Furthermore, giving North Korea a “bloody nose” would probably be interpreted as a prelude to a full-on war for regime change. It would be impossible for the U.S. to credibly signal otherwise once it has already initiated an illegal and unprovoked attack. Once the U.S. initiates the conflict, North Korea has every incentive to cause as much damage as it can on the assumption that this could be their last opportunity. North Korea’s “bloody nose” would almost certainly mean the devastation of Seoul, it might lead to attacks on Japanese and U.S. targets, and it would probably cause a major crisis with China, and that’s one of the least disastrous scenarios.
On top of everything else, the “bloody nose” would not convey the desired message, but would make North Korea cling to its nuclear weapons all the more. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program isn’t going to be “stopped” by an attack like this, so in addition to being illegal and insane it would also be ineffective.
What made North Korea’s weapons programs so much scarier in 2017
If the higher estimate is true, that would mean that North Korea has a bomb almost 17 times the size of the one that was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945.
.. David Wright, co-director of the global security program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said he believes that the Sept. 3 bomb was a “real H-Bomb” — suggesting that North Korea wasn’t lying when it said it had created a two-stage thermonuclear device shortly before this test. If this is true, it shows that North Korea has now mastered the more complicated technology that entered the U.S. and Soviet arsenals in the 1950s after the first wave of nuclear weapons.
.. Such a device dramatically increases the damage that could be inflicted on a city. It also could mean that North Korea’s missile systems can afford to be significantly less accurate when used in a real-life attack because the blast itself would be so much bigger.
.. After failed tests in 2016, North Korea appears to have shut down the Musudan program and replaced it with something better.
.. In just one year, Cotton said, Kim Jong Un has unveiled six new missile systems. In contrast, his father, Kim Jong Il, tested only two new missiles during his time as leader, and North Korean founder Kim Il Sung tested three.
.. North Korea could probably build up to a bigger event: what has been called the “Juche bird,” a test of a missile loaded with a live nuclear weapon, probably above the Pacific Ocean. “A lot of folks in the U.S. have said North Korea still lacks the capability to put it all together,” Cotton said. “North Korea has made several statements suggesting they think they might need to show us once and for all that they do have that capability.”
Tillerson Rules Out a Containment Strategy for North Korea
“Many people have asked the question, ‘Well, why can’t you live with a containment strategy? You lived with it with Russia. You lived with it with China,’” Mr. Tillerson said. “The difference is that with the past behavior of North Korea, it is clear to us that they would not just use the possession of nuclear weapons as a deterrent. This would become a commercial activity for them.”
North Korea Missile Launch Appears Calibrated to Avoid American Military Response
Pyongyang’s test of longest-range missile yet demonstrates advances in campaign to build weapons that can strike U.S.
South Korea’s Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon said at a press briefing that the test was part of North Korea’s efforts “to be recognized as a nuclear state and deal with the U.S. at a higher position.”
Hours after the launch, dictator Kim Jong Un declared that Pyongyang had “finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force,” according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency. North Korea said the missile was fired from a mobile launch system, and that Mr. Kim personally oversaw the test.