Free Trade Is Not the Enemy

If we don’t set the rules for commerce in the Asia-Pacific region, China will.

.. But if the TPP passes, the poorer countries in the pact will have to conform more to the standards of the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada and South Korea — all signatories to the proposed deal.

 

In ‘Misbehaving,’ an Economics Professor Isn’t Afraid to Attack His Own

The economics profession that Mr. Thaler entered in the early 1970s was deeply invested in proving that it was more than a mere social science. But economic outcomes are the result of human decision-making. To achieve the same mathematical precision of hard sciences, economists made a radically simplifying assumption that people are “optimizers” whose behavior is as predictable as the speed of physical body falling through space.

.. Professor Thaler’s narrative ultimately demonstrates that by trying to set itself as somehow above other social sciences, the “rationalist” school of economics actually ended up contributing far less than it could have. The group’s intellectual denial led to not just sloppy social science, but sloppy philosophy.

.. When businesses use cost-benefit analysis, for instance, they are applying a moral philosophy known as utilitarianism, popularized by John Stuart Mill in the 19th century.

.. Compared against alternative moral philosophies, like those of Kant or Aristotle, Mill has relatively few contemporary adherents in professional philosophical circles. But utilitarianism does have the virtue of lending itself to mathematical calculation. By giving the contentious philosophy a benign bureaucratic name like “cost

 

2% Inflation Rate Target Is Questioned as Fed Policy Panel Prepares to Meet

Higher inflation could disrupt economic activity, but it also would enhance the Fed’s power to stimulate the economy during recessions. And some experts say the struggles of the Fed and other central banks to provide enough stimulus since the Great Recession suggest they could use more room for maneuvering.

.. There is also considerable political opposition to higher inflation. Some conservative economists and politicians argue that central banks should aim to keep inflation well below 2 percent.

.. The case for raising the 2 percent target rests on the counterintuitive idea that moderate inflation is a good thing, helping to grease the wheels of commerce and prevent an outright fall in prices. This is widely accepted by economists. It is the reason that central banks aim for a modest inflation rate, rather than keeping prices at the same level from year to year.

.. “If you really thought that’s the world we’re in because of the demographics or productivity growth — if that’s really what our future holds — I think that’s just a reality that you need to think about monetary policy and its ability to achieve goals,” Mr. Williams said.

.. Ben S. Bernanke, the former Fed chairman, has argued in response to Mr. Summers that rates are being suppressed by a “savings glut” in some countries, notably Germany, that is likely to dissipate as growth improves.

.. Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice chairman, said at a separate I.M.F. event this month that it was important to keep inflation low enough so that people did not need to pay it any attention. At 2 percent annual inflation, it takes about 36 years for a dollar to lose half of its value

.. “When you start getting up to 4 percent inflation you begin to see signs of indexation coming back and a whole host of the inefficiencies and distortions,”