be prevalent inlow pollution districts you don’t needto spend 50 million dollars to figurethat out this is so stupid this is onegood example of something so stupid inthis bill I mean what aboutidiots let me give you a crash course ongovernments kickbacks and politics 101the government gives the government04:31gives 50 million dollars to the epa to04:35investigate how coronavirus is doing in04:39polluted areas if I’m a higher-up at the04:44EPA04:45you know guess what I’m gonna do I’m04:48gonna hire my cousin’s company and I’m04:52gonna pay my cousin’s company a million04:54dollars to do this investigation work04:56and he’s got he’s gonna get paid a04:59million dollars and he’s gonna he’s05:01gonna conclude with his examination05:03report yep05:04there’s coronavirus there it does exist05:07in polluted areas you know that 5005:09million dollars would have been better05:11spent on something more meaningful like05:14on people who actually need the aid all05:19right let’s move on to frigging05:20frustrated there’s also the mandatory05:24masks on Amtrak you’re gonna get a lot05:28of people fighting for their freedoms05:30and liberties and then you’re gonna have05:31people on the other side fighting for05:33safe safety and health health and safety05:37you’re most likely gonna pick a side or05:40you’re gonna be indifferent but I say05:44good luck in trying to change the mind05:46of the opposition this is gonna be a05:48circular circular argument so don’t even05:50try changing the opinion of the05:53opposition on this matter because it’s05:55not gonna work it’s it’s gonna be a05:57circular arguments there’s a 25 billion06:01of funding for the post office however06:05President Trump said he would only06:07support this if the post office decided06:11to raise their rates honestly I haven’t06:16I have not had time to look into this if06:19someone could comment I’d appreciate it06:21if this were the case and you wanted to06:25speculate again please let me know in06:28the comments wouldn’t this be the best06:30time to purchase forever stamps as like06:33an investment and then just resell them06:34on eBay or wherever06:38you know once they raise rates if you06:41could please help me on Kampala I’d06:42appreciate that the centerpiece of the06:45heroes Act is that aid to state and06:49local governments for nearly 1 trillion06:50dollars of the 3 trillion dollar06:52proposal remember this whole this whole06:58Democrat proposal is taking place in the07:00House of Representatives the Republicans07:03who control the Senate they’re saying07:05that would you send us the bill we’re07:07going to shut this down immediately07:09they’re saying that it stands no chance07:12because it doesn’t address the07:14priorities of what the Republicans are07:16looking for so there’s going to be some07:18tense negotiations and as I said before07:21there’s gonna be less bipartisan support07:24compared testing those package one two07:26three and four so they’re saying that07:29this is stimulus package for because07:31there’s stimulus package 1 2 3 and 3.207:33but honestly this is going to be the07:34fifth stimulus package but expect less07:37bipartisan support going back to the07:40stimulus check the original stimulus07:43check for the current stimulus check so07:45stimulus check 1 please update your07:47information in the web portal today by07:49noon otherwise you’re getting a paper07:50stimulus check regarding the PPP loan I07:53know many of you have been funded with07:56SBA PPP loan you’re facing that08:00eight-week time crunch I know many of08:04you are hoping that the new legislation08:05will extend a deadline for you to spend08:07that PPP money on qualified expenses08:10within that eight week window but just08:14to place just to play it safe don’t08:16count on it happening08:17that’s just my recommendation I know08:20today’s videos longer but due to the08:24circumstances and all this news coming08:25out was a longer video so thanks thanks08:29again for joining me today that’s it for08:31today and thanks so much please stay08:32healthy and safe take care
Hi Brian,
Your recent video in which you mentioned a $50 EPA million grant to study covid-19 and pollution got me wondering.
So, I did some googling (covid-19+pollution+study) and found that there actually is real scientific research to be done on the link between covid-19 and pollution.
According to a BBC news article, a 2003 study found that for Sars, an earlier coronavirus, victims were 84% more likely to die if they lived in areas with polluted air.
If this pattern carries over to Covid-19, this might explain why covid-19 deaths were higher in New York City than in some more rural areas.
On the one hand, knowing that pollution may exacerbate covid-19 might make us feel bad because it might make covid-19 deaths feel less random.
On the other hand, if it is true, it could be seen as a positive for those who live in less polluted areas and it could affect how we weight covid-19 trade-offs.
The BBC article I mentioned also links to one of the previously published studies for more details.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200427-how-air-pollution-exacerbates-covid-19I don’t know if that makes you feel any better about the money the government proposes to spend, but I was glad to learn that there was a least a rationale for the study.
Extreme events and how to live with them by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
24:28
is you know okay so there is a severe
error in reasoning and that that you
often hear by people giving you
empirical data and telling you for
example that were idiots to worry about
Ebola that killed two Americans when
more people slept with Kim Kardashian
that year okay so for example and that
was effectively the number they said
that more people slept with Kim
Kardashian in 2014 or worried about
Ebola then died of Ebola for example
right so now and then sometimes you see
numbers like these and this is the kind
of thing that that if you read something
called the New York Times and you still
read that nonsense this kind of stuff
you read in it which is factually right
but bogus okay well and the kind of
thing that teaches and psychology
department that so many Americans die
from eating too many hamburgers smoking
too much alcohol now let’s think about
it in terms of tails if I tell you or
let’s say Steven Pinker give the number
that 3,000 Americans died and their
bathtub every year
okay 3,000 people whereas three or two
have died of Ebola now let’s play
thought experiment if you read in the
papers if you go you know to Mars and
come back
and then read on you know on Google News
that two billion people have died what’s
more likely to have killed them diabetes
obesity is falling the rest stop
sleeping with Kim Kardashian or Ebola
Ebola there we go so you cannot compare
rule number one
thou shalt not compare a multiplicative
fat-tailed process in extremists and in
the sub-exponential class to a thin tail
process that has what we call Chernoff
bounds okay and that is in totally for
mediocre stuff simply because of the
catastrophe principle okay and then we
know for example that is very cheap to
protect yourself from Ebola you see the
probability that people dying from
smoking okay it’s multiplied by 10 next
year is 1 to the 10 – into 10 – 30 the
probability that that the the rate of
people who died from Ebola through
triples is not vastly higher you see so
you cannot compare processes thin tail
to fat tails are not comparable so this
is not empiricism this is called naive
ampere system it’s actually worse okay
so you cannot compare two processes like
these by saying we worry too much about
Ebola in fact we were too much about
diabetes and too little valley bola so
that’s one error of reasoning that comes
from not understanding fat tails now let
me show you the law of large numbers
everything you’ve learned in statistics
is based on a well functioning of a law
of large numbers no all right so in
other words you that as you add
observation this mean that you observe
would be very stable no and the rate is
square root of 2 square root of n number
of observations you agree all right
this is what you have on the left now on
the right for fat tail process the mean
exists but it takes much longer to
observe it
28:10
much longer my only my anymore
28:13
observations okay