Martin Gilens, professor of politics at Princeton University and a member of the executive committee of the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, discussed his new book as part of the Wilson School’s “Talk of 2012: The Upcoming Presidential Election” thematic lecture series. The discussion was co-sponsored by the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics and the Department of Politics.
so in the mid-1960s in myquantitative analysiswas a period of very low associationbetween public preferences and policyoutcomes the opposite set of politicalconditions and the strongest period ofassociation between public preferencesand policy outcomes was much to my greatsurprise during the early years of thegeorge w bush first term and when i didthat analysis and saw that not onlywhere the policy is adopted in 2001 and2002 consistent with what affluentAmericans wanted but we’re also the mostconsistent with what the middle classand the poor wanted from any period ofin my data set it was fairly certainthere must be some sort of error therein coding or something must have gonewrong so like you know a good socialscientist that Ike scoured the data tosee like where this error had emergedbut the fact of the matter is that therewas no error there and the policies thatwere adopted during those early Bushyears were in fact quite popular acrossthe income spectrum so so let me remindyou that you know Bush ran in 2000 as acompassionate conservative right hetalked about his bipartisan work withTexas Legislature and and so on and youknow I think a lot of people on the Leftkind of dismissed that as kind of acynical posturing but the truth is thatwhen Bush came into office you knowafter a very close election and afterhaving lost the popular vote the themost prominent policies that wereadopted were broadly supported centristpolicies in some cases bipartisanpolicies adopted that he worked withDemocratic legislators so I’m thinkingof things like the Medicare drug benefita long-standing Democratic Partypriority No Child Left Behind educationreforms which whatever you may think ofthem now was a bipartisanpolicy that you know senator Kennedyworked with the administration on Bush’sfaith-based initiative very popularacross income levels his compromise onstem-cell funding which contrary towidespread views actually increased thelike the range of stem cells that wereeligible for federal funding and evenhis tax cuts which clearly provided mostof the benefits in terms of dollars tothe most well-off Americans werestrongly supported across the incomespectrum so so a lot of what happenedthen was very consistent with what thepublic wanted including what the middleclass and the poor wanted but it’s notbecause of any sort of particularcommitment on the part of Bush or hisadministration to you know serving asadvocates for the poor but it waspolitical circumstances so Congress in2001 was more closely divided than ithad been at any time in half a centuryright you may remember when Bush cameinto office the Senate was split 50-50with the vice president serving as adeciding vote the Republicans had a veryslim majority in the house they losteven that sort of you know deciding votemajority in the Senate after JimJeffords abandoned at the RepublicanParty a couple months into the Bush’sfirst term so it was a very closelydivided Congress with control being upfor grabs at the next election right andthis is the opposite of what we saw inthe mid-1960s and this these two periodsrepresent a consistent pattern within mydata that when control of government isdivided and uncertain you get policyoutcomes that more strongly reflect thePreferences of the public and moreequally reflect the Preferences of lowand high-income Americans and when oneparty has dominant control then you seeresponsiveness to any groupthe public decline and in fact that’sexactly what happened when theRepublicans increased their control ofCongress so if you compare thepreference policy Association in thefirst two years of Bush’s first termwith the first two years of Bush’ssecond term right when Republicans forthe first time in half a century hadunified control of the nationalgovernment and strong majorities fairlystrong majorities in Congress not likethe 1960s but but relative to recentyears then what you saw is that theresponsiveness to the public plummetednow I should mention if you areconcerned that 9/11 and the war onterror and the wars in Afghanistan andIraq are responsible for theserelationships I was concerned about thattoo I redid these analyses afterexcluding all the policy questionshaving to do with defense and terrorismand in the wars and so on and when yousee the same pattern so that is some ofwhat was popular about the early yearsof Bush’s first term was things like thewar on terror and some of what was lesspopular in Bush’s later years but thepatterns remain the same even if we’reonly looking at domestic policy andexcluding things like on terror okay soso the point here is that politicalconditions right make a difference andthat’s one of the perhaps few sort ofhopeful findings from what for peopleconcerned about sort of normativedemocratic concerns is in general andnot particularly hopeful or optimistic aresearch project but but control ofgovernment does matter and that meansparties can be constrained to pursuepolicies that are more consistent withwhat the public wants under the rightcircumstances so there’s there’s a rayof hope there you might expect if thereif that political circumstances to saythe tenuous nature of government controlmakes a difference well so might someother ..
Affluence and Influence Economic Inequality and Political Power in America
Can a country be a democracy if its government only responds to the preferences of the rich? In an ideal democracy, all citizens should have equal influence on government policy–but as this book demonstrates, America’s policymakers respond almost exclusively to the preferences of the economically advantaged. Affluence and Influence definitively explores how political inequality in the United States has evolved over the last several decades and how this growing disparity has been shaped by interest groups, parties, and elections.
With sharp analysis and an impressive range of data, Martin Gilens looks at thousands of proposed policy changes, and the degree of support for each among poor, middle-class, and affluent Americans. His findings are staggering: when preferences of low- or middle-income Americans diverge from those of the affluent, there is virtually no relationship between policy outcomes and the desires of less advantaged groups. In contrast, affluent Americans’ preferences exhibit a substantial relationship with policy outcomes whether their preferences are shared by lower-income groups or not. Gilens shows that representational inequality is spread widely across different policy domains and time periods. Yet Gilens also shows that under specific circumstances the preferences of the middle class and, to a lesser extent, the poor, do seem to matter. In particular, impending elections–especially presidential elections–and an even partisan division in Congress mitigate representational inequality and boost responsiveness to the preferences of the broader public.
At a time when economic and political inequality in the United States only continues to rise, Affluence and Influence raises important questions about whether American democracy is truly responding to the needs of all its citizens.
Martin Gilens is professor of politics at Princeton University. He is the author of Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy.
Thomas Friedman: Everyone Is Going All the Way
It is hard to spend a week in Israel and not come away feeling that Israelis have the wind at their backs.
- They’ve built an awesome high-tech industry
- Regionally, the Arabs and Palestinians have never been weaker
- Israel has never had a more unquestioningly friendly United States.
- Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, asking Israel for nothing in return. The Arab states barely made a peep.
this wind has whetted the appetite of Israel’s settlers and ruling Likud Party to go to extremes
.. the “Likud Party unanimously urged legislators in a nonbinding resolution … to effectively annex Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, land that Palestinians want for a future state.”
.. Sure, the world would scream “apartheid,” but Israeli rightists shrug that the world will get used to it.
- Nikki Haley will cover for Israel at the U.N.
- Sheldon Adelson will keep Trump and the G.O.P. in line.
- And the Arab regimes, which need Israel to counter Iran, will look the other away.
They think they can annex the West Bank without giving Palestinians citizenship; they’ll just let the Palestinians vote in their own elections.
.. May 17, 1983 .. Israel (backed by the U.S.) imposed virtually all its security demands on a weak Lebanese government, including a framework for normalizing trade and diplomacy.
.. “Going All The Way: Christian Warlords, Israeli Adventurers and the War in Lebanon.”
I always loved that title — going all the way. It’s a recurring theme out here, and it almost always ends with a “Thelma and Louise” moment — partners driving over a cliff — and so it did with Israel in 1983.
.. everywhere I look today I see people going all the way.
- I see Republicans trashing two of our most sacred institutions — the F.B.I. and the Justice Department — because these agencies won’t bend to Trump’s will.
- I see Iran controlling four Arab capitals: Damascus, Sana, Baghdad and Beirut.
- I see Hamas still more interested in building tunnels in Gaza to kill Israelis than schools to strengthen Palestinian society.
- I see the crown prince of Saudi Arabia with one hand undertaking hugely important steps —
- moderating Saudi Islam,
- letting women drive and
- opening Saudi society culturally to the world
- and, with the other hand,
- abducting the prime minister of Lebanon,
- buying ridiculously expensive paintings and
- seizing businesses in the name of combating corruption
- I see the Taliban killing 103 people in Kabul by packing an ambulancewith explosives and driving it into a crowd.
I see Houthis, Yemeni warlords, Iranians, Saudis and the U.A.E. all tearing Yemen apart in the name of God knows what.
I see Turkey’s president silencing every critical journalist in his country.
I see the Egyptian and Russian presidents eliminating all serious rivals in their upcoming elections.
I see Bibi Netanyahu trying to derail a corruption investigation by weakening Israel’s justice system, free media and civil society — just like Trump and for the same purposes: to weaken constraints on his arbitrary use of political power.
I see an American president threatening to tear up, or actually tearing up, global agreements he doesn’t like —
the Iran nuclear deal,
Nafta,
the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
the Paris climate accord and
aid to Palestinians and Pakistanis —
but without any clear plan or alternative for the morning after that will improve on the status quo.
Worst of all, I see an America — the world’s strongest guardian of truth, science and democratic norms — now led by a serial liar and norms destroyer, giving license to everyone else to ask, why can’t I?
Can anything stop this epidemic of going all the way? Yes: Mother Nature, human nature and markets. They’ll all push back when no one else will.
.. How so?
Gaza has limited hours of electricity each day.
Result: Gaza’s already inadequate sewage plants are often offline, and waste goes untreated straight into the Mediterranean.
Then the prevailing current washes Gaza’s poop north, where it clogs Israel’s big desalination plant in Ashkelon — which provides 15 percent of Israel’s drinking water
.. In both 2016 and 2017, the Ashkelon plant had to close to clean Gaza’s crud out of its filters. It’s Mother Nature’s way of reminding both that if they try to go all the way, if they shun a healthy interdependence, she’ll poison them both.
.. then out of nowhere Iranians back home start protesting against Suleimani’s overreach; they’re tired of seeing their money spent on Gaza and Syria — not on Iranians. And, just as suddenly, the biggest internet meme in Iran becomes an Iranian woman ripping off her veil and holding it upon the end of a stick.
.. And if you don’t think markets have a way of curing excesses, you didn’t read the top story in The Times.
.. Watch out for
- the market,
- Mother Nature and
- human nature.
.. One is the relentless product of chemistry, biology and physics; one is the balance between greed and fear; and the third is the eternal human quest for freedom and dignity. In the end, they’ll shape the future more than any leader or party who tries going all the way.
The death of Christianity in the U.S.
Christianity has died in the hands of Evangelicals. Evangelicalism ceased being a religious faith tradition following Jesus’ teachings concerning justice for the betterment of humanity when it made a Faustian bargain for the sake of political influence. The beauty of the gospel message — of love, of peace and of fraternity — has been murdered by the ambitions of Trumpish flimflammers who have sold their souls for expediency. No greater proof is needed of the death of Christianity than the rush to defend a child molester in order to maintain a majority in the U.S. Senate.
Evangelicalism has ceased to be a faith perspective rooted on Jesus the Christ and has become a political movement whose beliefs repudiate all Jesus advocated. A message of hate permeates their pronouncements, evident in sulphurous proclamations like the Nashville Statement, which elevates centuries of sexual dysfunctionalities since the days of Augustine by imposing them upon Holy Writ.
.. Evangelicalism’s unholy marriage to the Prosperity Gospel justifies multi-millionaire bilkers wearing holy vestments made of sheep’s clothing
.. Christianity at a profit is an abomination before all that is Holy. From their gilded pedestals erected in white centers of wealth and power, they gaslight all to believe they are the ones being persecuted because of their faith.
.. Evangelicalism’s embrace of a new age of ignorance, blames homosexuality for Harvey’s rage rather than considering the scientific consequences climate change
.. Evangelicalism forsakes holding a sexual predator, an adulterer, a liar and a racist accountable, instead serving as a shield against those who question POTUS’ immorality because of some warped reincarnation of Cyrus.
.. Charlottesville goose steppers because they protect their white privilege with the doublespeak of preserving heritage
.. The Evangelicals’ Jesus is satanic, and those who hustle this demon are “false apostles, deceitful workers, masquerading as apostles of Christ. And no wonder, for Satan himself masquerades as an angel of light.
.. You might wonder if my condemnation is too harsh. It is not, for the Spirit of the Lord has convicted me to shout from the mountaintop