54:26
Eric it’s not gonna stop then at some
54:29
point in this crisis I know things kind
54:31
of something snapped for you because we
54:34
got to the point where the government’s
54:35
basically not doing anything terribly
54:38
productive I know at one point I was
54:40
actually following a story where there
54:42
were paramedics in New York City
54:45
dumpster diving behind the hospital
54:47
looking for n95 masks because nobody had
54:51
their act together they weren’t able to
54:53
order the right ones at some point
54:55
something snapped for you and you just
54:56
heard about this stuff and you said I’m
54:58
gonna take personal action to get n95
55:01
masks into the hands of the people in
55:04
the front line who need them
55:05
tell us what is front line heroes but
55:08
more importantly how did it come about
55:09
and what was your experience I mean
55:12
you’re you’re a very comfortable finance
55:14
guy with a great career great reputation
55:15
I’m sure you never imagined yourself
55:17
starting a charity before this all
55:20
happened something happen for you and
55:22
all of a sudden everything changed tell
55:23
us what that was like you know what what
55:25
clicked for me Eric is that
55:28
I’ve been railing about our our trickle
55:30
down economy for so long right where
55:34
where the the policy fiscal policy
55:37
monetary policy particularly it’s really
55:40
designed to support what I like to call
55:44
the the naked sinews of power and it
55:48
really comes to a head in a crisis where
55:51
you reveal that this Pleasant skin of
55:53
democracy and capitalism that that we
55:56
all believe in and and once so
55:59
desperately for ourselves and our
56:01
children it’s it’s just a skin right and
56:04
then underneath it are all these
56:06
policies which are designed to prop up
56:08
and bail out and support the status quo
56:12
wealth and an economy of the of the very
56:16
wealthy and the very politically
56:17
connected and what really clicked for me
56:20
in this this come in nineteen crisis was
56:22
it’s the same thing with medical
56:27
supplies its trickle down its trickle
56:30
down Eric where the very well-connected
56:33
the very politically connected the crony
56:36
capitalism that we see in in our economy
56:40
it’s the same thing in our health care
56:42
where you know supposedly we have these
56:45
millions of n95 masks that are
56:48
stockpiled and unavailable and yet like
56:51
you there are there are horror stories
56:56
of doctors and nurses and EMTs and in
57:00
firemen and policemen and first
57:01
responders who are forced to put not
57:06
only their own lives but when you talk
57:08
to the to these these heroes right what
57:11
they’re really concerned about is
57:13
bringing this risk home to their
57:14
families and that’s what they are forced
57:18
to do in this trickle-down system we
57:21
have not just for wealth but for medical
57:25
supplies for protecting again we call
57:28
them frontline heroes the the doctors
57:30
the nurses the EMTs the firemen who are
57:34
who are responding who are fighting this
57:36
war for us so that that’s what clicked
57:40
you know what
57:41
snapped in me Eric was was to to find a
57:45
way not to compete with the federal
57:49
government and FEMA and the state
57:52
management authorities right not to try
57:55
to buy a million in 95 masks and drive
58:01
up the price and you know do all that
58:04
which is a real problem but I’ll be
58:06
damned if I was gonna wait for FEMA and
58:09
these state emergency authorities to
58:12
find the time to trickle down masks to
58:16
the to the people who need them so
58:18
desperately so that was that that was
58:21
the I say the inspiration for for our
58:24
effort and I’m gonna I want to plug it
58:27
right now right it’s frontline heroes
58:31
usa.org all one word frontline heroes
58:36
usa.org and though the way it came about
58:39
was this is the the crazy world we live
58:43
in right Eric we’re where social media
58:45
is both horrible but he’s so many ways
58:48
but it’s also wonderful at connecting so
58:51
many people I got a Twitter DM from an
58:55
epsilon Theory reader who works for
58:57
Intel and he said you know look we’ve
59:00
got we’ve got a ton of employees intel
59:03
does over in China and I reached out to
59:07
a couple of my friends over there you
59:09
know they can they can buy these these
59:11
in 95 equivalent masks they’re they’re
59:14
pretty they’re plentiful over there in
59:16
China you know they’re not that
59:18
expensive and so I’ve had a couple of
59:20
buddies to go online order some in 95
59:24
masks ship him over here to me and you
59:28
know a bag of a DHL bag of like a
59:30
hundred masks and then I’m giving them
59:34
to a local hospital or clinic that that
59:36
really desperately needs them he was
59:39
calling from he reached out from
59:41
Portland Oregon where you know obviously
59:43
the in the early days there was a lot of
59:46
need for the for this equipment
59:48
okay so listeners who want to help get
59:51
personal protective equipment in the
59:53
hands of our frontline heroes
59:55
by going to frontline heroes usa.org
59:58
they can make a donation on the website
60:00
that directly results in effectively I
60:03
don’t want to say this too bluntly but I
60:05
want to anyway bypassing FEMA and all
60:08
the of the federal government
60:10
and actually getting the stuff to the
60:12
people who need it right now that’s what
60:14
we’ve done Eric we’ve we’ve created an
60:16
end-to-end distribution system where we
60:19
are not only able to buy and source
60:22
these masks where they are plentiful and
60:25
where they are cheap which is typically
60:27
over in China we’re getting them in
60:29
small quantities we like to call it like
60:32
an underground railroad of PPE we get it
60:35
over here to the States we get it tested
60:38
at a at a Medical Center to make sure
60:41
we’re getting quality merchandise and
60:44
then we are getting it directly into the
60:48
hands of the individual doctors and
60:51
nurses and EMTs who then distribute it
60:54
to their teams we can’t get ten thousand
60:58
or a hundred thousand masks to a
61:01
hospital system that’s not what we’re
61:04
about
61:04
what we’re about is getting a hundred
61:06
masks 200 masks to a clinic in
61:11
Indianapolis to a hospital in New
61:14
Orleans all around the country we’ve
61:17
been able to make these direct
61:19
connections with these frontline heroes
61:22
who are in actual urgent need of this
61:25
equipment to date we’ve raised over
61:27
seven hundred thousand dollars
61:29
we have bought and distributed over
61:33
60,000 in 95 equivalent masks to more
61:37
than six hundred individual clinics
61:41
hospitals EMT departments you name it
61:46
all across the country and I gotta tell
61:49
you Eric we’re just getting started man
61:52
we’ve got a lot of entrepreneurs and
61:54
business people in our audience I hope
61:57
that your actions will inspire some of
61:59
them to think about what kind of charity
62:02
they could create what what words of
62:04
either motivation or advice would you
62:05
have to someone who’s considering doing
62:07
something like
62:09
maybe they’ve figured out a different
62:10
way that they’d like to help our
62:12
healthcare heroes or someone else
62:14
through this crisis well the the first
62:17
recommendation I have is just do it just
62:20
do it right if you’re waiting for
62:22
someone to organize you if you’re
62:24
waiting for someone to give you
62:25
permission you know that’s that’s what
62:30
we’ve been so ingrained and in custom to
62:33
that that’s what that’s what government
62:36
in big corporations that’s what they do
62:37
to you they make you think you you can’t
62:40
act unless you are being led or
62:44
organized by them and so my the first
62:47
thing and the most important thing I’d
62:48
say is that’s a crock you just get up
62:52
and you just do it you just do now when
62:55
it comes to actually raising money right
62:57
and it is important I think to operate
63:00
under the the 501c3 framework both to to
63:05
take in donations and and have it you
63:08
know enjoy that that tax advantaged
63:11
properties of it which is really
63:12
important but even more so it really
63:15
enforces and requires an element of
63:18
oversight and documentation that that is
63:22
so important when when money’s involved
63:26
now to establish a 501c3 from scratch is
63:30
pretty hard takes a lot of it’s not hard
63:32
it takes time what we were able to do
63:35
and I think what what many of your
63:37
listeners will be able to do to to
63:40
really I’ll say formalize this and to
63:43
get it started as a as a registered 501
63:47
C 3 is to find an existing 501 C 3
63:51
charity and in your community your
63:53
organization and partner with them to be
63:57
a program or initiative of that existing
64:01
501 C 3 organization so somebody who’s
64:05
already got the IRS letter designating
64:07
them as a 501 C 3 piggyback on them
64:10
partner with them and use their IRS
64:12
letter correct that’s that’s exactly
64:15
what we did and I think it’s a way to
64:18
get these programs up and moving more
64:22
quickly than
64:23
the delays in the red tape from from
64:25
getting your own 501 C 3 designation I
64:28
think it’s important to have that
64:31
designation and to have the oversight
64:33
and controls that that requires but I
64:36
also think that you can move more
64:38
quickly if you find an organization in
64:42
your community an existing 501 C 3 that
64:45
you can work with man I can’t thank you
64:47
enough for a terrific interview before
64:48
we let you go your epsilon theory
64:52
newsletter is one of the most popular
64:54
and one of the most fascinating in the
64:56
industry tell us briefly about that and
64:58
where’s the website and Twitter handle
65:00
so people can find out more sure well
65:03
it’s easy to find it’s epsilon Theory
65:06
comm and on Twitter it’s at epsilon
65:09
Theory you know it comes from the old
65:13
investment equation of alpha and beta
65:16
there’s a third term on there called
65:18
epsilon and usually you know epsilon is
65:22
efore error but honestly Eric that’s
65:25
that’s where all of the behavioral
65:27
economics lives that’s where all of I
65:30
think narrative lives we call it the
65:33
error term but I think there’s a lot of
65:35
information there so that’s epsilon
65:37
theory calm and at epsilon theory on
65:40
Twitter I thought you were gonna tell me
65:43
the e is for extraordinary monetary
65:45
policy and fiscal balance sheet
65:47
expansion a fantastic reading though and
65:50
in great insights so I highly recommend
65:52
it to our listeners we’re gonna leave it
65:54
there
65:54
Patrick’s our resna and I will be back
65:56
as macro voices continues right here at
65:58
macro voices calm
66:07
macro voices is a listener driven
66:10
program please email requests for
66:12
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66:24
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66:26
in our mailbag segment we also welcome
66:29
your suggestions for how we can improve
66:30
the program now back to your hosts eric
66:34
townsend and Patricks resna eric goes
66:38
great to have been back on the show what
66:40
did you take away from the interview
66:41
well I thought the most important thing
66:44
that he said which echoes something I’ve
66:45
said before is the one thing that you
66:48
really almost have to get at least
66:51
mostly right in investing is you’ve got
66:54
to have a view on whether we’ve got a
66:57
backdrop which is deflationary or
66:59
inflationary or maybe it’s in between
67:02
and and you have a moderate view but you
67:05
got to have some kind of view because
67:06
the investments and the way you
67:08
structure your portfolio is either gonna
67:10
work or not going to work based on that
67:12
and I think we’re headed for a secular
67:15
shift that I don’t know Ben doesn’t know
67:18
none of our guests have been willing to
67:20
really you know put a stake in the
67:22
ground and lay out here’s what’s gonna
67:23
happen
67:24
because I don’t think anybody knows
67:25
what’s gonna happen but all the
67:26
ingredients are there over the next few
67:29
years for deflation to eventually end
67:31
and give way to inflation and I think
67:35
that the politics are gonna play a big
67:37
role in this we’re seeing all of the
67:39
different political parties seeming to
67:42
favor more what effectively is
67:45
monetization and you know it’s it’s
67:47
interesting how each of our guests have
67:49
different views on this we got a few
67:51
emails about dr. Lacey hunt making such
67:54
a big deal saying look the Fed doesn’t
67:57
have the ability to spend money all that
67:59
they can do is to loan money and provide
68:03
liquidity into the market and that’s all
68:05
based on this idea Patrick that when the
68:07
government engages in deficit spending
68:10
the Fed is not directly buying that debt
68:14
instead
68:15
it’s being sent and there’s you know
68:17
free market price discovery occurring
68:20
because a private sector party is buying
68:23
that debt from the government and that
68:25
allows the interest rate to be set at
68:28
market rates and the Fed is not allowed
68:30
to buy that debt directly from the
68:33
government well if that’s the whole
68:36
intention of the Federal Reserve Act but
68:39
in practice the way it works is that
68:41
debt has to get sold to a private sector
68:45
banker who is going to turn it around
68:48
two days later and sell it to the Fed at
68:51
a markup that that’s not you know
68:53
private-sector market price discovery
68:55
that’s just a sham that allows the
68:58
primary dealers to mark up what they’re
69:00
buying and sell it back to a guaranteed
69:03
buyer of the Fed who’s effectively
69:05
monetizing I don’t really agree with dr.
69:07
hunt and other people who say that the
69:10
Fed can’t spend money there they’re
69:12
indirectly doing so by working around
69:14
the intention of the Federal Reserve Act
69:17
and I think they’re already doing that
69:18
to a large extent anyway let’s get to
69:21
the postgame chart book Patrick you put
69:23
together another terrific chart Dec
69:25
listeners you’ll find the download link
69:27
in your research roundup email now if
69:30
you don’t have a research roundup email
69:31
that means you haven’t yet or registered
69:33
your free account at macro voices.com
69:35
shame on you you can remedy that by just
69:38
going to macro voices.com and looking
69:40
for the red button on the homepage that
69:42
says looking for the downloads Patrick
69:45
let’s go ahead and dive in here on page
69:47
two this looks like a chart of the S&P
69:51
but you got a bunch of other secondary
69:54
studies around the S&P what’s going on
69:57
here right so what we had was the sp500
70:00
we’ve been drawing on analog of what a
70:02
bear market would look like and going
70:04
through all sorts of storylines over the
70:06
last month but what what I really wanted
70:09
to touch on was what’s a growing thing
70:11
in the market is that everyone’s
70:13
focusing on the big behemoth stocks that
70:15
have been running like Amazon fresh new
70:17
highs and all these other mega cap
70:19
stocks that have been running and it’s
70:21
been driving the Nasdaq and when you
70:23
look at the Nasdaq which is the black
70:24
line on there we can see that it we
70:27
almost approach
70:28
the pre bear market high and really the
70:32
bigger question to ask is how did the
70:34
Nasdaq pull this off and what’s really
70:37
amazing is is that it’s just a handful
70:39
of stocks so when you look at the five
70:41
mega cap stocks the largest market
70:43
capital I stocks in the NASDAQ and the
70:46
S&P 500 and they just have a monstrous
70:50
weighting into the indices so in the
70:53
sp500 those five stocks make up 20% of
70:57
the weighting so that means the other
70:59
495 stocks in that index make up the
71:02
other 80% and therefore as go those
71:06
stocks goes the whole market and what’s
71:08
interesting is that when you look at the
71:10
indices that don’t have the market cap
71:13
weighting of those five stocks it paints
71:15
a much different picture so what I have
71:17
here is the Dow Jones which is price
71:20
weighted then you have the London
71:23
footsie in yellow you have the emerging
71:25
markets you have the Euro Stock 50 as
71:29
well as the Russell which is the small
71:31
cap indices and what you can identify
71:33
here is that once you take out those
71:36
five mega cap stocks the indices look
71:40
incredibly weak everywhere in the world
71:42
and this is what I continue to believe
71:45
is giving us the evidence that this is
71:47
still truly a bear market and a bear
71:49
market rally just because you have
71:51
enough market participants willing to
71:54
crowd into a few of these mega stocks
71:56
and drive their prices higher is not
71:59
really reflective of the underpinning
72:02
conditions from a breadth perspective
72:04
that of a very deteriorated equity
72:06
market once you leave those five stocks
72:08
and so to me it’s still a bear market
72:10
rally and it’s still rolling over
72:12
we’ll see certainly next week once we
72:14
get past the option expiration gamma
72:16
pins whether or not another round of
72:18
selling may be coming into June moving
72:21
on to page three Patrick looking at the
72:23
euro versus the dollar
72:26
boy this charts looking a little bearish
72:28
I guess you could call this either a
72:29
descending triangle or a wedge depending
72:31
on how you draw around that that late
72:33
march bottom there what do you make of
72:36
this well really you turn this chart
72:38
upside down and you got the dollar index
72:40
right and what’s amazing
72:42
a dollar index still has such a huge
72:44
waiting into the euro of 57% waiting and
72:48
so really as goes the Euro goes the
72:51
dollar index and so what we can
72:53
continuously see here over the last
72:55
month and a half every attempt the euro
72:59
has had to rally and make it stick it’s
73:02
lasted no more than a week and almost
73:05
immediately the selling comes back down
73:07
and and brings it right to the bottom of
73:09
the range and it’s just such a weak
73:11
price action now all you need is it’s
73:14
like a the euros at the edge of a cliff
73:16
and all it needs is someone to give it a
73:18
push and if it loses its footing here we
73:20
could be seeing a euro move down to 105
73:23
or 103 which would certainly be the
73:26
underpinning catalyst that will drive
73:28
the Dixie up towards that 104 target
73:31
that you’ve often referenced and so this
73:33
is a the must watch chart in my mind and
73:35
it has so many global macro implications
73:38
if it gives out so this is probably a
73:40
single big the most important chart to
73:42
watch in my opinion but I really don’t
73:44
want to highlight further if we go to
73:47
page 4 when we look at the dollar index
73:49
it really feels like the dollars been
73:52
doing nothing but really once you leave
73:55
the euro and you go and start looking at
73:58
the rest of the currencies around the
74:00
world and particularly when you move
74:02
into the emerging market currencies you
74:04
can see just how incredibly weak all
74:07
those currencies have been relative to
74:09
the dollar whether you go to Mexico
74:10
Brazil Argentina and the Russian ruble
74:13
here you have the South African Rand and
74:16
the Turkish lira all just so incredibly
74:20
weak and that just continues to support
74:22
that there is a fundamental US dollar
74:24
bull market underway and it’s being
74:26
disguised by the fact that the euro has
74:28
been pinned which makes the dollar index
74:30
look like it’s far more range bound but
74:32
I actually think the US dollar is in
74:35
full bull trend and in it’s just a
74:37
matter of time before the Euro gives out
74:39
and succumbs to that predominant trend
74:41
Patrick let’s move on to page 5 one of
74:44
my favorite charts of course is gold and
74:46
boy look at that breakout we’ve seen
74:48
just in the last couple of days all for
74:50
sure and and you were talking about it
74:52
and this is the big question right when
74:54
everybody is so convinced gold
74:56
going higher usually whenever you have
74:58
that kind of a strong sentiment usually
75:01
it means that the trade is crowded in a
75:03
backfills and so that and that storyline
75:06
makes sense but but you know when you
75:08
really look at the conditions around the
75:10
world and the size of the gold market is
75:13
it possible that it just keeps you know
75:15
punching higher and and making fresh new
75:18
highs I mean we’re right now only a
75:20
hundred or two hundred dollars away from
75:23
those 2011 highs it’s it will be really
75:26
interesting whether or not gold makes
75:28
the next push higher first before that
75:30
much awaited consolidation kicks in well
75:34
and that’s something I’ve been thinking
75:35
about a lot is maybe that’s the next
75:38
move is up to 1922 I think was the the
75:42
2011 that’s from memory so don’t don’t
75:44
hate me if I got it wrong folks we get
75:47
back to the the 2011 high and that’s
75:50
where we have a significant technical
75:53
correction maybe back down to 1500 or
75:56
1400 or something from there the
75:59
problems with this you know look that
76:00
you couldn’t ask for better long-term
76:03
fundamentals you know that the
76:05
politicians are gonna debase fiat
76:07
currency you know they’re gonna keep on
76:09
printing money to deal with the
76:11
coronavirus crisis and the next thing
76:14
after the coronavirus crisis is going to
76:16
be universal basic income in the various
76:18
social programs that some parts of the
76:21
the political economy would like to see
76:23
in place there’s got so many reasons to
76:25
be bullish but the problem is everybody
76:28
knows that and what propels a bull
76:31
market higher is when something causes
76:35
people to make new purchases and a lot
76:39
of them what could be the policy impetus
76:42
Patrick that causes everybody to say
76:44
okay this situation it’s more bullish
76:46
than we thought we got to double down on
76:48
our gold bets right here at this price I
76:50
mean look at what the Fed has already
76:52
done Patrick literally unlimited
76:55
monetary policy accommodation to the
76:58
tune of half a trillion dollars a week
77:00
or at least it feels that way and you
77:02
know for a while we were going a couple
77:04
trillion dollars a week in new fiscal
77:07
spending bills that Congress is talking
77:09
about push
77:10
you know that they’re going to debase
77:13
the value of paper money and it’s got to
77:15
be good for gold but how do you top all
77:18
of that how do you come up with the next
77:20
news report that makes the case even
77:23
more compelling it’s already priced in I
77:26
think that’s what got us up here so what
77:28
happens Patrick if the Fed actually were
77:30
to show some restraint and maybe
77:33
moderate the amount of policy
77:35
accommodation and what if we stopped
77:37
having two trillion dollar spending
77:39
announcements from the government every
77:41
week or two then maybe we get you know
77:44
the set up so we’ve come on awfully long
77:46
ways we’re overdue for a technical
77:48
correction I still feel like it has to
77:50
come at some point but boy this chart
77:52
still looks awfully strong the this
77:54
descending triangle if it had resolved
77:56
to the downside was the setup for maybe
77:59
a really significant correction and it
78:01
looks like it’s not happening we’re
78:02
resolving to the upside instead well you
78:05
know the one thing I’ll add to that
78:06
those I mean you took a very American
78:09
approach to that which is like looking
78:11
at what the Fed itself is doing in the
78:12
US dollar obviously is the world reserve
78:14
currency but the whole world is in an
78:17
incredibly deep recession and there’s
78:19
going to be a lot of currency debasement
78:21
in in almost every country in the world
78:24
and so why you know even if there might
78:27
be a catalyst that may not have that
78:29
gold demand from the US you have to
78:31
still think that that the the safe haven
78:34
element of gold will be incredibly
78:36
popular especially in a lot of those
78:37
other cross currencies anyway let’s move
78:40
on to page six where I just wanted to
78:43
touch on uranium we don’t talk uranium
78:45
too often and rightfully so riga rana
78:48
has been a stuck in a bear market for
78:50
many many years
78:51
and what is interesting is one of the
78:54
reasons behind that has been because
78:56
there was an oversupply and they needed
78:58
to work that through that oversupply
79:00
uranium that has caused it to trade
79:03
below its actual production cost and so
79:07
what what this co vid has done though is
79:09
is that it actually shut down a number
79:12
of mines and now the catalyst for that
79:14
supply to be worked off is actually
79:17
there and so we saw a pretty bullish
79:19
breakout in uranium and they’ll be
79:21
really interesting to see whether the
79:23
bull
79:23
can not only hold this or whether this
79:26
actually is the beginning of a new bull
79:27
market in uranium so it’s certainly
79:29
something we’re watching and folks don’t
79:32
forget Patrick does webinars with charts
79:34
like this almost every single day you
79:36
can get a free trial the information is
79:38
on page 7 to sign up for Patrick’s
79:41
trading advisory service now Eric before
79:43
we wrap up the show though why don’t you
79:45
give us a quick update on what’s going
79:47
on with the kovat 19 you know I don’t
79:49
have that much new to add this week as I
79:52
continue to learn and read more about
79:54
this there’s no you know huge
79:57
earth-shaking headline or anything but I
80:00
just see more and more evidence that all
80:02
piles up to me to say this is gonna take
80:04
longer than markets are discounting I
80:07
don’t mean the economy is gonna stay
80:09
shut down but the expectations so many
80:11
people have about a v-shaped recovery
80:13
and we’re back to normal like pre virus
80:15
normal you know three or four months
80:17
from now I just don’t see it happening
80:19
there’s no good reason to assume that
80:21
there’s going to be a vaccine for this
80:24
and there’s so many different variations
80:26
and mutations of the virus already that
80:29
if we did have a vaccine it might not
80:31
cover all the different versions of it
80:33
it could take many years before we get
80:35
completely back to normal and of course
80:37
we’re going to restart the economy what
80:40
we’re gonna get is close to normal as we
80:42
can but it remains to be seen how much
80:45
of a drag this creates and I I really
80:47
love to to get Stan Druckenmiller on the
80:49
program to go into more detail on what
80:52
causes him to say that maybe this
80:54
central bank enabled credit bubble is
80:57
finally going to pop and this would be
80:58
the catalyst to do it that would really
81:01
change everything and we could be
81:02
looking at an outright depression so I
81:05
don’t think it’s nearly as simple as
81:07
v-shaped recovery and folks we’re gonna
81:09
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81:52
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81:55
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81:56
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81:58
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81:59
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82:01
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82:04
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82:05
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82:08
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82:10
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82:13
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82:19
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82:57
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82:59
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83:10
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you