A new report argues that the Republican health law would slash jobs and perhaps trigger a recession.
So how would Trump and his job-creating party feel about a law that costs a million jobs over the next decade and decreases total business activity by hundreds of billions over the same time period?
.. the AHCA would slash total jobs by about a million, total state gross domestic products by $93 billion, and total business output by $148 billion by 2026. Most of those jobs would be shed from the health-care industry, which would contract severely over that frame. Most of the losses in economic activity would come in states that have expanded Medicaid to low-income adults under the Affordable Care Act.
.. This report suggests a net loss of about 700,000 jobs in the health-care sector alone.
.. This report suggests a net loss of about 700,000 jobs in the health-care sector alone.
.. Those contradictions might not matter for the prospects of the law’s passage, though, since it is front-loaded with economic sweeteners that should benefit Republicans in the all-important next two elections.
.. might include provisions like a delay of Medicaid cuts and a restructuring of tax credits that will soften the long-term economic blow of the law.
The Republicans’ War on Medicaid
as incomes have stagnated and health-care costs have accelerated, Medicaid has turned into an essential support mechanism for millions of Americans who can’t be classed as poverty-stricken, strictly speaking, but who also can’t afford to bear the costs of private health coverage.
.. 74.6 million people were enrolled in plans supported by Medicaid or its sibling, the Children’s Health Insurance Program. That’s more than one in five of the U.S. population.
.. sixty per cent of all nursing-home residents now receive some sort of assistance from Medicaid.
Kids are also big beneficiaries: Medicaid and chip now help to provide medical coverage for about a third of all the children in America.
.. the Party doesn’t merely want to roll back the Obamacare reforms; it wants to shrink the entire program, transferring it to the states and imposing tight caps on the payments they receive from the federal government.
.. the bill would reduce over-all federal spending on health care by about $1.1 trillion over ten years. Of that,
- eight hundred and thirty-four billion dollars—fully three-quarters of the savings—would come from cuts to Medicaid.
.. spending on Medicaid would be reduced by a quarter compared to current spending. In the same time period, the number of people covered by Medicaid and chip would fall by about fourteen million
.. Donald Trump appeared to understand this when, from the beginning of his campaign, he promised not to cut Medicaid.
.. If you view the modern G.O.P. as basically a mechanism to protect the wealthy, Medicaid is an obvious target for the Party.
.. recent expansion was financed partly by an increase in taxes on the richest households in the country.
.. They also dislike that it’s working. As medical costs have risen and the private sector has failed to cover an increasing number of Americans, the Medicaid and chip programs have filled some of the coverage gap, and have done so relatively cheaply.
.. For any politician who loathes government interventions in the economy, and whose real goal is to head off socialized medicine, the expansion of Medicaid represents a serious threat.
.. Here is an embryonic single-payer system that is growing fast and could be further expanded pretty easily. That means it has to be crippled now, before it gets more firmly established.
Trump Budget Would Cut Medicaid, Rely on Rosy Growth Projection
White House’s $4.1 trillion spending blueprint relies on economic growth of 3% by 2021
The primary driver of savings in Mr. Trump’s budget comes from more than $800 billion in cuts to Medicaid, the federal-state health program for the poor, despite a pledge from the president on the campaign trail not to touch the program.
.. Mr. Trump’s budget director Mick Mulvaney said Monday much of the savings will come from changes in the GOP’s health-care overhaul bill, which Mr. Trump supports. But the administration’s budget would cut more than $600 billion from Medicaid and the federal Children’s Health Insurance Program on top of the $250 billion saved from repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.
.. Many economists have questioned whether the economy can grow much faster than its current pace without long-term investments in programs that boost worker productivity or help expand the labor force.
.. slash funding for disability insurance by $72 billion. Other spending cuts include $143 billion from changes to student-loan programs, $63 billion in reduced retirement benefits for federal employees, and $38 billion to curb certain farm subsidies.
Trump’s budget takes aim at illegal immigrants by limiting tax credits
Trump’s budget would limit eligibility for the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit to recipients “who are authorized to work in the U.S.”
.. Together, changes to those two programs alone are estimated to save about $40 billion over a decade.
.. The program — commonly known as food stamps — would see a $193 billion cut under Trump’s proposal.
.. Mulvaney said the EITC and child credit would not be available to those without a Social Security number.