The Case Against the CBO

That criticism is correct, and Republicans should make alterations so that a lot more people get covered. But the criticism is also exaggerated.

.. But the CBO has gotten its estimates badly wrong before. Before Congress enacted Obamacare, the office projected that by this year, its exchanges would enroll 23 million people. As late as June 2015, the CBO was sticking to this projection. The actual number is about nine million.

.. Its report then added, “Most of those reductions in coverage would stem from repealing the penalties associated with the individual mandate.”

 .. If this is right, the implication is that many people who would “lose” coverage after the partial repeal of Obamacare would be better described as people who would drop their coverage. They are buying it only to avoid the fines, and do not think their coverage is worth what they are paying for it.
.. But would millions of people really leave Medicaid if the fines ended? Would they really, that is, stop taking advantage of a free program?
.. If you’re a health-policy staffer for a leading congressional Republican, advocating for more generous tax credits for people with low incomes would require taking on conservatives who object to progressivity. And even if you win that fight, the CBO might still say that coverage will decline substantially without the individual mandate.