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And you begin to have these enormous social fissures– rich and poor, young and old, ideological
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fissures, identity politics, all the rest.
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Until finally, society becomes ungovernable and becomes ripe and vulnerable for the next
29:20
systematic crisis.
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Whether it’s the GFC, or whether it’s I think next time around, I’ll be even worse– particularly
29:26
given kind of the demographic and debt stresses we now face.
29:31
But at that point, suddenly then, the real key point of the fourth turning, and in the
29:36
middle of the fourth turning, is when one side just takes over, right?
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That’s when everyone re-establishes community again.
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And you know, the losers are just pushed out to one side.
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I mean, look at the Civil War– that was a fourth turning.
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GRANT WILLIAMS: Right.
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NEIL HOWE: We’re sitting here right at the divide of the Civil War right here.
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You know, that was– these are Yankees are on this side, these are confederates on this
29:59
side.
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Well, what happened?
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I mean, the South was a pariah for two generations.
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I mean, the South suffered an enormous decline in wealth and income.
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I mean, it took the south many, many decades to ever recover.
30:14
The generation that actually is in the most difficult position is the generation in mid-life
30:21
during the fourth turning.
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That’s you, Grant.
30:23
That’s Generation X. GRANT WILLIAMS: Listen, I feel that already.
30:25
NEIL HOWE: Because you guys are already invested in the old regime.
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You see, when you’re young, you either already have joined the new regime, or you can quickly
30:34
shift, right?
30:35
But you guys already invested.
30:37
This is why John Adams, and George Washington, and all of these what we call Liberty generation
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Americans who are in mid-life during the American Revolution.
30:46
Had such a existential sense of risking everything, because they couldn’t go back, right?
30:56
All of their lives, their property, their sacred honor– it was all on the line.
31:00
And the younger generation– like millennials today– incredibly optimistic.
31:06
I mean, all the younger generation of Jefferson, and Hamilton, and Monroe, and Madison, and
31:11
Jay, and all those guys– they knew the American Revolution was going to win.
31:15
But you know, John Adams is sitting there fearful.
31:17
You know, my god, this is never going to stick together.
31:20
Because the younger generation– because again, they’re young, right?
31:24
They’re going to adapt.
31:25
They can still change.
31:26
They can fit into whatever happens.
31:28
GRANT WILLIAMS: So what happens to that?
31:29
I mean, let’s use the millennial generation as an example.
31:31
That younger generation comes through full of hope, full of optimism, who happen to be
31:36
at the center of this fourth turning with all the chaos, and destruction, and turmoil–
31:41
what tends to happen to them?
31:43
How does that optimism– does it save them?
31:46
Does it get changed?
31:47
NEIL HOWE: Oh, it saves them, because it’s combined with a couple of other things.
31:50
One is community and risk aversion.
31:54
So there’s belief you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.
31:58
GRANT WILLIAMS: Which we’re seeing everywhere.
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NEIL HOWE: Which we’re seeing everywhere.
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And risk aversion, because you risk it.
32:03
Remember- – millennials, have been told they’re special since the time they were born.
32:07
And that means especially take care of yourself, because everyone expects great things from
32:11
you.
32:12
And everyone– you know, your parents, and teachers, and public officials all love you,
32:16
and really care about you.
32:18
And so why take risks with yourself?
32:21
Fourth turnings are so often seen as destructive.
32:22
I mean, wars, financial panics is one.
32:23
GRANT WILLIAMS: That’s how I think of it.
32:26
NEIL HOWE: Well, yeah.
32:27
Of course it’s destructive.
32:28
You know, all this wealth is being uncreated, being torn away.
32:36
All of this just obvious destruction of the old order.
32:39
But it makes room for the new order.
32:43
It makes room for the young.
32:44
And one lesson about history is that one of the things that winter does, is it kills everything
32:51
back so new things can grow.
32:52
That’s why we have forest fires- – so new plants have space to grow up.
32:56
That’s why it suddenly floods down here.
32:58
It does the same thing through the Rio Grande.
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Why?
33:01
So that clearing out all the junk.
33:04
So I think that’s one very important point to remember.
33:08
Forth turnings, although obviously painful for everyone, painful for everyone who particularly
33:13
is invested in the old order, serve a very necessary, almost biological function.
33:18
GRANT WILLIAMS: That’s the word.
33:20
We talk about institutions, and we’re going to go to a place that is filled with not just
33:27
American institutions, but global institutions, a lot of which were set up after the war.
33:31
NEIL HOWE: Absolutely.
33:32
GRANT WILLIAMS: So let’s head into town, because there’s a lot more stuff to see and talk about,
33:36
for sure.
33:37
NEIL HOWE: Let’s go to the nation’s capitol.
33:38
GRANT WILLIAMS: All right, let’s do it.
33:39
In the next episode, Neil and I traveled to Washington DC to look at some previous fourth
33:44
turning, and try to understand what lessons history has to teach us about how these momentous
33:48
events changed the world.
33:50
NEIL HOWE: Look at this monument, you say, this is the birth of a golden age.
33:53
But there’s one thing we forget.
33:55
All the golden ages of history always start with a huge crisis.
34:00
GRANT WILLIAMS: And along the way, we’ll talk with a man who’s been at the very center of
34:04
previous generational change in Washington, Dr. Harald Malmgren.
34:07
HARALD MALMGREN: It’s not something WE think about, but we are edging towards highly concentrated
34:13
power in the hands of few.
34:15
For me, it’s oligarchies.
34:16
I mean, we’re looking a lot like Russia.