Surplus or Deficit? Trump Quarrels With Canada Over Trade Numbers
Canada’s view that the U.S. has a surplus undercuts Trump administration’s push on Nafta
The complexity of the statistics measuring U.S.-Canadian trade flows allows each side the ability to support its claim by choosing from an array of data.
Trump administration officials typically focus on merchandise trade balances with other countries, which don’t account for trade in services such as insurance or tourism.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s basic tally of merchandise trade with Canada lists U.S. exports at $282.4 billion and imports from Canada at $300 billion, indicating a deficit of $17.6 billion.
Canadian officials prefer to include services trade as well as merchandise. That method, which gives highly competitive American services industries credit, gives the U.S. a small surplus of $2.8 billion in 2017, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.
.. The U.S. is asking Canada for a litany of changes in the Nafta talks, from big shifts in auto-industry rules to the elimination of dispute-settlement system, and Canada officials are responding with an argument tailored to Mr. Trump: Trade between the two countries is balanced, so no major changes are needed to existing Nafta provisions.
.. President Trump raised eyebrows at a fundraiser when he reportedly told guests that he recently insisted to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada, despite having “no idea” if that was in fact the case.
“Trudeau came to see me…He said, no, no, we have no trade deficit with you, we have none,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday, according to a transcript published by the Washington Post. “I said wrong, Justin, you do. I didn’t even know. Gosh, I had no idea. I just said, ‘You’re wrong.’”