Yascha Mounk, “The People vs. Democracy” (w/ E.J. Dionne)

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I am very excited to welcome yasha monk
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and EJ Dionne back to politics and pros
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Yasha monk is here to talk about his new
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book the People vs democracy why our
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freedom is in danger and how to save it
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as the cold war drew to a close in 1989
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Francis Fukuyama’s the end of history
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posited that liberal democracy had won
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and would be the final ideological forum
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but almost 30 years later we see that
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this is not in fact the case
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drawing on recent examples from the US
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and Europe monk demonstrates how as
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liberalism and democracy come apart they
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tend towards extremes of either an
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illiberal democracy under the sway of
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populist demagogues or an undemocratic
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liberalism run by two technocratic
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elites Yasha Monk is the author of the
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age of responsibility and is a lecturer
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Harvard as well as a senior fellow in
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the political reform program at new
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America
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he is joined today in conversation by EJ
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Dionne
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a Washington Post columnist and
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co-author of one nation after Trump
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which we also have many copies of here
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at the store so Melissa please give a
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warm welcome to Yoshi McKinney javion
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Thank You Isaac I asked so I wouldn’t
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have to so that was very kind of him
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Thanks thank you all for coming and
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thanks to a lot of old friends I see
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here today I just want to say politics
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and prose arranges some of the very best
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conversations on the crisis facing
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democracy and on public problems
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generally and I think if we could locate
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a politics in Pro and pros in every
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community in the United States and
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across the democracies we wouldn’t have
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a yahoo in the pad to write this book
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I’m also really happy to be here because
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like many of you I have become a Yasha
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fan over the last several years I admire
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his sharp mind and warm heart and both
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of them are
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and he comes at his concern for a
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liberal democracy and his commitment to
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a greater degree of social justice from
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both personal experience and deep and
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serious philosophical reflection that
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earlier book is is really good too if
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they have it around here today he’ll
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sign them both I am sure if you care to
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buy one I just what I want to do what
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we’re going to do today is have a
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conversation up here he and I have been
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talking about this book for a while
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indeed he was kind enough to visit with
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my students up at Harvard where I taught
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last semester and gave them an advance
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look at some of the chapters of the book
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and we had a wonderful conversation
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there and he and I have had friendly
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discussions including a couple of
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arguments that I want to service here
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friend very friendly arguments won over
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populism and the other over the role of
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young people in the future and so we’re
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going to talk about that but first I
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want y’all should I have a chance to
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introduce the book I am going to read
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every author should have a paragraph
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like this in the book that very neatly
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summarizes the core argument in this
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case of the first half of what the
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problems are so I’m going to read this
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and then I’m going to ask Yasha to tell
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you a bit about himself because as I say
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his commitment on these issues comes
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from his own background he became an
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American citizen last year correct we
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should welcome Yasha with a round of
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applause and we are very lucky to have
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him and I want him to talk about sort of
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his background a bit and how he came to
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write this book then we will get to some
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of the issues but first my dramatic
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reading once upon a time liberal
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democracies could assure their citizens
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of a very rapid increase in their living
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standards now they no longer can
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once-upon-a-time political elites
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control the most important means of
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communication and could effectively
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exclude radical views from the public
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sphere
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now political Outsiders can spread lies
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and hatred with abandon and once upon a
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time the homogeneity of their citizens
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or at least a see for a shil hierarchy
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was a big part
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of what held liberal democracies
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together now citizens have to learn how
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to live in a much more equal and diverse
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democracy
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welcome Yasha and please tell folks a
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bit about yourself and how you came to
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write this book like at what moment
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after how many hours after either breaks
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it or Trump’s election did you decide
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well well I think what sort of
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interesting surprising is what I started
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to write this book before I’ve a brexit
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Oh Trump happened um other people
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weren’t so interested in me writing the
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book at the time because they kind of
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thought I was a little bit of a weird
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crank when I started to to argue three
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four years ago
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there’s real warning sign for our
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democracies not assume United States but
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in big parts of Europe as well
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people always accuse me of being a
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Cassandra um and I wanted to respond to
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I didn’t because I realized oh just give
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me you know dig me even deep into the
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hole Cassandra was right damn it that’s
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the whole point of Cassandra that’s his
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next book that’s my Cassandra was right
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dammit exclamation mark there uh you
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know I mean why is it that our sort of
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more life to those dangers then when
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some other people I think a mix of a
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personal story and some academic
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interest of mine I mean so you know
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personally my family has had a bad habit
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of being in the wrong place at the wrong
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time for these free generations so I’ve
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seen you know and my great grandparents
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my grandparents my parents how you know
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the political situation ended up being
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quite differently from what they
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expected and how they affect that
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affected their own lives so I think you
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know to me the idea that political
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systems can turn and then that can have
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quite tragic consequences in a very
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personal way is is concrete rather than
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abstract and that I think probably
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anticipating a little bit what part of
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our conversation might be later
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separates me from many other people my
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generation who grew up in United States
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or other people who grew up in big parts
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of Europe the other thing is where as an
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academic I started to think about how
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people actually feel about our political
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system now what people have known for a
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long time is that approval ratings for
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Congress and for particular politicians
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keep getting lower that participation
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and former politics gets lower and also
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some united states but also in Europe
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that people the approval ratings for for
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Congress of Supreme Court for presidency
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have been sinking but forty years ago
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people trusted politicians and now we
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don’t anymore and majority so that was
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all clear it with a colleague of mine of
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metaphor we started to look at how do
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people actually feel about a political
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system itself so do they say it’s
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important to him to live in a democracy
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are they open to a foreign alternatives
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to democracy and we started to see that
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those attitudes had started to shift as
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well but actually fewer young people now
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say it’s really important to him to live
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in a democracy but the number of people
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who say I want a strongman leader who
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doesn’t have to bubble of parliament or
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elections or even I think army rule is a
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good system of government has gone up
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significant and so you know when we saw
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that a few years before Trump was
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elected we really started to worry about
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what’s going on when you look back at
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we’re opinion was in a lot of the West
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after the fall of the Berlin Wall and
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loose in his wonderful book has a
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wonderful description of journeying to
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the wall very excited with a bunch of
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students and there was a feeling that
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aha liberal democracy has finally
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triumphed a lot of these problems have
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disappeared and there is nothing but
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success on the horizon what happened
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what happened and why were these
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predictions so wall what were people
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missing in 1989 or did developments
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afterward change yeah so the obvious way
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to frame this is around Francis
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Fukuyama’s argument the end of history
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which said that for the first time in
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living memory there was no real
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ideological competitor to liberal
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democracy in the 19th century that been
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absolute monarchy but some degree be in
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favor Christie but 20th century was
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fascism and communism all of those had
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failed and in 1989 though Fukuyama have
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a claim for democracy was everywhere
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that there would no longer be any
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historical event so it’s a miss reading
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what he was saying he said
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yes sir he was saying look there’s no
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real system that people would rather
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live in people are deeply committed to
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liberal democracy of the system and so
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we don’t really have to worry about its
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persistence now even some people who are
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skeptical of Fukuyama actually bought
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that cool faeces for big parts of North
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America and Western Europe so political
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scientists who would you know were very
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empirical and counting you know numbers
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and playing around and Stata and are
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they
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they might afford over the end of
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history you know what a silly phrase but
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they actually had the same belief so
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there’s a famous article by someone
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called Adam Przewalski’s in the 90s who
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said look at all of the democracies that
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have over 15,000 dollars GDP per capita
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but have had at least two changes of
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government for free and fair elections
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well you know what all of those places
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are safe you no longer have to worry
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about the persistence of a democratic
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system in those countries
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and those reliant on the assumption that
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democracy had become consolidated which
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is a phrase in literature which would
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mean when was the only game in town and
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that’s precisely what we set out to test
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and what we described what I described
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with some degree in this book which is
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is it still true but everybody gives us
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importance to democracy is it still true
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that people reject versus alternatives
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to moxie out of hand and most
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importantly are there any politicians
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and political movements that will
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actually have real power in the system
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and reject the most basic rules and
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norms of liberal
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office for a long time that’s no longer
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the case that populace had been rising
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not just here and there and American
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primaries where they sort of shut up for
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a little moment and when crashed again I
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think of all of the extreme candidates
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but briefly led the pack and Republican
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primary fields not just in 2016 but in
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2012 and 2008 and so on so forth but you
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also saw a very steady rise of populism
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in Europe for a long time in a paper
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with some news here today Martin Hammond
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we show that the share of populist
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parties in Europe has increased from
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about 8 percent in mere 2000 to 25
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percent more reason and so the whole
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world on which we based the conviction
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but we don’t have to worry about
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democracy anymore after 1989 went far
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beyond and I think it’s now been
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challenged in ways would go far beyond
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Donald Trump but a few weeks back a
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Brahmin and was here to talk about his
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book to fight against the age he thinks
it’s actually important that we call
this new right-wing nationalism by its
name and he believes that aim is fascism
do you agree with that or or not and how
do you analyze what is the nature of
this ideology
I disagree for up on this and and
there’s a number of reasons for that
I’m the first is that
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it’s really easy to think of the
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collapse of democracy as requiring
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something like what happened in Germany
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in the nineteen thirties
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right so we’re only going to lose
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democracy if lots of people give a
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Hitler salute you know by riebeck ugly
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black boots and ran from the center of
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town of tortures right and some of that
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happens some of that exists and when you
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look at Charlottesville there’s
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obviously people who quite openly are
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fascists in our country today but you
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know what despite all of horribleness of
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what happened in Charlottesville that
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was the only danger we faced I wouldn’t
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be too concerned I wouldn’t be writing
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this me what you see fo in countries
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from Russia to to Turkey and countries
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today like Poland and Hungary is there
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as many other ways in which democracy
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can come under real attack and those are
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a lot much more subtle it’s not people
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who say I’m a fascist I want to get rid
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of democracy it’s people who say you
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know what you’ve been disempowered
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people have taken a real power away from
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you and I’m the only real Democrat I
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alone actually represent the people
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I am your voice as Donald Trump said in
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the Republican National Convention so
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give me your votes what I can return
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power to the people and that I think is
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the real danger to democracy at the
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moment so calling that fascist is makes
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us lazy because we think well there’s
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nobody in in black boots and torches in
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the streets so why should we worry and I
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think it makes it more difficult for us
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to understand the specific nature of
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populism now here we have a disagreement
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as perhaps some of you saw so AJ is
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excellent column and Washington Post I’m
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about a week ago in which he basically
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says there’s good forms of populism
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now you know the word populism is a
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little confusing um and and you know
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there are some people who have
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historically been quote populist who has
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sometimes called populist now who I
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think can contribute a certain
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corrective to the system but the way
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that I describe populism in this book
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and the way that I can make sense of it
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I don’t think there is such a good
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fingers good and the reason the
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following word is a populist at heart
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it’s not somebody who says the certain
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things wrong with our politicians and
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some of them are corrupt and some of my
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self-serving and it’s really important
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that we win in order to make through
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that’s a normal part of Porter’s those
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Barack Obama as much as anybody else
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right talk about a rigged system and so
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on there’s nothing dangerous about that
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but what populist s– have uniquely is
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that they say only I truly represent the
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people the only reason why we have any
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real political problems at the moment is
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the politicians are corrupt and
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self-serving and I can fix all of that
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because I stand for ordinary people I
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manage to channel their wisdom and their
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views and this means with anybody who
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opposes me who disagrees with me is by
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definition illegitimate so give me all
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of the power and if the courts are going
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to stand up to that because what I’m
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doing is unconstitutional then they are
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being an American
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right if the media is criticizing me
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then they’re enemies of the people if
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your position is trying to use its
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institutional prerogatives to limit how
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much I can do then they are traitors and
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this is true of populist in different
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countries and of different stripes
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Donald Trump and recive erawan and
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Google Shabbos don’t have much in common
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for example Donald Trump doesn’t seem to
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be overly fond of Muslims whereas
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receipe Erawan doesn’t seem to be overly
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fond of anybody who’s not a Muslim but
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they share this trait they share the
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trait of saying the only reasons why we
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have political problems as bad feelings
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are corrupt
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I represent ordinary people and I can
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solve it but to do that you have to give
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me all of the power because anybody who
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disagrees with me is a traitor is
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legitimate and that kind of populism
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will always be a danger to the basic
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principles of democracy and that’s why I
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think is always going to be dangerous I
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don’t want to pursue this too far
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because I want yeah should I have a
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chance to present the rest of his book
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but just for fun I want to just take
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this one one time which is in a way is
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your argument about populism in
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contradiction to the argument about
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fascism because what Rob’s argument is
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is you don’t have to wear Jack boots are
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seeing the horse vessel song to be a
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fascist and that in fact the danger may
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be hidden from us because people are
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doing it in the name of democracy and
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after all the word VOC that Hitler
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invoked was the people and so there is
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so I just want to pursue that and then
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on the populist side I I would basically
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assert and we that this why we probably
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shouldn’t go too long on this populism
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is an essentially contested concept and
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I think that there are those who see
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populist more in ameri in the terms of
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our old American populist movement which
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was largely a democratizing movement and
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I think there’s actually a difference
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across the oceans on this as well which
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is I think Europeans because of the
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nature of the right-wing populism you
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face are more likely to see populism as
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anti-democratic so just take that and
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then I want to just pursue a couple
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arguments in the book and I want to let
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this learn an audience participate as
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well
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so look like certainly certain
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similarities between some forms of
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populism in some forms of fascism but
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but very essential differences as well
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one of them is how openly hostile
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fascism is to democracy which yes the
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fact but I agree the problems covertly
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hostile to to democracy but but fascism
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has always been openly hostile and
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that’s an important thing to understand
17:30
and so if we think is vis like fascism
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we’re gonna say well Donald Trump is not
17:34
overtly hostile to democracy so why does
17:37
anybody worry we all Toronto firms as
17:39
some people have charge right and that’s
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that’s a real mistake that really makes
17:42
it more difficult for us to understand
17:43
there’s also crucial difference in the
17:45
kind of forms of political regime that
17:48
those countries tend to Institute so
17:51
there was an important distinction
17:52
between dictatorships and totalitarian
17:57
regimes right most fascist systems tend
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to be totalitarian regimes which is to
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say that every sphere of politics on
18:06
society becomes deeply imbued with
18:10
ideological fervor you cannot have a
18:13
chess club that isn’t organized along
18:16
fascist lines right and that is the same
18:18
in communist um now I think populist
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don’t tend to erect regimes like that
18:23
when you think of Turkey when you think
18:25
of Russia there are places where as long
18:28
as you don’t criticize the government as
18:30
long as you don’t pose a threat to the
18:33
dictator you get to do whatever you want
18:35
and so again I think populism and
18:37
fascism actually erect systems that are
18:40
very different as well
18:41
now look I agree with you this concept
18:43
of essentially contests that is
18:45
important right there’s no one natural
18:47
way of defining democracy there’s no one
18:49
natural way of defining populism in a
18:52
way it is a question of which definition
18:55
allows us to understand what’s going on
18:58
in the world the best at the moment and
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what I would say is that for I
19:03
understand was different kinds of
19:04
movement called populist in American
19:06
history I don’t think that that is very
19:09
useful as a term at the moment because
19:11
what we need to understand is why is all
19:13
of this stuff happening around the world
19:15
why do you see erawan and Turkey why do
19:17
you see Victor Arbonne in Hungary why do
19:19
you see marine lepen in France why do
19:21
you see Donald Trump in the United
19:22
States all of the same
19:23
and the best way of making sense of that
19:26
I think is to use my understanding and
19:28
be understanding some of the economic
19:29
literature on populism because that
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precisely brings out with very important
19:34
commonalities between people who also
19:36
have some important differences to each
19:37
other let’s go through some of the core
19:41
arguments of the book you talk and and
19:44
let’s sort of start with economics
19:48
versus immigration and we’ve talked
19:50
about this before one of the hardest
19:51
things I think to sort through is
19:54
whether this surge was caused by a
19:57
globalized economy economic distress the
20:01
decline of upward mobility particularly
20:03
here in the US or whether the driving
20:07
force even more than economics was a
20:10
fear of widespread immigration of
20:12
backlash against widespread immigration
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on the side of the immigration the
20:17
primacy of immigration would be the idea
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that some of these movements have shown
20:22
up in places like the Netherlands which
20:25
have fairly well distributed economic
20:27
growth relative to other countries but
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I’d like you to sort of parse economics
20:35
versus immigration and maybe give people
20:38
a sense of some of what you talk about
20:40
as solutions to these dilemmas so first
20:44
of all in trying to understand why is
20:46
all of this happening at the moment I
20:48
took inspiration from a story that at
20:50
first has nothing to do with populism or
20:52
Donald Trump so it’s a nice little
20:53
respite told by Bertrand Russell he said
20:57
well once upon a time there was a
21:00
chicken on a farm and it led a very nice
21:03
life it was a kind of chicken we’d all
21:04
like to eat for dinner which is to say
21:06
that you know it’s got to run around
21:07
freely and do whatever it wanted um and
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and but all the other animals on the
21:14
farm kept warning it and said be careful
21:16
one day the farmer is gonna come and
21:20
kill you I’m a chicken said what are you
21:22
talking about that farmers be nice to me
21:24
all of my life he’s always fed me and
21:27
muttered some encouraging words
21:28
why would things suddenly be so
21:30
different well Russell and his nice wit
21:33
says that eventually of course but
21:35
chicken
21:36
did learn but he was wrong the the
21:38
farmer came to ring with chicken snack
21:41
showing that more sophisticated views as
21:44
the uniformity of causation would have
21:45
been to a chicken’s benefit what does he
21:48
mean by that right while the most
21:50
sophisticated views of uniformity of
21:52
causation what what he meant is quite
21:53
simple that scope conditions on how the
21:55
social world works right as long as the
21:58
chicken was too thin to be taken to a
21:59
market the farmer had an incentive to
22:01
keep feeding it once it was big enough
22:03
to fetch a decent price how he behaved
22:07
was going to change now why is it that
22:10
liberal democracy has been incredibly
22:11
stable around the world for the last 50
22:13
or 60 years and now we start to see it
22:15
seemingly being less and less stable
22:17
well let’s look at the scope conditions
22:19
what was truthful is past 50 60 years
22:22
there is no longer true and it seems to
22:24
me would best three big things there and
22:26
we’re sometimes put in competition with
22:27
each other but all of the interesting
22:29
phenomena in human history have always
22:31
had more than one cause the world is not
22:33
mono causal right so the first is living
22:38
standards in the United States from 1945
22:40
to 1960 the living standards of the
22:43
average American doubled from 1960 to
22:46
1985 we doubled again since 1985 they’ve
22:50
been stagnant now that makes a real
22:53
difference about how people perceive
22:55
politics they used to say well you know
22:58
what um I don’t love politicians you
23:01
know his belt with his Washington DC
23:03
stuff you know it’s a little weird but
23:05
in the end they seem to be delivering
23:07
for me right they seem to be sticking to
23:09
their end of a deal so let’s give him
23:11
the benefit of a doubt now people are
23:14
saying I’m allowed to swear in this
23:17
bookstore yeah that’s where one since he
23:19
was a shot off my microphone um now
23:21
people are saying you know what I’ve
23:23
worked really hard all of my life I
23:24
don’t have much to show for it I think
23:26
my kids are gonna be worse off than me
23:27
let’s throw some against who won’t
23:29
see what sticks how bad can things get
23:30
how mile that is I know our country if
23:36
it weren’t for Trump would have gotten a
23:38
better reaction and now look the
23:41
counter-argument against this and this
23:43
has been reserved researched a lot in
23:45
the in the media and so on is to say oh
23:48
but it’s not necessarily true
23:50
people who voted for their own Trump
23:52
were much poorer than those who voted
23:53
for Hillary Clinton grant it but it’s a
23:56
little bit more complicated than that
23:58
that’s it’s really bad test of whether
24:00
the economic causes matter what’s
24:02
interesting is that not just in the
24:03
United States but in many parts in many
24:06
countries publicity doing very well
24:07
around the world you see a very clear
24:09
distinction between urban and
24:13
economically dynamic parts of a country
24:16
and others so in the United States
24:18
Donald Trump won over two-thirds of
24:20
American counties but something like
24:22
one-third of America’s GDP he did much
24:25
better in parts of a country where
24:28
there’s very little recent investment
24:29
where people are less educated even
24:32
where the share of jobs were the subject
24:34
to automation in the coming decades is
24:37
much higher because people there realize
24:40
I might still be doing fine but I have a
24:43
lot to fear from the future now my
24:47
second course has to do with with
24:50
culture and ethnicity and immigration
24:51
this is really stark in Europe where
24:54
most countries became stable democracies
24:57
at a time when there were more
24:59
homogeneous than it previous parts of
25:03
the history because of a tragic effects
25:04
of World War two and in which they had a
25:08
clear mono-ethnic monocultural
25:10
conception of who Rudy blocks when you
25:12
asked a German where I grew up an
25:15
Italian and a Swede in 1960 hue really
25:19
belongs to the country it would have
25:20
been obvious that it’s somebody who’s
25:21
descended genetically from the same set
25:24
of people but it certainly isn’t
25:25
somebody who’s brown or black somebody
25:27
who’s Muslim or Hindu now thankfully
25:30
that started to change over the last 50
25:32
or 60 years there has been a lot of
25:34
immigration and people have actually
25:36
started to adapt more liberal and
25:38
understandings of citizenship and of
25:40
belonging there’s also a strong reaction
25:43
against that and for either and for
25:45
Mirman condone that reaction and none of
25:48
us should I think is actually easy to
25:50
understand why that would be the case if
25:52
you say hey I may not be the richest guy
25:56
I may not have the best education you
25:58
know I may not have a most social
26:01
respect but at least I’m better than red
26:03
immigrant over there
26:04
right at least I have a high social
26:05
status with that well it now thankfully
26:07
has politicians who are immigrants or
26:10
children of immigrants you might go to
26:11
your to your work and your boss might be
26:14
an immigrant well the fact that some
26:16
people feel like they’ve lost something
26:18
there that some social standing has been
26:20
taken away actually isn’t too surprising
26:23
now the United States is both similar
26:25
and different it’s different because
26:27
we’ve always been a multi-ethnic society
26:29
there’s always been many different
26:30
ethnicities living here but it’s similar
26:33
in rep has always been a very strict
26:35
racial hierarchy which gave one set of
26:37
people big advantages and privileges
26:39
over others now again I think we would
26:41
do well to remember though we’ve
26:43
actually come a very long way in
26:44
overcoming that despite the obvious
26:47
ongoing injustice in our country it is a
26:50
much better place for minorities to live
26:52
than 20 or 40 or 60 years ago and a lot
26:56
of people have started to embrace the
26:59
idea of an equal multi-ethnic Society
27:01
but again there’s a lot of people have
27:03
something to lose from that and who are
27:04
rebelling against bet again I don’t
27:06
condone that but it shouldn’t surprise
27:07
us that that is going on alright so if
27:11
you have the anger and the basic
27:16
distrust of our politics because people
27:18
are feeling like my life is not getting
27:20
any better I’m afraid of a future
27:22
economically if that often takes a
27:24
cultural form of a backlash against
27:26
immigration a backlash against racial
27:27
equality when you add the third
27:30
ingredient social media
27:32
which makes it so much easier for people
27:35
to challenge a media consensus to
27:39
challenge the gatekeepers who used to
27:42
say what can be a part of our political
27:44
discourse and what can’t now
27:47
in some ways that’s a good thing it’s a
27:49
good thing in dictatorships because we
27:50
Democratic opposition now has a much
27:52
easier time telling a telling a
27:57
population with truth about corruption
27:59
about repression and so on it can be a
28:02
good thing in our country as well if you
28:04
think about we meet the V men’s platform
28:06
that the students at Parkland High in
28:09
Florida immediately gained after the
28:11
horrible mass shooting there and their
28:13
ability to make her voice is hurt and
28:15
engage engage the public in a push for
28:17
change on gun control but at the same
28:21
time it also obviously makes it easier
28:22
for hateful voices for people who want
28:25
to spread fake news safety here next to
28:27
common pizza that’s an obvious thing to
28:29
think about and for people who want to
28:32
organize radical political movements to
28:37
actually have a big voice in our
28:39
politics so to me it’s these free causes
28:41
coming together but help to explain not
28:45
to the rise of Donald Trump and the rise
28:46
of similar for Italian populist in so
28:48
many different parts of the world
28:50
how do people want to defend liberal
28:54
democracy not end up looking to lots of
28:58
others like they are simply defending an
29:01
establishment in the status quo and I
29:04
thought about this a lot during the say
29:07
German elections where I’m my politics
29:11
our Social Democratic but I kind of
29:13
found myself wanting Merkel to do
29:15
reasonably well I didn’t want her to
29:17
fall and in a sense there could be
29:19
nothing more status quo then rooting for
29:22
Merkel in Germany and that I think that
29:26
there’s a real danger here that those of
29:31
us who want to push back against the
29:34
dangers of democracy end up looking like
29:37
protectors of the establishment and the
29:39
ruling class how do you respond to that
29:42
what’s your sort of strategy and
29:44
approach on that today I absolutely
29:47
agree missus this is crucial so a 2016
29:50
election in my mind the United States
29:52
was a contest between a moderate
29:55
politics of a status quo and an Axman
29:57
politics of change well it turns out
30:00
that when those are the rules of
30:01
engagement the extremist parties of
30:03
change can win not necessarily because
30:06
most Americans are extremists
30:10
because they really won some promise of
30:13
a country that changes that actually
30:15
delivers more for them and so what we
30:18
need to do among people who are more
30:21
politically moderate is to offer the
30:24
vision of the real politics of change to
30:27
show how without embracing a populist
30:29
mind frame how without sacrificing the
30:33
rights of minorities sacrificing
30:34
varieties of immigrants and so on we can
30:36
actually promise people a real vision of
30:39
of a better society and to me the great
30:42
failings of Angela Merkel and the grand
30:45
coalition that is now in power again in
30:46
Germany is that they’re not using the
30:49
big parliamentary majority they had and
30:51
still to some degree have in order to do
30:54
that but they aren’t actually saying hey
30:56
we are in favor of globalization and
30:59
free trade and all of those good things
31:02
but we’re really going to fight to make
31:04
sure that rich individuals actually pay
31:06
the tax in Germany or the United States
31:07
but corporations actually pay a fair
31:10
amount of tax in these countries that we
31:14
make it much easier for productivity to
31:18
grow in our countries because that’s one
31:20
of the main drivers of middle-class
31:22
incomes by investing a ton more money in
31:25
education that we are actually making
31:30
sure that people don’t have to keep
31:34
spending more and more money on the most
31:36
essential goods from housing to
31:39
education to health care now in all of
31:41
these countries visa huge problems and
31:43
the establishment parties aren’t
31:45
actually fighting for that we’re not
31:47
actually saying here are some ways to
31:50
radically change the way we run things
31:53
the way that we have public policy in
31:55
order to ensure that we have a better
31:58
distribution of against from
32:00
globalization and by the way much more
32:02
productivity growth much more growth in
32:04
incomes as well without thereby you know
32:08
giving in to the puppets all of these
32:09
things are possible those ideas out some
32:12
of them and even particularly
32:14
far-fetched employing four or five times
32:17
more people at vis to look after people
32:20
who are hiding the money in tax havens
32:22
is a no-brainer
32:23
it’s really easy to do and it pays for
32:25
itself tenfold so why aren’t we doing it
32:29
if I would suspect if Hillary Clinton
32:32
were here or Martin Schultz of the SPD
32:34
were here they would both say that’s
32:37
pretty much what we were suggesting in
32:39
the campaign and yet no one noticed that
32:41
that’s what we were suggesting is that
32:43
would they be right or wrong or half
32:45
right they’d be half right at best so
32:48
when you look at the advert compaines I
32:50
don’t think but they have a radical
32:52
measures on on any of those things but
32:55
it’s also a matter of how you actually
32:57
talk about those things and salvers so I
think one of the failings to me over
Hillary Clinton campaign was that it
never actually set out a vision for
America it basically said he is a good
fix on this and he’s a good fix on this
and he has a good fix on this and he is
something that I’m giving this could be
something that I’m giving that group
it’s not saying here are the ways in
which we’re going to make America work
for everybody and make it fair to
everybody and hear the ways in which yes
some things are working but there’s also
lots of things but really aren’t working
instead the message was you know America
is already great I’m gonna disguise the
fact that I have two questions to ask by
turning my two questions into one
question with us with the semicolon and
then if people want to start lining up
please feel free I’d like you to talk
about young people because you
especially if you look at the United
States and you acknowledge this in the
33:53
focus especially if you look at the
33:54
United States Americans under 30 or
33:57
Americans under 45 really promise to be
34:00
the drivers for change in a I think
34:04
positive direction in our country I’ve
34:07
told my kids that when my generation is
34:09
gone you guys will make things fine
34:12
except I want to be around to see it so
34:14
there’s a kind of contradiction there
34:17
the and and yet you have some more more
34:21
worries about young people more in
34:22
Europe than here so I’d like you I’d
34:26
like you to talk about that and then
34:29
secondly I would like you to talk about
34:33
sort of in in hopeful terms do you
at the response to what you write about
in the book in Europe or in the United
States and see anything coming together
that might actually be successful in
pushing back against the war on liberal
democracy or are you still more in Akos
and/or a mood so so starting with with
young people I mean I think so so look
but the thing is are quite stark right I
mean I’ve alluded into a couple of times
may as well say my loud so you know you
ask people how important is it to you to
live in a democracy among older
Americans born in 1930s 1940s over
two-thirds say absolutely important
among Millennials born since 1980 less
than one-third – when you ask people
about whether they think army rule is a
good system of government and a lot of
these figures are in the book twenty
years ago one in 16 Americans said
that’s a good system of government now
one in sixty and among young at a fluent
Americans is actually going up from six
to 35 percent nearly a six-fold increase
the counter argument against this for
pushback when I get is oh but all of the
people who voted for Donald Trump were
old people so of a political
manifestation of this actually is is
much more hmong older people and younger
people now the first answer to that is
what I’m hearing here from the left
which is not true right actually there
was a lot of young people who did vote
for Donald Trump among white people
under the age of 30
48 percent voted for Donald Trump and 43
percent for Hillary Clinton which is
which is a very worrying thing the
second thing I would say is that Donald
Trump didn’t really try to appeal to
young people right I’m he’s himself a
very you know an old guy and that’s just
not what his campaign was was designed
to do now you could easily get forms of
a proton populism where they’re on the
right where there’s clearly a quite
vibrant young or dried scene and so on
or for that matter on on on the left the
does try to tap into the deep systemic
discontent with democracy
that you see among a lot of young P and
the third point is well go and look at
Europe and you see with young people are
some of the strongest supporters of
populist movements on both the left and
the right in the French presidential
elections in the first round over 50% of
young people over 50 percent of young
people voted for Ivor marine lepen the
far-right populist all jean-luc
mélenchon the far left populist in Italy
37:18
you see that not only did nearly 2/3 of
37:22
your overall Italian electorate go for
37:24
iowa’s Silvio Berlusconi over far-right
37:26
league or the the five star movement
37:30
which has strong connections to Russia
37:32
and has run by people who believe in
37:34
9/11 was an inside job but the only
37:36
demographic among which there was less
37:39
vacays was the oldest people among young
37:41
people something like 80% verge for his
37:43
parties so so absolutely this fred is
37:46
among young people as well as all of you
37:49
now to a second question of how well are
37:51
we standing up against this I think
37:56
that’s roughly three scenarios for
37:57
what’s going to happen in the next years
37:59
the United States the first is that
38:03
Donald Trump does such a terrible job
38:06
and ends up being repudiated so broadly
38:11
losses so disastrously in the midterms
38:13
you know wins one and a half states in
38:16
2020 there’s a real moment of coming
38:20
together and a real recognition of how
38:22
dangerous it is for people to to flower
38:26
most basic rules of our political system
38:27
and not as a recognition that this
38:29
particular guy failed but that similar
38:32
kinds of movements are all dangerous
38:34
nothing that’s possible but I I’m not
38:37
holding my breath foot
38:39
the second scenario is V inverse it is
38:43
that like Edwin has done in Turkey like
38:47
Auburn is succeeding in doing and hungry
38:49
like it looks like the Polish government
38:51
may be succeeding and doing in Poland
38:54
Donald Trump actually manages to expand
38:56
his base to deliver for some of his core
38:58
constituency to undermine independence
39:03
titude sly for the pattern of justice
39:05
and and the FBI to corrupt the process
39:10
of elections more and more and that he
39:12
essentially becomes a form of dictator
39:15
of a course over the next six or eight
39:16
years now again I think that’s possible
39:20
but in part because Donald Trump has
39:23
actually been very incompetent at
39:24
following the PlayBook of a vote for a
39:27
town leaders around the world in part
39:29
because he hasn’t been very good to
39:30
delivering for his base in part because
39:32
he’s not very strategic in his attacks
39:34
on institutions but it’s always obvious
39:35
but it’s naked self-interest in part
39:38
because even his rhetoric always seems
39:40
to be a little bit more about himself
39:41
and about setting up that essential
39:44
contra contours putting himself and the
39:47
people and so on I’m hopeful that’s not
39:50
going to happen and in part because
39:51
where’s the great resistance movements
39:52
of Americans actually heating and taking
39:55
seriously those people who are once
39:57
called casandra’s and going out to to
40:00
resist Donald Trump and all kinds of
40:02
concrete ways my big fear now when I
40:04
talk about this in the book is the third
40:07
scenario what I would call the Roman
40:09
scenario but which I had in mind the
40:11
late Roman Republic but given the
40:14
elections a week ago I guess I’m a owes
40:16
to be talking about Rome today which is
40:18
that you have a populist figure like the
40:22
kuraki in Rome were like Sabha
40:23
Berlusconi in Italy for that matter that
40:26
exploits deep discontent of a political
40:28
system and comes to a political stage
40:31
crew creates a huge constitutional
40:33
crisis and after a bunch of years is
40:36
thrown out of a system again Chimaera’s
40:38
Krakow’s was killed Silvio Berlusconi
40:41
ended up resigning in disgrace in 2011
40:46
but because the underlying reasons for
40:49
this discontent aren’t being tackled
40:51
because we’re not doing a good enough
40:52
job of making sure that ordinary people
40:54
actually get an improvement of a living
40:56
status because we’re not creating an
40:57
inclusive patriotism but emphasizes what
40:59
unites us across racial and religious
41:02
lines rather than what what divides us
41:04
um you you have this similar kind of
41:07
energy coming back six years later like
41:11
now in Italy ten years later has
41:13
happened with with Jewish crocuses
41:16
younger brother and so over the course
41:18
of perhaps 20 perhaps 40 perhaps 60
41:21
years you slowly get such an erosion of
41:25
a political system that you wind up that
41:28
to me is the biggest fear that this is
41:30
not a matter of dealing with it in 2020
41:32
of dealing with in 2018 it’s something
41:35
that we’re gonna be fighting not just
41:36
for the rest of your lifetime each day
41:38
but for the rest of the lifetime of a
41:40
few young people in this crowd as well
41:41
[Laughter]
41:52
but we go but that doesn’t mean you can
41:54
look it up on Google and not buy the
41:55
book
41:58
can you introduce yourselves when you
41:59
ask a question is the mic working yes
42:02
okay yes I’m Jeremiah reamer this is not
42:06
a plan DJ asked me to ask a provocative
42:09
question earlier but but I just thought
42:11
it up my my question has to do with you
42:16
have a a term I’m not completely
42:19
satisfied with to talk about the the
42:23
opposite of the Democratic populist you
42:27
call them I think is it undemocratic
42:29
liberals and I guess my question goes to
42:32
whether they’re really undemocratic or
42:35
incapable of making a democratic
42:37
connection because I actually think a
42:38
lot of these people want to be
42:40
democratic but they’re unable to make a
42:43
kind of a connection to electoral
42:45
politics and to the kind of successful
42:48
model where they we’re sort of their
42:53
expertise their professional knowledge
42:56
was consulted and valued and
42:59
big tent party political leaders were
43:01
able to use that but I think they want
43:04
to be democratic you know there’s a
43:07
tendency to view technocrats is just bad
43:09
but I think there are good Technic rats
43:11
and bad techno I think Mario Draghi is
43:13
kind of a good technocratic along with
43:15
Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke they did
43:17
some good things so my question to you
43:20
is and by the way this is related to
43:23
another observation I made about the
43:25
Trump reaction to Trump among the most
43:28
aggrieved people about the Trump
43:30
election are people who are professional
43:34
civil servants who feel they have
43:36
professional expertise it’s not just the
43:37
fact that they’re cosmopolitan hipsters
43:39
living in by coastal cities they also
43:41
feel their professional knowledge useful
43:44
for government is being completely
43:46
ignored how can those people how do you
43:49
think the good technic ratso to speak if
43:51
you agree with my my term can can remake
43:55
a connection I mean obviously yeah yeah
43:58
so yeah go ahead yes 14 being so I think
44:08
the short answer is very termos and
44:11
democratic liberal robin anti-democratic
44:12
liberals so in essence I agree but just
44:15
just to explain that time a little bit
44:17
to people who haven’t read the book so
44:18
one of the arguments I make is that you
44:20
know we need to think of our pokel
44:22
system as having these two elements
44:23
liberal democracy the liberal has
44:25
nothing to do with liberal and
44:26
conservative it’s not you know brock
44:28
obama as george w bush it is a
44:31
commitment to invent rights to to the
44:35
rights of minorities to the rule of law
44:37
to the separation of powers and amah
44:39
cracy in my mind when becomes actually
44:41
translating popular views into public
44:43
policies unless we’re actually managing
44:45
to make sure that our political system
44:46
is responsive to what people want it
44:49
doesn’t seem to me very democratic now
44:51
what i think is happening in the world
44:53
is two things on the one side for a long
44:56
time we’ve had a system of rights
44:58
without terribly much democracy of a
45:00
undemocratic liberalism which is to say
45:02
a system in which yes we do a reasonably
45:05
good job at protecting individual rights
45:07
and minority rights and the separation
45:10
of powers but we’re not doing a great
45:12
job
45:13
often shirring that we’re actually
45:15
translating what people think into
45:17
policy and that’s the case because of a
45:19
huge role of money in politics it was a
45:21
revolving door between lobbyists and
45:22
legislators yes because of a certain
45:27
elite class but doesn’t have much
45:29
circulation of ordinary people but also
45:32
because a lot of bureaucratic and
45:34
technical institutions that do do a
45:35
great job take lots of issues out of
45:38
democratic contestation so that lots of
45:40
decisions are made by the Supreme Court
45:43
by an independent central bank and by
45:45
international organizations are
45:46
precluded from politics through trade
45:49
treaties and you take all of those
45:51
things together and it’s not surprising
45:52
when lots of people say no between
45:55
listening to me right now we need to
45:58
understand that to understand part of a
46:00
populist instinct which is the inverse
46:02
it’s not rise for democracy it’s
46:04
democracy vaad rights it’s saying we are
46:07
gonna speak for a majority and actually
46:09
put forward all of the politically
46:11
incorrect ideas that people actually
46:12
like now often unfortunate side is
46:15
really our popular when you look in
46:16
Switzerland whoever was a referendum as
46:19
a result of which the Swiss Constitution
46:21
now reads I quote there’s freedom of
46:24
religion in Switzerland the building of
46:27
minarets is forbidden she doesn’t make
46:30
much sense that shows that actually a
46:33
majority of Swiss people did want to
46:35
restrict the rights of a Muslim minority
46:37
well now the problem with that is that
46:39
eventually a liberal democracy rights
46:41
democracy overrides degenerates into
46:44
straight for dictatorship because once
46:46
you’ve taken away separation of powers
46:47
once you have put your own people in the
46:50
courts in the electoral commission as
46:52
this happened in Hungary in the media
46:53
the position along it has a real chance
46:56
of getting rid of so you know between
47:01
those two evils I think I know which one
47:02
I would pick but in order to deal with
47:06
the underlying drivers of his populist
47:07
anger we need to find ways to make our
47:10
political system more responsive to what
47:13
people want and even for a lot of
47:14
technocratic institutions do a great job
47:16
I think we need to recognize that they
47:18
have problematic aspects to them well
47:22
you kind of
47:23
answer some of the questions I have but
47:25
let me just make this statement and let
47:28
you comment the Democratic state has to
47:32
rein in the forces that are trying to
47:34
destroy it
47:35
those are very various like the Romani
47:41
corrupt press the preventing people from
47:44
voting not educating them to the point
47:48
that they vote for the man wants to be
47:52
dictator if we don’t do that we have to
47:56
be to watch be watchful canter and we
48:00
know what happened in Germany what
48:03
happened in other kinds of each to me
48:05
they are not becoming democracies they
48:08
are losing their freedom and and people
48:12
just let that happen you know and if we
48:15
don’t we are not alert what is happening
48:17
why do we believe what we hear in some
48:21
radio or television station why is that
48:24
allowed to happen
48:25
lying everyday to people so one of the
48:30
things what I think is really important
48:31
is to actually you know educate people
48:33
about the values of our political system
48:35
and how our political system works one
48:38
of the reasons why there’s more and more
48:41
information online is because the rise
48:43
of the Internet and of social media and
48:44
so on but I think it goes beyond just
48:47
the existence of Facebook and Twitter
48:49
things can spread because people don’t
48:51
trust the government and we don’t trust
48:52
the government because a we don’t really
48:55
know how it works because we barely
48:56
teach civics anymore in high schools
48:58
right and be because even insofar as we
49:02
do you know how it works they only see
49:04
the negative things in our political
49:06
system this is something that I say that
49:10
could have it where I teach and my
49:11
faculty colleagues aren’t too pleased
49:12
with me for it
49:13
which is that we need to actually tell
49:16
people what’s good about our political
49:17
system as well now that doesn’t mean
49:19
that we should be uncritical doesn’t
49:21
mean but we shouldn’t also be upfront
49:23
about the shortcomings of our political
49:25
system and ways in which people continue
49:28
to suffer injustice and discrimination
49:30
but if we only talk about those things
49:32
and never say about explain how it what
49:36
it is but
49:37
makes our political system and why it is
49:38
but living related states for all of its
49:40
problems it’s still a lot better than
49:41
living in Russia or Iran or China or
49:45
Venezuela then we shouldn’t be surprised
49:48
that people are willing to throw all of
49:50
that away and so I think you know one of
49:53
the things but we can all do with our
49:56
[Music]
49:58
children with our siblings with our
50:00
parents with if you’re a teacher of your
50:02
students if you’re a writer a journalist
50:04
with in your articles is to actually
50:08
recommit people to those political
50:11
values from Plato to our startled and
50:13
from whose thought to the founding
50:15
fathers all of the great thinkers about
50:18
self-government knew how crucial it is
50:20
to transmit our political values from
50:22
one generation to the next and we might
50:24
have paid a little bit of lip service to
50:25
that in the last 30 40 years who stopped
50:28
taking it seriously and that’s a big
50:29
problem I’ve been thinking that the last
50:32
14 months are brought to you by Joni
50:33
Mitchell you don’t know what you got
50:36
till it’s gone and could I bring in I
50:38
could the folks at the store tell me
50:41
when we should shut down a called a
50:43
Dogma yah
50:45
actually I will take two more questions
50:47
and then was that all we have yeah sorry
50:54
actually can I amend that if people are
50:57
briefed let me just take four questions
51:00
fast all at once and then Yasha can give
51:03
a very compact answers because he wants
51:06
to sell books so four quick thank you
51:09
my name is Don greenhouse from the
51:12
Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua New
51:15
York where EJ has lectured a number of
51:18
times when we invite you all to come and
51:21
hear some discussions just like this
51:23
very quickly I can’t remember her name
51:26
an author recent book called strangers
51:30
in their own land a hotel and she uses a
51:33
metaphor so I’d like to you to think
51:35
about it in terms of micro rather than
51:38
macro sense of these we’re all lined up
51:41
back from the pot of gold and we’re all
51:44
standing quietly in line and our liberal
51:47
democracy keeps bringing people into
51:50
the line in front of us the blacks the
51:53
gays etc etc and this is causing this
51:57
angst and populism I wondered if you
52:00
might comment
52:01
hold that thought thank you sir Stewart
52:04
Schulz I’ll try to make this really
52:06
quick and condense it but you’ve
52:08
identified populism you know there’s
52:11
lack of agency this lack of Economic
52:14
Opportunity threat to cultural identity
52:16
as the major threats of liberal
52:17
democracy and I can’t speak to the
52:20
international situation but at least
52:21
domestically Trump ran on all those
52:24
things but his actual administration has
52:26
nothing to do with any of that message
52:28
it has to do with advancing corporate
52:31
interests and it’s it seems to me that
52:33
the the real threat to liberal democracy
52:35
is not in these issues which are real
52:39
but in the forces that use those issues
52:43
to advance agendas that are more
52:45
dangerous to liberal democracy I mean
52:47
what’s the role in capital in all of
52:49
this so it’s clear that Donald Trump is
52:53
a symptom of fraud or underlying causes
52:55
as he undermines institutions are we
52:58
doing a good enough job to deal with the
53:01
underlying causes or are we just saying
53:03
he’s undermined this institution there
53:05
for Donald Trump’s about sorry for the
53:10
rest yeah my name is avery James I’m a
53:15
sophomore at American University quick
53:17
question you mentioned how we need and
53:19
you actually end up at new york times on
53:20
this as well this new nationalism this
53:22
new patriotism I would just ask how is
53:24
that in any way unique from what Marco
53:25
Rubio won in 2013 how was that in any
53:27
way unique from what Jeb Bush who was
53:28
bankrolled by the Republican Party
53:30
basically Mitt Romney but he’s fluent in
53:32
Spanish this time I mean how is that any
53:33
different from what the people who had
53:35
the power to make decisions the
53:36
Republican Party wanted and ended up
53:38
with what we have I mean that how is it
53:40
non-unique right yeah that’s question I
53:41
really have is how does that change the
53:43
current trend Thanks all right
53:46
I might need some some reminders but but
53:49
I’ll try and get through these four
53:50
questions quickly and then say something
53:51
inspiring at the end there we go that’s
53:53
my task so yes so please that’s so so
54:02
the cutting in line metaphor I think
54:04
it’s
54:04
quite powerful and and and and but
54:06
that’s how a lot of people think about
54:07
it right that that they’ve been they’re
54:10
frustrated we’re not getting what we
54:12
want we’ve been promised a pot of gold
54:13
they’re still sounding a line for it and
54:15
now why are the people doing well like
54:17
for me that precisely explains the
54:19
lunacy of pretending that cultural
54:22
factors and economic factors ah it’s
54:26
either one of y’all this is the way in
54:28
which it’s connected but if people feel
54:30
like I’m getting a fair shake and I I’m
54:33
a lot wealthier than my parents wear and
54:35
my kids are gonna do better than me I
54:36
know what that guy over there is doing
54:39
fine too good for him you know he’s not
54:41
like me he’s an immigrant or he’s
54:42
whatever right but but I’m doing fine
54:45
nice what he’s doing fine too when
54:47
people start to feel you know what I’ve
54:50
been taking advantage of all my life and
54:51
politicians are we delivering for me and
54:53
my community is falling apart in all
54:54
kinds of ways and there’s an opioid
54:57
epidemic and and our incomes are
54:58
stagnating and because union jobs are
55:00
gone and now why is that guy over there
55:02
doing fine it’s easy to scapegoat and
55:05
blame right and so one of the ways of
55:07
dealing with hat is to make sure that we
55:09
actually deliver on the American dream
55:11
for people in a way that that we
55:13
promised um on inclusive patriotism I
55:17
mean I think that there is a deep store
55:19
of inclusive patriotism in in American
55:22
political history
55:23
um I think often people didn’t
55:26
necessarily act on that so you know in
55:28
the end though I agree with some what
55:30
Republicans had perfectly decent metric
55:32
around it Muslim weren’t willing to
55:34
actually vote in those ways and and and
55:37
and ensure that we take those issues on
55:39
the table through some kind of
55:40
comprehensive deal where we come to a
55:42
decision about that I also think that
55:45
there is a little bit of resistance to
55:47
it on on parts of left-right so what we
55:50
have at the moment is a riot politically
55:54
who says let’s talk about nationalism
55:55
over time but let’s talk about it in
55:58
exclusive ways basically the kind of
56:00
form of white nationalism of which I
56:01
would argue our current president is
56:03
guilty but then on the Left I think best
56:06
instinct but I know quite well because I
56:07
grew up with it wishes to say hey
56:10
nationalism can be so destructive and it
56:12
was so destructive in 20th century why
56:15
don’t we actually move beyond it
56:18
leave nationalism behind in the century
56:20
which is so cruelly shaped and that you
56:25
know allows us to be Cosmopolitan’s it
56:26
allows us to not have any strong
56:28
collective identity whatever that’s one
56:30
kind of approach the other approach is
56:32
to say we’re going to celebrate every
56:33
form of collective identity at the
56:35
sub-national level and religious group
56:38
every ethnic group every sexual root and
56:40
so on but we’re not going to celebrate
56:42
the nation because a nation is bad and
56:45
has this very bad history and the other
56:47
things are under now I agree that we
56:49
need to defend every group from attack
56:52
and discrimination that is ongoing but I
56:55
also think that the nation can actually
56:57
be a great stew of solidarity but it can
56:59
be precisely the thing but allows you to
57:01
see why you should care about somebody
57:03
who doesn’t have the same skillet
57:05
doesn’t have skin color doesn’t have the
57:06
same religion and so on and we’re
57:08
emphasizing that an inclusive manner is
57:10
a way to build social solidarity and
57:13
fight discrimination rather than a way
57:15
to advance so to meet nationalism as a
57:18
half domesticated animal and instead of
57:20
leaving it on its own to be stoked and
57:22
prodded by the worst kind of people I
57:24
think though we need to domesticate one
57:26
nice way of doing that in a political
57:28
speech and I have many disagreements
57:30
with him and other things is what Amanda
57:33
McConnell said in Marseille on the
57:35
campaign trail he said when looking to
57:38
his audience I see people from Mali in
57:40
the Ivory Coast and and Algeria and
57:43
Italy in Poland who what do I see I see
57:46
the people of Marseille what do I see I
57:48
see the people of France look here
57:50
ladies and gentlemen of horn as you know
57:51
the far-right party of my underpin this
57:54
is what it looks like to be proud to be
57:56
French that to me is a nationalism that
57:58
actually makes sense and and having
58:00
parts of right could fight for it most
58:02
strongly living parts of a life could
58:03
also fight for it more strongly there’s
58:06
two questions but I’m missing here
58:11
and one one alright so um okay so the
58:20
question about corporation look I mean I
58:21
think that
58:24
liberal democracy works when democracy
58:29
in capitalism and balance I don’t think
58:31
the answer is to abolish capitalism
58:33
because there is no democratic country
58:36
but it has ever existed on the face of
58:38
the earth without capitalism and while I
58:41
get right-wing critiques of
58:43
globalization because we standard of
58:45
living of steel workers in Michigan but
58:48
he hasn’t improved that much over the
58:49
last thirty years and most because of
58:50
our political choices Robin makes
58:52
globalization but at least I get it I
58:53
don’t really understand certain forms of
58:56
left-wing critique of globalization
58:58
because if you actually say that you
59:00
care about the well-being of poor people
59:02
in the world and you look at the fact
59:04
for two billion people have been lifted
59:06
out of dire poverty in India and China
59:07
over the course of the last twenty or
59:10
thirty years people didn’t have
59:11
electricity you didn’t have food to eat
59:13
we didn’t have medication who now leads
59:16
middle-class lives I think we need to
59:19
recognize what all some positively power
59:21
it has but we need to also make sure
59:24
that we actually use those fruits in
59:27
order to deliver for ordinary people
59:30
now some kindness have done much better
59:32
than this than other countries and it’s
59:34
not because the more or less capitalists
59:35
it’s because we’ve pursued policies but
59:37
I actually directed to helping ordinary
59:40
people and that’s in part because money
59:43
had much less of a hold on their
59:45
politics when it does in our culture so
59:47
this is not rocket science it’s solvable
59:49
but we need to fight to solve it it’s
59:52
going to be hard to solve it
59:56
I’m gonna end with you know I’m
60:00
sometimes told that when I talk or you
60:05
know when people read my articles but it
60:06
can be a little depressing so so thanks
60:10
for coming out to get depressed on a
60:12
Sunday afternoon with lovely sunny
60:14
weather but but I actually genuinely
60:16
think and I think your book
60:19
One Nation are trumped prints without
60:20
really beautifully as well EJ but this
60:22
is a moment to be inspired the spine
60:25
will be ugly this now apologies when I
60:27
grew up politically when I came away
60:29
pull it came of age politically it
60:32
seemed like what we would do wouldn’t
60:33
matter that much because yes there’s
60:36
some policies were better and some
60:37
policies there were worse or some
60:39
ongoing discrimination and injustice but
60:41
in the end we sort of knew what the
60:43
world was gonna look like 30 or 35 years
60:45
from now right now we don’t know that
60:48
and it’s up to how we act to ensure how
60:52
that’s going to look so yes that’s scary
60:54
and yes it’s easy to get depressed by
60:56
that but it’s also easy to get inspired
60:58
by that because it means where we can
60:59
actually act um the best picture image
61:03
for this in my mind comes from our
61:04
mizar’s
61:05
who says has a huge fire burning and
61:08
each of us only has a little glass of
61:10
water in the hand and and it can seem
61:13
hopeless if I go to the water and I dump
61:16
my little glass of water on it on the
61:17
fire that’s not going to change anything
61:19
the fire is far too big well but thanks
61:22
for coming out everybody there’s a lot
61:23
of people in this room and if each of us
61:26
takes our glass of water and I’m set on
61:28
fire then together we might just be able
61:29
to extinguish it now the way to do that
61:32
is to fight for real change in our
61:35
system not just to defeat Donald Trump
61:36
it’s to actually make sure that our
61:39
political system delivers forward many
61:40
people again is to make sure that people
61:41
see what’s valuable in our political
61:43
system again and if you agree with some
61:45
of my descriptions and diagnosis today
61:48
you’ll have an idea of what you can go
61:50
and do at home if you disagree when you
61:52
have your own ideas but but the
61:55
important thing is that unlike people in
61:58
Turkey and like people in Russia and
62:00
like people in Venezuela we still have a
62:02
freedom to go and fight and organize and
62:04
mobilize politically and argue and so I
62:07
think it’s our duty to do that
62:09
Inuyasha for Congress pack will be
62:12
collecting signatures up here I want to
62:21
read just the last words of the book
62:24
with what Yasha said he said nobody can
62:27
promise us a happy end but those of us
62:29
who truly care about our values and our
62:31
institutions are determined to fight for
62:34
our convictions without regard for the
62:37
consequences though the fruits of our
62:39
labor may remain uncertain we will do
62:41
what we can to save liberal democracy
62:44
thank you all for coming out and yes we
62:46
will sign the bus
62:58
you

Dare We Dream of the End of the G.O.P.?

In a new book, the pollster Stanley Greenberg predicts a blue tidal wave in 2020.

Toward the end of his new book, “R.I.P. G.O.P.,” the renowned Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg makes a thrilling prediction, delivered with the certainty of prophecy. “The year 2020 will produce a second blue wave on at least the scale of the first in 2018 and finally will crash and shatter the Republican Party that was consumed by the ill-begotten battle to stop the New America from governing,” he writes.

It sounds almost messianic: the Republican Party, that foul agglomeration of bigotry and avarice that has turned American politics into a dystopian farce, not just defeated but destroyed. The inexorable force of demography bringing us a new, enlightened political dispensation. Greenberg foresees “the death of the Republican Party as we’ve known it,” and a Democratic Party “liberated from the nation’s suffocating polarization to use government to advance the public good.” I’d like to believe it, and maybe you would too. But should we?

This is not the first time that experts have predicted the inevitable triumph of progressive politics. Seventeen years ago, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira published “The Emerging Democratic Majority,” which argued that the country was on the cusp of a liberal political realignment driven by growing diversity, urbanization and gender equality. In sheer numerical terms they were right; between then and now the Republican Party won the presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. But Republicans still have more power than Democrats, and in 2017, Judis disavowed his book’s thesis, arguing that only populist economics could deliver Democratic victories.

As it happens, Greenberg, who became famous as Bill Clinton’s pollster in 1992 and consulted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, told me he used to “shudder” at the “Emerging Democratic Majority” analysis. “I’m used to campaigns in which you impact what’s going to happen,” he said. “The idea that it’s just going to happen because of trends is dangerous. And it was dangerous with Hillary.”

There’s a fascinating tension in “R.I.P. G.O.P.” Greenberg is scathing about the failures of the Hillary Clinton campaign, accusing it of “malpractice.” Yet he believes that at least some of the political assumptions that were mistaken in 2016 will be sound in 2020.

Stanley Greenberg
Credit Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty Images

Greenberg suggests that Clinton erred by focusing too much on multiculturalism at the expense of class, and by trying to discredit Donald Trump as a vulgarian rather than a plutocrat. As Clinton wrote in “What Happened,” her post mortem of her shattering loss, Greenberg “thought my campaign was too upbeat on the economy, too liberal on immigration, and not vocal enough about trade.”

Yet going into 2020, Greenberg believes that what he calls the “rising American electorate” — including millennials, people of color and single women — will ensure Democratic victory, almost regardless of whom the party nominates. “We’re dealing with demographic and cultural trends, but we’re also dealing with people that are organizing and talking to one and another and becoming much more conscious of their values,” he said.

In his polling and focus groups, he’s seeing that the reaction to Trump is changing people. “The Trump presidency so invaded the public’s consciousness that it was hard to talk to previously disengaged and unregistered unmarried women, people of color and millennials without them going right to Trump,” he writes. A few months after the election, he realized he could no longer put Clinton and Trump voters in focus groups together because indignant Clinton voters, particularly women, so dominated the conversations. “This turned out to be an unintended test of the strength of their views and resolve to resist,” he wrote.

That resolve to resist has led many voters to define their own beliefs in opposition to Trump’s. On immigration, for example, “every Trump outrage increased the proportion of Americans who said, ‘We are an immigrant country,’” writes Greenberg. Indeed, according to recent Pew data, 62 percent of Americans say that immigrants strengthen the country, while 28 percent, a near record low, see them as a burden.

Yet rather than modulating their anti-immigrant politics in response, Republicans have little choice but to double down, because so many of their voters are driven by nativism. In this way, Greenberg sees an omen for the Republican Party in California. It’s hard to remember now, but the state was once the heartland of conservatism, nurturing the political careers of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. From 1968 to 1988, it voted Republican in every presidential election, and regularly elected Republican governors.

But in 1994, California Republicans, fearful of changing demography, campaigned for Proposition 187, a ballot initiative meant to make life miserable for undocumented immigrants. It won — though courts blocked its implementation — but it also turned expanding constituencies in California against Republicans. Today the party has been reduced to an irrelevant rump faction in state politics.

The specter of California haunts the modern right; many conservatives see it as a portent of what demographic change will do to Republican power nationally. But California can just as easily be seen as a sign of how a political party can drive itself to ruin by making a cruel, doomed stand against the coming generation. If Greenberg is right, national Republicans, fearful of going the way of those in California, may have ensured precisely that fate.

But is he right? Unlike in California, you can’t win power in the United States just by getting the most votes. The political analyst David Wasserman has argued that Trump could lose the popular vote by as much as five million and still prevail in the Electoral College. Greenberg, however, is convinced that the 2018 midterms prove that mass turnout can overcome the Democrats’ structural disadvantages. “Every piece of data I have, the trends have moved to be more Democratic since 2018,” he said.

His confidence will not be enough to lessen the insomnia that has plagued me since the cursed night when Trump was elected. But his book should be a corrective to the media’s overweening focus on the mulish devotion of Trump voters. Trump hatred is a much more potent force in this country than Trump love. There is one way, and one way only, that Trump may surpass Barack Obama. Though Obama was a community organizer, Trump could turn out to be much better at mobilizing progressives.