First, the shift to electric reduces the mechanical complexity of cars a great deal. No transmission or internal combustion engine means far fewer moving parts. That may also change the sophistication and capital required to design and build cars, which, in turn, may change who can build them and how they get built. Gear boxes and premium sports transmissions turn into software in the same way that electromechanical calculating machines or cameras got turned into software.
.. Second, the rise of on-demand car services changes what it means to own a car and changes who buys them, and that in turn may also change what they look like. These models won’t work for everyone everywhere: there will be a point of equilibrium in each urban area where supply, demand and price stabilize at a sustainable level (after the price wars and sign-up bonuses are gone), and that point of equilibrium will look different in different places. The number of people who stop having a car (or using one) or who stop using public transport will vary, and won’t be universal, but will be substantial.
.. That in turn means that the cars get bought the way Hertz buys cars, or – critically – the way corporate PCs get bought. In this world what matters is ROI and a check-list of features, not flair, design, innovation or fit and finish.
.. That poses a challenge for Apple, and indeed Tesla. If the users are not the buyers, the retracting door handles or diamond-cut chamfers don’t matter.
.. From a technology point of view, what’s really happening is that we move road transport from circuit-switching (with manual switchboard operators) to packet-switching.