00:06I am very excited to welcome yasha monk00:09and EJ Dionne back to politics and pros00:11Yasha monk is here to talk about his new00:13book the People vs democracy why our00:16freedom is in danger and how to save it00:20as the cold war drew to a close in 198900:24Francis Fukuyama’s the end of history00:27posited that liberal democracy had won00:30and would be the final ideological forum00:33but almost 30 years later we see that00:35this is not in fact the case00:38drawing on recent examples from the US00:41and Europe monk demonstrates how as00:43liberalism and democracy come apart they00:46tend towards extremes of either an00:49illiberal democracy under the sway of00:53populist demagogues or an undemocratic00:57liberalism run by two technocratic00:59elites Yasha Monk is the author of the01:02age of responsibility and is a lecturer01:05Harvard as well as a senior fellow in01:08the political reform program at new01:11America01:12he is joined today in conversation by EJ01:15Dionne01:16a Washington Post columnist and01:18co-author of one nation after Trump01:20which we also have many copies of here01:22at the store so Melissa please give a01:24warm welcome to Yoshi McKinney javion01:33Thank You Isaac I asked so I wouldn’t01:36have to so that was very kind of him01:39Thanks thank you all for coming and01:41thanks to a lot of old friends I see01:43here today I just want to say politics01:46and prose arranges some of the very best01:49conversations on the crisis facing01:51democracy and on public problems01:55generally and I think if we could locate01:57a politics in Pro and pros in every01:59community in the United States and02:01across the democracies we wouldn’t have02:04a yahoo in the pad to write this book02:06I’m also really happy to be here because02:09like many of you I have become a Yasha02:11fan over the last several years I admire02:15his sharp mind and warm heart and both02:18of them are02:19and he comes at his concern for a02:22liberal democracy and his commitment to02:24a greater degree of social justice from02:27both personal experience and deep and02:29serious philosophical reflection that02:32earlier book is is really good too if02:34they have it around here today he’ll02:37sign them both I am sure if you care to02:39buy one I just what I want to do what02:43we’re going to do today is have a02:44conversation up here he and I have been02:46talking about this book for a while02:48indeed he was kind enough to visit with02:50my students up at Harvard where I taught02:53last semester and gave them an advance02:55look at some of the chapters of the book02:56and we had a wonderful conversation02:58there and he and I have had friendly03:00discussions including a couple of03:02arguments that I want to service here03:04friend very friendly arguments won over03:07populism and the other over the role of03:10young people in the future and so we’re03:13going to talk about that but first I03:16want y’all should I have a chance to03:17introduce the book I am going to read03:19every author should have a paragraph03:21like this in the book that very neatly03:24summarizes the core argument in this03:27case of the first half of what the03:29problems are so I’m going to read this03:31and then I’m going to ask Yasha to tell03:33you a bit about himself because as I say03:36his commitment on these issues comes03:37from his own background he became an03:40American citizen last year correct we03:42should welcome Yasha with a round of03:44applause and we are very lucky to have03:49him and I want him to talk about sort of03:52his background a bit and how he came to03:55write this book then we will get to some03:59of the issues but first my dramatic04:01reading once upon a time liberal04:04democracies could assure their citizens04:06of a very rapid increase in their living04:09standards now they no longer can04:12once-upon-a-time political elites04:14control the most important means of04:16communication and could effectively04:18exclude radical views from the public04:20sphere04:21now political Outsiders can spread lies04:23and hatred with abandon and once upon a04:26time the homogeneity of their citizens04:28or at least a see for a shil hierarchy04:31was a big part04:32of what held liberal democracies04:34together now citizens have to learn how04:37to live in a much more equal and diverse04:39democracy04:40welcome Yasha and please tell folks a04:43bit about yourself and how you came to04:45write this book like at what moment04:47after how many hours after either breaks04:50it or Trump’s election did you decide04:54well well I think what sort of04:57interesting surprising is what I started04:59to write this book before I’ve a brexit05:01Oh Trump happened um other people05:03weren’t so interested in me writing the05:05book at the time because they kind of05:07thought I was a little bit of a weird05:08crank when I started to to argue three05:12four years ago05:13there’s real warning sign for our05:16democracies not assume United States but05:18in big parts of Europe as well05:20people always accuse me of being a05:22Cassandra um and I wanted to respond to05:25I didn’t because I realized oh just give05:26me you know dig me even deep into the05:28hole Cassandra was right damn it that’s05:30the whole point of Cassandra that’s his05:33next book that’s my Cassandra was right05:36dammit exclamation mark there uh you05:40know I mean why is it that our sort of05:41more life to those dangers then when05:43some other people I think a mix of a05:46personal story and some academic05:47interest of mine I mean so you know05:49personally my family has had a bad habit05:52of being in the wrong place at the wrong05:54time for these free generations so I’ve05:56seen you know and my great grandparents05:59my grandparents my parents how you know06:02the political situation ended up being06:04quite differently from what they06:05expected and how they affect that06:07affected their own lives so I think you06:09know to me the idea that political06:11systems can turn and then that can have06:14quite tragic consequences in a very06:15personal way is is concrete rather than06:19abstract and that I think probably06:21anticipating a little bit what part of06:23our conversation might be later06:24separates me from many other people my06:26generation who grew up in United States06:28or other people who grew up in big parts06:30of Europe the other thing is where as an06:32academic I started to think about how06:36people actually feel about our political06:37system now what people have known for a06:40long time is that approval ratings for06:44Congress and for particular politicians06:46keep getting lower that participation06:49and former politics gets lower and also06:51some united states but also in Europe06:53that people the approval ratings for for06:57Congress of Supreme Court for presidency06:59have been sinking but forty years ago07:01people trusted politicians and now we07:04don’t anymore and majority so that was07:06all clear it with a colleague of mine of07:08metaphor we started to look at how do07:11people actually feel about a political07:12system itself so do they say it’s07:15important to him to live in a democracy07:16are they open to a foreign alternatives07:19to democracy and we started to see that07:22those attitudes had started to shift as07:24well but actually fewer young people now07:28say it’s really important to him to live07:29in a democracy but the number of people07:31who say I want a strongman leader who07:33doesn’t have to bubble of parliament or07:34elections or even I think army rule is a07:37good system of government has gone up07:39significant and so you know when we saw07:42that a few years before Trump was07:43elected we really started to worry about07:46what’s going on when you look back at07:50we’re opinion was in a lot of the West07:54after the fall of the Berlin Wall and07:57loose in his wonderful book has a07:59wonderful description of journeying to08:02the wall very excited with a bunch of08:04students and there was a feeling that08:05aha liberal democracy has finally08:08triumphed a lot of these problems have08:10disappeared and there is nothing but08:13success on the horizon what happened08:17what happened and why were these08:20predictions so wall what were people08:22missing in 1989 or did developments08:26afterward change yeah so the obvious way08:30to frame this is around Francis08:31Fukuyama’s argument the end of history08:33which said that for the first time in08:37living memory there was no real08:38ideological competitor to liberal08:40democracy in the 19th century that been08:42absolute monarchy but some degree be in08:44favor Christie but 20th century was08:46fascism and communism all of those had08:48failed and in 1989 though Fukuyama have08:52a claim for democracy was everywhere08:54that there would no longer be any08:55historical event so it’s a miss reading08:56what he was saying he said08:59yes sir he was saying look there’s no09:03real system that people would rather09:05live in people are deeply committed to09:07liberal democracy of the system and so09:09we don’t really have to worry about its09:11persistence now even some people who are09:13skeptical of Fukuyama actually bought09:15that cool faeces for big parts of North09:19America and Western Europe so political09:21scientists who would you know were very09:22empirical and counting you know numbers09:25and playing around and Stata and are09:26they09:27they might afford over the end of09:29history you know what a silly phrase but09:31they actually had the same belief so09:33there’s a famous article by someone09:34called Adam Przewalski’s in the 90s who09:36said look at all of the democracies that09:38have over 15,000 dollars GDP per capita09:40but have had at least two changes of09:43government for free and fair elections09:45well you know what all of those places09:47are safe you no longer have to worry09:49about the persistence of a democratic09:51system in those countries09:55and those reliant on the assumption that09:57democracy had become consolidated which09:59is a phrase in literature which would10:01mean when was the only game in town and10:03that’s precisely what we set out to test10:05and what we described what I described10:06with some degree in this book which is10:08is it still true but everybody gives us10:10importance to democracy is it still true10:12that people reject versus alternatives10:14to moxie out of hand and most10:16importantly are there any politicians10:18and political movements that will10:22actually have real power in the system10:23and reject the most basic rules and10:26norms of liberal10:28office for a long time that’s no longer10:30the case that populace had been rising10:32not just here and there and American10:34primaries where they sort of shut up for10:37a little moment and when crashed again I10:39think of all of the extreme candidates10:41but briefly led the pack and Republican10:43primary fields not just in 2016 but in10:462012 and 2008 and so on so forth but you10:50also saw a very steady rise of populism10:53in Europe for a long time in a paper10:55with some news here today Martin Hammond10:57we show that the share of populist11:00parties in Europe has increased from11:02about 8 percent in mere 2000 to 2511:05percent more reason and so the whole11:10world on which we based the conviction11:13but we don’t have to worry about11:15democracy anymore after 1989 went far11:17beyond and I think it’s now been11:20challenged in ways would go far beyond11:23Donald Trump but a few weeks back a11:25Brahmin and was here to talk about his11:27book to fight against the age he thinksit’s actually important that we callthis new right-wing nationalism by itsname and he believes that aim is fascismdo you agree with that or or not and howdo you analyze what is the nature ofthis ideologyI disagree for up on this and andthere’s a number of reasons for thatI’m the first is that11:56it’s really easy to think of the11:59collapse of democracy as requiring12:00something like what happened in Germany12:02in the nineteen thirties12:04right so we’re only going to lose12:06democracy if lots of people give a12:08Hitler salute you know by riebeck ugly12:10black boots and ran from the center of12:13town of tortures right and some of that12:16happens some of that exists and when you12:17look at Charlottesville there’s12:18obviously people who quite openly are12:21fascists in our country today but you12:24know what despite all of horribleness of12:26what happened in Charlottesville that12:27was the only danger we faced I wouldn’t12:30be too concerned I wouldn’t be writing12:32this me what you see fo in countries12:34from Russia to to Turkey and countries12:39today like Poland and Hungary is there12:41as many other ways in which democracy12:43can come under real attack and those are12:45a lot much more subtle it’s not people12:47who say I’m a fascist I want to get rid12:50of democracy it’s people who say you12:52know what you’ve been disempowered12:54people have taken a real power away from12:56you and I’m the only real Democrat I12:59alone actually represent the people13:01I am your voice as Donald Trump said in13:02the Republican National Convention so13:05give me your votes what I can return13:07power to the people and that I think is13:09the real danger to democracy at the13:11moment so calling that fascist is makes13:14us lazy because we think well there’s13:16nobody in in black boots and torches in13:18the streets so why should we worry and I13:20think it makes it more difficult for us13:23to understand the specific nature of13:25populism now here we have a disagreement13:28as perhaps some of you saw so AJ is13:31excellent column and Washington Post I’m13:32about a week ago in which he basically13:35says there’s good forms of populism13:37now you know the word populism is a13:39little confusing um and and you know13:42there are some people who have13:43historically been quote populist who has13:45sometimes called populist now who I13:47think can contribute a certain13:48corrective to the system but the way13:50that I describe populism in this book13:52and the way that I can make sense of it13:54I don’t think there is such a good13:56fingers good and the reason the13:58following word is a populist at heart14:00it’s not somebody who says the certain14:03things wrong with our politicians and14:05some of them are corrupt and some of my14:06self-serving and it’s really important14:08that we win in order to make through14:09that’s a normal part of Porter’s those14:12Barack Obama as much as anybody else14:13right talk about a rigged system and so14:15on there’s nothing dangerous about that14:18but what populist s– have uniquely is14:21that they say only I truly represent the14:26people the only reason why we have any14:29real political problems at the moment is14:30the politicians are corrupt and14:31self-serving and I can fix all of that14:34because I stand for ordinary people I14:36manage to channel their wisdom and their14:39views and this means with anybody who14:42opposes me who disagrees with me is by14:44definition illegitimate so give me all14:47of the power and if the courts are going14:49to stand up to that because what I’m14:51doing is unconstitutional then they are14:54being an American14:56right if the media is criticizing me14:59then they’re enemies of the people if15:01your position is trying to use its15:03institutional prerogatives to limit how15:06much I can do then they are traitors and15:09this is true of populist in different15:12countries and of different stripes15:14Donald Trump and recive erawan and15:16Google Shabbos don’t have much in common15:18for example Donald Trump doesn’t seem to15:20be overly fond of Muslims whereas15:22receipe Erawan doesn’t seem to be overly15:24fond of anybody who’s not a Muslim but15:27they share this trait they share the15:29trait of saying the only reasons why we15:32have political problems as bad feelings15:34are corrupt15:34I represent ordinary people and I can15:37solve it but to do that you have to give15:39me all of the power because anybody who15:41disagrees with me is a traitor is15:43legitimate and that kind of populism15:46will always be a danger to the basic15:50principles of democracy and that’s why I15:51think is always going to be dangerous I15:53don’t want to pursue this too far15:54because I want yeah should I have a15:56chance to present the rest of his book15:57but just for fun I want to just take15:59this one one time which is in a way is16:02your argument about populism in16:04contradiction to the argument about16:05fascism because what Rob’s argument is16:08is you don’t have to wear Jack boots are16:10seeing the horse vessel song to be a16:12fascist and that in fact the danger may16:15be hidden from us because people are16:17doing it in the name of democracy and16:19after all the word VOC that Hitler16:21invoked was the people and so there is16:25so I just want to pursue that and then16:28on the populist side I I would basically16:32assert and we that this why we probably16:34shouldn’t go too long on this populism16:36is an essentially contested concept and16:39I think that there are those who see16:41populist more in ameri in the terms of16:44our old American populist movement which16:46was largely a democratizing movement and16:49I think there’s actually a difference16:50across the oceans on this as well which16:53is I think Europeans because of the16:56nature of the right-wing populism you16:58face are more likely to see populism as17:01anti-democratic so just take that and17:03then I want to just pursue a couple17:05arguments in the book and I want to let17:06this learn an audience participate as17:09well17:10so look like certainly certain17:11similarities between some forms of17:13populism in some forms of fascism but17:15but very essential differences as well17:17one of them is how openly hostile17:19fascism is to democracy which yes the17:22fact but I agree the problems covertly17:24hostile to to democracy but but fascism17:27has always been openly hostile and17:29that’s an important thing to understand17:30and so if we think is vis like fascism17:33we’re gonna say well Donald Trump is not17:34overtly hostile to democracy so why does17:37anybody worry we all Toronto firms as17:39some people have charge right and that’s17:40that’s a real mistake that really makes17:42it more difficult for us to understand17:43there’s also crucial difference in the17:45kind of forms of political regime that17:48those countries tend to Institute so17:51there was an important distinction17:52between dictatorships and totalitarian17:57regimes right most fascist systems tend18:00to be totalitarian regimes which is to18:03say that every sphere of politics on18:06society becomes deeply imbued with18:10ideological fervor you cannot have a18:13chess club that isn’t organized along18:16fascist lines right and that is the same18:18in communist um now I think populist18:22don’t tend to erect regimes like that18:23when you think of Turkey when you think18:25of Russia there are places where as long18:28as you don’t criticize the government as18:30long as you don’t pose a threat to the18:33dictator you get to do whatever you want18:35and so again I think populism and18:37fascism actually erect systems that are18:40very different as well18:41now look I agree with you this concept18:43of essentially contests that is18:45important right there’s no one natural18:47way of defining democracy there’s no one18:49natural way of defining populism in a18:52way it is a question of which definition18:55allows us to understand what’s going on18:58in the world the best at the moment and19:00what I would say is that for I19:03understand was different kinds of19:04movement called populist in American19:06history I don’t think that that is very19:09useful as a term at the moment because19:11what we need to understand is why is all19:13of this stuff happening around the world19:15why do you see erawan and Turkey why do19:17you see Victor Arbonne in Hungary why do19:19you see marine lepen in France why do19:21you see Donald Trump in the United19:22States all of the same19:23and the best way of making sense of that19:26I think is to use my understanding and19:28be understanding some of the economic19:29literature on populism because that19:32precisely brings out with very important19:34commonalities between people who also19:36have some important differences to each19:37other let’s go through some of the core19:41arguments of the book you talk and and19:44let’s sort of start with economics19:48versus immigration and we’ve talked19:50about this before one of the hardest19:51things I think to sort through is19:54whether this surge was caused by a19:57globalized economy economic distress the20:01decline of upward mobility particularly20:03here in the US or whether the driving20:07force even more than economics was a20:10fear of widespread immigration of20:12backlash against widespread immigration20:15on the side of the immigration the20:17primacy of immigration would be the idea20:21that some of these movements have shown20:22up in places like the Netherlands which20:25have fairly well distributed economic20:27growth relative to other countries but20:32I’d like you to sort of parse economics20:35versus immigration and maybe give people20:38a sense of some of what you talk about20:40as solutions to these dilemmas so first20:44of all in trying to understand why is20:46all of this happening at the moment I20:48took inspiration from a story that at20:50first has nothing to do with populism or20:52Donald Trump so it’s a nice little20:53respite told by Bertrand Russell he said20:57well once upon a time there was a21:00chicken on a farm and it led a very nice21:03life it was a kind of chicken we’d all21:04like to eat for dinner which is to say21:06that you know it’s got to run around21:07freely and do whatever it wanted um and21:12and but all the other animals on the21:14farm kept warning it and said be careful21:16one day the farmer is gonna come and21:20kill you I’m a chicken said what are you21:22talking about that farmers be nice to me21:24all of my life he’s always fed me and21:27muttered some encouraging words21:28why would things suddenly be so21:30different well Russell and his nice wit21:33says that eventually of course but21:35chicken21:36did learn but he was wrong the the21:38farmer came to ring with chicken snack21:41showing that more sophisticated views as21:44the uniformity of causation would have21:45been to a chicken’s benefit what does he21:48mean by that right while the most21:50sophisticated views of uniformity of21:52causation what what he meant is quite21:53simple that scope conditions on how the21:55social world works right as long as the21:58chicken was too thin to be taken to a21:59market the farmer had an incentive to22:01keep feeding it once it was big enough22:03to fetch a decent price how he behaved22:07was going to change now why is it that22:10liberal democracy has been incredibly22:11stable around the world for the last 5022:13or 60 years and now we start to see it22:15seemingly being less and less stable22:17well let’s look at the scope conditions22:19what was truthful is past 50 60 years22:22there is no longer true and it seems to22:24me would best three big things there and22:26we’re sometimes put in competition with22:27each other but all of the interesting22:29phenomena in human history have always22:31had more than one cause the world is not22:33mono causal right so the first is living22:38standards in the United States from 194522:40to 1960 the living standards of the22:43average American doubled from 1960 to22:461985 we doubled again since 1985 they’ve22:50been stagnant now that makes a real22:53difference about how people perceive22:55politics they used to say well you know22:58what um I don’t love politicians you23:01know his belt with his Washington DC23:03stuff you know it’s a little weird but23:05in the end they seem to be delivering23:07for me right they seem to be sticking to23:09their end of a deal so let’s give him23:11the benefit of a doubt now people are23:14saying I’m allowed to swear in this23:17bookstore yeah that’s where one since he23:19was a shot off my microphone um now23:21people are saying you know what I’ve23:23worked really hard all of my life I23:24don’t have much to show for it I think23:26my kids are gonna be worse off than me23:27let’s throw some against who won’t23:29see what sticks how bad can things get23:30how mile that is I know our country if23:36it weren’t for Trump would have gotten a23:38better reaction and now look the23:41counter-argument against this and this23:43has been reserved researched a lot in23:45the in the media and so on is to say oh23:48but it’s not necessarily true23:50people who voted for their own Trump23:52were much poorer than those who voted23:53for Hillary Clinton grant it but it’s a23:56little bit more complicated than that23:58that’s it’s really bad test of whether24:00the economic causes matter what’s24:02interesting is that not just in the24:03United States but in many parts in many24:06countries publicity doing very well24:07around the world you see a very clear24:09distinction between urban and24:13economically dynamic parts of a country24:16and others so in the United States24:18Donald Trump won over two-thirds of24:20American counties but something like24:22one-third of America’s GDP he did much24:25better in parts of a country where24:28there’s very little recent investment24:29where people are less educated even24:32where the share of jobs were the subject24:34to automation in the coming decades is24:37much higher because people there realize24:40I might still be doing fine but I have a24:43lot to fear from the future now my24:47second course has to do with with24:50culture and ethnicity and immigration24:51this is really stark in Europe where24:54most countries became stable democracies24:57at a time when there were more24:59homogeneous than it previous parts of25:03the history because of a tragic effects25:04of World War two and in which they had a25:08clear mono-ethnic monocultural25:10conception of who Rudy blocks when you25:12asked a German where I grew up an25:15Italian and a Swede in 1960 hue really25:19belongs to the country it would have25:20been obvious that it’s somebody who’s25:21descended genetically from the same set25:24of people but it certainly isn’t25:25somebody who’s brown or black somebody25:27who’s Muslim or Hindu now thankfully25:30that started to change over the last 5025:32or 60 years there has been a lot of25:34immigration and people have actually25:36started to adapt more liberal and25:38understandings of citizenship and of25:40belonging there’s also a strong reaction25:43against that and for either and for25:45Mirman condone that reaction and none of25:48us should I think is actually easy to25:50understand why that would be the case if25:52you say hey I may not be the richest guy25:56I may not have the best education you25:58know I may not have a most social26:01respect but at least I’m better than red26:03immigrant over there26:04right at least I have a high social26:05status with that well it now thankfully26:07has politicians who are immigrants or26:10children of immigrants you might go to26:11your to your work and your boss might be26:14an immigrant well the fact that some26:16people feel like they’ve lost something26:18there that some social standing has been26:20taken away actually isn’t too surprising26:23now the United States is both similar26:25and different it’s different because26:27we’ve always been a multi-ethnic society26:29there’s always been many different26:30ethnicities living here but it’s similar26:33in rep has always been a very strict26:35racial hierarchy which gave one set of26:37people big advantages and privileges26:39over others now again I think we would26:41do well to remember though we’ve26:43actually come a very long way in26:44overcoming that despite the obvious26:47ongoing injustice in our country it is a26:50much better place for minorities to live26:52than 20 or 40 or 60 years ago and a lot26:56of people have started to embrace the26:59idea of an equal multi-ethnic Society27:01but again there’s a lot of people have27:03something to lose from that and who are27:04rebelling against bet again I don’t27:06condone that but it shouldn’t surprise27:07us that that is going on alright so if27:11you have the anger and the basic27:16distrust of our politics because people27:18are feeling like my life is not getting27:20any better I’m afraid of a future27:22economically if that often takes a27:24cultural form of a backlash against27:26immigration a backlash against racial27:27equality when you add the third27:30ingredient social media27:32which makes it so much easier for people27:35to challenge a media consensus to27:39challenge the gatekeepers who used to27:42say what can be a part of our political27:44discourse and what can’t now27:47in some ways that’s a good thing it’s a27:49good thing in dictatorships because we27:50Democratic opposition now has a much27:52easier time telling a telling a27:57population with truth about corruption27:59about repression and so on it can be a28:02good thing in our country as well if you28:04think about we meet the V men’s platform28:06that the students at Parkland High in28:09Florida immediately gained after the28:11horrible mass shooting there and their28:13ability to make her voice is hurt and28:15engage engage the public in a push for28:17change on gun control but at the same28:21time it also obviously makes it easier28:22for hateful voices for people who want28:25to spread fake news safety here next to28:27common pizza that’s an obvious thing to28:29think about and for people who want to28:32organize radical political movements to28:37actually have a big voice in our28:39politics so to me it’s these free causes28:41coming together but help to explain not28:45to the rise of Donald Trump and the rise28:46of similar for Italian populist in so28:48many different parts of the world28:50how do people want to defend liberal28:54democracy not end up looking to lots of28:58others like they are simply defending an29:01establishment in the status quo and I29:04thought about this a lot during the say29:07German elections where I’m my politics29:11our Social Democratic but I kind of29:13found myself wanting Merkel to do29:15reasonably well I didn’t want her to29:17fall and in a sense there could be29:19nothing more status quo then rooting for29:22Merkel in Germany and that I think that29:26there’s a real danger here that those of29:31us who want to push back against the29:34dangers of democracy end up looking like29:37protectors of the establishment and the29:39ruling class how do you respond to that29:42what’s your sort of strategy and29:44approach on that today I absolutely29:47agree missus this is crucial so a 201629:50election in my mind the United States29:52was a contest between a moderate29:55politics of a status quo and an Axman29:57politics of change well it turns out30:00that when those are the rules of30:01engagement the extremist parties of30:03change can win not necessarily because30:06most Americans are extremists30:10because they really won some promise of30:13a country that changes that actually30:15delivers more for them and so what we30:18need to do among people who are more30:21politically moderate is to offer the30:24vision of the real politics of change to30:27show how without embracing a populist30:29mind frame how without sacrificing the30:33rights of minorities sacrificing30:34varieties of immigrants and so on we can30:36actually promise people a real vision of30:39of a better society and to me the great30:42failings of Angela Merkel and the grand30:45coalition that is now in power again in30:46Germany is that they’re not using the30:49big parliamentary majority they had and30:51still to some degree have in order to do30:54that but they aren’t actually saying hey30:56we are in favor of globalization and30:59free trade and all of those good things31:02but we’re really going to fight to make31:04sure that rich individuals actually pay31:06the tax in Germany or the United States31:07but corporations actually pay a fair31:10amount of tax in these countries that we31:14make it much easier for productivity to31:18grow in our countries because that’s one31:20of the main drivers of middle-class31:22incomes by investing a ton more money in31:25education that we are actually making31:30sure that people don’t have to keep31:34spending more and more money on the most31:36essential goods from housing to31:39education to health care now in all of31:41these countries visa huge problems and31:43the establishment parties aren’t31:45actually fighting for that we’re not31:47actually saying here are some ways to31:50radically change the way we run things31:53the way that we have public policy in31:55order to ensure that we have a better31:58distribution of against from32:00globalization and by the way much more32:02productivity growth much more growth in32:04incomes as well without thereby you know32:08giving in to the puppets all of these32:09things are possible those ideas out some32:12of them and even particularly32:14far-fetched employing four or five times32:17more people at vis to look after people32:20who are hiding the money in tax havens32:22is a no-brainer32:23it’s really easy to do and it pays for32:25itself tenfold so why aren’t we doing it32:29if I would suspect if Hillary Clinton32:32were here or Martin Schultz of the SPD32:34were here they would both say that’s32:37pretty much what we were suggesting in32:39the campaign and yet no one noticed that32:41that’s what we were suggesting is that32:43would they be right or wrong or half32:45right they’d be half right at best so32:48when you look at the advert compaines I32:50don’t think but they have a radical32:52measures on on any of those things but32:55it’s also a matter of how you actually32:57talk about those things and salvers so Ithink one of the failings to me overHillary Clinton campaign was that itnever actually set out a vision forAmerica it basically said he is a goodfix on this and he’s a good fix on thisand he has a good fix on this and he issomething that I’m giving this could besomething that I’m giving that groupit’s not saying here are the ways inwhich we’re going to make America workfor everybody and make it fair toeverybody and hear the ways in which yessome things are working but there’s alsolots of things but really aren’t workinginstead the message was you know Americais already great I’m gonna disguise thefact that I have two questions to ask byturning my two questions into onequestion with us with the semicolon andthen if people want to start lining upplease feel free I’d like you to talkabout young people because youespecially if you look at the UnitedStates and you acknowledge this in the33:53focus especially if you look at the33:54United States Americans under 30 or33:57Americans under 45 really promise to be34:00the drivers for change in a I think34:04positive direction in our country I’ve34:07told my kids that when my generation is34:09gone you guys will make things fine34:12except I want to be around to see it so34:14there’s a kind of contradiction there34:17the and and yet you have some more more34:21worries about young people more in34:22Europe than here so I’d like you I’d34:26like you to talk about that and then34:29secondly I would like you to talk about34:33sort of in in hopeful terms do youat the response to what you write aboutin the book in Europe or in the UnitedStates and see anything coming togetherthat might actually be successful inpushing back against the war on liberaldemocracy or are you still more in Akosand/or a mood so so starting with withyoung people I mean I think so so lookbut the thing is are quite stark right Imean I’ve alluded into a couple of timesmay as well say my loud so you know youask people how important is it to you tolive in a democracy among olderAmericans born in 1930s 1940s overtwo-thirds say absolutely importantamong Millennials born since 1980 lessthan one-third – when you ask peopleabout whether they think army rule is agood system of government and a lot ofthese figures are in the book twentyyears ago one in 16 Americans saidthat’s a good system of government nowone in sixty and among young at a fluentAmericans is actually going up from sixto 35 percent nearly a six-fold increasethe counter argument against this forpushback when I get is oh but all of thepeople who voted for Donald Trump wereold people so of a politicalmanifestation of this actually is ismuch more hmong older people and youngerpeople now the first answer to that iswhat I’m hearing here from the leftwhich is not true right actually therewas a lot of young people who did votefor Donald Trump among white peopleunder the age of 3048 percent voted for Donald Trump and 43percent for Hillary Clinton which iswhich is a very worrying thing thesecond thing I would say is that DonaldTrump didn’t really try to appeal toyoung people right I’m he’s himself avery you know an old guy and that’s justnot what his campaign was was designedto do now you could easily get forms ofa proton populism where they’re on theright where there’s clearly a quitevibrant young or dried scene and so onor for that matter on on on the left thedoes try to tap into the deep systemicdiscontent with democracythat you see among a lot of young P andthe third point is well go and look atEurope and you see with young people aresome of the strongest supporters ofpopulist movements on both the left andthe right in the French presidentialelections in the first round over 50% ofyoung people over 50 percent of youngpeople voted for Ivor marine lepen thefar-right populist all jean-lucmélenchon the far left populist in Italy37:18you see that not only did nearly 2/3 of37:22your overall Italian electorate go for37:24iowa’s Silvio Berlusconi over far-right37:26league or the the five star movement37:30which has strong connections to Russia37:32and has run by people who believe in37:349/11 was an inside job but the only37:36demographic among which there was less37:39vacays was the oldest people among young37:41people something like 80% verge for his37:43parties so so absolutely this fred is37:46among young people as well as all of you37:49now to a second question of how well are37:51we standing up against this I think37:56that’s roughly three scenarios for37:57what’s going to happen in the next years37:59the United States the first is that38:03Donald Trump does such a terrible job38:06and ends up being repudiated so broadly38:11losses so disastrously in the midterms38:13you know wins one and a half states in38:162020 there’s a real moment of coming38:20together and a real recognition of how38:22dangerous it is for people to to flower38:26most basic rules of our political system38:27and not as a recognition that this38:29particular guy failed but that similar38:32kinds of movements are all dangerous38:34nothing that’s possible but I I’m not38:37holding my breath foot38:39the second scenario is V inverse it is38:43that like Edwin has done in Turkey like38:47Auburn is succeeding in doing and hungry38:49like it looks like the Polish government38:51may be succeeding and doing in Poland38:54Donald Trump actually manages to expand38:56his base to deliver for some of his core38:58constituency to undermine independence39:03titude sly for the pattern of justice39:05and and the FBI to corrupt the process39:10of elections more and more and that he39:12essentially becomes a form of dictator39:15of a course over the next six or eight39:16years now again I think that’s possible39:20but in part because Donald Trump has39:23actually been very incompetent at39:24following the PlayBook of a vote for a39:27town leaders around the world in part39:29because he hasn’t been very good to39:30delivering for his base in part because39:32he’s not very strategic in his attacks39:34on institutions but it’s always obvious39:35but it’s naked self-interest in part39:38because even his rhetoric always seems39:40to be a little bit more about himself39:41and about setting up that essential39:44contra contours putting himself and the39:47people and so on I’m hopeful that’s not39:50going to happen and in part because39:51where’s the great resistance movements39:52of Americans actually heating and taking39:55seriously those people who are once39:57called casandra’s and going out to to40:00resist Donald Trump and all kinds of40:02concrete ways my big fear now when I40:04talk about this in the book is the third40:07scenario what I would call the Roman40:09scenario but which I had in mind the40:11late Roman Republic but given the40:14elections a week ago I guess I’m a owes40:16to be talking about Rome today which is40:18that you have a populist figure like the40:22kuraki in Rome were like Sabha40:23Berlusconi in Italy for that matter that40:26exploits deep discontent of a political40:28system and comes to a political stage40:31crew creates a huge constitutional40:33crisis and after a bunch of years is40:36thrown out of a system again Chimaera’s40:38Krakow’s was killed Silvio Berlusconi40:41ended up resigning in disgrace in 201140:46but because the underlying reasons for40:49this discontent aren’t being tackled40:51because we’re not doing a good enough40:52job of making sure that ordinary people40:54actually get an improvement of a living40:56status because we’re not creating an40:57inclusive patriotism but emphasizes what40:59unites us across racial and religious41:02lines rather than what what divides us41:04um you you have this similar kind of41:07energy coming back six years later like41:11now in Italy ten years later has41:13happened with with Jewish crocuses41:16younger brother and so over the course41:18of perhaps 20 perhaps 40 perhaps 6041:21years you slowly get such an erosion of41:25a political system that you wind up that41:28to me is the biggest fear that this is41:30not a matter of dealing with it in 202041:32of dealing with in 2018 it’s something41:35that we’re gonna be fighting not just41:36for the rest of your lifetime each day41:38but for the rest of the lifetime of a41:40few young people in this crowd as well41:41[Laughter]41:52but we go but that doesn’t mean you can41:54look it up on Google and not buy the41:55book41:58can you introduce yourselves when you41:59ask a question is the mic working yes42:02okay yes I’m Jeremiah reamer this is not42:06a plan DJ asked me to ask a provocative42:09question earlier but but I just thought42:11it up my my question has to do with you42:16have a a term I’m not completely42:19satisfied with to talk about the the42:23opposite of the Democratic populist you42:27call them I think is it undemocratic42:29liberals and I guess my question goes to42:32whether they’re really undemocratic or42:35incapable of making a democratic42:37connection because I actually think a42:38lot of these people want to be42:40democratic but they’re unable to make a42:43kind of a connection to electoral42:45politics and to the kind of successful42:48model where they we’re sort of their42:53expertise their professional knowledge42:56was consulted and valued and42:59big tent party political leaders were43:01able to use that but I think they want43:04to be democratic you know there’s a43:07tendency to view technocrats is just bad43:09but I think there are good Technic rats43:11and bad techno I think Mario Draghi is43:13kind of a good technocratic along with43:15Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke they did43:17some good things so my question to you43:20is and by the way this is related to43:23another observation I made about the43:25Trump reaction to Trump among the most43:28aggrieved people about the Trump43:30election are people who are professional43:34civil servants who feel they have43:36professional expertise it’s not just the43:37fact that they’re cosmopolitan hipsters43:39living in by coastal cities they also43:41feel their professional knowledge useful43:44for government is being completely43:46ignored how can those people how do you43:49think the good technic ratso to speak if43:51you agree with my my term can can remake43:55a connection I mean obviously yeah yeah43:58so yeah go ahead yes 14 being so I think44:08the short answer is very termos and44:11democratic liberal robin anti-democratic44:12liberals so in essence I agree but just44:15just to explain that time a little bit44:17to people who haven’t read the book so44:18one of the arguments I make is that you44:20know we need to think of our pokel44:22system as having these two elements44:23liberal democracy the liberal has44:25nothing to do with liberal and44:26conservative it’s not you know brock44:28obama as george w bush it is a44:31commitment to invent rights to to the44:35rights of minorities to the rule of law44:37to the separation of powers and amah44:39cracy in my mind when becomes actually44:41translating popular views into public44:43policies unless we’re actually managing44:45to make sure that our political system44:46is responsive to what people want it44:49doesn’t seem to me very democratic now44:51what i think is happening in the world44:53is two things on the one side for a long44:56time we’ve had a system of rights44:58without terribly much democracy of a45:00undemocratic liberalism which is to say45:02a system in which yes we do a reasonably45:05good job at protecting individual rights45:07and minority rights and the separation45:10of powers but we’re not doing a great45:12job45:13often shirring that we’re actually45:15translating what people think into45:17policy and that’s the case because of a45:19huge role of money in politics it was a45:21revolving door between lobbyists and45:22legislators yes because of a certain45:27elite class but doesn’t have much45:29circulation of ordinary people but also45:32because a lot of bureaucratic and45:34technical institutions that do do a45:35great job take lots of issues out of45:38democratic contestation so that lots of45:40decisions are made by the Supreme Court45:43by an independent central bank and by45:45international organizations are45:46precluded from politics through trade45:49treaties and you take all of those45:51things together and it’s not surprising45:52when lots of people say no between45:55listening to me right now we need to45:58understand that to understand part of a46:00populist instinct which is the inverse46:02it’s not rise for democracy it’s46:04democracy vaad rights it’s saying we are46:07gonna speak for a majority and actually46:09put forward all of the politically46:11incorrect ideas that people actually46:12like now often unfortunate side is46:15really our popular when you look in46:16Switzerland whoever was a referendum as46:19a result of which the Swiss Constitution46:21now reads I quote there’s freedom of46:24religion in Switzerland the building of46:27minarets is forbidden she doesn’t make46:30much sense that shows that actually a46:33majority of Swiss people did want to46:35restrict the rights of a Muslim minority46:37well now the problem with that is that46:39eventually a liberal democracy rights46:41democracy overrides degenerates into46:44straight for dictatorship because once46:46you’ve taken away separation of powers46:47once you have put your own people in the46:50courts in the electoral commission as46:52this happened in Hungary in the media46:53the position along it has a real chance46:56of getting rid of so you know between47:01those two evils I think I know which one47:02I would pick but in order to deal with47:06the underlying drivers of his populist47:07anger we need to find ways to make our47:10political system more responsive to what47:13people want and even for a lot of47:14technocratic institutions do a great job47:16I think we need to recognize that they47:18have problematic aspects to them well47:22you kind of47:23answer some of the questions I have but47:25let me just make this statement and let47:28you comment the Democratic state has to47:32rein in the forces that are trying to47:34destroy it47:35those are very various like the Romani47:41corrupt press the preventing people from47:44voting not educating them to the point47:48that they vote for the man wants to be47:52dictator if we don’t do that we have to47:56be to watch be watchful canter and we48:00know what happened in Germany what48:03happened in other kinds of each to me48:05they are not becoming democracies they48:08are losing their freedom and and people48:12just let that happen you know and if we48:15don’t we are not alert what is happening48:17why do we believe what we hear in some48:21radio or television station why is that48:24allowed to happen48:25lying everyday to people so one of the48:30things what I think is really important48:31is to actually you know educate people48:33about the values of our political system48:35and how our political system works one48:38of the reasons why there’s more and more48:41information online is because the rise48:43of the Internet and of social media and48:44so on but I think it goes beyond just48:47the existence of Facebook and Twitter48:49things can spread because people don’t48:51trust the government and we don’t trust48:52the government because a we don’t really48:55know how it works because we barely48:56teach civics anymore in high schools48:58right and be because even insofar as we49:02do you know how it works they only see49:04the negative things in our political49:06system this is something that I say that49:10could have it where I teach and my49:11faculty colleagues aren’t too pleased49:12with me for it49:13which is that we need to actually tell49:16people what’s good about our political49:17system as well now that doesn’t mean49:19that we should be uncritical doesn’t49:21mean but we shouldn’t also be upfront49:23about the shortcomings of our political49:25system and ways in which people continue49:28to suffer injustice and discrimination49:30but if we only talk about those things49:32and never say about explain how it what49:36it is but49:37makes our political system and why it is49:38but living related states for all of its49:40problems it’s still a lot better than49:41living in Russia or Iran or China or49:45Venezuela then we shouldn’t be surprised49:48that people are willing to throw all of49:50that away and so I think you know one of49:53the things but we can all do with our49:56[Music]49:58children with our siblings with our50:00parents with if you’re a teacher of your50:02students if you’re a writer a journalist50:04with in your articles is to actually50:08recommit people to those political50:11values from Plato to our startled and50:13from whose thought to the founding50:15fathers all of the great thinkers about50:18self-government knew how crucial it is50:20to transmit our political values from50:22one generation to the next and we might50:24have paid a little bit of lip service to50:25that in the last 30 40 years who stopped50:28taking it seriously and that’s a big50:29problem I’ve been thinking that the last50:3214 months are brought to you by Joni50:33Mitchell you don’t know what you got50:36till it’s gone and could I bring in I50:38could the folks at the store tell me50:41when we should shut down a called a50:43Dogma yah50:45actually I will take two more questions50:47and then was that all we have yeah sorry50:54actually can I amend that if people are50:57briefed let me just take four questions51:00fast all at once and then Yasha can give51:03a very compact answers because he wants51:06to sell books so four quick thank you51:09my name is Don greenhouse from the51:12Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua New51:15York where EJ has lectured a number of51:18times when we invite you all to come and51:21hear some discussions just like this51:23very quickly I can’t remember her name51:26an author recent book called strangers51:30in their own land a hotel and she uses a51:33metaphor so I’d like to you to think51:35about it in terms of micro rather than51:38macro sense of these we’re all lined up51:41back from the pot of gold and we’re all51:44standing quietly in line and our liberal51:47democracy keeps bringing people into51:50the line in front of us the blacks the51:53gays etc etc and this is causing this51:57angst and populism I wondered if you52:00might comment52:01hold that thought thank you sir Stewart52:04Schulz I’ll try to make this really52:06quick and condense it but you’ve52:08identified populism you know there’s52:11lack of agency this lack of Economic52:14Opportunity threat to cultural identity52:16as the major threats of liberal52:17democracy and I can’t speak to the52:20international situation but at least52:21domestically Trump ran on all those52:24things but his actual administration has52:26nothing to do with any of that message52:28it has to do with advancing corporate52:31interests and it’s it seems to me that52:33the the real threat to liberal democracy52:35is not in these issues which are real52:39but in the forces that use those issues52:43to advance agendas that are more52:45dangerous to liberal democracy I mean52:47what’s the role in capital in all of52:49this so it’s clear that Donald Trump is52:53a symptom of fraud or underlying causes52:55as he undermines institutions are we52:58doing a good enough job to deal with the53:01underlying causes or are we just saying53:03he’s undermined this institution there53:05for Donald Trump’s about sorry for the53:10rest yeah my name is avery James I’m a53:15sophomore at American University quick53:17question you mentioned how we need and53:19you actually end up at new york times on53:20this as well this new nationalism this53:22new patriotism I would just ask how is53:24that in any way unique from what Marco53:25Rubio won in 2013 how was that in any53:27way unique from what Jeb Bush who was53:28bankrolled by the Republican Party53:30basically Mitt Romney but he’s fluent in53:32Spanish this time I mean how is that any53:33different from what the people who had53:35the power to make decisions the53:36Republican Party wanted and ended up53:38with what we have I mean that how is it53:40non-unique right yeah that’s question I53:41really have is how does that change the53:43current trend Thanks all right53:46I might need some some reminders but but53:49I’ll try and get through these four53:50questions quickly and then say something53:51inspiring at the end there we go that’s53:53my task so yes so please that’s so so54:02the cutting in line metaphor I think54:04it’s54:04quite powerful and and and and but54:06that’s how a lot of people think about54:07it right that that they’ve been they’re54:10frustrated we’re not getting what we54:12want we’ve been promised a pot of gold54:13they’re still sounding a line for it and54:15now why are the people doing well like54:17for me that precisely explains the54:19lunacy of pretending that cultural54:22factors and economic factors ah it’s54:26either one of y’all this is the way in54:28which it’s connected but if people feel54:30like I’m getting a fair shake and I I’m54:33a lot wealthier than my parents wear and54:35my kids are gonna do better than me I54:36know what that guy over there is doing54:39fine too good for him you know he’s not54:41like me he’s an immigrant or he’s54:42whatever right but but I’m doing fine54:45nice what he’s doing fine too when54:47people start to feel you know what I’ve54:50been taking advantage of all my life and54:51politicians are we delivering for me and54:53my community is falling apart in all54:54kinds of ways and there’s an opioid54:57epidemic and and our incomes are54:58stagnating and because union jobs are55:00gone and now why is that guy over there55:02doing fine it’s easy to scapegoat and55:05blame right and so one of the ways of55:07dealing with hat is to make sure that we55:09actually deliver on the American dream55:11for people in a way that that we55:13promised um on inclusive patriotism I55:17mean I think that there is a deep store55:19of inclusive patriotism in in American55:22political history55:23um I think often people didn’t55:26necessarily act on that so you know in55:28the end though I agree with some what55:30Republicans had perfectly decent metric55:32around it Muslim weren’t willing to55:34actually vote in those ways and and and55:37and ensure that we take those issues on55:39the table through some kind of55:40comprehensive deal where we come to a55:42decision about that I also think that55:45there is a little bit of resistance to55:47it on on parts of left-right so what we55:50have at the moment is a riot politically55:54who says let’s talk about nationalism55:55over time but let’s talk about it in55:58exclusive ways basically the kind of56:00form of white nationalism of which I56:01would argue our current president is56:03guilty but then on the Left I think best56:06instinct but I know quite well because I56:07grew up with it wishes to say hey56:10nationalism can be so destructive and it56:12was so destructive in 20th century why56:15don’t we actually move beyond it56:18leave nationalism behind in the century56:20which is so cruelly shaped and that you56:25know allows us to be Cosmopolitan’s it56:26allows us to not have any strong56:28collective identity whatever that’s one56:30kind of approach the other approach is56:32to say we’re going to celebrate every56:33form of collective identity at the56:35sub-national level and religious group56:38every ethnic group every sexual root and56:40so on but we’re not going to celebrate56:42the nation because a nation is bad and56:45has this very bad history and the other56:47things are under now I agree that we56:49need to defend every group from attack56:52and discrimination that is ongoing but I56:55also think that the nation can actually56:57be a great stew of solidarity but it can56:59be precisely the thing but allows you to57:01see why you should care about somebody57:03who doesn’t have the same skillet57:05doesn’t have skin color doesn’t have the57:06same religion and so on and we’re57:08emphasizing that an inclusive manner is57:10a way to build social solidarity and57:13fight discrimination rather than a way57:15to advance so to meet nationalism as a57:18half domesticated animal and instead of57:20leaving it on its own to be stoked and57:22prodded by the worst kind of people I57:24think though we need to domesticate one57:26nice way of doing that in a political57:28speech and I have many disagreements57:30with him and other things is what Amanda57:33McConnell said in Marseille on the57:35campaign trail he said when looking to57:38his audience I see people from Mali in57:40the Ivory Coast and and Algeria and57:43Italy in Poland who what do I see I see57:46the people of Marseille what do I see I57:48see the people of France look here57:50ladies and gentlemen of horn as you know57:51the far-right party of my underpin this57:54is what it looks like to be proud to be57:56French that to me is a nationalism that57:58actually makes sense and and having58:00parts of right could fight for it most58:02strongly living parts of a life could58:03also fight for it more strongly there’s58:06two questions but I’m missing here58:11and one one alright so um okay so the58:20question about corporation look I mean I58:21think that58:24liberal democracy works when democracy58:29in capitalism and balance I don’t think58:31the answer is to abolish capitalism58:33because there is no democratic country58:36but it has ever existed on the face of58:38the earth without capitalism and while I58:41get right-wing critiques of58:43globalization because we standard of58:45living of steel workers in Michigan but58:48he hasn’t improved that much over the58:49last thirty years and most because of58:50our political choices Robin makes58:52globalization but at least I get it I58:53don’t really understand certain forms of58:56left-wing critique of globalization58:58because if you actually say that you59:00care about the well-being of poor people59:02in the world and you look at the fact59:04for two billion people have been lifted59:06out of dire poverty in India and China59:07over the course of the last twenty or59:10thirty years people didn’t have59:11electricity you didn’t have food to eat59:13we didn’t have medication who now leads59:16middle-class lives I think we need to59:19recognize what all some positively power59:21it has but we need to also make sure59:24that we actually use those fruits in59:27order to deliver for ordinary people59:30now some kindness have done much better59:32than this than other countries and it’s59:34not because the more or less capitalists59:35it’s because we’ve pursued policies but59:37I actually directed to helping ordinary59:40people and that’s in part because money59:43had much less of a hold on their59:45politics when it does in our culture so59:47this is not rocket science it’s solvable59:49but we need to fight to solve it it’s59:52going to be hard to solve it59:56I’m gonna end with you know I’m60:00sometimes told that when I talk or you60:05know when people read my articles but it60:06can be a little depressing so so thanks60:10for coming out to get depressed on a60:12Sunday afternoon with lovely sunny60:14weather but but I actually genuinely60:16think and I think your book60:19One Nation are trumped prints without60:20really beautifully as well EJ but this60:22is a moment to be inspired the spine60:25will be ugly this now apologies when I60:27grew up politically when I came away60:29pull it came of age politically it60:32seemed like what we would do wouldn’t60:33matter that much because yes there’s60:36some policies were better and some60:37policies there were worse or some60:39ongoing discrimination and injustice but60:41in the end we sort of knew what the60:43world was gonna look like 30 or 35 years60:45from now right now we don’t know that60:48and it’s up to how we act to ensure how60:52that’s going to look so yes that’s scary60:54and yes it’s easy to get depressed by60:56that but it’s also easy to get inspired60:58by that because it means where we can60:59actually act um the best picture image61:03for this in my mind comes from our61:04mizar’s61:05who says has a huge fire burning and61:08each of us only has a little glass of61:10water in the hand and and it can seem61:13hopeless if I go to the water and I dump61:16my little glass of water on it on the61:17fire that’s not going to change anything61:19the fire is far too big well but thanks61:22for coming out everybody there’s a lot61:23of people in this room and if each of us61:26takes our glass of water and I’m set on61:28fire then together we might just be able61:29to extinguish it now the way to do that61:32is to fight for real change in our61:35system not just to defeat Donald Trump61:36it’s to actually make sure that our61:39political system delivers forward many61:40people again is to make sure that people61:41see what’s valuable in our political61:43system again and if you agree with some61:45of my descriptions and diagnosis today61:48you’ll have an idea of what you can go61:50and do at home if you disagree when you61:52have your own ideas but but the61:55important thing is that unlike people in61:58Turkey and like people in Russia and62:00like people in Venezuela we still have a62:02freedom to go and fight and organize and62:04mobilize politically and argue and so I62:07think it’s our duty to do that62:09Inuyasha for Congress pack will be62:12collecting signatures up here I want to62:21read just the last words of the book62:24with what Yasha said he said nobody can62:27promise us a happy end but those of us62:29who truly care about our values and our62:31institutions are determined to fight for62:34our convictions without regard for the62:37consequences though the fruits of our62:39labor may remain uncertain we will do62:41what we can to save liberal democracy62:44thank you all for coming out and yes we62:46will sign the bus62:58you
Dare We Dream of the End of the G.O.P.?
In a new book, the pollster Stanley Greenberg predicts a blue tidal wave in 2020.
Toward the end of his new book, “R.I.P. G.O.P.,” the renowned Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg makes a thrilling prediction, delivered with the certainty of prophecy. “The year 2020 will produce a second blue wave on at least the scale of the first in 2018 and finally will crash and shatter the Republican Party that was consumed by the ill-begotten battle to stop the New America from governing,” he writes.
It sounds almost messianic: the Republican Party, that foul agglomeration of bigotry and avarice that has turned American politics into a dystopian farce, not just defeated but destroyed. The inexorable force of demography bringing us a new, enlightened political dispensation. Greenberg foresees “the death of the Republican Party as we’ve known it,” and a Democratic Party “liberated from the nation’s suffocating polarization to use government to advance the public good.” I’d like to believe it, and maybe you would too. But should we?
This is not the first time that experts have predicted the inevitable triumph of progressive politics. Seventeen years ago, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” which argued that the country was on the cusp of a liberal political realignment driven by growing diversity, urbanization and gender equality. In sheer numerical terms they were right; between then and now the Republican Party won the presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. But Republicans still have more power than Democrats, and in 2017, Judis disavowed his book’s thesis, arguing that only populist economics could deliver Democratic victories.
As it happens, Greenberg, who became famous as Bill Clinton’s pollster in 1992 and consulted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, told me he used to “shudder” at the “Emerging Democratic Majority” analysis. “I’m used to campaigns in which you impact what’s going to happen,” he said. “The idea that it’s just going to happen because of trends is dangerous. And it was dangerous with Hillary.”
There’s a fascinating tension in “R.I.P. G.O.P.” Greenberg is scathing about the failures of the Hillary Clinton campaign, accusing it of “malpractice.” Yet he believes that at least some of the political assumptions that were mistaken in 2016 will be sound in 2020.
Credit Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images Greenberg suggests that Clinton erred by focusing too much on multiculturalism at the expense of class, and by trying to discredit Donald Trump as a vulgarian rather than a plutocrat. As Clinton wrote in “What Happened,” her post mortem of her shattering loss, Greenberg “thought my campaign was too upbeat on the economy, too liberal on immigration, and not vocal enough about trade.”
Yet going into 2020, Greenberg believes that what he calls the “rising American electorate” — including millennials, people of color and single women — will ensure Democratic victory, almost regardless of whom the party nominates. “We’re dealing with demographic and cultural trends, but we’re also dealing with people that are organizing and talking to one and another and becoming much more conscious of their values,” he said.
In his polling and focus groups, he’s seeing that the reaction to Trump is changing people. “The Trump presidency so invaded the public’s consciousness that it was hard to talk to previously disengaged and unregistered unmarried women, people of color and millennials without them going right to Trump,” he writes. A few months after the election, he realized he could no longer put Clinton and Trump voters in focus groups together because indignant Clinton voters, particularly women, so dominated the conversations. “This turned out to be an unintended test of the strength of their views and resolve to resist,” he wrote.
That resolve to resist has led many voters to define their own beliefs in opposition to Trump’s. On immigration, for example, “every Trump outrage increased the proportion of Americans who said, ‘We are an immigrant country,’” writes Greenberg. Indeed, according to recent Pew data, 62 percent of Americans say that immigrants strengthen the country, while 28 percent, a near record low, see them as a burden.
Yet rather than modulating their anti-immigrant politics in response, Republicans have little choice but to double down, because so many of their voters are driven by nativism. In this way, Greenberg sees an omen for the Republican Party in California. It’s hard to remember now, but the state was once the heartland of conservatism, nurturing the political careers of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. From 1968 to 1988, it voted Republican in every presidential election, and regularly elected Republican governors.
But in 1994, California Republicans, fearful of changing demography, campaigned for Proposition 187, a ballot initiative meant to make life miserable for undocumented immigrants. It won — though courts blocked its implementation — but it also turned expanding constituencies in California against Republicans. Today the party has been reduced to an irrelevant rump faction in state politics.
The specter of California haunts the modern right; many conservatives see it as a portent of what demographic change will do to Republican power nationally. But California can just as easily be seen as a sign of how a political party can drive itself to ruin by making a cruel, doomed stand against the coming generation. If Greenberg is right, national Republicans, fearful of going the way of those in California, may have ensured precisely that fate.
But is he right? Unlike in California, you can’t win power in the United States just by getting the most votes. The political analyst David Wasserman has argued that Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as five million and still prevail in the Electoral College. Greenberg, however, is convinced that the 2018 midterms prove that mass turnout can overcome the Democrats’ structural disadvantages. “Every piece of data I have, the trends have moved to be more Democratic since 2018,” he said.
His confidence will not be enough to lessen the insomnia that has plagued me since the cursed night when Trump was elected. But his book should be a corrective to the media’s overweening focus on the mulish devotion of Trump voters. Trump hatred is a much more potent force in this country than Trump love. There is one way, and one way only, that Trump may surpass Barack Obama. Though Obama was a community organizer, Trump could turn out to be much better at mobilizing progressives.