The decisive Conservative victory in Britain leaves no doubt that in today’s global equation, national interests are supreme and globalization is suspect.
The notion that global economic integration amounts to human progress had a good run, dominating the thinking of the powers that be for more than seven decades. But a new era is underway in which national interests take primacy over collective concerns, with trading arrangements negotiated among individual countries.
Britain’s voters made that clear on Thursday in handing an emphatic majority to Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party, all but ensuring that the world’s fifth-largest economy — and a charter member of the international trading system — will proceed with its abandonment of the European Union.
A preliminary deal hailed on Friday by the two largest economies, the United States and China, raised the prospect of easing their high-stakes trade animosities. But the nature of their engagement — country to country, not mediated by the World Trade Organization or some other international authority — underscored the principles of the new age.
Britain now faces another complex phase in its tangled European divorce proceedings — negotiations over the terms of its future economic relationship with the Continent. But in one form or another, “getting Brexit done,” the mantra that Mr. Johnson promised and can now deliver, marks a profound change in the world trading system.
In the aftermath of World War II, the victorious Allies built an international order on the understanding that when countries swap goods they become less inclined to trade artillery volleys.
Britain’s departure from the European Union is the clearest manifestation that this idea no longer holds decisive sway. It is not the only one.
The traditional arbiter of international trade disputes, the World Trade Organization, is listing toward irrelevance as countries bypass its channels to impose tariffs. Its appellate body, which adjudicates disputes, has been rendered inoperative by the Trump administration’s blocking of new judges. The panel needs at least three judges to render verdicts, but now has only one.
“The sense that policy moves in one direction, toward more liberalization and more integration, has been replaced by recognition that policy can go backward as well as forward,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
The United States and China together account for more than a third of the global economy, making their wave of escalating tariffs a cause for alarm about diminishing fortunes in nearly every country exposed to international trade — from Germany to South Korea to Mexico.
President Trump has put stock in the unrivaled scale of the American economy in seeking favorable trading arrangements. In his calculus, the United States boasts the advantage in any bilateral trade negotiations and can tilt the rules toward American interests.
This was the logic that prompted Mr. Trump to renounce American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade bloc spanning a dozen countries. It was a project pursued by his immediate predecessor, President Barack Obama, in part to press China to address longstanding complaints that it subsidized key industries, doled out credit to favored companies and manipulated the value of its currency to gain advantage in world markets.
In taking on China, the Obama administration employed the multilateralist mind-set that had guided American policy since the end of World War II. The Pacific trading bloc would set rules on investment, labor and environmental standards. Its members would profit through growing trade, and China would want in. To gain access, China would be forced to adopt the bloc’s rules.
But in Trumpian thinking, multilateralism is for suckers. Shortly after he was sworn in, declaring as his credo “America First,” Mr. Trump ditched the Pacific bloc and weaponized the American market: If China wanted access to the 327 million consumers in the richest country on earth, it would have to buy more American goods and play fair.
On Friday, Mr. Trump cited the preliminary agreement as evidence that his strategy was working. The United States would sharply reduce the tariffs it had affixed to Chinese goods, while China promised to buy more American farm products and respect intellectual property. Mr. Trump called it “an amazing deal for all.”
But economists said the announcement of new farm purchases reflected goods that China was already buying. Even as the scrapping of the next wave of tariffs weighed as positive for the global economy, few were proclaiming the advent of enduring peace. The United States and China have descended into such an adversarial state that they are likely to continue seeking alternatives to exchanging goods and investment. Companies that make goods in China will face pressure to explore other countries, posing disruption to the global supply chain.
China’s leaders have come to construe trade hostilities as part of an American bullying campaign engineered to suppress their national aspirations and deny the country its rightful place as a superpower. Nationalist sentiments and security concerns have become intertwined with trade policy, complicating the pursuit of a final deal.
Now Britain, in leaving the European bloc, embarks on a strategy aimed at securing bilateral trading arrangements with major economies, from the United States and China to Australia and India.
Trade deals are complex and difficult. They entail prying open new markets for exports in exchange for exposing domestic companies to new competitors. Powerful interest groups complain. Deals take years.
Arithmetic reveals that no combination of trade deals is likely to compensate Britain fully for what it stands to lose in walking away from the European single marketplace, a territory stretching from Greece to Ireland.
Britain sends nearly half of its exports to the European Union, a flow of goods imperiled by Brexit. Britain’s appeal as a headquarters for multinational companies will be undermined as it finds itself separated from the Continent by a revived border.
The fraying of international trading arrangements and the rise of nationalist imperatives have been driven by intensifying public anger in many countries over widening economic inequality, and the perception that trade has been bountiful for the executive class while leaving ordinary people behind.
In Britain, struggling communities used the June 2016 referendum that unleashed Brexit as a protest vote against the bankers in London who had engineered a catastrophic financial crisis, and who then forced regular people to absorb the costs through wrenching fiscal austerity.
In the United States, Mr. Trump’s political base has rallied to his trade war. In Italy, France and Germany, furious popular movements have fixed on trade as a threat to workers’ livelihoods, while embracing nationalist and nativist responses that promise to halt globalization.
“The era of freewheeling markets and liberalism is ending,” said Meredith Crowley, an international trade expert at the University of Cambridge in England. “People are dissatisfied with the complexity of policy and this feeling that those who have the levers of policy are somehow out of their reach.”
Economists see perils in this unfolding era, especially as governments champion national industries at the expense of competition. They point to history, notably the Great Depression, which was deepened by a wave of tit-for-tat trade protectionism kicked off by the United States through the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.
The law sharply raised tariffs on a vast range of agricultural and factory goods, prompting American trading partners to respond. As world trade disintegrated, nationalist rage spread, culminating in the brutalities of World War II.
The British election, and the splintering of the European trading bloc, amounts to the most consequential upsurge of economic nationalism in generations.
“Since Smoot-Hawley, I don’t think we have seen something as dramatic as this,” said Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics.
One major variable has gained clarity: Congressional Democrats and the Trump administration this week hailed an accord that clears passage of the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the deal that has allowed some $1.2 trillion worth of goods a year to be exchanged freely across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Yet on another front, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imported automobiles, a step that would be especially disruptive in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. Germany sells far more goods to the United States than it imports, drawing the ire of the American president.
Mr. Trump has openly warned that he could cite a national security threat as justification for auto tariffs. Trade experts have derided that strategy as an affront to the norms of the international trading system.
Last month, Mr. Trump allowed a self-imposed deadline to lapse without imposing auto tariffs. But he has left a major international industry guessing about what happens next.
Since Britain shocked the world with its vote to abandon the European Union, its political institutions have tangled themselves in knots trying to decide what to do with their nebulous mandate to leave. Businesses have deferred hiring and investments, awaiting clarity on future trading terms.
The uncertainty has already exacted significant costs, and far beyond Europe, according to a new paper by Tarek Hassan, an economist at Boston University, and three European accounting experts, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent and Ahmed Tahoun.
Every year since the referendum, the average company in Ireland — which trades heavily with Britain — has seen its growth in investment reduced by 4.2 percent, and hiring is 15 percent less than it otherwise would have been because of uncertainty, the paper concludes. Yet even across the Atlantic, the average American company has seen investment growth limited by 0.5 percent a year and hiring slowed by 1.7 percent.
“There is already a significant drop in employment as a result of the risks of Brexit,” Mr. Hassan said.
Some analysts suggested that the election enhanced the possibility that Mr. Johnson would pursue a softer form of Brexit, keeping Britain closer to the European market. His majority is so comfortable that he need not worry about alienating the hard-liners in his party who favor a clean break with Europe.
But some alteration now lies ahead. If Brexit uncertainty has been damaging, what replaces it is the near certainty of weaker economic growth and diminished living standards.
“It’s going to have massive implications,” Mr. Hassan said.
‘The WTO Is in Crisis’: Dispute Puts Global Trade Regulator at Risk
Discord between U.S. and other World Trade Organization members including the EU and China appears set to paralyze the group’s top court
BRUSSELS—A stalemate between the U.S. and other members of the World Trade Organization, including the European Union and China, stands to cripple the organization’s top court, threatening the global body’s survival.
On Wednesday the court, called the Appellate Body, will no longer have enough judges to rule on big trade disputes between countries.
At stake are international rules negotiated over five decades by the U.S. and Europe to boost global trade. The WTO, established in 1995, is the most significant outcome of that effort, helping to head off damaging cycles of tariffs and retaliation between countries. Now it’s stuck.
Efforts to modernize WTO rules for challenges such as China’s market-distorting state capitalism have repeatedly failed. Talks among its 164 members to regulate e-commerce and other new arenas have stalled for years. And a trans-Atlantic dispute over operations of its top court has sparked the split now threatening the organization’s core.
“The WTO is in crisis,” said Cecilia Malmstrom, who last month ended her term as EU trade commissioner. “If nothing happens, it will become irrelevant.”
The WTO’s ability to police global trade rests on the seven-judge Appellate Body, which reviews arbitration rulings. When countries appeal those rulings, three judges examine each case. The Appellate Body already has four vacancies and two current members’ terms end on Tuesday. That will leave it with one judge, precluding WTO appeals and enforcement.
A U.S. block on new appointments triggered the current crisis. Consecutive U.S. administrations have complained of Appellate Body overreach. Two years ago U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer moved to discipline the court or bring it down.Legal Battleground The U.S. and the European Union are the top litigators in a WTO dispute-settlement mechanism that is on the verge of collapse. Disputes by membersSource: WTOComplainantRespondentU.S.E.U.ChinaCanadaIndia0 cases100200300
“Without a functioning Appellate Body, the whole system is sailing into… uncharted water,” a Chinese diplomat said at a WTO gathering on Nov. 22. That would “further tilt the balance in favor of [major] powers.”
Mr. Trump said recently he is “very tentative on the WTO.” He has repeatedly attacked it for being unfair to the U.S. and threatened to quit if the organization doesn’t “shape up.” U.S. officials say the global trade watchdog has strayed from its purpose to liberalize and protect markets.
“I’m not excluding the fact that on December 11 champagne corks will pop at the USTR building in Washington,” an EU diplomat said, referring to the day after the Appellate Body loses two more judges.
Europeans want to preserve the WTO. The EU has proposed creating an interim court, based on WTO rules and voluntary participation, to replicate Appellate Body functions and issue binding decisions. Canada and Norway have signed on. China, Russia and other countries are assessing the plan, which represents a snub to the U.S., which opposes the move.
Stopgap measures could prolong some of the WTO’s ability to settle disputes. But preserving WTO power as the ultimate trade enforcer would require resolving fundamental disagreements over the Appellate Body. There, the U.S. and the EU remain far apart.
Europeans favor a global trade court while Washington prefers ad-hoc arbitration for each dispute. EU officials say the Appellate Body has cemented international rules. U.S. officials say the body has aggrandized itself, seizing powers more akin to a court than its original role as a rules enforcer. They say it has missed deadlines, set precedents and undertook lengthy reviews it wasn’t designed to do.
“It simply will not work to paper over the problems,” said U.S. envoy to the WTO Dennis Shea in October.
The divide is also playing out in a personal fight at the WTO’s otherwise tranquil headquarters on Lake Geneva in Switzerland.
When the Appellate Body ruled against the U.S. in a dispute with China in July, one member wrote a rare and scathing dissent. The decision was “incoherent” and “unduly complicated,” the judge said. The opinion is anonymous but trade officials in Geneva widely believe it was penned by Thomas Graham, a U.S. judge on the body whose term ends Tuesday.
Mr. Graham didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The U.S. also slammed the judgment for undermining WTO rules against Chinese subsidies.
For Appellate Body Director Werner Zdouc, the WTO’s dispute-settlement system is to global trade what the Supreme Court is to U.S. law, according to current and former trade officials. Under his leadership, critics said, the body disregarded dispute-settlement rules designed to prevent countries from circumventing WTO regulations.
Through WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell, Mr. Zdouc declined to comment.
Few options remain to save the Appellate Body. Mr. Graham and Appellate Body Chair Ujal Singh Bhatia, whose term also expires Tuesday, could theoretically stay on to hear ongoing appeals. But Mr. Graham has said he wouldn’t extend his tenure unless Mr. Zdouc is removed, allowing an Appellate Body overhaul.
Appellate Body reform has broad support but WTO members differ on its direction, Mr. Rockwell said. The EU and other WTO members over the past year have offered proposals to revamp the Appellate Body and address U.S. concerns. Washington has said the WTO should follow existing rules.
In a move to further constrain the appellate body, the U.S. also briefly blocked its budget recently. Washington finally agreed to limited resources for next year only, funding Mr. Zdouc’s department at about 7% of its biennial budget of about $3 million. That’s enough to extend Messrs. Graham and Bhatia’s terms until about March, enabling them to issue rulings on three ongoing appeals. After that, China’s Hong Zhao would be left alone until her term ends in November, with at least 10 appeals awaiting review, many more in the pipeline and no new colleagues.
Western powers now risk splitting over global trade, with the U.S. acting unilaterally and the EU rallying some partners to preserve a broken WTO system. China could be left to build its own global links, largely freed from Western rules.
“The problems of the WTO go far beyond any [Appellate Body] crisis,” said Clete Willems, a former Trump administration trade official currently with the law firm Akin Gump. Citing lengthy WTO litigations and Chinese trade practices, he said, “The question is do we have a system that is fit for purpose, given where we are on world trade.”