Marco Rubio and the Three-Strikes Theory of Politics
But if you look at the surveys of Republican voters collected on Real Clear Politics that I cited earlier, you will find that Bush is stuck at well under twenty per cent. If you then add together the vote shares of Walker, Cruz, Paul, Carson, and Huckabee, all avowedly conservative candidates, you get a total of 53.1 per cent. Add in Rick Perry and Rick Santorum, and the conservative tally is even higher.
Based on this evidence, the G.O.P. doesn’t look like a party that is ready to embrace change. And that’s why Rubio already looks like an also-ran. Falling afoul of the three-strikes rule, he peaked one election cycle too early.