Jeb Bush and the “Invisible” Primary: Winning Big Donors
The real challenge for Mr. Bush is negotiating the competing pressures of the so-called “invisible” and actual primaries. The invisible primary is the competition for the support of party officials and donors with the influence and money necessary to propel a candidate toward the party’s nomination. A candidate who wins the invisible primary decisively almost always goes on to win the nomination.
.. The catch, of course, is that the source of Mr. Bush’s appeal among the Republican donor class is a message and tone that often seems close to attacking conservatives as ideologues.
.. Mr. Bush could still win even if Tea Party supporters opposed him by a wide margin. Mr. Romney managed to steer down the same narrow path to victory in 2012. It’s a path that starts by consolidating the establishment wing of the party in the invisible primary. It ends by winning a protracted fight against an underfunded conservative opponent who can’t break through in the delegate-rich blue states that are often needed to win the party’s nomination, even though the party struggles to win them in presidential elections.
.. It is an arduous path to victory. But candidates with the favor of the establishment have won nearly every recent nominating contest for a reason: It brings big advantages. And the Republican establishment doesn’t appear to have too many other choices. If top G.O.P. donors are indeed choosing between Mr. Bush, Mr. Christie and Mr. Romney, they might not have a better option than Mr. Bush.