Debate: Can China Survive Trump?
a fiscal stimulus that puts more money into American shoppers’ pockets could actually boost demand for China’s exports. In Europe, anger is focused more on immigrants than trade.
.. the global economy continues to be distorted by huge trade imbalances. The worst offender is Germany, whose record-breaking surpluses just keep growing.
.. These and other large surpluses are driven not by rising productivity but rather by structurally weak domestic demand, and in most cases this weak demand isn’t being addressed except by being exported.
.. Nearly half the responsibility for absorbing foreign surpluses now falls onto U.S. consumers. That’s why, even if Trump is bluffing, this problem isn’t going away.
.. China probably has little more than two to four years in which to reverse its dependence on debt. Another credit-fueled stimulus would just give Beijing even less time.
.. Yet with household income at just over 50 percent of GDP, among the lowest in history, Beijing must raise household income even as it cuts back investment