We need to prepare for abnormal being the new normal, politics-wise
Trump’s ascension to the White House feels more like the beginning of something than the end of it to me. The instability of our long-standing institutions, coupled with the creeping anxiety caused by a steady drumbeat of terrorist attacks — the latest coming in Istanbul on New Year’s Eve — and a sense that the American Dream is fading away, creates a political climate in which nontraditional politicians promising the world hold massive appeal. In short: I think we’ll see more Trump-like figures in politics, not less. And that a return to some sort of normal never really comes.
.. As the 2016 election showed, pollsters’ ability to accurately determine what the electorate will look like is weaker than at any time in recent memory. There are lots of technical reasons for that difficulty — and lots of smart people in the polling industry working to figure out solutions. But for now, best to proceed with caution when it comes to polls and what they do or don’t tell us.