From this perspective, the Upper East Side fund-raisers, the Washington interest group conferences and the Alexandria dinner parties that you may have read about over the last few months have already shaped the contours of the race. These are all skirmishes in the so-called invisible primary — the behind-the-scenes competition for elite support — and a clear winner of the invisible primary, when there is one, is usually the strongest contender for the nomination.
.. As the Democrats were in the 1980s, the Republican Party today is deeply factional, split between a relatively moderate establishment and various populist groups, including the religious right, the Tea Party and libertarians, all of which distrust the establishment.
.. The candidates who represent a party’s largest factions often receive widespread media attention, win states and sometimes lead in national polls. But they rarely have any real chance to win the nomination.
.. Then there is Ben Carson, a candidate who has never won a single election or run a large organization but who nonetheless draws strong support from conservative activists.
.. There aren’t analogies to Mr. Dean — let alone to Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann — in the 1980s and 1990s. The rise of Internet fund-raising and organizing, and the advent of super PACs, has made it easier for a candidate to build a viable campaign without broad support among party elites.
.. Yet the fact remains that no one considered a factional candidate at this stage in a campaign has won the nomination.
What is more likely is that these strong factional candidates will shape the opportunities available to more viable options. A strong Mr. Cruz or Mr. Huckabee — or even a Mr. Carson — would be bad news for Scott Walker in Iowa, where evangelicals and self-identified “very conservative” voters make up around half of the likely electorate. A strong Mr. Paul or Mr. Christie could pose a problem for Mr. Bush, who probably needs a strong showing in New Hampshire.
Christie and Rubio face tough odds in Invisible Primary
But if Mr. Bush doesn’t fade quickly, a head-on-challenge from another candidate roughly in the center of the party would be very hard to pull off. It would require an exceptional candidate, one with enough natural appeal among voters to compensate for a disadvantage in the invisible primary, or enough strength in the invisible primary to fight Mr. Bush.