Does Democratic Weakness Create Republican Opportunity

Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House and a presidential candidate in 2012, released a set of recommendations for Republicans running for election this year. Gingrich put together the 22-page manifesto, “2016 Election Principles,”

The document — in essence a master plan that comes with the strong endorsement of Reince Priebus, the chairman of the R.N.C. — stresses the need for “widespread inclusion of ethnic groups.” It sounds remarkably like an across-the-board renunciation of Donald Trump’s campaign strategy.

This presents something of a paradox, though, because Gingrich claims to be one of Trump’s strongest supporters.

.. But Trump won the Republican presidential nomination by appealing specifically to just those voters most opposed to “widespread inclusion of ethnic groups.” His core support in primary after primary has been white voters who rank highest on scales of ethnocentrism and racial resentment.

.. Gingrich argues that

the goal has to be inclusion, not outreach. Outreach is when the old order makes a decision and then calls the community leaders to inform them. Inclusion is when the community is in on the discussion before the decision.

.. Gingrich is convinced that there has been a weakening of the Democratic Party over the last eight years at the state and local level — including in key battleground states — which has left a door open for a broad Republican victory this November.

.. when Barack Obama took office, 51.8 percent of voters identified with the Democratic Party and 38.4 percent with the Republican Party, a solid 13.4 point Democratic advantage.

In 2016, however, the average of the first five polls shows that the Democratic advantage has shrunk to a far more modest 5.2 point edge ..

.. In Pennsylvania, the 16 point Democratic advantage fell to 3 points.

.. In effect, Stewart supports Gingrich’s claim that the Obama years have “done more to grow the Republican Party than any Democratic president in our history.”

.. To get a sense of the depth of the Democratic Party’s decay at the state legislative level in the Obama era, consider that since President Obama took office, 85 of 98 legislative bodies have become more Republican than they were when he was inaugurated.

.. Gingrich claims that Republicans are on the cusp of a game-changing “revolution” in microtargeting through the use of a new technology called “Voter Score.” Voter Score is a database that ranks every voter in the nation on a series of 100 point scales for their likelihood of casting Republican or Democratic ballots, their stands on issues and their turnout history.