The Great Email “Calculation Debate”

Some readers of my proposal for Spam Guarantees believe that my solution is too complex or costly. I concede that simpler approaches, such as authentication will be tried first, and will provide temporary relief, but ultimately a market-based solution will be necessary.

When such a market is created, it will appear gradually, and it will need to use real money, or it will be unable to police fraud.

It will not eliminate all spam, but offer a way for legitimate senders to avoid becoming spam filter false positives.


Friedrich Hayek, Nobel Prize in Economics

Here’s an overview of my views on whether market-based solutions should use “Computer-Time” or “Real Money”. The issue reminds me of Hayek and the “Calculation Debate“.

Anti-Spam Currencies: Computational vs Monetary

Two of the biggest obstacles to implementing a market-based solution to spam are:

  1. Expense: the cost of administering and billing for each email transaction; and
  2. Fraud: the inevitable attempts to capture the newly created currency

Expense

The “computational” school of thought argues that a postage or guarantee system that uses real money will cost too much to administer.

Accounts will need to be created, tracked, and billed. With so many transactions, the overhead will be enormous.

A system that requires computers to solve a math problem will require no accounts, tracking or billing.

Fraud

Both approaches are vulnerable to fraud.

If the system uses real money, hackers will surely attempt to steal a sender’s key and use it like a stolen credit card.

If the system treats computer-time as currency, hackers will surreptitiously commandeer computers to poach the postage.

Scope Modesty: Certified Mail for the Web

With my proposal for email guarantees, I don’t pretend to the immediately eradicate all spam forever. Imagine instead a system that starts as a premium service, much like current-day certified and registered mail.

People and businesses who really value the email they send will set up accounts to guarantee their mail. This will ensure that their messages make it through the spam filters unscathed.

Not all transactions will need to be tracked for billing purposes, only those messages unwanted by their recipients.

Monetary Incentives

Because senders have to pay for “cashed” email, they will limit the unwanted messages they send, limiting the transaction load that their Credit Company needs to process. The Credit Companies can charge a fee to cover the cost of processing the “cashed” email.

To limit the amount of fraud, Credit Companies will track the amount of guarantees that have been collected. Accounts that reach their limit will be frozen.

Credit Companies may offer to absorb the cost of stolen keys, provided that account holders follow certain security practices. If not, the account holder would be liable, up to the limit of their account.

Computational Incentives

In the computational model, senders and computer owners take no responsibility for securing their systems.

A hacker could install a program on my computer that allows him to offload email computations to my computer.

If my credit card is not being charged for the postage he counterfeits, and the hacker is smart enough not to make my system unusable, I am unlikely to devote the resources necessary to:

  • avoid getting the program in the first place
  • removing it, once I have it

Holding someone liable for poor security creates an incentive to limit the exposure of currency and tighten up security.

Some people may decide that their security is so poor that they are unable to offer a guarantee.

Their messages may still make it through the spam filter, but they run a greater risk of being overlooked.

Spam Filtering through Email Guarantees

Technical approaches to spam such as authentication and bayesian analysis are useful in the short term, but ultimately an economic solution is needed.

I propose guaranteed email: email whose sender offers to pay if the recipient is unhappy with the message.

Others have proposed electronic postage as a way to price the junk out of the market. That’s essentially what I propose except

  1. no money changes hands if the recipient is happy with the message.
  2. money is paid to the recipient, rather than a third party like the postal service or Microsoft

Satisfaction Guaranteed

Example

I write an email to Dave Winer.

Dave gets a lot of email and I want my message to stand out from the spam and other unsolicited “great ideas”.

If I were sending Dave a letter, I would be willing to pay the postal service 37 cents; but to make my email stand out I offer 67 cents. Economists call this signaling.

My email client attaches a file to my email and names it guarantee.xml. This file follows a standard format

<guarantee type>

</guarantee type>
    <guarantee amount>

</guarantee amount>
    <signature url>

    </signature url>
    <signature contents>
       </signature contents>

Dave’s email client already has filtering software built-in.
It would take extra programming, but this filtering software could be modified to parse the guarantee.xml file, lookup and verify the signature, and factor-in the guarantee amount.

To increase Dave’s trust that I won’t default on the 67 cents, my Credit Card (or some such) agency signs my key in a similar way that I signed the email, asserting that they will back up any email guarantee, for up to (say) $7.50.

“Cashing” unwanted Email

If Dave “cashes” his email, my Credit card company will bill me. If I don’t pay my bills, they will revoke their signature on my key.

Since there are a smaller number of Credit agencies, Dave’s filtering software can set up a “trusted” set up Guarantors. (This key signing is similar to the way SSL Certificates work).

Email Clients

Ideally every email program will have a button to “cash” an email. Barring that, people could forward the email on to an address to receive payment. Microsoft’s Outlook and Hotmail are the biggest email clients. Plugins to these would go a long way in gaining momentum.

Checks Cashed

Credit Companies

As for the “Credit Companies”, this is the most difficult part of this whole proposal. It’s going to take a company with experience dealing with fraud and billing, who is also willing to deal in small transactions. I think Paypal might be a good fit. They’re not a conventional bank and it would be a great way to add customers.

The upside of this is that they could charge a small percentage for every “cashed” email. That’s gotta be worth something.

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