Crack on US dollar hegemony is growing

The ambitious infrastructure plan of the US President Joe Biden was downsized, from the original $2.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion, which apparently is still not enough to gather support from the Republicans. Many American economists criticize that the Federal Reserve has run out of options after pouring money in the market and inflation hitting very high levels.

Meanwhile there are numerous data that suggest that the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency around the world is being weakened by the euro, Japan’s yen and China’s yuan. The deadly COVID-19 pandemic also intensified the decline of US dollar hegemony.

As indicated by the IMF, the share of euro reserves held by global central banks stood at 21 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, the same level as six years before; while the share of US dollar dropped to 59 percent, the lowest level in 25 years.

International financial institutions are voting with their feet, alleging that the US is deceiving the world with its dollar and living a “rich and rich alone” life by devaluing its currency and borrowing without limit.

The unrestrained borrowing from the US government, together with Federal Reserve’s unlimited quantitative easing measures, have directly caused the irrational soaring prices of international commodities, especially copper, aluminum and iron ore among other commodities for which China has been the biggest buyer. However, the economic common sense tells us that the global economy has been hit by the coronavirus for over a year and the fundamentals simply do not support a cyclical commodity price boom.

The increasing cost of raw materials will only mount more pressure on the living standards of the low to middle-income classes in the world.

The rising price of commodities is a financial phenomenon caused by the excessive dollar stimulus but the impact on the real economy has already been evidenced in increasing manufacturing costs around the world.

On the other hand, the pandemic has caused a reduction on people’s income. With a slow recovery in consumption, manufacturers have lost bargaining advantages down the supply chain. Instead of shifting the cost pressure of rising commodity prices to consumers, they might have to bear the loss.

As the real economy is undermined by the hegemony of the US dollar, insightful politicians and businessmen from all over the world have started to discuss how to crack the hegemony of the US dollar.

China’s yuan has been a major “driving currency” that has boosted the growth of global economy over three decades. However, its share as a foreign exchange reserve in the world has just exceeded 2 percent. Cracking the monopoly of the US dollar cannot depend mainly on the Chinese yuan but its potential cannot be underestimated as it recorded the highest strategic growth in foreign exchange reserves in the 21st century, in addition to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from the IMF.

World economies are looking forward to a new global monetary order that is impartial and reflects supply and demand in the real economy. Only the US is still expecting to benefit from a currency war in the 21st century while the rest of the world is looking to make money a neutral instrument for trade, rather than relying on monetary signals to guide or dominate the economy.

The pandemic has accelerated this trend. The IMF decided to issue $650 billion SDR in April, to aid developing countries during financial crisis. The world is entering the post-COVID era with a high probability that certain countries may suffer currency crises similar to those in 1997 and 2011. This requires central banks around the world to fully support the IMF through monetary policy coordination to help stabilize global economic recovery.

The US will never give up the hegemonic system of the dollar easily and will block financial cooperation among countries through various means. World economies should firmly promote mutually beneficial opening-up of financial markets and enhance currency swap agreements between central banks. Through economic globalization, the dollar hegemony can be broken.

The article was compiled based on a commentary written by Xu Weihong, Chief Economist at Yongxing Securities. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

The US dollar’s hegemony is looking fragile

The modernisation of China’s exchange-rate system could deal the currency a painful blow

The mighty US dollar continues to reign supreme in global markets. But the greenback’s dominance may well be more fragile than it appears, because expected future changes in China’s exchange-rate regime are likely to trigger a significant shift in the international monetary order.

For many reasons, the Chinese authorities will probably someday stop pegging the renminbi to a basket of currencies, and shift to a modern inflation-targeting regime under which they allow the exchange rate to fluctuate much more freely, especially against the dollar. When that happens, expect most of Asia to follow China. In due time, the dollar, currently the anchor currency for roughly two-thirds of world GDP, could lose nearly half its weight.

Considering how much the United States relies on the dollar’s special status – or what then-French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously called America’s “exorbitant privilege” – to fund massive public and private borrowing, the impact of such a shift could be significant. Given that the US has been aggressively using deficit financing to combat the economic ravages of COVID-19, the sustainability of its debt might be called into question.

The long-standing argument for a more flexible Chinese currency is that China is simply too big to let its economy dance to the US Federal Reserve’s tune, even if Chinese capital controls provide some measure of insulation. China’s GDP (measured at international prices) surpassed that of the US back in 2014 and is still growing far faster than the US and Europe, making the case for greater exchange-rate flexibility increasingly compelling.

A more recent argument is that the dollar’s centrality gives the US government too much access to global transactions information. This is also a major concern in Europe. In principle, dollar transactions could be cleared anywhere in the world, but US banks and clearing houses have a significant natural advantage, because they can be implicitly (or explicitly) backed by the Fed, which has unlimited capacity to issue currency in a crisis. In comparison, any dollar clearing house outside the US will always be more subject to crises of confidence – a problem with which even the eurozone has struggled.

Moreover, former US President Donald Trump’s policies to check China’s trade dominance are not going away anytime soon. This is one of the few issues on which Democrats and Republicans broadly agree, and there is little question that trade deglobalization undermines the dollar.

Chinese policymakers face many obstacles in trying to break away from the current renminbi peg. But, in characteristic style, they have slowly been laying the groundwork on many fronts. China has been gradually allowing foreign institutional investors to buy renminbi bonds, and in 2016, the International Monetary Fund added the renminbi to the basket of major currencies that determines the value of Special Drawing Rights (the IMF’s global reserve asset).

In addition, the People’s Bank of China is far ahead of other major central banks in developing a central-bank digital currency. Although currently purely for domestic use, the PBOC’s digital currency ultimately will facilitate the renminbi’s international use, especially in countries that gravitate toward China’s eventual currency bloc. This will give the Chinese government a window into digital renminbi users’ transactions, just as the current system gives the US a great deal of similar information.

Will other Asian countries indeed follow China? The US will certainly push hard to keep as many economies as possible orbiting around the dollar, but it will be an uphill battle. Just as the US eclipsed Britain at the end of the nineteenth century as the world’s largest trading country, China long ago surpassed America by the same measure.

True, Japan and India may go their own way. But if China makes the renminbi more flexible, they will likely at the very least give the currency a weight comparable to that of the dollar in their foreign-exchange reserves.

There are striking parallels between Asia’s close alignment with the dollar today and the situation in Europe in the 1960s and early 1970s. But that era ended with high inflation and the collapse of the post-war Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. Most of Europe then recognized that intra-European trade was more important than trade with the US. This led to the emergence of a Deutsche Mark bloc that decades later morphed into the single currency, the euro.

This does not mean that the Chinese renminbi will become the global currency overnight. Transitions from one dominant currency to another can take a long time. During the two decades between World Wars I and II, for example, the new entrant, the dollar, had roughly the same weight in central-bank reserves as the British pound, which had been the dominant global currency for more than a century following the Napoleonic Wars in the early 1800s.

So, what is wrong with three world currencies – the euro, the renminbi, and the dollar – sharing the spotlight? Nothing, except that neither markets nor policymakers seem remotely prepared for such a transition. US government borrowing rates would almost certainly be affected, though the really big impact might fall on corporate borrowers, especially small and medium-size firms.

Today, it seems to be an article of faith among US policymakers and many economists that the world’s appetite for dollar debt is virtually insatiable. But a modernization of China’s exchange-rate arrangements could deal the dollar’s status a painful blow.

 Kenneth Rogoff is professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University. He was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003.

Ron Paul: The end of Dollar Hegemony (2006-02-15)

THE END OF DOLLAR HEGEMONY; Congressional Record Vol. 152, No. 19
(House of Representatives – February 15, 2006)

Text available as:

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[Pages H318-H324]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                       THE END OF DOLLAR HEGEMONY

  The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under the Speaker's announced policy of 
January 4, 2005, the gentleman from Texas (Mr. Paul) is recognized for 
60 minutes.
  Mr. PAUL. Mr. Speaker, my Special Order tonight deals with the 
subject, the end of dollar hegemony. Mr. Speaker, 100 years ago it was 
called dollar diplomacy; after World War II and especially after the 
fall of the Soviet Union in 1989 the policy had all been to dollar 
hegemony.
  After all of this great success, our dollar dominance is coming to an 
end. It has been said, rightly, that he who holds the gold makes the 
rules. In earlier times it was readily accepted that fair and honest 
trade be required in an exchange of something of real value. First, it 
was simply barter of goods, and then it was discovered that gold held a 
universal attraction and was a convenient substitute for more 
cumbersome barter transactions.
  Not only did gold facilitate exchange of goods and services, it 
served as a store of value for those who wanted to save for a rainy 
day. Though money developed naturally in the marketplace as governments 
grew in power, they assumed monopoly control over money. Sometimes 
governments succeeded in guaranteeing the quality and purity of gold; 
but in time, governments learned to outspend their revenues.
  New or higher taxes always incurred the disapproval of the people, so 
it was not long before the kings and caesars learned how to inflate 
their currencies by reducing the amount of gold in each coin, always 
hoping their subjects would not discover the fraud. But the people 
always did, and they strenuously objected.
  This helped pressure leaders to seek more gold by conquering other 
nations. The people became accustomed to living beyond their means and 
enjoyed the circuses and bread. Financing extravagances by conquering 
foreign lands seemed a logical alternative to working harder and 
producing more. Besides, conquering nations not only brought home gold; 
they brought home slaves as well. Taxing the people in conquered 
territories also provided an incentive to build empires.
  This system of government worked well for a while, but the moral 
decline of the people led to an unwillingness to produce for 
themselves. There was a limit to the number of countries that could be 
sacked for their wealth, and this always brought empires to an end. 
When gold no longer could be obtained, their military might crumbled. 
In those days, those who held the gold truly wrote the rules and lived 
well.
  That general rule has held fast throughout the ages. When gold was 
used and the rules protected honest

[[Page H319]]

commerce, productive nations thrived. Whenever wealthy nations, those 
with powerful armies and gold, strived only for empire and easy 
fortunes to support welfare at home, those nations failed.
  Today, the principles are the same, but the process is quite 
different. Gold is no longer a currency of the realm; paper is. The 
truth now is he who prints the money makes the rules, at least for the 
time being. Although gold is not used, the goals are the same: compel 
foreign countries to produce and subsidize the country with military 
superiority and control over the monetary printing presses.
  Since printing paper money is nothing short of counterfeiting, the 
issuer of the international currency must always be the country with 
the military might to guarantee control over the system. This 
magnificent scheme seems the perfect system for obtaining perpetual 
wealth for the country that issues the de facto world currency.
  The one problem, however, is that such a system destroys the 
character of the counterfeiting nation's people just as was the case 
when gold was the currency, and it was obtained by conquering other 
nations. This destroys the incentive to save and produce while 
encouraging debt and runaway welfare.
  The pressure at home to inflate the currency comes from the corporate 
welfare recipients, as well as those who demand handouts as 
compensation for their needs and perceived injuries by others. In both 
cases, personal responsibility for one's actions is rejected.
  When paper money is rejected, or when gold runs out, wealth and 
political stability are lost. The country then must go from living 
beyond its means to living beneath its means until the economic and 
political systems adjust to the new rules; rules no longer written by 
those who ran the now defunct printing press.
  Dollar diplomacy, a policy instituted by William Howard Taft and his 
Secretary of State, Philander C. Knox, was designed to enhance U.S. 
commercial investments in Latin America and the Far East. McKinley 
concocted a war against Spain in 1898 and Teddy Roosevelt's corollary 
to the Monroe Doctrine preceded Taft's aggressive approach to using the 
U.S. dollar and diplomat influence to secure U.S. investments abroad.
  This earned the popular title of ``dollar diplomacy.''
  The significance of Roosevelt's change was that our intervention now 
could be justified by the mere appearance that a country of interest to 
us was politically or fiscally vulnerable to European control. Not only 
did we claim a right, but even an official government obligation to 
protect our commercial interest from Europeans.
  This new policy came on the heels of the gunboat diplomacy of the 
late 19th century, and it meant we could buy influence before resorting 
to the threat of force. By the time dollar diplomacy of William Howard 
Taft was clearly articulated, the seeds of the American empire were 
planted, and they were destined to grow in the fertile political soil 
of a country that lost its love and respect for the Republic bequeathed 
to us by the authors of the Constitution. Indeed they did. It was not 
too long before dollar diplomacy became dollar hegemony in the second 
half of the 20th century.
  This transition only could have occurred with a dramatic change in 
monetary policy and the nature of the dollar itself. Congress created 
the Federal Reserve system in 1913. Between then and 1971, the 
principle of sound money was systematically undermined. Between 1913 
and 1971, the Federal Reserve found it much easier to expand the money 
supply at will for financing war or manipulating an economy with little 
resistance from Congress while benefiting the special interests that 
influence Congress.
  Dollar dominance got a huge boost after World War II. We were spared 
the destruction that so many other nations suffered, and our coffers 
were filled with the world's gold. But the world chose not to return to 
the discipline of the gold standard, and the politicians applauded. 
Printing money to pay the bills was a lot more popular than taxing or 
restraining or unnecessary spending. In spite of the short-term 
benefits, imbalances were institutionalized for decades to come.
  The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement solidified the dollar as the 
preeminent world reserve currency, replacing the British pound. Due to 
our political and military muscle, and because we had a huge amount of 
physical gold, the world readily accepted our dollar, defined as 1/35 
of an ounce of gold as the world's reserve currency.
  The dollar was said to be as good as gold and convertible to all 
foreign banks at that rate. For American citizens, however, it remained 
illegal to own. This was a gold exchange standard that from inception 
was doomed to fail.

  The U.S. did exactly what many predicted she would do: she printed 
more dollars for which there was no gold backing. But the world was 
content to accept these dollars for more than 25 years with little 
question, until the French and others in the late 1960s demanded we 
fulfill our promise to pay 1 ounce of gold for each $35 they delivered 
to the U.S. Treasury. This resulted in a huge gold drain that brought 
an end to a very poorly devised pseudo-gold standard.
  It all ended on August 15, 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window 
and refused to pay out any of our remaining 280 million ounces of gold. 
In essence, we declared our insolvency, and everyone recognized that 
some other monetary system had to be devised in order to bring 
stability to the markets. Amazingly, a new system was devised which 
allowed the U.S. to operate the printing presses for the world reserve 
currency, with no restraints placed on it, not even a presence of gold 
convertibility, none whatsoever.
  Though the new policy was even more deeply flawed, it nevertheless 
opened the door for dollar hegemony to spread. Realizing the world was 
embarking on something new and mind-boggling, elite money managers with 
especially strong support from U.S. authorities struck an agreement 
with OPEC to price oil in U.S. dollars exclusively for all worldwide 
transactions.
  This gave the dollar a special place among world currencies, in 
essence backed the dollar with oil. In return, the U.S. promised to 
protect the various oil-rich kingdoms in the Persian Gulf against 
threat or invasion or domestic coup. This arrangement helped ignite the 
radical Islamic movement among those who resented our influence in the 
region.
  The arrangement gave the dollar artificial strength with tremendous 
financial benefits for the United States. It allowed us to export our 
monetary inflation by buying oil and other goods at a great discount as 
dollar influence flourished.
  This post-Bretton Woods system was much more fragile than the system 
that existed between 1945 and 1971. Though the dollar-oil arrangement 
was helpful, it was not nearly as stable as the pseudo-gold standard 
under Bretton Woods. It certainly was less stable than the gold 
standard of the late 19th century.
  During the 1970s, the dollar nearly collapsed as oil prices surged 
and gold skyrocketed to $800 an ounce. By 1979, interest rates of 21 
percent were required to rescue the system. The pressure on the dollar 
in the 1970s, in spite of the benefits accrued to it, reflected 
reckless budget deficits and monetary inflation during the 1960s. The 
markets were not fooled by LBJ's claim that we could afford both guns 
and butter.
  Once again, the dollar was rescued, and this ushered in the age of 
true dollar hegemony, lasting from the early 1980s to the present. With 
tremendous cooperation coming from the central banks and international 
commercial banks, the dollar was accepted as if it were gold.
  Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan, on several occasions before the 
House Banking Committee, answered my challenges to him about his 
previously held favorable views on gold by claiming that he and other 
central bankers had gotten paper money, that is the dollar system, to 
respond as if it were gold. Each time I strongly disagreed and pointed 
out that if they had achieved such a feat they would have defied 
centuries of economic history regarding the need for money to be 
something of real value. He smugly and confidently concurred with this.
  In recent years, central banks and various financial institutions, 
all with vested interest in maintaining a workable fiat dollar 
standard, were not secretive about selling and maintaining large 
amounts of gold to the market,

[[Page H320]]

even while decreasing gold prices raised serious questions about the 
wisdom of such a policy. They never admitted to gold price fixing, but 
the evidence is abundant that they believed that if the gold price 
fell, it would convey a sense of confidence to the market, confidence 
that they, indeed, had achieved amazing success in turning paper into 
gold.
  Increasing gold prices historically are viewed as an indicator of 
distrust in paper currency. This recent effort was not a whole lot 
different than the U.S. Treasury selling gold at $35 an ounce in the 
1960s in an attempt to convince the world the dollar was as sound and 
as good as gold.
  Even during the Depression, one of Roosevelt's first acts was to 
remove free-market pricing as an indication of a flawed monetary system 
by making it illegal for American citizens to own gold. Economic law 
eventually limited that effort, as it did in the early 1970s, when our 
Treasury and the IMF tried to fix the price of gold by dumping tons 
into the market to dampen the enthusiasm of those seeking a safe haven 
for a falling dollar after gold ownership was relegalized.
  Once again, the effort between 1980 and 2000 to fool the market as to 
the true value of the dollar proved unsuccessful. In the past 5 years, 
the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by more than 50 percent. 
You just cannot fool all the people all the time, even with the power 
of the mighty printing press and the money-creating system of the 
Federal Reserve.

                              {time}  2145

  Even with all the shortcomings of the fiat monetary system, dollar 
influence thrived. The results seemed beneficial, but gross distortions 
built into the system remained. And true to form, Washington 
politicians are only too anxious to solve the problems cropping up with 
window dressing while failing to understand and deal with the 
underlying flawed policy. Protectionism, fixing exchange rates, 
punitive tariffs, politically motivated sanctions, corporate subsidies, 
international trade management, price controls, interest rate and wage 
controls, super-nationalist sentiments, threat of force, and even war 
are resorted to, all to solve the problems artificially created by a 
deeply flawed monetary and economic system.
  In the short run, the issuer of a fiat reserve currency can accrue 
great economic benefits. In the long run, it poses a threat to the 
country issuing the world currency. In this case, that is the United 
States. As long as foreign countries take our dollars in return for 
real goods, we come out ahead. This is a benefit many in Congress fail 
to recognize as they bash China for maintaining a positive trade 
balance with us. But this leads to a loss of manufacturing jobs to 
overseas markets as we become more dependent on others and less self-
sufficient. Foreign countries accumulate our dollars due to their high 
savings rates and graciously lend them back to us at low interest rates 
to finance our excessive consumption and our wars.
  It sounds like a great deal for everyone, except the time will come 
when our dollars, due to their depreciation, will be received less 
enthusiastically or even be rejected by foreign countries. That could 
create a whole new ball game and force us to pay a price for living 
beyond our means and our production. The shift in sentiment regarding 
the dollar has already started, but the worst is yet to come.
  The agreement with OPEC in the 1970s to price oil in dollars has 
provided tremendous artificial strength to the dollar as the preeminent 
reserve currency. This has created a universal demand for the dollar 
and soaks up the huge number of new dollars generated each year. Last 
year alone, M3 increased by over $700 billion. The artificial demand 
for our dollar, along with our military might, places us in the unique 
position to ``rule'' the world without productive work or savings and 
without limits on consumer spending or deficits. The problem is it 
cannot last.
  Price inflation is raising its ugly head, and the NASDAQ bubble, 
generated by easy money, has burst. The housing bubble likewise created 
is deflating. Gold prices have doubled, and Federal spending is out of 
sight, with zero political will to rein it in. The trade deficit last 
year was over $728 billion. A $2 trillion war is raging, and plans are 
being laid to expand the war into Iran and possibly Syria. The only 
restraining force will be the world's rejection of the dollar. It is 
bound to come and create conditions worse than 1979-1980, which 
required 21 percent interest rates to correct. But everything possible 
will be done to protect the dollar in the meantime. We have a shared 
interest with those who hold our dollars to keep the whole charade 
going.
  Greenspan, in his first speech after leaving the Fed, said that gold 
prices were up because of concern about terrorism and not because of 
monetary concerns or because he created too many dollars during his 
tenure. Gold has to be discredited and the dollar propped up. Even when 
the dollar comes under serious attack by market forces, the central 
banks and the IMF will surely do everything conceivable to soak up the 
dollars in hope of restoring stability. Eventually, they will fail.
  Most importantly, the dollar/oil relationship has to be maintained to 
keep the dollar as the preeminent currency. Any attack on this 
relationship will be forcefully challenged, as it already has been.
  In November, 2000, Saddam Hussein demanded euros for his oil. His 
arrogance was a threat to the dollar; his lack of any military might 
was never a threat. At the first Cabinet meeting with the new 
administration in 2001, as reported by Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, 
the major topic was how we could get rid of Saddam Hussein though there 
was no evidence whatsoever he posed a threat to us. This deep concern 
for Saddam Hussein surprised and shocked O'Neill.
  It is now common knowledge that the immediate reaction of the 
administration after 9/11 revolved around how they could connect Saddam 
Hussein to the attacks to justify an invasion and overthrow of his 
government. Even with no evidence of any connection to 9/11 or evidence 
of weapons of mass destruction, public and congressional support was 
generated through distortions and flat-out misrepresentations of the 
facts to justify overthrowing Saddam Hussein.
  There was no public talk of removing Saddam Hussein because of his 
attack on the integrity of the dollar as a reserve currency by selling 
his oil in euros, yet many believe this was the reason for our 
obsession with Iraq. I doubt it was the only reason, but it may well 
have played a significant role in our motivation to wage war. Within a 
very short period after the military victory in Iraq, all Iraqi oil 
sales were carried out in dollars. The euro was immediately abandoned.
  In 2001, Venezuela's ambassador to Russia spoke of Venezuela's 
switching to the euro for all their oil sales. Within a year, there was 
a coup attempt against Chavez, reportedly with assistance from our CIA.
  After these attempts to nudge the euro toward replacing the dollar as 
the world's reserve currency were met with resistance, the sharp fall 
of the dollar against the euro was reversed. These events may well have 
played a significant role in maintaining dollar dominance.
  It has become clear the U.S. administration was sympathetic to those 
who plotted the overthrow of Chavez and was embarrassed by its failure. 
The fact that Chavez was democratically elected had little influence on 
which side we supported. Now a new attempt is being made against the 
petrodollar system. Iran, another member of the ``Axis of Evil,'' has 
announced her plans to initiate an oil bourse in March of this year. 
Guess what? The oil sales will be priced in euros, not dollars.
  Most Americans forgot how our policies have systematically and 
needlessly antagonized the Iranians over the years. In 1953, the CIA 
helped overthrow a democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh and 
installed the authoritarian Shah, who was friendly to the U.S. The 
Iranians were still fuming over this when the hostages were seized in 
1979. Our alliance with Saddam Hussein in his invasion of Iran in the 
early 1980s did not help matters and obviously did not do much for our 
relationship with Saddam Hussein. The administration's announcement in 
2001 that Iran was part of the Axis of Evil did not improve the 
diplomatic relationship between our two countries.
  Recent threats over nuclear power, while ignoring the fact that they 
are

[[Page H321]]

surrounded by countries with nuclear weapons, does not seem to register 
with those who continue to provoke Iran. With what most Muslims 
perceive as our war against Islam and this recent history, there is 
little wonder why Iran might choose to harm America by undermining the 
dollar. Iran, like Iraq, has zero capability to attack us, but that did 
not stop us from turning Saddam Hussein into a modern-day Hitler ready 
to take over the world. Now Iran, especially since she has made plans 
for pricing oil in euros, has been on the receiving end of a propaganda 
war not unlike that waged against Iraq before our invasion.
  It is not likely that maintaining dollar supremacy was the only 
motivating factor for the war against Iraq nor for agitating against 
Iran. Though the real reasons for going to war are complex, we now know 
the reasons given before the war started, like the presence of weapons 
of mass destruction and Saddam's connection to 9/11, were false.
  The dollar's importance is obvious, but this does not diminish the 
influence of the distinct plans laid out years ago by the 
neoconservatives to remake the Middle East. Israel's influence as well 
as that of the Christian Zionists likewise played a role in prosecuting 
this war. Protecting our oil supplies has influenced our Middle East 
policy for decades.
  But the truth is that paying the bills for this aggressive 
intervention is impossible the old-fashioned way, with more taxes, more 
savings, and more production by the American people. Much of the 
expense of the Persian Gulf War in 1991 was shouldered by many of our 
willing allies. That is not so today. Now more than ever, the dollar 
hegemony, its dominance as the world's reserve currency, is required to 
finance our huge war expenditures. This $2 trillion never-ending war 
must be paid for one way or another. Dollar hegemony provides the 
vehicle to do just that.
  For the most part, the true victims are not aware of how they pay the 
bills. The license to create money out of thin air allows the bills to 
be paid through price inflation. American citizens as well as average 
citizens of Japan and China and other countries suffer from price 
inflation, which represents the tax that pays the bills for our 
military adventures. That is, until the fraud is discovered and the 
foreign producers decide not to take dollars nor hold them very long in 
payment for those goods. Everything possible is done to prevent the 
fraud of the monetary system from being exposed to the masses who 
suffer from it. If oil markets replace dollars with euros, it would in 
time curtail our ability to continue to print, without restraint, the 
world's reserve currency.
  It is an unbelievable benefit to us to import valuable goods and 
export depreciating dollars. The exporting countries have become 
addicted to our purchases for their economic growth. This dependency 
makes them allies in continuing the fraud, and their participation 
keeps the dollar's value artificially high. If this system were 
workable long term, American citizens would never have to work again. 
We, too, could enjoy ``bread and circuses'' just as the Romans did, but 
their gold finally ran out and the inability of Rome to continue to 
plunder conquered nations brought an end to her empire.
  The same thing will happen to us if we do not change our ways. Though 
we do not occupy foreign countries to directly plunder, we nevertheless 
have spread our troops across 130 nations of the world. Our intense 
effort to spread our power in the oil-rich Middle East is not a 
coincidence. But, unlike the old days, we do not declare direct 
ownership of the natural resources. We just insist that we can buy what 
we want and pay for it with our paper money. Any country that 
challenges our authority does so at great risk.
  Once again, Congress has bought into the war propaganda against Iran 
just as it did against Iraq. Arguments are now made for attacking Iran 
economically and militarily if necessary. These arguments are based on 
the same false reasons given for the ill-fated and costly occupation of 
Iraq.
  Our whole economic system depends on continuing the current monetary 
arrangement, which means recycling the dollar is crucial. Currently, we 
borrow over $700 billion every year from our gracious benefactors, who 
work hard and take our paper for their goods. Then we borrow all the 
money we need to secure the empire, which includes the entire DOD 
budget of $450 billion, plus more. The military might we enjoy becomes 
the backing of our currency. There are no other countries that can 
challenge our military superiority, and therefore they have little 
choice but to accept the dollars we declare are today's ``gold.'' This 
is why countries that challenge the system, like Iraq, Iran, and 
Venezuela, become targets of our plans for regime change.
  Ironically, dollar superiority depends on our strong military, and 
our strong military depends on the dollar. As long as foreign 
recipients take our dollars for real goods and are willing to finance 
our extravagant consumption and militarism, the status quo will 
continue, regardless of how huge our foreign debt and current account 
deficit become.
  But real threats come from our political adversaries who are capable 
of confronting us militarily yet are not bashful about confronting us 
economically. That is why we see the new challenge from Iran being 
taken so seriously. The urgent arguments about Iran's posing a military 
threat to the security of the United States are no more plausible than 
the false charges levied against Iraq. Yet there is no effort to resist 
this march to confrontation by those who grandstand for political 
reasons against the Iraq War.
  It seems that the people and Congress are easily persuaded by the 
jingoism of the preemptive war promoters. It is only after the cost of 
human life and dollars are tallied up that the people object to unwise 
militarism.
  The strange thing is that the failure in Iraq is now apparent to a 
large number of Americans, yet they and Congress are acquiescing to the 
call for a needless and dangerous confrontation with Iran.
  But then again our failure to find Osama bin Laden and destroy his 
network did not dissuade us from taking on Iraqis in a war totally 
unrelated to 9/11. Concern for pricing oil only in dollars helps 
explain our willingness to drop everything and teach Saddam Hussein a 
lesson for his defiance in demanding euros for oil.

                              {time}  2200

  Once again, there is the urgent call for sanctions and threats of 
force against Iran at the precise time Iran is opening a new oil 
exchange with all transactions in Euros.
  Using force to compel people to accept money without real value can 
only work for a short time. It ultimately leads to economic 
dislocation, both domestic and international, and always ends with a 
price to be paid. The economic law that honest exchange demands only 
things of real value as currency cannot be repealed. The chaos that one 
day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money 
will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is 
approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold or its equivalent 
for their oil rather than dollars or Euros. The sooner the better.


              Need For Reform In Light of Lobbying Scandal

  Mr. Speaker, I would like to now switch topics and address another 
subject, and this is regarding the need for reform in light of the 
recent lobbying scandal.
  Mr. Speaker, the Abramoff scandal has been described as the biggest 
Washington scandal ever, bigger than Watergate, bigger than ABSCAM, 
bigger than Koreagate, bigger than the House banking scandal, bigger 
than Teapot Dome. Possibly so. It is certainly serious and significant.
  It has prompted urgent proposals of suggested reforms to deal with 
the mess. If only we had more rules and regulations, more reporting 
requirements and stricter enforcement of laws, the American people will 
be assured we mean business. Ethics and character will return to the 
Halls of Congress. It is argued that new champions of reform should be 
elected to leadership positions to show how serious we are about 
dealing with the crisis of confidence generated by the Abramoff affair. 
Then all will be well.
  But it is not so simple. Maybe what we have seen so far is just the 
tip of the iceberg and the insidious crisis staring us in the face that 
we refuse to properly identify and deal with.

[[Page H322]]

  It has been suggested we need to change course and correct the way 
Congress is run. A good idea, but if we merely tinker with current 
attitudes about what role the Federal Government ought to play in our 
lives, it won't do much to solve the ethics crisis.
  True reform is impossible without addressing the immorality of wealth 
redistribution. Merely electing new leaders and writing more rules to 
regulate those who petition Congress will achieve nothing.
  Could it be that we are all looking in the wrong places for our 
solution to a recurring, constant, and pervasive corruption in 
government? Perhaps some of us in Congress are mistaken about the true 
problem. Perhaps others deliberately distract us from exposing the 
truth about how miserably corrupt the budget process in Congress is.
  Others simply are in a State of denial. But the denial will come to 
an end as the Abramoff scandal reveals more and more. It eventually 
will expose the scandal of the ages, how and to what degree the 
American people have become indebted by the totally irresponsible 
spending habits of the U.S. Congress as encouraged by successive 
administrations, condoned by our courts, and enjoyed by the recipients 
of the largesse.
  This system of government is coming to an end, a fact that 
significantly contributes to the growing anxiety of most Americans, 
especially those who pay the bills and receive little in return from 
the corrupt system that has evolved over the decades.
  Believe me, if everybody benefited equally, there would be scant 
outcry over a little bribery and influence peddling. As our country 
grows poorer and more indebted, fewer people benefit. The beneficiaries 
are not the hard-working, honest people who pay the taxes. The groups 
that master the system of lobbying and special interest legislation are 
the ones who truly benefit.
  The steady erosion of real wealth in this country and the dependency 
on government generated by welfare-ism and warfare-ism presents itself 
as the crisis of the ages. Lobbying scandals and the need for new 
leadership are mere symptoms of a much, much deeper problem.
  There are quite a few reasons a relatively free country allows itself 
to fall into such an ethical and financial mess. One major contributing 
factor for the past 100 years is our serious misunderstanding of the 
dangers of pure democracy.
  The Founders detested democracy and avoided the use of the word in 
all the early documents. Today, most Americans accept without question 
a policy of sacrificing life, property and dollars to force democracy 
on a country 6,000 miles away. This tells us how little opposition 
there is to democracy. No one questions the principle that a majority 
electorate should be allowed to rule the country, dictate rights, and 
redistribute wealth. Our system of democracy has come to mean 
worshiping the notion that a majority vote for the distribution of 
government largesse, loot confiscated from the American people through 
an immoral tax system, is morally and constitutionally acceptable.
  Under these circumstances, it is no wonder a system of runaway 
lobbying and special interests has developed. Add this to the military 
industrial complex that developed over the decades due to a foreign 
policy of perpetual war and foreign military intervention, and we 
shouldn't wonder why there is such a powerful motivation to learn the 
tricks of the lobbying trade and why former Members of Congress and 
their aides become such high-priced commodities.
  Buying influence is much more lucrative than working and producing 
for a living. The trouble is in the process; the process invites moral 
corruption. The dollars involved grow larger and larger because of the 
deficit financing and inflation that pure democracy always generates.
  Dealing with lobbying scandals while ignoring the scandal of 
unconstitutional runaway government will solve nothing. If people truly 
believe that reform is the solution through regulating lobbyists and 
increasing congressional reporting requirements, the real problem will 
be ignored and never identified. This reform only makes things worse.
  Greater regulation of lobbyists is a dangerous and unnecessary 
proposition. If one expects to solve a problem without correctly 
identifying its source, the problem persists. The first amendment 
clearly states ``Congress shall make no laws respecting the right of 
the people to petition the government for a redress of grievances.'' 
That means no law.
  The problem of special interest government that breeds corruption 
comes from our lack of respect for the Constitution in the first place. 
So what do we do? We further violate the Constitution, rather than 
examine it for guidance as to the proper role of the Federal 
Government.
  Laws addressing bribery, theft, and fraud already on the books are 
adequate to deal with the criminal activities associated with lobbying. 
New laws and regulations are unnecessary.
  The theft that the Federal Government commits against its citizens 
and the power that Congress has assumed illegally are the real crimes 
that need to be dealt with. In this regard, we truly need a 
new direction: get rid of the evil tax system, the fraudulent monetary 
system and the power of the government to run our lives, the economy 
and the world, and the Abramoff types would be exposed for the mere 
gnats they are. There would be a lot less of them since the incentive 
to buy politicians would be removed.

  Even under today's flawed system of democratic government, which is 
dedicated to redistributing property by force, a lot could be 
accomplished if government attracted men and women of good will and 
character. Members could just refuse to yield to the temptations of 
office and reject the path to a lobbying career.
  But it seems once government adopts the rules of immorality, some of 
the participants in the process yield to the temptation as well, 
succumbing to the belief that the new moral standards are acceptable.
  Today, though, any new rules designed to restrain special interest 
favoritism will only push the money further under the table.
  Too much is at stake. Corporations, bureaucrats, lobbyists and 
politicians have grown accustomed to the system and have learned to 
work within it to survive. Only when the trough is empty will the 
country wake up. Eliminating earmarks in the budget will not solve the 
problem.
  Comparing the current scandal to the big one, the Abramoff types are 
petty thieves. The government deals in trillions of dollars, the 
Abramoffs in mere millions. Take a look at the undeclared war we are 
bogged down in 6,000 miles from our shore. We have spent $300 billion 
already, but Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz argues that the war 
will actually cost between $1 trillion and $2 trillion when it is all 
over. That is trillions, not billions. Even that figure is 
unpredictable, because we may be in Iraq for another year or 10. Who 
knows.
  Considering the war had nothing to do with our national security, we 
are talking big bucks being wasted in lining the pockets of well-
connected American corporations. Waste, fraud, stupidity, and no-bid 
contracts characterize the process; and it is all done in the name of 
patriotism and national security. Dissenters are accused of supporting 
the enemy. Now, this is a ripoff that a little tinkering with House 
rules and restraints on lobbyists won't do much to solve.
  Think of how this undeclared war has contributed to our national 
deficit, undermined military preparedness, antagonized our allies, and 
exposed us to an even greater threat from those who resent our 
destructive occupation. Claiming we have no interest in the oil of the 
entire Middle East hardly helps our credibility throughout the world.
  The system of special interest government that has evolved over the 
last several decades has given us a national debt of over $8 trillion, 
a debt that now expands by over $600 billion every year. Our total 
obligations are estimated to be between $15 trillion and $20 trillion. 
Most people realize that the Social Security system, the Medicare 
system and the new prescription drug program are unfunded. Thousands of 
private pension funds are now being dumped on the U.S. Government and 
American taxpayers. We are borrowing over $700 billion each year from 
foreigners to finance this extravagance, and we now

[[Page H323]]

qualify as the greatest international debtor Nation in history.
  Excessive consumption using borrowed money is hardly the way to 
secure a sound economy. Instead of reining in government spending, 
Congress remains oblivious to the financial dangers and panders to 
special interests by offering no resistance whatsoever to every request 
for new spending. Congress spends $2.7 trillion annually in an attempt 
to satisfy everyone's demands. The system has generated over $200 
trillion in derivatives.
  These problems can't be addressed with token leadership changes and 
tinkering with the budget. A new and dramatic direction is required.
  As current policy further erodes the budget, special interests and 
Members of Congress become even more aggressive in their efforts to 
capture a piece of the dwindling economic pie. That success is the 
measure of effectiveness that guarantees a Member's reelection.
  The biggest ripoff of all, the paper money system that is morally and 
economically equivalent to counterfeiting, is never questioned. It is 
the deceptive tool for transferring billions from the unsuspecting poor 
and middle class to the special-interest rich, and in the process the 
deficit-propelled budget process supports the spending demands of all 
the special interests, left and right, welfare and warfare, while 
delaying payment to another day and sometimes even to another 
generation.
  The enormous sums spent each year to support the influential special 
interests expand exponentially and no one really asks how it is 
accomplished. Raising taxes to balance the budget is out of the 
question, and rightfully so. Foreigners have been generous in their 
willingness to loan us most of what we need, but even that generosity 
is limited and may well diminish in the future.
  But if the Federal Reserve did not pick up the slack and create huge 
amounts of new credit and money out of thin air, interest rates would 
rise and call a halt to the charade. The people who suffer from a 
depreciated dollar don't understand why they suffer, while the people 
who benefit promote the corrupt system. The wealthy clean up on Wall 
Street and the unsophisticated buy in at the market tops. Wealth is 
transferred from one group to another, and it is all related to the 
system that allows politicians and the central banks to create money 
out of thin air. It is literally legalized counterfeiting.
  Is it any wonder jobs go overseas? True capital only comes from 
savings, and Americans save nothing. We only borrow and consume. A 
counterfeiter has no incentive to take his newly created money and 
build factories. The incentive for Americans is to buy consumers goods 
from other countries whose people are willing to save and invest in 
their factories and jobs. The only way we can continue this charade is 
to borrow excess dollars back from the foreign governments who sell us 
goods and perpetuate the pretense of wealth that we enjoy.
  The system of money contributes significantly to the problems of 
illegal immigration. On the surface, immigrants escaping poverty in 
Mexico and Central America come here for the economic opportunity that 
our economy offers. However, the social services they receive, 
including education and medical benefits, as well as the jobs they get, 
are dependent on our perpetual indebtedness to foreign countries. When 
the burden of debt becomes excessive, this incentive to seek prosperity 
here in the United States will change.
  The prime beneficiaries of a paper money system are those who use the 
money early, governments, politicians, bankers, international 
corporations and the military industrial complex. Those who suffer most 
are the ones at the end of the money chain, the people forced to use 
depreciated dollars to buy urgently needed goods and services to 
survive. And guess what? By then, their money is worth less, prices 
soar, and their standard of living goes down.

                              {time}  2215

  The consequences of this system, fully in place for the past 34 
years, are astronomical and impossible to accurately measure. 
Industries go offshore, and the jobs follow. Price inflation eats away 
at the middle class and deficits soar, while spending escalates rapidly 
as Congress hopes to keep up with the problems it created.
  The remaining wealth that we struggle to hold on to is based on debt, 
future tax revenues, and our ability to manufacture new tax dollars 
without restraint.
  There is only one problem. It all depends on trust in the dollar, 
especially by foreign holders and purchasers. This trust will end, and 
signs of the beginning of the end are already appearing.
  During this administration, the dollar has suffered severely as a 
consequence of the policy of inflating the currency to pay our bills. 
The dollar price of gold has more than doubled. This means the dollar 
has depreciated in terms of gold, the time-honored and reliable 
measurement of a nation's currency, by an astounding 55 percent. The 
long-term economic health of a nation is measured by the soundness of 
its currency. Once Rome converted from a republic to an empire, she 
depreciated her currency to pay the bills. This eventually led to 
Rome's downfall. That is exactly what America is facing unless we 
change our ways.
  Now, this is a real scandal worth worrying about. Since it is not yet 
on Washington's radar screen, no attempt at addressing the problem is 
being made. Instead, we will be sure to make those the Constitution 
terms petitioners to redress their grievances fill out more forms. We 
will make government officials attend more ethics courses so they can 
learn how to be more ethical.
  A free nation as it moves towards authoritarianism tolerates and 
hides a lot of the abuse in the system. The human impulse for wealth 
creation is hard to destroy, but in the end it will happen here if true 
reform of our economic, monetary, and political system is not 
accomplished.
  Whether government programs are promoted for good causes, helping the 
poor, or bad causes, permitting a military industrial complex to 
capitalize on war profits, the principles of the market are undermined. 
Eventually, nearly everyone becomes dependent on the system of 
deficits, borrowing, printing press money, and the special interest 
budget process that distributes the loot by majority vote.
  Today, most business interests and the poor are dependent on 
government handouts. Education and medical care is almost completely 
controlled and regulated by an overpowering central government. We have 
come to accept our role as world policeman and nation builder with 
little question despite the bad results and inability to pay the bills.
  The question is, what will it take to bring about the changes in 
policy needed to reverse this dangerous trend? The answer is, quite a 
lot; and, unfortunately, it is not on the horizon. It probably will not 
come until there is a rejection of the dollar as the safest and 
strongest world currency and a return to commodity money like gold and 
silver to return confidence.
  The Abramoff-type scandals come and go in Washington, patched over 
with grandiose schemes and reform that amount to nothing more than 
government and congressional mischief. But our efforts should be 
directed toward eliminating the greatest of all frauds, printing press 
money that creates the political conditions breeding the vultures and 
leaches who feed off the corrupt system.
  Counterfeiting money never creates wealth. It only steals wealth from 
the unsuspecting. The Federal Reserve creation of money is exactly the 
same. Increasing the dollars in circulation can only diminish the value 
of each existing dollar. Only production and jobs can make a country 
wealthy in the long run. Today, it is obvious our country is becoming 
poorer and more uneasy as our jobs and capital go overseas.
  The Abramoff scandal can serve a useful purpose if we put it in the 
context of the entire system that encourages corruption. If it is seen 
as an isolated case of individual corruption and not an expected 
consequence of big government run amok, little good will come of it. If 
we understand how our system of government intervenes in our personal 
lives, the entire economy and the internal affairs of other nations 
around the world, we can understand how it generates the conditions 
where lobbyists thrive.
  Only then will some good come of it. Only then will we understand 
that undermining the first amendment right of

[[Page H324]]

people to petition the government is hardly a solution to this much 
more serious and pervasive problem.
  If we are inclined to improve conditions we should give serious 
consideration to the following policy reforms, reforms the American 
people who cherish liberty would enthusiastically support. Let us have 
no more No Child Left Behind legislation. Let us have no more 
prescription drugs programs. No more undeclared wars. No more nation 
building. No more acting as the world policeman. No more deficits. No 
more excessive spending everywhere. No more political and partisan 
resolutions designed to embarrass those who may well have legitimate 
and honest disagreements with current policy. No inferences that 
disagreeing with policy is unpatriotic or disloyal to the country. No 
more pretense of budget reforms while ignoring off-budget spending in 
the ever-growing 14 appropriations bills.
  Cut funding for corporate welfare, foreign aid, international NGOs, 
defense contractors, the military industrial complex, and rich 
corporate farmers before cutting welfare for the poor at home. No more 
unconstitutional intrusions into the privacy of law-abiding American 
citizens. Reconsider the hysterical demands for security over liberty 
by curtailing the ever-expanding oppressive wars on drugs, tax 
violators and gun ownership.
  Finally, why not try something novel like having Congress act as an 
independent and equal branch of government? Restore the principle of 
the separation of powers so that we can perform our duty to provide 
checks and balances on an executive branch and an accommodating 
judiciary that spies on Americans, glorifies the welfare state, fights 
undeclared wars, and enormously increases the national debt.
  Congress was not meant to be a rubber stamp. It is time for a new 
direction.

                          ____________________



What explains elite contempt for Joe Rogan? – System Update with Glenn Greenwald

35:27
great you know there’s just tremendous
35:29
homogeneity now in in american culture
35:32
right
35:32
uh it’s the idea that these are the
35:34
types of people
35:36
who should be both in charge
35:39
of talking about liberal left
35:42
politics and who should really be in
35:44
charge of the country in general there
35:45
are people who right now have cultural
35:46
hegemony in this country
35:48
right um and it’s the idea that these
35:51
people
35:52
are sort of the these are the people who
35:55
embody
35:56
what should be american morality right
35:58
now right these are the people who
36:00
embody what that is and
36:01
should hold the cultural level levers of
36:04
power in the country and who
36:05
should have the power to be speaking on
36:09
uh the important topics of the day
36:12
so that’s sort of what i mean by that
36:14
what is joe what does joe rogan
36:16
lack on that list of
36:20
attributes that people think define
36:22
those who should be
36:23
exerting influence and power over our
36:25
discourse in politics
36:27
well i think what he lacks is i mean
36:30
the most important thing he lacks is
36:33
the um willingness to exclude everyone
36:36
else from the debate who isn’t a part of
36:39
that culture i mean i think that’s
36:40
probably the primary thing that enrages
36:43
them
36:43
is that he i mean one of the reasons why
36:47
his show is so popular is that it’s a
36:49
really powerful cross-pollination
36:51
of ideas of different fields of
36:53
different
36:54
industries people from all these
36:56
different walks of life
36:58
um it’s you know it’s it’s a great
37:00
reflection of internet culture you know
37:01
one of the reasons why the show is so
37:03
popular is that it kind of operates on
37:04
internet time
37:06
right as opposed to you know cable news
37:08
that
37:09
is kind of really slow to pick up on
37:11
things probably because of its older
37:12
demographic whereas
37:14
joe rogan is able to seize on something
37:16
that appeared on a message board
37:17
yesterday right and i mean even if you
37:19
watch his show
37:20
um they’re able to fact that fat check
37:23
themselves in real time right he’s got
37:25
his sidekick there jamie who
37:27
pulls something up to verify whether
37:29
what joe
37:30
what joe just said is totally full of
37:32
i mean that’s not something you’re
37:33
going to see chris hayes do
37:35
or sean hannity do right like that’s
37:37
just not the way it works
37:38
everyone’s online today i mean the
37:41
entire country is essentially getting
37:42
email
37:43
and facebook and all that jazz like why
37:45
bother
37:46
doing it in this particular medium that
37:49
has an inherent time constraint
37:51
well you’re right i mean the internet
37:53
has revolutionized
37:55
politics and in many ways good ways we
37:58
use
37:59
our social media our email list which is
38:01
very large
38:02
we every day we’re sending out stuff and
38:04
other candidates are doing it the same
38:05
way
38:05
but television still has a very
38:07
important role to be playing um and so
38:09
probably it’s it’s partly that uh and
38:12
it’s
38:12
and it’s partly you know his his
38:15
willingness
38:16
to transgress on issues that are
38:19
considered
38:20
sacred right not necessarily obviously
38:23
the big one nowadays is the trans issue
38:25
the transgenderism issue
38:26
he’s willing to talk about that and he’s
38:28
willing to bring in
38:30
um perspectives on it that right now
38:33
liberals are just have
38:34
zero zero tolerance for um and so
38:38
so let me let me let’s stop there for a
38:40
second so
38:42
you know i’m i’m i’m i to kind of
38:46
present what i think would be the
38:49
best or strongest case that a liberal
38:52
would make for why joe rogan ought to be
38:54
regarded
38:56
certainly not as an ally and even as an
38:58
enemy
38:59
and one is the one that you just put
39:01
your finger on so this week there was a
39:03
report in vice
39:05
that employees of sportify which is the
39:08
platform that essentially just paid joe
39:10
rogan
39:11
in excess of 100 million dollars for his
39:14
show exclusively to appear there
39:16
are upset um and it came from
39:20
how they what they described themselves
39:22
as being lgbtq
39:24
a i plus employees
39:28
and allies so not just the lgbtqai plus
39:33
employees but also their allies are
39:36
upset because
39:38
in particular he has had on his show
39:41
number one an author who has argued
39:45
that there are times when young people
39:49
are influenced to believe
39:53
that they have gender dysphoria and to
39:55
even begin
39:56
irreversible transitions when in fact
40:00
they don’t have gender dysphoria because
40:02
of the culture that is encouraging them
40:05
to think that to what
40:06
in other words questioning whether young
40:08
people are being misdiagnosed
40:10
with gender dysphoria who don’t in fact
40:12
have it and there are definitely people
40:14
who
40:14
have said that they have been that
40:16
they’ve gone through that process only
40:17
to realize that
40:19
that wasn’t their issue so that was one
40:22
of the problems is just
40:23
airing an author who did research and
40:26
science
40:27
who said that to some extent people are
40:30
being misdiagnosed
40:31
and then i guess the other one was him
40:33
being an mma fan
40:35
a fighting fan as you alluded to earlier
40:38
questioning whether it’s fair
40:40
to allow uh trans women who
40:44
live their lives uh as biological men
40:47
who went through puberty as biological
40:49
men who developed muscle mass and
40:50
hormones and
40:52
um the entire physiology of a man to
40:55
then
40:56
transition and compete with cis women
41:00
something that people like martina
41:01
navratilova who’s been a long time
41:04
advocate for trans people have asked as
41:06
well and that
41:07
essentially this demonstrates his
41:09
willingness not just to air these
41:11
views but to even kind of wonder them
41:13
himself
41:14
suggests that he’s transphobic which is
41:16
a form of bigotry
41:18
and we ought not to have any kind of
41:21
alliance with
41:22
or support for people who are bigots
41:25
that’s one of the
41:27
cases that is made against joe oregon
41:29
why isn’t that valid
41:30
so i mean it goes to the point that i
41:32
that the question you just asked
41:34
me and the point that i made which is
41:36
that you know
41:38
what makes what makes it what makes joe
41:41
rogan
41:41
seen as not an ally and you know
41:45
what makes him come across as not an
41:47
ally is that he is not
41:48
actively engaged in the culture war
41:50
right i mean what’s so crucial to people
41:53
who are actually
41:54
actively engaged in liberal culture war
41:56
is that you have to be
41:58
actively seen as saying you know this is
42:00
our line and anyone who does not
42:03
um hew to this line is the enemy right
42:06
and if you’re not
42:06
a part if you’re not a part of the
42:08
solution you’re a part of the problem
42:09
essentially
42:10
and so when joe rogan someone like joe
42:12
rogan comes along and says hey there are
42:14
some interesting issues here hey
42:16
let’s talk about this hey there are some
42:18
certain scientific studies
42:19
that immediately raises all the alarms
42:22
in people’s heads
42:24
saying that uh oh this is not one of us
42:26
this is not one of the allies right like
42:28
this isn’t someone who is going
42:30
to be doing the work that we define
42:32
ourselves by
42:33
the work of advancing the culture war
42:37
right and if you’re not advancing the
42:39
culture war
42:40
then you’re as good as the enemy if not
42:42
the enemy is ironic right because like
42:44
george george bush’s
42:45
911 formulation that liberals
42:48
incessantly not just mock but we’re
42:51
very alarmed by was that you know
42:54
every country has a choice you’re with
42:56
us or you’re with the terrorists it’s
42:58
one or the other there’s no middle
43:00
ground if you’re not
43:02
actively supporting what we’re doing
43:03
we’re going to regard you as an
43:05
ally of the terrorists or even one of
43:08
the terrorists and that means that
43:10
for example in the culture war you
43:13
become the enemy not merely by
43:16
advocating against trans rights but
43:20
questioning the premises the science
43:23
behind the implications of these very
43:25
profound social changes
43:27
that a lot of people are advocating
43:29
right and and that’s what you saw from
43:30
this vice article right
43:32
um it was actually a perfect case study
43:35
i mean first of all the headline said
43:37
joe rogan’s transphobic episode or
43:40
something like that or
43:41
transphobic joe rogan you know it
43:43
clearly editorialized before you even
43:45
you didn’t i mean you didn’t even have
43:47
to read the article right like you you
43:48
just read the headline and you know
43:50
exactly what the article is saying
43:52
but beyond that it also completely
43:55
sidestepped the debate as we’re just
43:56
saying now right
43:58
this episode that they’re talking about
43:59
that that’s causing all the drama
44:01
internally and spotify if you watch it
44:04
there’s
44:04
two important things to know about it
44:06
first of all before
44:08
anything happened and again the reason
44:10
why this stuff works so well is because
44:12
no one actually listens to the episodes
44:13
who care involved in this
44:15
in this war right in these battles
44:16
because or they see
44:18
like one minute chosen snippets
44:20
deliberately selected to
44:22
cast it in the responsible light right
44:26
right exactly but so he starts off right
44:28
off the bat and he’s
44:29
and he says this episode is not about
44:31
adults right
44:32
this is not about trans adults we
44:34
completely believe in trans adult rights
44:37
we believe in their identities
44:38
we are completely supportive of them um
44:41
i joe rogan and completely a supporter
44:45
of trans adults right so that’s
44:46
important to set aside
44:48
um because right off the bat you know
44:50
that he’s not talking about
44:52
tran the idea of transgenderism in
44:54
general obviously right
44:56
you can’t i’ve heard him say before i’ve
44:58
heard him say before
45:00
not only do i fully support the complete
45:04
range and panoply of
45:07
robust equal legal rights for trans
45:09
people
45:10
and not only do i believe that they have
45:12
the absolute right to live their lives
45:14
with full and complete dignity and
45:15
liberty
45:16
which is consistent with his overall
45:18
philosophy i’ve heard him say
45:20
i have nothing but love in my heart for
45:22
trans people in fact
45:23
admiration for people who are willing to
45:27
defy societal convention to be
45:29
who they are so it’s almost like even on
45:32
the question of trans issues
45:34
from a liberal perspective he’s way
45:38
ahead of
45:39
the vast majority of where the
45:40
population is in terms of how he talks
45:42
about it
45:43
um so you’re right he he carves out this
45:47
kind of
45:48
you know um territory that he’s saying
45:51
i’m not
45:52
questioning the rights fully of trans
45:55
adults to live a complete and full
45:57
life filled with dignity and love um
46:01
so what is it that that became
46:02
problematic
46:04
so what became problematic is that you
46:06
know the rest of the show
46:08
is devoted to the issue of children
46:11
who you know children teenagers
46:15
people going through adolescence who
46:18
come across the idea of transgenderism
46:21
and think that maybe transgenderism has
46:24
some kind of answers
46:26
for what may be the natural kind of
46:29
patterns and challenges that children go
46:32
through in young age
46:33
um you know normally and also you know
46:36
in these days
46:37
we’re suffering through a mental health
46:38
crisis right one that probably
46:40
even preceded um coded but has just been
46:44
amped up
46:44
greatly during covid right but generally
46:47
the
46:47
the idea and the author of the book who
46:49
i will say you know the the author of
46:51
the book the title
46:52
was a little bit sensationalist and i
46:54
think that’s probably driving a
46:56
little bit you know it’s something like
46:57
they’re coming for our daughters or
46:58
something like that which you know
47:00
listen i if i was advising someone to
47:02
write a book that you want well received
47:03
broadly
47:04
you might do a better job with the title
47:06
but and that’s not and that’s not a book
47:09
written by joe it’s not a book written
47:10
by joe rogan it’s a book written
47:14
not always favorably right he
47:16
interrogated that person on
47:17
a lot of those premises exactly and he
47:20
did and he did do a good job of actually
47:22
kind of talking about the cover and
47:23
saying well why did you go with this
47:24
cover
47:25
and i mean it was he did this job on
47:27
that end actually right
47:28
um but more importantly this entire
47:32
episode was talking about
47:33
whether there’s an issue with kids
47:37
that you know kind of exploring
47:39
transgenderism and actually
47:41
moving forward with it when maybe it’s
47:43
not it maybe it’s
47:44
sort of a product of just a tumultuous
47:47
adolescence and maybe
47:49
allowing children to do this and engage
47:51
in this is maybe not the right move
47:53
essentially saying
47:54
maybe these children who think they’re
47:55
trans aren’t actually trans and maybe we
47:58
should be
47:58
engaging the science engaging um
48:02
engaging the experts on this issue to
48:04
kind of sort this out so that
48:06
you know we’re not we’re not kind of
48:09
sending people
48:10
on this path that will sort of you know
48:12
uproot their lives and
48:14
things that they’ll have to undo later
48:16
on and just causing more trauma into
48:18
adulthood right
48:19
it’s a way to argue against that which
48:20
is to say well no we’ve talked to the
48:22
experts and the experts say this isn’t a
48:24
widespread
48:25
issue or when we interrogate these
48:27
children who think they might be trans
48:29
there are real reasons why they think
48:31
they are or you know look into that
48:33
literature
48:33
bring it up bring the experts in and
48:35
actually engage this debate but of
48:37
course that’s not what they’re in for
48:38
right like this that’s not what this is
48:40
about
48:40
this is about immediately kind of
48:43
shutting down the debate
48:44
and saying okay you’re on the you’re not
48:47
you’re not advancing
48:49
the the cause the trans cause and the
48:51
broader culture cause so you’re clearly
48:52
part of the problem you’re not being an
48:54
ally right and that’s why
48:56
this word ally is has become so
48:58
important and this broader kind of
49:00
critical theory culture war
49:02
um dynamic is because this idea of ally
49:07
it’s not just it’s not a it’s not just
49:09
an affirmational
49:11
kind of identity of being an ally but
49:12
it’s a negational identity right what
49:14
it’s saying is that
49:15
if you’re an ally it means you’re
49:17
actually part of this
49:19
right you’re not you’re not someone who
49:21
is just letting it happen or working
49:23
against us if you’re not an ally
49:25
it’s not just that you’re being lazy
49:26
they’re not trying to you know when they
49:28
say you’re not an ally what they’re
49:29
saying is that you’re the enemy
49:31
right yeah you know there’s several
49:32
there’s there’s a couple things really
49:34
interesting to me about that which is
49:36
obviously part of my formative
49:38
experience in
49:39
being politically engaged was being part
49:43
of the gay rights movement
49:44
in the late 80s or even the mid 80s to
49:48
late 80s when i kind of came of age as
49:51
a gay teenager in the reagan years there
49:53
was obviously just like there is against
49:56
trans people now it sustained an
49:57
organized demonization campaign
49:59
right obviously the people who were just
50:02
you know
50:03
close-minded malicious bigots
50:06
were not people that you regarded as
50:08
allies those are people you were willing
50:09
to kind of demonize and scorn but the
50:11
reason why
50:13
that debate ended up being won by
50:16
advocates of
50:17
gay equality was because we were
50:19
constantly searching for ways to
50:22
engage people and to change their minds
50:24
and
50:25
encouraging those questions to be asked
50:27
based on the recognition
50:29
that if you want to usher in very
50:31
profound
50:32
changes to how society functions
50:35
and do so in a way that requires a
50:38
majority to support you
50:40
even though the majority is not um part
50:43
of the group who’s
50:45
on be on whose behalf you’re advocating
50:48
dialogue
50:48
and engagement is crucial and so people
50:51
who want to
50:52
engage and ask questions are are things
50:54
that you’re happy about not people that
50:56
you want to denounce
50:57
the other thing i find so um
51:00
kind of baffling and confounding about
51:03
this
51:04
taboo on asking in particular
51:07
whether or not children or teenagers are
51:11
being
51:12
uh misdiagnosed with gender dysphoria
51:15
for cultural reasons or social reasons
51:17
or because the
51:18
the understanding of it is so
51:19
preliminary um
51:21
aside from the fact that just in general
51:23
you want medicine and science and
51:26
mental health uh professionals always
51:29
asking
51:30
whether misdiagnoses are taking place
51:32
but
51:33
there’s this kind of morality now as i
51:35
know all too well and as people have
51:37
been seeing
51:38
you know it’s kind of made its
51:40
appearance in the alex morse
51:41
scandal where there’s this now
51:44
growing uh orthodoxy among
51:49
in left global politics that if you’re a
51:51
young adult
51:53
23 21 20 you lack the capacity to make
51:58
decisions for yourself that are truly
52:00
consensual about who you want to date
52:02
who you want to have sex with
52:03
frequently people cite neurological
52:06
research that says your brain isn’t
52:07
fully formed
52:09
and that therefore if someone is 28 or
52:11
30 like alex morse was
52:13
he shouldn’t be dating or having sex
52:14
with 21 or 22 year olds even if they say
52:17
they want to
52:18
because 21 and 22 year olds aren’t
52:20
capable of making
52:21
a much a pretty limited choice do i want
52:23
to have sex with this person on this
52:25
particular night or date them and yet
52:27
those same people who say that 21 year
52:30
olds or 20 year olds
52:31
aren’t capable of deciding for
52:33
themselves whether to date an older
52:35
person or whether to have sex with an
52:36
older person
52:37
want to put it off limits whether a 14
52:41
year old or a 15 year old
52:43
is sufficiently mature and has the
52:46
emotional sophistication
52:48
to make permanent life-altering
52:50
decisions about
52:51
what their gender is to the point of
52:53
having surgeries or
52:55
hormonal treatments that will alter
52:57
themselves
52:59
forever um and you know i think that
53:03
um one of the
53:07
kind of uh phenomenon that we’re seeing
53:10
in liberal
53:10
culture increasingly that’s reflected in
53:13
this treatment of joe robin
53:15
rogan as a homophobe not for saying
53:17
anything disparaging
53:19
about trans people or advocating against
53:21
equal rights quite the contrary
53:23
he he he doesn’t do that he advocates
53:26
for rights
53:27
is the idea that simply asking questions
53:29
even in response to things that probably
53:31
ought to be interrogated
53:33
is considered itself almost as bad as
53:37
malice and bigotry itself they’re kind
53:40
of equated
53:41
in a way that just will inherently repel
53:44
people from a political movement that
53:46
says
53:47
that if you have questions you have no
53:49
right to ask them and simply asking them
53:51
makes you a bad person
53:53
right and and the the i think the uh the
53:56
tying
53:56
kind of thread there is that this is
53:59
again it’s it’s about this delineation
54:02
that we have to make between liberal
54:04
politics and liberal culture
54:05
and the culture war um this is very much
54:08
about
54:09
a culture that has de-prioritized
54:12
political outcomes right
54:14
uh we see that with your example that
54:16
you just made
54:17
um with the gay rights movement we also
54:19
saw that with the alex morse campaign
54:20
right
54:21
we saw people who were much more focused
54:24
on maintaining
54:25
the integrity and the purity of the
54:28
battle they’re engaged in culturally
54:30
even at the expense of achieving real
54:33
political outcomes
54:34
right and as you just said you know
54:36
engaging debates is
54:38
is how you actually you know having that
54:41
cross-pollination of ideas
54:42
and and actually persuading people
54:44
actually engaging in persuasion
54:47
um rather than just kind of identifying
54:49
who’s on in my tribe who’s in your tribe
54:51
that’s how you achieve political
54:53
outcomes it was the same with the alex
54:54
morse right where it was
54:56
an allegation was made and we
54:58
immediately have to believe the
54:59
allegation
55:00
not investigate it because if you are a
55:03
you know if you’re a denier or if you
55:05
even hesitate to believe
55:07
what’s happening then you are not
55:09
promoting this broader idea
55:12
that there are victims in the world and
55:14
we’re not
55:15
kind of invested further investing in
55:16
the idea of victimization right
55:19
um victimization is this really core
55:21
concept to this culture where right like
55:23
we have to believe that there are
55:24
victims and we have to always support
55:27
the creation of new categories of
55:28
victimhood and if we don’t and if we’re
55:31
not engaged in that struggle
55:33
then we’re not pushing the culture war
55:34
and again it just shows
55:36
that maintaining the integrity of this
55:38
culture war is far
55:39
more important than even the political
55:41
outcomes and i think there may be some
55:43
very tangible reasons for that i think
55:45
a lot of the people that are engaged in
55:46
this stuff are people who do derive
55:49
power from cult power powerful cultural
55:51
centers right they work in academia
55:54
they work in the media and that’s how
55:55
they exert their power
55:57
over politics and over society because
55:59
again culture is how
56:01
we talk about ideas culture is how
56:04
we mold political ideas and say which
56:07
ideas can connect together which people
56:09
can connect together who can
56:10
hang out with who how cool you know
56:13
culture builds coalitions right
56:16
it builds political coalitions so um
56:19
i think there’s a very real reason why
56:22
people
56:22
are very concerned about maintaining the
56:25
integrity of this liberal culture
56:28
it’s because that’s where they derive
56:30
their power and in fact
56:32
you know they’re i mean it’s not a
56:34
surprise to see especially
56:35
now seeing cultural elites feel so
56:38
disempowered democratically right they
56:40
feel so politically disempowered
56:43
um that they would kind of throw
56:45
themselves completely into this culture
56:47
war because that’s the only place where
56:48
they can exert their power now right
56:50
and that’s why we see these insane sorts
56:53
of um
56:55
kind of concessions to even corporate
56:57
culture where they’re
56:59
so excited to allow corporations to
57:01
censor
57:02
free speech they’re so excited to allow
57:04
hr departments to and you know
57:06
indoctrinate people and run
57:08
programs on people and force people in
57:09
these programs where the people are
57:11
literally denouncing themselves because
57:13
of the way they’re born
57:14
it’s exerting power through culture
57:16
because you can’t do it politically
57:18
anymore politically it’s a lot harder
57:20
you have to get the people on your side
57:21
why would you want to get the people on
57:23
your side that’s a pain in the ass
57:24
so yeah exactly um so
57:28
and and i do think it’s interesting as
57:30
well that
57:31
that this whole concept of whether you
57:33
care about power or not because
57:35
you know i watched i mentioned martina
57:37
navratilova earlier who um
57:40
you know is obviously a person who i pay
57:42
attention to i’ve talked about before
57:44
and written about before how she was my
57:45
childhood hero
57:46
i was working on a film about her and it
57:48
was amazing to watch
57:49
that this person who is like one of the
57:52
main 20th century pioneers
57:54
of feminism she did as much to create
57:58
space for the ability of female athletes
58:01
to compete on equal terms with male
58:03
athletes in terms of money and
58:04
sponsorships and
58:05
corporations is probably anybody except
58:08
for billie jean king
58:09
she had a trans coach in 1883 and was
58:11
defending
58:13
not just lgbts and was one of the few
58:14
openly gay celebrities or athletes of
58:17
that era
58:18
you know all she kind of did was say hey
58:21
i’m kind of confused
58:23
is all you is the only thing you have to
58:25
do to enter
58:26
female professional sports and win all
58:29
the cash
58:30
awards and and prizes and trophies is
58:34
declare yourself a woman or are there
58:35
protocols
58:36
she was really asking earnestly and
58:39
in response she was just mauled um
58:42
with no generosity no kind of
58:46
you know uh consideration for her whole
58:48
history she was just instantly declared
58:50
a bigot the more she tried to defend
58:52
herself
58:53
the worse it got and then eventually
58:55
very soon thereafter she converted
58:57
into a real enemy she emerged two months
58:59
later and wrote this
59:01
article aggressively condemning the idea
59:04
that trans women should be able to
59:06
compete in female athletic and female
59:10
athletics because it the the the kind of
59:13
intolerance for her even asking
59:17
converted her it alienated her converted
59:19
her into an enemy and
59:20
it seems like people who don’t care
59:22
about outcomes are about winning
59:24
really don’t get bothered by that but
59:27
let me just ask you about one
59:28
the kind of the last um
59:32
kind of prong of the case of the liberal
59:34
case against joe rogan i find this one
59:36
really interesting
59:37
too which is you know people say
59:41
okay fine he he liked bernie like tulsi
59:45
um and yet i believe in 2016 if i’m not
59:48
mistaken
59:50
he said that he was voting for trump
59:51
over hillary
59:53
and i’m certain that after saying that
59:56
he
59:56
thought bernie was the best candidate
59:58
and really like tulsi
59:59
he’s now saying i can’t vote for biden i
60:02
probably would vote for trump over biden
60:05
which would is leading ripples to say to
60:07
people like you
60:09
why would we possibly why should we
60:12
possibly regard somebody
60:14
as an ally who is
60:18
saying twice now that they’re going to
60:19
vote for donald trump and i guess like
60:21
an
60:21
ancillary part of that question is you
60:24
know there is this phenomenon of people
60:26
who twice voted
60:27
for barack obama and then voted for
60:29
donald trump in 2016
60:31
not a small number a large number and
60:33
here in brazil
60:34
same thing you know a lot of people who
60:35
voted for bolsonaro in 2018
60:38
were people who voted for the workers
60:40
party four consecutive
60:42
elections so if you’re kind of a
60:44
political junkie who relies on the
60:46
polarization of choose between rachel
60:48
maddow and sean hanovey
60:50
it doesn’t make any sense that somebody
60:52
could do that to say i like bernie
60:54
but i’m gonna vote for trump because you
60:56
have to pick an ideological box
60:58
and joe rogan clearly is a person
61:01
who doesn’t think that way and i think
61:03
there’s like this liberal sense that
61:05
that makes him bizarre when in fact
61:07
i think it makes him pretty common it’s
61:09
one of the reasons why people like him
61:11
because he’s not in one of those boxes
61:13
but what do you say to liberals who
61:15
would make that argument that how can we
61:17
consider somebody supporting
61:19
this authoritarian racist for president
61:22
to be an ally
61:25
well i mean there are two things that
61:26
you you have to kind of
61:29
kind of set the record straight on first
61:31
is that i i’m pretty sure in 2016 he
61:33
voted for gary johnson so he voted for a
61:35
libertarian i don’t think he voted for
61:37
trump in 2016.
61:39
um and in 2020 again he first you know
61:42
supported tulsi
61:43
then he supported bernie um and then
61:46
most recently if you really
61:48
look at his comments it’s not that he’s
61:49
saying he’s endorsing trump but he’s
61:51
saying that
61:52
he would he would vote for trump um
61:55
as a result of the party choosing biden
61:57
because he just doesn’t think biden can
61:59
do the job
62:00
just from a kind of mental age
62:04
decline standpoint so it’s not like the
62:06
most heartfelt support of trump but yeah
62:08
i mean
62:08
let’s set that aside and just say okay
62:10
like he’s willing to vote for trump
62:12
right
62:12
um i mean the idea that you wouldn’t
62:15
want to engage
62:16
someone who is willing to go from the
62:19
most
62:20
liberal the most left candidate in the
62:23
democratic primary and willing to then
62:26
switch over to trump
62:27
i mean you know it’s the argument that
62:29
the left’s been making
62:30
for you know for years now right that
62:33
like
62:33
these this is the is the guy to be
62:36
studying right he’s the one that we can
62:38
kind of crack the code on
62:40
um as for you know why that’s the case
62:43
i think it’s real again it’s really
62:45
threatening i don’t think
62:46
you know i think the democratic
62:48
establishment what i tend to tell people
62:49
is that the democratic establishment
62:52
their main priority is not really to
62:54
actually even win elections
62:56
it’s to keep control of the democratic
62:58
party right like that’s where most of
63:00
their power comes from it’s certainly
63:01
where
63:02
their most reliable source of power
63:04
comes from it’s keeping control of the
63:05
party because as long as you can
63:07
keep control of the party and you keep
63:08
control of the cultural
63:10
um levers of power in the country
63:13
you’re always going to be able to
63:15
command 50
63:16
of the political system you’re always
63:18
going to be able to command
63:20
um you know the entire media apparatus
63:23
that’s devoted to politics right you’re
63:25
good
63:25
or at least half of it right you’re
63:27
going to in control the liberal half
63:29
and so i think it’s i i mean i it’s
63:32
i’m sorry to say but i think it’s a
63:34
really cynical calculation
63:36
that cultural elites and democratic
63:39
party elites are making when they make
63:41
these decisions because when when you
63:43
engage joe rogan
63:45
and you engage his viewers you’re being
63:47
bringing in
63:48
a ton of people who you can’t
63:50
necessarily rely on to keep these clean
63:52
lines of political and cultural
63:54
engagement you’re
63:55
you’re completely blowing up the
63:57
political system you’re you’re blowing
63:59
up the racket
64:00
right and why would you want to do that
64:02
because at the end of the day
64:04
hell trump could get reelected and
64:05
they’d still control the party they can
64:07
still control the other half they’d be
64:10
raising hundreds of millions of dollars
64:12
for their think tanks and therefore you
64:14
know the media institutions and so
64:16
it’s a great racket why would you risk
64:18
that just for
64:19
winning you know the presidency for
64:21
maybe four years eight years
64:22
don’t get me wrong obviously they’d like
64:24
to win that too
64:26
but i don’t think that’s the real game i
64:27
don’t think that’s ever been the real
64:28
game
64:30
we saw that in the uk right where the
64:33
centrists and playwrights and moderates
64:36
who controlled the labor party
64:38
levers of power forever whether they
64:40
were in power out of power
64:42
when they lost control of their own
64:44
party to jeremy corbyn
64:46
they it was very obvious if you’re just
64:48
paying minimal attention but we now know
64:50
from documents that have been leaked and
64:51
reports that have been issued
64:53
they were actively working against the
64:56
labor party they preferred
64:58
to destroy corbyn and retake control
65:01
of the party even if it meant empowering
65:04
the tories and making boris johnson
65:06
prime minister because as you say
65:09
their top priority is ensuring that they
65:11
maintain
65:12
control of their party and secondary
65:15
or even more distantly is actually
65:18
winning elections
65:19
um and you know i think that you know
65:22
it’s like when people ask me why i go on
65:23
tucker carlson i
65:24
can barely even understand the question
65:26
because it’s such an obvious answer
65:28
which is
65:29
because there are four million people
65:30
watching and whatever percentage it is
65:33
that i can reach in any way not
65:34
necessarily change their minds instantly
65:37
but just kind of make them a little more
65:38
open
65:39
to hearing from different people maybe
65:41
get them kind of unsettled about
65:44
who they should be paying attention to
65:46
or introducing some ideas that maybe
65:48
maybe it’s ten percent maybe it’s five
65:50
percent maybe it’s fifteen percent
65:52
why would i ignore that if i actually
65:54
care about outcomes
65:55
to watch you know i i it kind of shocked
65:58
me edward snowden
65:59
uh appeared on rogan’s show for the
66:02
second time this week and so i went back
66:03
to look at what the audience was the
66:05
first time he appeared which is
66:06
about 10 months ago and even though
66:09
edward snowden being edward snowden kind
66:11
of spoke in like a monologue form for
66:13
about
66:14
three hours you know and he was
66:16
obviously remote because he couldn’t
66:18
go to the studio since he’s trapped in
66:19
russia the audience for that
66:22
appearance from edward snowden just on
66:25
youtube never mind all the other
66:26
platforms
66:27
was 15 million people 15 million
66:31
um which is you know four or five times
66:34
the size
66:35
of a primetime cable host even on their
66:37
best night
66:38
and obviously by virtue the fact that
66:40
you watch it that people
66:42
listen to it and can hear him say i
66:44
support tulsi or i support
66:46
bernie obviously there’s huge numbers of
66:48
those
66:49
that audience that are very reachable
66:51
from a liberal perspective
66:53
anybody who says i don’t want to have
66:56
anything to do
66:57
with a show that reaches 15 million
66:59
people
67:00
is somebody to me who’s saying
67:04
i look at politics as about everything
67:06
other than
67:07
winning wielding power and changing the
67:10
world
67:11
right right and they shrouded in moral
67:13
language right they shrouded
67:15
in how could you associate with someone
67:17
like that how could you you’ll be
67:18
tainted by someone like that
67:20
um they shrouded in those things but at
67:22
the end of the day it’s a much more
67:24
cynical calculation it’s
67:25
it’s put forth as some kind of moral
67:28
decr
67:29
declaration but it’s really a cynical
67:31
calculation
67:32
calculation in terms of controlling the
67:33
party in terms of controlling cultural
67:36
power centers
67:37
why would we want to upset that this is
67:40
a great setup
67:41
um and yeah that’s why you see 15
67:43
million people tuning in to edward
67:45
snowden because it completely cult
67:47
cuts across all of these cultural lines
67:50
i mean there aren’t
67:51
you know being interested in edward
67:53
snowden just his story and what he did
67:55
and the cultural and political impact he
67:57
had
67:58
that’s not a liberal or conservative
68:00
idea that’s
68:01
that’s reaching millions of people um
68:03
but that’s just not interesting to
68:05
um what informs the you know the the
68:08
careers and the lifestyles of the people
68:10
that
68:11
sort of hold these both the political
68:13
and cultural
68:14
levers of power in the country yeah so
68:16
yeah so thanks very much for
68:18
for taking the time i i think is a
68:20
really important topic not just
68:22
because it’s important to understand the
68:24
phenomenon of joe rogan although that
68:25
is important there are very few people
68:28
having the kind of cultural
68:30
and political impact that he’s having
68:34
um in a reaching a group of people who
68:38
often tune out politics or who aren’t
68:40
engaged in the traditional ways which
68:42
makes him
68:44
even more important than just the
68:45
numbers alone but i do think too
68:47
the reaction to him tells us a lot about
68:50
how media figures view their position
68:52
how liberals view what their political
68:54
project uh is and so
68:56
um i i think your your analysis on
69:00
twitter and the discussion that we just
69:02
had
69:02
um has really clarified those issues in
69:05
in a really helpful way so thank you so
69:07
much for
69:08
taking the time to talk to me um and i
69:10
hope people will tune into your
69:13
back channel youtube program where
69:14
you’re doing a lot of these kind of
69:15
header docs
69:17
uh discussions with people across a wide
69:20
range of
69:21
ideological and cultural uh belief
69:24
systems so
69:24
thanks very much sean yeah thank you so
69:27
much i enjoyed it
69:36
you

Michael Hudson – De-Dollarization–Toward the End of the U.S. Monetary Hegemony?

On 20 November 2019, Professor Michael Hudson delivered a lecture on “De-Dollarization–Toward the End of the U.S. Monetary Hegemony?” in Lingnan University, Hong Kong, China. The moderator was Professor Peter Beattie (The Chinese University of Hong Kong).

Michael Hudson is President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City and author of …And Forgive Them Their Debts (2018), J is for Junk Economics (2017), Killing the Host (2015), The Bubble and Beyond (2012), America’s Protectionist Takeoff, 1818-1914 (2010), Super-Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (1968 & 2003), and Trade, Development and Foreign Debt (1992 & 2009), amongst many others. He acts as an economic advisor to governments worldwide including Iceland, Latvia and China on finance and tax law.

De-Dollarization – Toward the End of the U.S. Monetary Hegemony?
Since the end of World War II, the United States has been the world’s hegemonic power. In economic, military, and cultural spheres, the U.S. has enjoyed nearly unrivaled supremacy. However, unlike past hegemons, which have been net creditors to the rest of the world, the United States is a net debtor; but this is a strength, not a weakness. U.S. debt is an integral feature of its economic dominance, through which the United States receives goods and services from the rest of the world in exchange for dollars it can print and keystroke into existence. Yet cracks are showing in the foundations of dollar hegemony, as countries look to find ways to escape from U.S. economic dominance. In this talk, Professor Hudson discussed the prospects and challenges of global de-dollarization, and how countries like China might forge a way toward a different monetary system free of U.S. control.

The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities | SOAS University of London

The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities was a talk given by Professor John J Mearsheimer at the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, SOAS University of London on 21 January 2019.  Find out more at http://bit.ly/2Dv5nlZ

It is widely believed in the West that the United States should spread liberal democracy across the world, foster an open international economy, and build institutions. This policy of remaking the world in America’s image is supposed to protect human rights, promote peace, and make the world safe for democracy. But this is not what has happened. Instead, the United States has ended up as a highly militarized state fighting wars that undermine peace, harm human rights, and threaten liberal values at home. Mearsheimer tells us why this has happened.

Speaker
John J. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, where he has taught since 1982. He graduated from West Point in 1970 and then served five years as an officer in the U.S. Air Force. He then started graduate school in political science at Cornell University in 1975. He received his Ph.D. in 1980. He spent the 1979-1980 academic year as a research fellow at the Brookings Institution, and was a post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs from 1980 to 1982. During the 1998-1999 academic year, he was the Whitney H. Shepardson Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Professor Mearsheimer has written extensively about security issues and international politics more generally. He has published six books: Conventional Deterrence (1983), which won the Edgar S. Furniss, Jr., Book Award; Liddell Hart and the Weight of History (1988); The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (2001, 2014), which won the Joseph Lepgold Book Prize and has been translated into eight different languages; The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (with Stephen M. Walt, 2007), which made the New York Times best seller list and has been translated into twenty-two different languages; Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics (2011), which has been translated into ten different languages; and The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities (2018).

He has also written many articles that have appeared in academic journals like International Security, and popular magazines like Foreign Affairs and the London Review of Books. Furthermore, he has written a number of op-ed pieces for the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times dealing with topics like Bosnia, nuclear proliferation, American policy towards India, the failure of Arab-Israeli peace efforts, the folly of invading Iraq, and the causes of the Ukrainian crisis.

Finally, Professor Mearsheimer has won a number of teaching awards. He received the Clark Award for Distinguished Teaching when he was a graduate student at Cornell in 1977, and he won the Quantrell Award for Distinguished Teaching at the University of Chicago in 1985. In addition, he was selected as a Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar for the 1993-1994 academic year. In that capacity, he gave a series of talks at eight colleges and universities. In 2003, he was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

Chair
This event will be chaired by Professor Arshin Adib-Moghaddam. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam is Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies at SOAS University of London and Fellow of Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge.

33:50
Madeleine Albright’s comments we are the
indispensable nation we have a right we
have the responsibility and now we have
the military power since we’re Godzilla
to turn the world into a different place
to remake it in America’s image think
about the concept of American
exceptionalism no American politician
can you know move one micrometer away
from American exceptionalism right you
know that Barack Obama who got
criticized on this issue was forced to
say that America is the indispensable
nation he used those words
it’s American exceptionalism we’re
different we’re better but that
nationalism juiced the liberalism the
nationalism coupled with the liberalism
coupled with the fact that we were so
powerful coupled with the fact that we
had this template in their head about
how we were going to make the world a
much better place
and we were off to the
races what’s the track record let’s talk
about the Bush Doctrine and the greater
Middle East the Ukraine crisis and
us-russia relations I’ve talked a bit
about that and then the failure of
engagement with China these are the
three most glaring examples of failure
the bush doctor the Bush Doctrine was
designed to turn the Middle East into a
sea of democracies in keeping with
liberal hegemony it’s very important to
understand that the war in Iraq 2003 was
not going to be in the minds of the
liberal hegemonist the last war in the
Middle East it was the first stop on the
train line
the second stop on the train line if you
want to include Afghanistan
we didn’t go
much further in terms of invading other
countries because Iraq turned into a
fiasco but the idea was that we could
use military force or the threat of
military force the threat of military
force to overthrow governments in the
region and install liberal democracies
in their place and therefore produce
peace in the Middle East that solved the
proliferation and terrorism problems I
know this sounds crazy now but this is
the way we were thinking you remember
Afghanistan is finally under American
control by December 2001 and then in
early 2002 the Americans are talking
about maybe invading Iraq the Israelis
catch wind of the fact that we’re going
to do Iraq and the Israelis send a
high-level delegation to Washington to
say why are you doing Iraq you should be
doing Iran
it’s the greater threat the
Americans say don’t worry Iraq is the
low-hanging fruit we’re gonna go in and
do a rack and then when we’re done with
Iraq will either do Syria or Iran next

but we won’t have to do one or two more
of these military invasions before
everybody in the region understands how
powerful we are and throws up their hand
and jumps on the american bandwagon
the
israelis foolishly believe the americans
thinking that we have found the magic
formula for winning wars and they then
begin to champion an invasion of iraq
right what’s the result total disaster
it’s truly amazing the amount of murder
and mayhem that the united states is
responsible for in the Middle East truly
amazing
virtually no successes and nothing but
failures and failures were huge numbers
of people died countries are physically
wrecked
Afghanistan now the longest war in
American history I know not a single
37:47
national security analyst who thinks
37:49
there’s any possibility we can win that
37:51
war and all we’re doing is checking
37:52
can down the road now so that Obama
37:55
doesn’t get blamed for losing
37:58
Afghanistan and now Trump doesn’t get
38:00
blamed for losing Afghanistan to Iraq we
38:03
wrecked that country Syria where the
38:06
United States displayed of a very
38:08
important role in trying to topple Assad
38:11
that’s hardly ever repeat reported in
38:14
the media that’s a total disaster the
38:17
amount of murder and mayhem we’ve
38:19
created in Syria no Libya we did a great
38:21
job there right with the help of the
38:23
Europeans my god right the Bush Doctrine
38:27
in the greater Middle East an abject
38:29
failure then there’s the Ukraine crisis
38:31
and us-russia relations I’ve talked a
38:34
little bit about this you know in the
38:35
West here in Europe and certainly in the
38:38
United States we blame the Russians for
38:40
the crisis well I don’t buy this
38:44
argument for one second from the time we
38:47
started talking about NATO expansion the
38:50
Russians made it very clear that it was
38:52
unacceptable to them they were too weak
38:55
to stop it in 1999 that’s when the first
38:58
tranche took place they were to stop too
39:01
weak to stop in 2004 which is when the
39:04
second tranche of expansion took place
39:06
but after 2008 when we were talking
39:09
about doing Georgia and talking about
39:11
doing Ukraine they said this is not
39:14
gonna happen
39:15
it was April 2008 at the bucura summit
39:19
the bucura Sneyd au summit April 2008
39:21
where when the meeting was over with the
39:24
declaration was issued by NATO that said
39:27
Georgia and Ukraine would become part of
39:30
NATO the Russians went ballistic it’s no
39:33
accident ladies and gentlemen that a
39:35
couple of months later in August 2008
39:38
you had a war over Georgia Georgia
39:40
Russia war August 2008 Bucharest summit
39:42
April 2008 and then on February 22nd
39:46
2014 you had a major crisis break out
39:49
over Ukraine the Russians had no
39:54
intention of letting either Georgia or
39:57
Ukraine become a Western bulwark on
40:00
their doorstep and the end result is
40:04
that neither one of those countries has
40:06
come Western bulwark and the Russians
40:09
are going to great lengths to wreck
40:10
those countries and the Russians are now
40:13
going to great lengths to split NATO
40:15
apart and split the EU apart so that
40:17
they can expand further eastward and
40:20
further where we have terrible relations
40:24

analysis was based on the idea that
57:28
there is a genuine effort in u.s.
57:31
foreign policy to export democracy and
57:36
some would say that you know this was
57:39
more like a Trojan horse to expand US
57:42
dominance or hegemony or however you
57:44
want to call it and that example such as
57:47
Pinochet in Latin
57:48
America or the Shah in Iran or or you
57:51
know us alliances with with autocracies
57:53
all over the world do not really
57:56
unprovided of evidence for a real
57:59
genuine effort to spread democracy in
58:02
the way it was done in in Europe with a
58:04
Marshall Plan that was really a genuine
58:06
effort to democratize absolutely agree

with you the European continent but with
the Iraq invasion in particular there
was no Marshall Plan there was no really
systemic structure competent effort to
create a democracy the only
administrator that was guarded after the
invasion was the oil ministry
and none
of the others so this is just a point
for my for my own understanding about
the trajectory of of you know what
happened to to the liberal United States
and we used to no good
these are two great issues and let me do
my best to answer them I take them in
reverse order first of all with regard
to what happened with the Shah would
happen with Pinochet Guatemala in 1954
and your comments on the Marshall Plan
remember my argument is that liberal
agenda only takes effect with the end of
the Cold War really about 1990
so I
would argue that the this is just
dovetails with what you said the United
States has a rich history of
overthrowing democratically elected
leaders right and furthermore preventing
the emergence of Democrats in other
cases and furthermore aligning itself
with murderous thugs and dictators
and
my argument would be then in a world of
realpolitik where security competition
is it play you’re going to see a lot of
that kind of behavior so I’m not
challenging that part of the story in
any way what I’m saying is that after
59:58
1990 Oh
but so recently up until Trump the
United States I believe was genuinely
committed to spreading democracy around
the world now a number of people
including some of my really good friends
make the argument that you make which is
dead even after 1990 this is a Trojan
horse their argument is John this is you
know the atavistic realist United States
taking advantage of the unipolar moment
to dominate the globe and then
disguising its aggressive behavior with
liberal rhetoric okay now uh I think
that’s wrong okay and I think whether
you’re you and my friends are right or
I’m right is largely an empirical
question it may be the case in thirty
years when they open the public records
there is an abundance of evidence that
supports your perspective which is that
we behaved in a very realist
we tried to become a global hegemon and
we successfully covered it up and we
bamboozled people like John okay that
that may happen I cannot deny that okay
but my argument to you and to my friends

is that I believe that’s wrong and I
61:23
believe that the people who are who have
61:29
been conducting American foreign policy
61:30
are not that clever they’re fools
61:32
they’re fools and they are remarkably
61:36
idealistic and I think there is an
61:39
abundance of evidence to support my
61:41
position right I can’t adduce it all
61:44
here or we can’t have a big debate about
61:45
it but I do think that’s true and the
61:48
reason I go to the case of NATO and I
61:50
say that NATO was not about containment
61:53
cuz I’m anticipating your question
61:56
necessarily from you maybe from somebody
61:59
in the audience
61:59
right and I’m trying to show you that
62:01
NATO expansion was not realpolitik at
62:04
work
62:05
it was liberal hegemony but again I
62:09
think I’m right in the terms of the
62:11
story that I’m telling you
62:12
but again this is an empirical question
62:14
and as you well know we want to be
62:16
humble in this business because we’re
62:18
sometimes proved wrong your question
62:21
about nationalism and liberalism I’m
62:23
gonna make two responses to that first
62:26
of all I do think one can make an
62:28
argument that liberal democracy is in
62:31
trouble in the United States with Donald
62:34
Trump as the president I think most
62:37
people believe that there is some chance
62:40
some reasonable chance he will get
62:42
reelected I think eight years with him
62:45
could do a great deal of damage to
62:47
liberal democracy but I would take it a
62:52
step further and say that Trump is a
62:54
manifestation of you know underlying
62:58
forces that are at play here that don’t
63:03
bode well for liberal democracy so I’m
63:05
not at all making light of what a
63:09
dangerous situation were in and of
63:11
course not only applies to the United
63:14
States as I told you folks in my talk if
63:17
you go look at Freedom House’s data
63:19
since 2006 the number of liberal
63:22
democracies in the world has been going
63:24
down now another fascinating issue you
63:28
raise is the whole question of the sort
63:36
of omnipresent state in the United
63:39
States right that doesn’t look like a
63:42
liberal state it looks like it’s
63:44
interfering in the management of almost
63:48
everyone’s daily life I don’t want to go
63:53
into this in any great detail but
63:54
basically when I talked about rights I
63:59
was talking about negative rights I was
64:02
talking about freedoms and the problem
64:05
is that in the modern world this is all
64:07
to be a good thing we’re not just
64:09
interested in negative rights were
64:10
interested in positive rights and the
64:14
best example of that is just think about
64:16
this the right to an equal opportunity
64:20
it’s not just the right to life liberty
64:22
and the pursuit of happiness we you’re
64:24
talking about freedoms those were
64:26
we’re talking about rights like the
64:28
right to health care the right to equal
64:33
opportunity those are called positive
64:35
rights and they’re very important in
64:38
every society today including the United
64:41
States and the point is once you start
64:44
talking about positive rights as well as
64:47
negative rights the state begins to get
64:50
involved in a really serious way and you
64:53
remember folks when I told you about the
64:55
three solutions that liberals have to
64:59
dealing with potential for violence
65:01
I said inalienable rights tolerance and
65:04
the state and remember that I said that
65:07
it’s very important to have a limited
65:09
state and the point that you’re making
65:11
is that we’re moving away from that
65:13
limited state and I think in modern
65:17
societies it’s very hard not to do that
65:22
I’m agreeing with you because of the end
65:24
is because of the emphasis on positive
65:26
rights and then when you start thinking
65:30
about things like artificial
65:31
intelligence the national security state
65:34
the ability of the state to intervene in
65:36
our daily lives you see that liberal
65:39
democracy is a fragile device that
65:44
really has to be protected so I’m
65:47
agreeing with you in very important ways
65:50
in terms of ever saying that was
65:53
essentially the point that we are all in
65:56
the same boat in many ways trying to
65:58
struggle to keep the rights alive when
66:00
trying to struggle to keep a democracy
66:03
alive here but questions from from the
66:07
audience and if I may I take two at a
66:10
time John is that okay it’s perfectly
66:12
fine I should have said at the beginning
66:13
by the way switch off your mobile phones
66:15
I mean Jeff reminded myself with a so –
66:19
two questions the lady with the colored
66:23
jumper yes I forgot to bring over a big
66:31
piece of paper
66:33
hello thank you very much for your talk
66:35
in your talk you mentioned international
66:37
institutions particularly the WTO and
66:40
the IMF as kind of instruments of
66:43
liberal hegemony I’m wondering what do
66:45
you see the future of those
66:47
international institutions now that
66:49
there’s a failure of in of liberal
66:52
hegemony thank you okay one more
66:54
question the gentleman in the back just
66:57
right at the back yes with the highest
66:59
hand ah yes that’s what the blue blue
67:01
sweatshirt hi thanks you said that
67:08
obviously liberal Germany is faltering
67:12
is it any more or less faltering than
67:17
autocracies such as China Russia Thank
67:21
You Jon first question had to do with
67:32
the future of international institutions
67:34
I believe that in a highly
67:40
interdependent world and we live in a
67:43
highly interdependent world a globalized
67:46
world a hyper globalized world cult
67:49
whatever you want international
67:52
institutions are absolutely essential
67:55
and that doesn’t mean that certain
67:59
international institutions won’t die but
68:02
if they do they’ll be replaced by new
68:04
international institutions there’s just
68:07
no way you can do business without
68:11
international institutions international
68:13
institutions is I learned a long time
68:15
ago when I wrote an article on this
68:17
subject are basically rules and you need
68:20
rules for all sorts of reasons when
68:23
you’re doing business and that business
68:25
can be economic it can be military I
68:28
mean if you have military alliance NATO
68:31
as an institution the Warsaw Pact as an
68:33
institution if you’re gonna fight the
68:35
Cold War all over again you’re going to
68:36
do it with a mill
68:37
Alliance which is an institution you
68:39
need the WTO although I think you need a
68:42
different variant of it you need the IMF
68:45
the World Bank the Chinese have created
68:48
the aii big institutions are here to
68:50
stay
68:51
Donald Trump can get rid of NAFTA but he
68:54
in effect just produced another
68:56
institution that looks like NAFTA so
68:59
institutions aren’t going away no
69:01
question in my mind on that the
69:05
gentleman up here asked me about whether
69:07
you know the Chinese political system
69:10
and the Russian political system were
69:12
also failing and maybe failing more so
69:15
than liberal democracy I don’t know what
69:19
the answer is to that at this point in
69:21
time I think that both the Chinese and
69:26
the Russians are doing reasonably well
69:28
at this point in time what the long-term
69:31
future of those political systems is
69:35
it’s hard to say so I’m just not too
69:41
sure I think in in both the Chinese in
69:45
the Russian case a lot depends on the
69:47
economy and I think a lot depends on how
69:53
much progress they make on the economic
69:57
front over the future but I think at
70:00
this point in time to some extent
70:02
everybody’s in trouble okay two more
70:05
questions
70:06
the lady in the back all the way
70:16
my question is about based on the
70:20
relationship between China and United
70:22
States do you think we are entering oh
70:26
we are already living you know in new
70:29
Cold War era and secondly do you think
70:34
that sports country US and China will
70:37
end up in Susa dated Trump’s will end up
70:41
way so City Detra okay second question
70:52
yes the gentleman right here would you
70:57
wait for the microphone it’s right that
71:02
it’s in the front yeah thank you
71:04
it’s okay sorry to make you run hi John
71:09
thank you for your talk much of the US
71:12
political discourse lately around Trump
71:15
seems to be focused apart from the
71:17
collusion with Russia seems to be on the
71:20
lack of coherence of foreign policy and
71:23
I think looking at some of trumps
71:26
rhetoric in recent years it seems to
71:29
align a lot with the core tenets of your
71:31
book tragedy of great power politics and
71:33
in particular we see Trump adopting an
71:35
offensive realist position towards China
71:37
we see him somewhat buck-passing Syria
71:40
to Russia and we see a kind of offshore
71:42
balancing with regards to NATO in Europe
71:45
so my question is to what extent do you
71:48
think that Trump is a meerschaum
71:50
heurists
71:50
so to speak truth
71:51
[Music]
71:54
okay John okay I’ll take the first
72:01
question on China and the United States
72:04
and the young woman in the back asked me
72:07
if I thought there was a new Cold War in
72:10
store between those two countries I
72:13
think the answer is yes my basic view of
72:18
international politics is that the great
72:20
powers in an ideal world want to
72:23
dominate their region of the world and
72:26
they want to do like the United States
72:29
did in the Western Hemisphere they want
72:30
to be the only great power and they
72:34
don’t want any other distant great
72:36
powers coming into their backyard and if
72:40
you look at China today China’s growing
72:44
economically and militarily and I think
72:49
that the Chinese are very interested as
72:51
they should be in dominating Asia and
72:55
that means not only being the most
72:58
powerful country in the region but also
73:01
making sure the Americans are pushed out
73:04
the Americans well the Chinese talk
73:11
constantly these days about the century
73:14
of national humiliation which ran from
73:17
the late 1840s until the late 1940s the
73:21
Chinese were weak over that hundred year
73:24
period and they were exploited by the
73:28
Japanese the Americans and the European
73:30
great powers they have never forgotten
73:32
that
73:32
and their goal is to make sure they are
73:35
really powerful in the future if you
73:38
were to go up to a Jap to a Chinese
73:40
policymaker or remember the Chinese
73:43
foreign policy League and say to that
73:45
person you have two choices you can be
73:48
twenty times more powerful than Japan or
73:51
Japan can be 20 more times powerful than
73:54
you do you think it makes any difference
73:56
they would laugh in your face they would
73:59
tell you we know what happened the last
74:00
time Japan was 20
74:02
more times powerful than us we intend to
74:04
be 20 times more powerful than Japan in
74:07
the future and then when you ask the
74:09
Chinese behind closed doors what they
74:11
think about the Americans running ships
74:13
and aircraft up their coast and having
74:16
ground forces off their coasts and
74:18
places like Korea and Japan they will
74:21
tell you in no uncertain terms if they
74:24
get powerful enough they will try to
74:25
push us out beyond us meaning the
74:27
Americans beyond the first island chain
74:29
and then beyond the second island chain
74:32
and if you look at how they think about
74:33
the waters around them they’ve made it
74:35
very clear that they think the South
74:37
China Sea belongs to them and we’ve made
74:40
it clear to them we don’t agree with
74:42
that they’ve made it clear they think
74:44
the East China Sea belongs to them and
74:47
there’s a real possibility they’ll get
74:49
into a fight with the Japanese over
74:51
those small islands in the East China
74:53
Sea
74:53
then there’s Taiwan which is a potential
74:56
flashpoint of great significance China
74:59
is not a status quo power so the Chinese
75:03
as they get more and more powerful are
75:06
going to try and become more and more
75:09
influential in East Asia and they’re
75:12
going to try and push the Americans out
75:13
and you know what the Americans are
75:15
going to do the Americans are going to
75:16
pivot to Asia and they’re going to try
75:18
and contain the Chinese and they’re
75:20
going to push back so I would argue that
75:24
there is likely to be trouble ahead and
75:29
put it in your terms you are likely to
75:31
get a new Cold War in Asia second
75:38
question had to do with Trump and he
75:43
accused me of being in bed with Donald
75:46
Trump intellectually this is a
75:49
frightening thought
75:54
yes right that’s right then we know
75:58
there is no connection look to be
76:03
serious I think that I think that Donald
76:06
Trump has no coherent foreign policy I
76:10
think he flies by the seat of his pants
76:12
and he has certain intuitions and I do
76:18
think apropos your question that some of
76:21
those intuitions are consistent with a
76:23
realist perspective in other words when
76:26
Trump says that he is not interested in
76:30
using military force to spread democracy
76:33
around the planet that’s an argument
76:35
that resonates with realists there’s
76:38
just no question about it now another
76:41
example that you used was containment of
76:44
China right that of course resonates
76:47
with realist logic but also you want to
76:50
remember that the person who articulated
76:52
the pivot to Asia was Hillary Clinton
76:54
and the Obama administration the Clinton
76:56
administration was also interested in
76:58
the pivot to Asia so this is not
77:00
something new to trump but it gets
77:03
consistent both with the Democrats and
77:05
with Trump with basic realist logic my
77:08
problem with Trump is that he’s done a
77:10
half-baked job of pivoting and dealing
77:14
with our Asian allies Trump’s big
77:16
problem and this is where you know he
77:18
parts for realism his realist believed
77:21
that alliances matter allies matter and
77:24
if you’re gonna deal with an adversary
77:28
like China right you need help from
77:31
countries in East Asia and you don’t
77:34
want to be slapping him around which is
77:36
what he does I also think the TPP the
77:39
trans-pacific partnership which was an
77:41
economic institution that was designed
77:44
to contain China right it was designed
77:48
for economic purposes but also for
77:49
security purposes he vetoed that or he
77:53
killed that when he came
77:54
to office that was a big mistake so I
77:58
think a lot of what he has done is
78:00
inconsistent with a realist approach but
78:03
there is no question that he does have
78:04
realist tendencies although again it’s
78:07
not part of any sort of grand theory of
78:11
how the world works okay last round of
78:14
questions
78:16
the gentleman white sweatshirt thank you
78:24
so much for your talk it’s very
78:26
enlightening I just have a question with
78:30
regards to the Iraq invasion
78:33
so you said and I quote there are
78:36
virtually no successes in Iraq and I
78:39
personally think that there were some
78:40
successes for the United States let’s
78:44
put aside all of the inexplicable damage
78:46
that has been wrought on to the Iraqi
78:49
population I think that there were
78:53
benefits for it for its economic
78:56
interests in the long term we can see
78:59
today that although what was done in
79:01
Iraq was a failure in many ways many oil
79:05
contracts if not all were given to
79:08
American country companies like
79:10
ExxonMobil war was created which
79:14
increases the demand for for weapons
79:17
which in turn can increase manufacturing
79:20
and selling of weapons by American
79:23
companies although all these contributes
79:27
to the economic superiority of the
79:29
United States and its prominent
79:31
companies so we need a question I will
79:34
come to the question because we’re
79:35
running out of time all right I
79:37
apologize for that so we can’t imagine
79:40
the United States today without its
79:42
superior economy right so I ask can the
79:49
Iraqi invasion be seen as a commercial
79:51
success for the United States
79:53
thank you very much the second question
80:05
hi thank you very much for your talk
80:08
my question is regarding the European
80:10
Union as America focuses on itself more
80:13
and liberalism takes a backseat do you
80:16
think there is a future for the European
80:18
Union and what do you think the future
80:19
holds for Western Europe thank you I
80:29
should go okay thank you
80:31
with regard to your question about Iraq
80:33
I thought you were gonna argue that it
80:36
had some benefits for Iraq but obviously
80:39
you’re arguing that it had benefits to
80:41
the United States economic benefits for
80:43
the United States I don’t believe that
80:46
I think it’s estimated that the two wars
80:53
won in Afghanistan and two in Iraq and
80:56
the Iraqi war is the more expensive the
80:58
two of the two is gonna cost us
81:00
somewhere between four to six trillion
81:03
dollars over time again when you think
81:08
of all that money and and and and the
81:11
consequences for the Iraqi people it’s
81:14
just stunning right but for the six
81:16
trillion dollars I don’t think the oil
81:19
companies ended up making much of profit
81:24
as a result of the invasion and I think
81:28
in terms of arms sales yes we sold some
81:31
more arms but not enough to really
81:34
matter not enough to really affect the
81:36
economy so I don’t think I don’t think
81:42
that you’re right that the the United
81:44
States benefited economically from this
81:47
war but again even if it did it wouldn’t
81:49
justify you know what happened in Iraq
81:53
and by the way remember that one of the
81:55
principal consequences of the invasion
81:58
of Iraq was the creation of Isis just
82:01
don’t want to lose sight of that
82:04
second question a very interesting
82:06
question on the EU and the future of the
82:08
European Union and you prefaced it by
82:11
saying America’s losing interest in
82:15
Europe to some extent and as American
82:18
interest in Europe wanes what does that
82:21
mean for the EU I make two points first
82:26
of all I believe that one of the reasons
82:29
probably the main reason that European
82:32
integration has been so successful and
82:35
there has been peace in Europe is
82:37
because of the presence of the American
82:40
military in Europe its NATO it’s the
82:45
American pacifier as I often say to
82:48
audiences you know I’ve spent a lot of
82:50
time going around Europe since 1990 when
82:52
the Cold War ended I have never met a
82:56
single policymaker a single pundit a
82:59
single academic a single representative
83:03
of the foreign policy establishment in
83:05
any country in Europe who wants to see
83:07
the Americans leave Europe this is quite
83:09
remarkable and now I was recently
83:12
Romania as recently in Denmark the
83:15
Romanians and the den Danes do not want
83:18
us to leave Europe and it’s because they
83:20
understand that this I’m throw but the
83:23
American military presence that NATO
83:25
underpins the EU and peace and security
83:29
in Europe okay that’s my view so in
83:33
terms of the future of the EU what
83:37
really matters in terms of the United
83:39
States is that we stay in NATO keep NATO
83:43
intact and keep American forces here the
83:47
second point I would make to you the
83:49
problems in the EU today despite all
83:52
Donald Trump’s rhetoric have nothing to
83:55
do with the United States they’re mainly
83:59
Eurocentric problems problems associated
84:02
with the euro problems associated with
84:05
brexit if you look at what’s going on in
84:07
Italy and a lot of these problems by the
84:10
way have to do
84:10
with nationalism right I’m not going to
84:12
get into that in any detail here but
84:14
there are real problems in the EU today
84:17
but those problems are not the result of
84:21
the United States right so the Europeans
84:24
have to figure out how to fix those
84:25
problems but more importantly for the
84:28
Europeans they got to keep the Americans
84:30
here in my opinion I think the America
84:33
the European elites understand correctly
84:35
that an American military presence is a
84:38
pacifying factor here in Europe the main
84:43
pacifying factor thank you very much
84:46
John unfortunately we have to leave it
84:48
at that there will be a drinks reception
84:51
outside in the foyer but join me once
84:54
again to in thanking professor much I’m
84:58
afraid
84:58
excellent
85:00
[Applause]
85:05
you
85:06
[Applause]