Reply All: The Crime Machine, Part I

New York City cops are in a fight against their own police department. They say it’s under the control of a broken computer system that punishes cops who refuse to engage in racist, corrupt policing. The story of their fight, and the story of the grouchy idealist who originally built the machine they’re fighting.

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#128 The Crime Machine, Part II

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Political support for a sea wall in New York Harbor begins to form

The cost of building sea barriers that would protect New York City and parts of New Jersey from storm surges is likely to run as high as $23 billion, according to the Dutch scientist commissioned by New York City to study how it might respond to the extreme weather events and rising sea levels brought about by climate change.

The cost estimate has caused sticker shock among some elected officials, most notably New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has bristled at the proposal, even after Superstorm Sandy flooded vast swaths of Coney Island, Lower Manhattan and Queens and left 43 people dead.

But a groundswell of public backing for the concept, combined with an estimated $50 billion in storm-related damages, means support is forming for close scrutiny of the likely costs and benefits of constructing sea barriers in New York Harbor.

Jeroen Aerts, a professor of water and climate risk at VU University Amsterdam, who is the scientist leading the study, said interest in the project before Hurricane Sandy was “low, very low. Really, extremely low.”

“This is not to blame the U.S. or the city whatsoever,” he added. “This has to do with looking into the future and to incorporate forward looking into your daily practices. This is difficult, especially for policymakers.”

Hurricane Katrina was a wake-up call for New Orleans, said Aerts, “and apparently it takes Hurricane Sandy to make people aware that New York City is also vulnerable.”

In 2011, when Hurricane Irene prompted officials to evacuate 400,000 New York residents, Aerts was asked by the New York City Department of City Planning to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of constructing storm surge barriers like those in his home country, the Netherlands.

The department requested that he also evaluate the ways in which current land use and building codes might be amended in order to improve the city’s adaptive capacity and build its resilience to climate change.

Cheap solution: $10B

The cheapest scenario, he said, includes two barriers: a large structure between Sandy Hook and the Rockaways and smaller one at the northern part of the East River. He estimated that these would cost roughly $10 billion.

The other strategy, he said, involves the construction of three or four barriers: one across Arthur Kill, the narrow strait between Staten Island and New Jersey; one across the Verrazano Narrows; one in the East River; and possibly another running across Jamaica Bay.

That scenario, he said, would cost “a maximum of $17 billion.” Aerts explained that these estimates do not include the costs of building up coastal protection outside of the barrier.

Once the storm gates are closed, everything inside the barrier is protected from storm surges. Outside those barriers, though, levees and sand dunes would need to be constructed in order to keep back not only the initial storm surge but also the water that would otherwise flow into the areas behind the sea barriers.

Aerts estimated that 25 miles of coastal protection would need to be constructed, adding as much as $15 billion to the cost of building the barriers.

Further study, he said, needs to be done of “the side effects” of building a barrier, such as the ecological impacts on inland estuaries and coastal marshes. The barriers are technologically feasible, he said, but the primary obstacle will be securing the financing and navigating the complex and overlapping regulatory structure that involves multiple local, state and federal agencies.

A $20 billion proposal

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn on Tuesday announced a $20 billion proposal for improving New York City’s climate change preparedness. In addition to investing in subway, sewage and electrical grid protection, the plan calls for fast-tracking Aerts’ study.

As part of the speaker’s proposal, New York Sen. Charles Schumer (D) will lead an effort in the U.S. Congress to tap the Army Corps of Engineers to conduct a study into the feasibility of constructing sea surge barriers around New York City.

Quinn is a front-runner in the 2013 mayor’s race, and her proposal offers a hint that disaster response and climate change may be central topics in the contest to succeed Bloomberg.

In announcing the proposal, Quinn pointed out that sea surge barriers have been built along the Dutch coast and in London’s portion of the River Thames. She also described how engineers in Stamford, Conn., “with the click of a mouse, brought a storm surge gate rising up from the water as Sandy approached.”

The Connecticut barrier was built following a strong hurricane that hit in 1938. “It’s now crystal clear that we need to build protective structures,” she said.

“This is really a giant step forward,” said Robert Trentlyon, a resident of Lower Manhattan’s Chelsea neighborhood and for many years a leader in a citizen effort to build support for the construction of a sea barrier.

Trentlyon has secured the backing of many Manhattan community boards, the advisory groups appointed by each of New York City’s borough presidents, and championed the concept at City Council meetings.

Sandy flooded most of Lower Manhattan, including several subway and vehicle tunnels, and knocked out power south of 39th Street on the eastern side of the island and south of 31st Street on the western side. “We have a lot of support for this,” he said.

What happens when the memory fades?

Aerts will travel to New York City in December to present his preliminary findings to city officials and at a gathering of scientists. He said the report will be finished by the summer of 2013.

“In a few months’ time, the discussion will be different,” warned Aerts. “Now the memory is fresh. In a few months’ time, there will be another crisis. The mess has been cleaned up. The people in Breezy Point may have a new home. And suddenly the discussion becomes different.”

The environmental lobby and people concerned that storm surge barriers will compromise their view will be the primary opponents, he said.

“I cannot predict exactly what will happen,” said Aerts, “but I do think that costs and benefits are really a technical approach. In the end, it’s really the sentiments and the emotions of people that play a big role, and politicians are very sensitive to those emotions in society.”

The Real Governments of Blue America

Officially, a big part of the federal government shut down late last month. In important ways, however, America’s government went AWOL almost two years earlier, when Donald Trump was inaugurated.

After all, politicians supposedly seek office in order to get stuff done — to tackle real problems and implement solutions. But neither Trump, who spends his energy inventing crises at the border, nor the Republicans who controlled Congress for two years have done any of that. Their only major legislative achievement was a tax cut that blew up the deficit without, as far as anyone can tell, doing anything to enhance the economy’s long-run growth prospects.

Meanwhile, there has been no hint of the infrastructure plan Trump promised to deliver. And after many years of denouncing Obamacare and promising to provide a far better replacement, Republicans turned out to have no idea how to do that, and in particular no plan to protect Americans with pre-existing conditions.

Why can’t Republicans govern? It’s not just that their party is committed to an ideology that says that government is always the problem, never the solution. Beyond that, they have systematically deprived themselves of the ability to analyze policies and learn from evidence, because hard thinking might lead someone to question received doctrine.

And Republicans still control the Senate and the White House. So even when (if?) the shutdown ends, it will be at least two years before we have a government in Washington that’s actually capable of, or even interested in, governing.

Until recently Republicans had a virtual lock on state government. Almost half the population lived in states with Republican “trifectas,” that is, G.O.P. control of both houses plus the governorship. Democrats had comparable control in California, and pretty much nowhere else.

But elections since then have transformed the picture. New Jersey and Washington went full Democratic in 2017, and six more states, including Illinois and New York, flipped in November. At this point more than a third of Americans live under full Democratic control, not far short of the Republican total.

These newly empowered majorities are moving quickly to start governing again. And the experience of states that already had Democratic trifectas suggests that they may achieve a lot.

And health care isn’t the only front for new action. For example, Newsom is also proposing major new spending on education and housing affordability. The latter is very important: Soaring housing costs are the biggest flaw in California’s otherwise impressive success story.

Now, let’s be clear: Not all of the new Democratic policy proposals will actually be implemented, and not all of those that do go into effect will live up to expectations. There’s no such thing as perfection, in policy or in life, and leaders who never experience failures or setbacks aren’t taking enough risks.

The point, however, is that newly empowered state and local politicians do seem willing to take risks and try new things in an effort to make progress against the nation’s problems.

And that’s a very hopeful sign for America, because their example may prove contagious.

Justice Louis Brandeis famously described the states as the laboratories of democracy; right now they’re the places where we’re seeing what it looks like when elected officials try to do what they were elected to do, and actually govern. If we’re lucky, two years from now that attitude may re-establish itself in the nation’s capital.

 

Michael Dell Paid a Record $100.47 Million for Manhattan’s One57 Penthouse

Michael Dell was the buyer behind the $100.47 million purchase of a penthouse on Manhattan’s Billionaire’s Row, according to two people familiar with the deal. The transaction, which closed in 2014, holds the record for the most expensive home ever sold in New York City.

.. Located in One57, a more than 1,000-foot-tall glass tower on West 57th Street, the duplex apartment totals 10,923 square feet with six bedrooms and six bathrooms, according to an offering plan for the project.

.. It is the first and only property in the city to break the $100 million barrier, public records show, but that record is widely expected to be broken by the sale of a penthouse at a nearby project at 220 Central Park South, which has not yet closed.

.. Last year, Mr. Dell entered into contract to buy another penthouse in Boston. The property is in the Four Seasons Private Residences One Dalton Street and had been on the market for close to $40 million.

.. also bought a $10.9 million condo at Boston’s Millennium Tower in 2016, records show, following a $60 billion deal by his company to acquire EMC, based in Hopkinton, Mass.

National Review Finally Gets It Right on Stop-and-Frisk

In 2013, a federal judge ruled that the New York City police tactic of Stop-and-Frisk was unconstitutional because it violated the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition on illegal searches and seizures. It was good to have such a ruling, but the notion that police officers could search random people based on nothing more than a hunch should have struck everyone as unconstitutional from the get-go. In America, you can’t just stop passersby (so many of whom were innocent) and intrude on their personal spaces and lives in brute fashion.

.. Democrat Bill de Blasio vowed to end the practice, something many in law enforcement and on the political right insisted would inevitably spike crime. That isn’t what happened. Today crime is down in New York City significantly, to levels not seen since the 1950s.

.. de Blasio was correct in saying the city could withstand a sharp decrease in stop-and-frisk. And he was right to draw attention to the social cost of the practice; more than 80 percent of those subjected to stop-and-frisk since the start of the Bloomberg administration were, according to the NYPD, completely innocent. That means hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers were unjustly subjected to embarrassment or even humiliation.

.. The basic freedom of a man or woman to walk down the streets of New York or any other city without fear of being harassed by law enforcement is something we should all be able to agree on and defend. There are no exceptions great enough to dismiss that principle. It’s why we have a Fourth Amendment in the first place.

.. Government will always tend towards exploiting our fear to take away our constitutional rights: mass shootings, murderous white supremacists, urban crime.

 

Shields and Gerson on Trump’s deal with Democrats, DACA’s demise

Republicans were livid with the way Trump handled them over the debt ceiling.  They were not livid over all Trump’s other outrages.

Trump has special chemistry with Chuck Schumer, as a fellow New Yorker.

Trump delighted in favorable press coverage from the Mainstream Media he claims to hate.

Rare look at Trump bookkeeping: ‘Extraordinary flim-flammery’

Trump was basically running two sets of books to distort the amount that he owed the city.
  • The auditors were physically blocked from accessing the books.
  • A staggering amount of information was lost: 7 months out of 12 months of the data
  • Trump offered the auditor’s brother a job.
  • A city clerk mis-labeled the report
  • Years later they reached an undisclosed settlement.