Trump’s Economic Prescription. First: Do Harm.
Donald J. Trump is positioned to achieve the most radical reshaping of economic policy since Ronald Reagan. Even under Reagan, Republicans never controlled both houses of Congress.
.. if he follows through on his ideas, we could face higher prices on imported goods, rising interest rates, substantial inflation and a further shift of wealth to the upper classes.
.. Lower-income Americans — including Mr. Trump’s core supporters — would be hurt the most because they disproportionately buy less expensive imported items.
.. While some manufacturing jobs might come back as a result of the tariffs, a greater number of domestic jobs would most likely be lost because Americans would have less spending power.
.. rather than bringing jobs back to the United States, Mr. Trump’s tariffs could result in a trade war that would cost our economy five million jobs and possibly lead to a recession.
.. As soon as Mr. Trump’s ascendancy became clear on Tuesday night, interest rates on Treasuries began to rise. Usually, an unexpected event causes a flight to the safety of government debt, pushing yields down. That the opposite occurred reflects fears that the deficit might balloon out of control.
.. As a fiscal conservative, Mr. Ryan is unlikely to accept large tax cuts unaccompanied by major spending reductions. That could lead to the evisceration of many of the discretionary federal programs — think education or research and development — critical to putting our economy on a stronger footing.
.. As a fiscal conservative, Mr. Ryan is unlikely to accept large tax cuts unaccompanied by major spending reductions. That could lead to the evisceration of many of the discretionary federal programs — think education or research and development — critical to putting our economy on a stronger footing.
.. If Mr. Trump sticks to his pledge, it will be open season on regulations, as businesses go after their most disliked provisions and agencies. Industrial companies will take aim at the Environmental Protection Agency. Financial institutions, including the big banks, will push to repeal Dodd-Frank. That’s just for starters.
.. Some of the efforts at dismantling government may face hurdles in the Senate, where 60 votes are required to break filibusters, more than the Republicans will have. But under a process known as “reconciliation,” matters relating to taxes and spending — and potentially the repeal of Obamacare — can be passed by a simple majority of 51.
.. The conservative American Action Forum calculated that his deportation plan would cost $400 billion to $600 billion and, because there are not enough citizens and legal residents to fill the demand, the plan would shrink the labor force and reduce gross domestic product by $1.6 trillion.
.. Mr. Trump’s proposals would confer vast monetary gains on wealthy Americans while leaving middle- and working-class Americans — his electoral base — further behind. For his supporters, the irony of a Trump victory is that they may end up even less well off.