And you begin to have these enormous social fissures– rich and poor, young and old, ideological
fissures, identity politics, all the rest.
Until finally, society becomes ungovernable and becomes ripe and vulnerable for the next
Whether it’s the GFC, or whether it’s I think next time around, I’ll be even worse– particularly
given kind of the demographic and debt stresses we now face.
But at that point, suddenly then, the real key point of the fourth turning, and in the
middle of the fourth turning, is when one side just takes over, right?
That’s when everyone re-establishes community again.
And you know, the losers are just pushed out to one side.
I mean, look at the Civil War– that was a fourth turning.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Right.
NEIL HOWE: We’re sitting here right at the divide of the Civil War right here.
You know, that was– these are Yankees are on this side, these are confederates on this
Well, what happened?
I mean, the South was a pariah for two generations.
I mean, the South suffered an enormous decline in wealth and income.
I mean, it took the south many, many decades to ever recover.
The generation that actually is in the most difficult position is the generation in mid-life
during the fourth turning.
That’s you, Grant.
That’s Generation X. GRANT WILLIAMS: Listen, I feel that already.
NEIL HOWE: Because you guys are already invested in the old regime.
You see, when you’re young, you either already have joined the new regime, or you can quickly
But you guys already invested.
This is why John Adams, and George Washington, and all of these what we call Liberty generation
Americans who are in mid-life during the American Revolution.
Had such a existential sense of risking everything, because they couldn’t go back, right?
All of their lives, their property, their sacred honor– it was all on the line.
And the younger generation– like millennials today– incredibly optimistic.
I mean, all the younger generation of Jefferson, and Hamilton, and Monroe, and Madison, and
Jay, and all those guys– they knew the American Revolution was going to win.
But you know, John Adams is sitting there fearful.
You know, my god, this is never going to stick together.
Because the younger generation– because again, they’re young, right?
They’re going to adapt.
They can still change.
They can fit into whatever happens.
GRANT WILLIAMS: So what happens to that?
I mean, let’s use the millennial generation as an example.
That younger generation comes through full of hope, full of optimism, who happen to be
at the center of this fourth turning with all the chaos, and destruction, and turmoil–
what tends to happen to them?
How does that optimism– does it save them?
Does it get changed?
NEIL HOWE: Oh, it saves them, because it’s combined with a couple of other things.
One is community and risk aversion.
So there’s belief you don’t trust the individual, you trust the group.
GRANT WILLIAMS: Which we’re seeing everywhere.
NEIL HOWE: Which we’re seeing everywhere.
And risk aversion, because you risk it.
Remember- – millennials, have been told they’re special since the time they were born.
And that means especially take care of yourself, because everyone expects great things from
And everyone– you know, your parents, and teachers, and public officials all love you,
and really care about you.
And so why take risks with yourself?
Fourth turnings are so often seen as destructive.
I mean, wars, financial panics is one.
GRANT WILLIAMS: That’s how I think of it.
NEIL HOWE: Well, yeah.
Of course it’s destructive.
You know, all this wealth is being uncreated, being torn away.
All of this just obvious destruction of the old order.
But it makes room for the new order.
It makes room for the young.
And one lesson about history is that one of the things that winter does, is it kills everything
back so new things can grow.
That’s why we have forest fires- – so new plants have space to grow up.
That’s why it suddenly floods down here.
It does the same thing through the Rio Grande.
So that clearing out all the junk.
So I think that’s one very important point to remember.
Forth turnings, although obviously painful for everyone, painful for everyone who particularly
is invested in the old order, serve a very necessary, almost biological function.
GRANT WILLIAMS: That’s the word.
We talk about institutions, and we’re going to go to a place that is filled with not just
American institutions, but global institutions, a lot of which were set up after the war.
NEIL HOWE: Absolutely.
GRANT WILLIAMS: So let’s head into town, because there’s a lot more stuff to see and talk about,
NEIL HOWE: Let’s go to the nation’s capitol.
GRANT WILLIAMS: All right, let’s do it.
In the next episode, Neil and I traveled to Washington DC to look at some previous fourth
turning, and try to understand what lessons history has to teach us about how these momentous
events changed the world.
NEIL HOWE: Look at this monument, you say, this is the birth of a golden age.
But there’s one thing we forget.
All the golden ages of history always start with a huge crisis.
GRANT WILLIAMS: And along the way, we’ll talk with a man who’s been at the very center of
previous generational change in Washington, Dr. Harald Malmgren.
HARALD MALMGREN: It’s not something WE think about, but we are edging towards highly concentrated
power in the hands of few.
For me, it’s oligarchies.
I mean, we’re looking a lot like Russia.
It appears some millennials and seniors haven’t been as worried about their risk of contracting COVID-19: Over the weekend, many young people continued to go to bars and restaurants despite urging from public officials to social distance. Others struggled to convince older parents and relatives that COVID-19 is, in fact, a big deal. And a Harris poll on 2,000 adults published March 13 found 77% of adults over 65 and 67% of millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) said they’re “unlikely” to catch the virus, which has infected at least 189,000 people around the globe.
So, who is taking COVID-19 seriously? Possibly Gen X, who are born between 1965 and 1980 according to Pew Research Center, and are often referred to as the “sandwich generation” because many are caring for children and older parents. On social media this weekend, the hashtag “GenX” trended, with the “latchkey generation” saying that they were the most prepared to live in isolation.
From a psychological perspective, there might be some truth to this argument.
“Every generation will react differently [to COVID-19] based on the experiences that generation has had,” Paul Gionfriddo, president and CEO of the nonprofit Mental Health America tells CNBC Make It.
And amid the COVID-19 pandemic, many Gen X-ers who are responsible for running households, taking care of children and caring for elderly parents must assume the brunt of stress.
“The sandwich generation is concerned about parents and children, and they are also the working generation that is concerned about how they’re going to pay the bills next month,” Gionfriddo says. In other words, they don’t have a choice but to take COVID-19 more seriously.
Older generations, such as baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964) and older, may have a greater set of experiences, but their attention is likely going to be turned to worrying about children and grandchildren than their own health, Gionfriddo says.
While those over 65 technically have the highest risk of getting seriously ill from COVID-19, “your parents are going to feel that they are still capable of taking care of themselves,” David Nace, chief medical officer of UPMC Senior Communities, tells CNBC Make It. That’s at least in part because this may be the first time they’re considered part of the “older” or “at-risk” population, which can be jarring.
Younger generations such as millennials and Gen Z have their own reasons for responding in a way that some might consider nonchalant.
For one thing, these younger generations tend to “stare down” problems, which is a coping or survival mechanism, Gionfriddo says. For example, many young people continued to go to bars and restaurants, despite warnings to socially isolate to stop the spread of COVID-19.
“They just say, ‘I’m going to face down death, because I see it so much less,’” he says.
And studies suggest that millennials are actually more stressed than other generations, which is why they’re often referred to as “the worry generation.” A 2018 survey from the American Psychological Association found that Gen Z adults are most likely of all generations to report poor mental health.
“When you tack on something like [COVID-19], you’re basically not going to see as dramatic a change in their outlook, because the generation is already so stressed,” Gionfriddo says.
Regardless of your age, it’s important that “everyone understands more than ever that these threats are real,” Gionfriddo says. To that end, you should take your fears and anxieties seriously, Gionfriddo says.
“Don’t be shamed into thinking that it’s not okay to feel worried,” he says.
32:29great irony is that the real ideologicaledge of the whole Bitcoin movement waswas guys like you know James DaleDavidson and REE smog and they therewere sovereign individual these areboomers and all the Xers that followedthem these are all libertarians theybelieve radically in the idea of nogovernment you know and we’re just youknow the with no need for trust I meantalk about an ideal Society for most GenXers no trust necessary so so anywaywe’re gonna do a world with that trustand and that was really it was it wasactually I think an ideological edge toa lot of people’s interest in Bitcoin itwas sort of the kind of world sociallypolitically that they really wantedand unfortunately ideology as you knowand you’ve often spoken about that inyour programs ideology always warps yourmarket driven judgment right big timeyou don’t want to start with ideology ifyou’re marketing an ideology and you’regood at it you might make a lot of moneyin a short period of time but thatdoesn’t mean that your views on it orgoing to be non cyclical and or crashingand that’s that’s that’s what you knowsadly is happening a lot of purveyors or34:47and speaking about money and again thisis sort of very deep sort ofintellectual history there kind of twotheories about the origin of moneyone is the barter theory you know westarted out bothering Bob Barton justtreating goods for goods and then youknow then gold and other things and soon so it’s basically that’s the kind ofthe libertarian theory so the Canadianguy from like the Hudson’s Bay Companylike yeah you know forever that piece ofpaper but then there’s a whole nothertheory which also has a long kind ofintellectual pedigree which is more thepurview of sociologists and that isgovernment the money was really creationof governments and there’s a lot to sayfor that because in fact that’s howmoney wasreally introduce now it’s the governmentpeople right that whole theory thatwhole that whole intellectual pedigreekind of feeds into modern monetarytheory and that is its government thatcreates money I mean forget this wholeidea that it all comes from gold andthere’s some intrinsic value no god it’sa system of Social Credit and Society itmakes a collective decision to create itthey can do it as they wish allgovernment all currency has always beenfiat currency and this whole idea thatonly recently we’ve had fiat currency soanyway that’s the idea behind monetarytheory you don’t have to worry about howmuch you issue because you can issue anyamount you want so long as the economyis it is running at full employment andso long as you keep inflation to youknow down to a reasonable degree now Ialways say that the argument frommonetary theory post GFC is a lot betterthan it was right because no matter howlow we get interest rates we had troublegetting to full employment and inflationnever seemed to show up on our radarscreen so I think this is the reason whymodern monetary theory is so big if thereason it’s going to be practicallyimportant is not now when we’re you knowunemployment is down at 3% and althoughit’s gonna be a big issue come the nextrecession right that’s when it’s gonnahit right and we haven’t even talkedabout that when is the nest recession isthat gonna be perfectly time for thenext election or not right that’s goingto be fascinating there are many moreDemocrats believe in this mmt thencertainly like you said libertarians buttheir but their chances of introducingthat are going to be hugely improved atthe right political juncture with theeconomy on the right conditions yeahwait until the economy is flat on itsback with our unemployment rate up at 1037:19percent and 11 percent whatever it is37:21suddenly the Fed is sitting there37:24flatlining at SERP right not knowing37:26what more they come on yeah hundred37:29mandatory thirty would be back plus huge37:33fiscal spending and you know the two37:35kind of merged together right modern37:36monetary theory and huge37:38of fiscal deficits you’ve been greater37:40than we have now so long as you got the37:42economy back working again37:44what’s the matter we did it with in37:46World War two we did it during the New37:48Deal mm-hmm the green New Deal37:50come on you got bad you got a New Deal37:52and the green New Deal37:53actually we’re getting some questions on37:54that why there’s actually question on37:57climate change if it figures into your37:59outlook does it you know on climate38:02change I’m more of a I have a matt the38:06ridley you know the guy the the british38:10intellectual who who wrote a a number of38:13great books on on genetics and and38:16evolution and so I’ve been equine38:17deterrent because he he actually covered38:19climate change for many many years but38:21he coined the term Luke warming he said38:24he’s a lukewarm ER which means that he38:27thinks it he thinks that rising carbon38:29dioxide levels are responsible for a38:31little bit of warming but not not a lot38:34and not nearly the kind of alarmist38:37picture that people think I’m kind of38:39more of a lukewarm ER what interesting38:42thing warmer sounds like Luke Skywalker38:43it’s like an appeal to people because it38:46sounds like it makes some sense how’s it38:49look warmer yeah a little bit more of a38:51hot because you can’t you know we like38:52it you can’t be like a total like38:54Treehugger or you know you did you got a38:57it sounds like a little bit more neutral38:59yeah kind of sounds disgusting39:02anyway alright great thinking on the39:05economic Turan economic direction39:08long-term Neil Central Bank policy will39:10likely continue to counter the39:12demographic gravity and fall failure39:14will likely manifest in market and39:16monetary crises so slow with chaotic big39:19bumps ahead question mark sounds like39:21more of a comment but a lot of people39:23believe that I got into this with with39:25with Lakai a39:27lot of people believe that no worries39:29more cowbell markets could never go down39:31again no I clearly don’t believe that39:34and and actually I think around October39:36to December you were brown right you’re39:39on this side of the you know this side39:40of the earth on the right side of the39:42grass yeah the markets went down yes39:47this is memories are so short it’s39:50almost like people watch the market day39:52they completely forget what happens you39:54could have lot if you’re along the39:55Russell 2000 which is a pretty broad39:56index of US stocks and now 27 percent39:59from August the 30th to December the40:0124th what could go wrong that’s that’s40:04called a bear market yeah yeah I mean40:06it’s a rash so but I think what what40:10they’re referring to is the idea could40:12could the economy go down yeah and and40:15and not only do I think it will i40:17actually this is all a part with a lot40:20of people i think it’s a good thing I40:21actually do I think that is when we40:24correct institutions and we rebuild40:26institutions I think the idea that you40:29would have an economy just constantly40:30dribble along you know is actually not40:34good for us40:34well there’s many periods of40:36Reconstruction and and not only that but40:38the whole point about market crashes40:41depends which side you’re on if you’re40:43young and you’re being an invest you get40:45to buy into the American dream40:47at a discount there are always two sides40:49to a transaction and I do believe you40:51know when I’ve I see the media following40:53Wall Street all the time and every time40:55markets will go down a treeless type40:56price but whenever the prices go down40:57it’s like a terrible tragedy yeah for41:00all the older people that owned41:01everything but the next generation is41:04coming on right it’s their opportunity41:05there are always two sides to a41:07transaction and and for life to go on we41:12have to think about what’s coming on41:13after us well what you have seen is the41:15opposite like by virtue of not having a41:17recession this is the longest u.s.41:18economic expansion in US history41:20Republicans and Democrats when it comes41:22to monetary policy have gravitated to41:24the same thing there’s no difference you41:26know there’s no difference between41:28Donald Trump wanting more cowbell and41:30Barack Obama wanted more cowbell there’s41:32no difference between this the federal41:34reserve members how they go about their41:37day job that it’s all one in the same41:40thing totally but when the economy goes41:45down again and when we’re back at that41:47you know that zero bound then all this41:50other stuff comes back onto the table41:51and and I don’t believe by the way that41:54you know people talk about inflation the41:58governments can very easily engineer42:00inflation if there were enough I believe42:02Japan was very near that point a couple42:04of years ago and and the way they would42:06have done it was simply to say any42:08worker or anyone with a payroll you put42:12your stuff in a bank and we just we’re42:13gonna index it out by a percent a month42:15or something like I mean thank you guys42:17but but no in other words you can42:20engineer it if you if you have the42:23incentive to do so a Jubilee what are42:25the advantages of that well suddenly now42:27your monetary policy has teeth once you42:31get inflation going again then holding42:33that interest rate low right actually42:36gives traction to your monetary policy42:39and and we are gonna see that if this42:44next time puts us in that same situation42:46we were gonna see a lot of the stuff42:47that was only discussed before yeah and42:49and the inflation to be clear comes from42:51the deflation because the deflation is42:53what causes the inflation so I mean you42:55come from a very asymmetric point42:56there’s big opportunity politically in42:58that and you save the world according to43:00yourself let’s see here43:05there’s a lot of political questions and43:07I want to go there what what would be43:11here this is an interesting one given43:13you join the term Millennials what what43:16would be your biggest long-term bet as a43:18millennial investor given stagnation and43:21slowing growth if it comes to fruition43:27as a millennial so I assume they’re just43:30meaning if you’re Milan you’re looking43:32like what’s the best way to play your43:33outlook good answer I mean I you know43:49other than all the standard answers43:51about you know diversifying your assets43:53and being geographically diversified43:55obviously at a time of crisis you43:57certainly want to be geographically43:59diversified I mean I often get asked44:01which areas of the we you know you’re44:03the demographer which areas of the world44:05I should be you know invested in from44:07that point44:07view and you can see that I mean if you44:09just look at any of my you know 2044:12charts on the subject you can look at44:14you can look at areas which are44:16reasonably decent in terms of you know44:22security legal structure corruption and44:25all that and yet have high population44:27growth so if you’re really looking for44:29that wave you know you’re looking at the44:31at the Malaysia’s and Indonesia’s the44:33Philippines and so on there there is44:35there is again looking at quadrants44:37there is an area there where you can44:40find economies for the long run that are44:43probably going to you know they still44:44have a lot of catch-up to do in terms of44:46productivity they’re still gonna have a44:47proactivity you know dividend over the44:50so if you’re looking long term but be44:53diversified because you know how any one44:55of those countries is gonna go but there44:57are ease of the world where you where44:59you where you certainly particularly if45:01you know if your millennial you probably45:02have a target date fund you know out45:04there I don’t know45:05that’s tough hundred forty five or those45:07four old wall products like those are45:09like you can’t do it within that product45:10so I’m saying if you can take some money45:12out of that product yeah you you’d want45:15to diversify what is it one way to45:17things like Josephine’s for up Neil’s45:19four quadrant map with the countries45:21quickly if you can what I think you’re45:23saying – if I put it within the context45:26of my process is if we go to a slowdown45:29like one that’s beyond stagnating to45:31slow down in the US and then you have45:33political change and you have MMT the45:37dollar is going to get castrated in that45:39environment and those countries that are45:41in quod one that you just showed are45:44gonna have in dollars don’t forget that45:46eeehm does very well when when when the45:49US government is burning its currency at45:51the stake so you know that is you know45:53that is the units the rebalancing of45:56global power so rebalancing of45:57incentives it’s a rebalancing of growth45:59expectations to where you actually have46:01the population growth going okay so46:04that’s maybe another way to think about46:06yeah I I agree with that and it it46:09really depends a little bit on the46:11nature of the crisis I mean obviously at46:13the at the worst of the crisis the46:14dollar was strong because that was sort46:17of the the safe haven currency but as46:19things begin to sort out46:21the dollar may still be strong relative46:23– you’re absolutely right with regard to46:25the EMS but we have I mean if if we46:27follow our sector we you know not only46:29do I do this kind of long term general46:31stuff we actually have particular46:33industries we like and I’ll just mention46:35two of them here because we’ve written46:36about them yeah very particular46:39industries which we’re very bullish on46:41from from a demographic standpoint one46:44is pet care there are a lot of46:47interesting ways you know everyone’s46:49owning pets and boomers and Xers have46:51completely reimagined how we treat our46:53animals right I mean you know everything46:55about them is is you know the food and46:57you know it’s organic it’s every the46:59amount of money we spend on my father47:02treats my his two dogs better than I was47:05ever treated today they know if dogs47:07have now have parents and grandparents47:09and you know they weekend yeah but but47:17another is a huge change there and in47:21particularly assertive although I’m not47:24big social media generally they’ve got47:26the kind of Google Facebook duopoly I’m47:28not very positive on I think that you47:34know online dating is an incredible47:37growth opportunity and we had a piece47:38recently on that because you know47:40virtually everyone is waiting a lot47:42longer to get married older people are47:45getting divorced and that’s an entire47:48area where there’s been very little47:49market penetration in your long the47:51screening process I mean that’s that’s47:52pretty much the other one is cannabis47:55we’ve done a extensive amount of work47:56there you could see that the well we47:58have lifting we home security that does48:01that silly but but it’s it’s not48:03shocking to see Shane Laidlaw as hockey48:07sticking charts on cannabis consumption48:09relative to alcohol consumption yeah and48:11it is he calls it hit paper high or48:14whatever he calls it you know hit for I48:16yeah because it’s a lower it cost less48:18here’s a here’s another question this is48:21this is this is definitely this could48:23take you a whole day to answer this do48:25you need capitalism and favourable48:26demographics for GDP growth48:32well obviously not especially out the48:34GDP growth number you can have it all48:36the time48:37you need you need some form of48:39capitalism just to have any kind of48:40efficiency in your economy so that’s48:42kind of a loaded question I think the48:44more interesting question is do you need48:45democracy and I think that’s becoming a48:48bigger issue I’ve written about that youknow our Millennials giving up ondemocracy I think that’s actually aninteresting global question now we knowfrom a lot of surveys that Millennialsare less interested in democracy thanolder generations and you look at notonly is it true and the UK and in theUnited States but it’s true around theworld now if you look at particularlyEast Asian countries you know with thesenew charismatic leaders in a NarendraModi and India appealing to the theHindu mainstream you look at you knowBurma they’re the Buddhist mainstreamand you know uncle she is appealing inChina to the great Han you know to allof these leaders in Shinzo Ivy appealingtraditional right you and then you go tothis this this madman is in charge ofthe Philippines now you know RodrigoDuterte dirty-dirty duterte as they callit but my point is is that you havethese charismatic authoritarian leaderswho are appealing to the mainstream oftheir countries don’t give a damn aboutwho’s on the fringes right who is votingmost for them younger voters and that isfascinating to me because earlier in thepost-war era the authoritarian leadersmainly were voted for him only about theolder voters younger people didn’t wantthem and that’s changing around and Ipeople often asked me this question whendo we know when the world is going fromhost word of pre war you know when whenare we going from a post-war mood to apre well it’s kind of hard to tell untilyou have the next big crisis right butone key is is that in a in a post-warera it’s the the generation that justcreated the new era they were just wentthrough the crisis so they reallyidentify with the institution‘s theybuild and generally younger people tendto want more freedom they want lessorder they want less rules that wellwrite less conformity and all that buteventually as time goes by rightthose younger leaders are in power andgenerally have a pretty less a fair youknow libertarian world it’s youngerpeople who want more order morecertainty more route you soon I’m goingwith this that is a sign you’re in apre-war little pre-crisis does that lineup with the fourth term absolutely yeahthat’s that’s well that you know I don’tsay pre-war because that kind ofpredisposes about kind of crisis but I Isay pre-crisis pre-crisis yeah for thoseof you that haven’t read the fourthturning that I’m biased because I thinkthat’s your favorite book I think that’smy favorite book I think that wouldprobably be a consensus though is it notyour favorite people’s favorite book51:20that you write it’s it’s either that or51:22the original one we did generations51:24generation shoes yeah that was kind of51:27the first big book I guess we’ve had51:29this question and maybe a good one to51:31wrap up on here because people are51:33constantly asking where do you think51:35Trump the Trump administration fits51:37within your framework of what is the51:39fourth turning I you know Trump and I51:43thought that the two most interesting51:46fascinating and path breakingdevelopments in 2016 were Bernie Sandersand Donald Trump because there’s arecurring edge on both the left and theright of this whole new kind of populismand authoritarianism right the threechairs on the left every bit as much ofpossibilities of thorough tourism on theright and you know Bernie Bernie Sandersis a guy who believes in top-downgovernment just you know government andbaking big decisions creating winnersand losers and you always have to admirethe guy I mean when was the last time wehad leaders just say this is how it’sgonna besingle-payer you know and andMillennials actually gravitate towardthat yeah you know the paradox of choicewhy have so many choices is somethingsmall one choice but it works reallywell right at least and you find thisnow becoming a very dominant view on the52:36left so I think just like Jeremy Corbyn52:39now sort of the you know the elder sort52:40of great champion in the UK of the left52:42of the millennial left and you have52:45Bernie Sanders here but I think that52:47thatthat Donald Trump is the kind of theexponent of the leader the first one whoreally galvanized this new populism butif I had to bet I would say that whenthose final populism finally takes shapein America it’s gonna be a littleafternoon on the right so this is thisis why the you know 2020 election loomsreally large and when you look at youknow futures markets and remember againI come back to this the economy is now53:19at three point something percent53:21unemployment and already you have53:23futures markets predicting right that53:26that Democrats are going to come in and53:28sweep in 2020 wait and until the economy53:32is yeah a little more negative you take53:34that outlook and maybe last question on53:36this if you take that out looking again53:37we’re not I’m not trying to be political53:39I’m not a Republican or Democrat I’m53:40Canadian I’ve said that all the time53:41because it’s it’s it’s of course true53:43but if you look at them if you take that53:46let’s say the economy’s long we have53:47quad three four three quarters in a row53:49that’s my outlook and if that’s the path53:51and and what you just said is still the53:53truth you know what kind of a candidate53:56and what generation could or should they53:58be from within your lens would come out54:01of the Democratic Democratic Party as54:03the as the as a front-runner well this54:06is the big moment for Generation X right54:09you got a lot of candidates in yeah Gen54:12Xers you know you have you have you know54:17Camilla Harris and Bader O’Rourke and54:19you know you know what’s-his-name from54:21New Jersey you know they’re all my age54:23so you’ve Pro cannabis to New Jersey guy54:27yeah but interestingly enough you have a54:33millennial candidate running you know54:35this guy Pete Bennett reach out of South54:37Bend Indiana he’s 37 years old and just54:42to show you and I actually had a piece54:44on that recently I think he came out54:46yesterday but an amazing stat l just54:48leave people this one amazing statistic54:51and that is as as proof of how54:54absolutely disinterested Generation X54:57has been in politics you know they’re54:59way behind the age curve it actually55:01in Congress you know taking the house55:02taking the Senate taking us governor’s55:04at their current age you know boomers55:07had already we’re into the third55:08president and already at pluralities in55:11both the house in the Senate Gen Xers55:13have been so slow55:14you know Gen X is in both parties tend55:16toward the libertarian edge of their55:18party right55:19but as proof positive of how55:21disinterested Gen Xers are in politics55:24we look back and found we looked at all55:26of the contenders for the primaries in55:28the every presidential election since55:33198655:34and for the past almost 30 years55:37the youngest contender in either party55:41was a Boomer all the way up through all55:45the way up through 2012 there were no55:48gen extra candidates actually contending55:51for the presidency obviously in 2016 you55:54had a lot of them the two younger ones55:55were Marco Rubio and that guy from55:57Louisiana you know the governor from55:59louisiana agenda button bobby Jindal56:03they were born in 1975 and interesting56:07Lena 2020 we have a millennial contender56:10so only one year only one president of56:13presidential election was a gen Xer the56:16youngest contender and it’s already56:19moving on to Millennials and this is56:21what anyone who’s read the fourth56:22turning or my books knows we bill and I56:25used to always make the point that56:27Millennials are destined to make an56:29early and strong entrance into politics56:33as a generation and basically filling56:35the vacuum that Gen Xers have left56:38behind even to some extent so they could56:39circumvent Gen X presidential candidates56:42altogether and you know most references56:43and most Gen Xers always knew it was56:45cutting in the cards you know by Stan56:491975 yeah I have a genuine I do not hate56:54but I genuinely don’t like any56:57politician like that I don’t like their56:59parties I don’t like either party and57:01the ones that ran to your point57:03Gen X Rubio like those are like wet57:07Kleenex they feel like that’s not a57:09leader that’s not like you know you57:11don’t memorize your lines and57:12you know so I think that you’re right I57:14mean if you certainly if you take57:15somebody like me I’m just like disgusted57:17by politics and politicians so maybe57:19there is somebody there to inspire57:21somebody because I’d love to change my57:22mind we do we do talk in our ratings57:24about dominant and recessive generations57:26so between the GI generation which57:30fought in World War two you know the57:31so-called greatest generation right of57:33that was in the white house for a long57:36time from John Kennedy you know born in57:38the century all the way up through you57:40know George Bush Senior and then we had57:43a Boomer that completely bypassed the57:46Silent Generation yeah anyone who57:48remembers the Great Depression and World57:50War two as children but were you know57:53not old enough to serve that an entire57:57generation nearly twenty years was57:59completely bypassed for the White House58:01and look what’s coming up they say we we58:04do this we have dominant generations we58:07have recessive generations that’s uh I58:10don’t know if that’s a good or a bad way58:12to end today’s discussion but for us Gen58:15Xers we’re just going to go back into58:16our a political holes and we’re gonna58:18keep you data dependent as we tried to58:20keep you across by the way durations58:22today don’t forget we’re trying to talk58:23about a multi duration framework so58:25whether it’s short term intermediate58:26term or Neil House super long term there58:29are so many different things for us58:30human beings to attempt to contextualize58:32it at the end of the day we don’t know58:34what the real answers are gonna be but58:36we can probability wait how we go along58:38the way in terms of positioning58:40ourselves and being in better spots oops58:42would have been if we were ignorant of a58:44lot of these data’s and economic facts58:50[Music]58:59[Music]
<iframe width=”560″ height=”315″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/uSEHuRP2-cA” frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen></iframe>Neil Howe describes the making of Generation X, those born between 1961-1981
In his view, Gen X is the last generation with memories of an adulthood unsullied by technology, helicopter parenting, full-blown leftism in academia, and other such forces that have made Millennials a world-destroying force.
.. “Before Generation X gets made redundant, I’d like to see us make a last stand,” he proclaims.
.. but surely those young people who increasingly come from non-traditional families are not all getting “helicoptered.” And academic leftism took root in the academia decades ago, thanks to the Boomers (who hardly escape this book blameless; Hennessey considers them and Millennials to be “cut from the same cloth”).
.. “Your generational affiliation provides you with the grammar, syntax, and the context necessary to understand and interpret events,”
.. it is not Millennials themselves from whom America needs saving. It is, rather, the forces of technology, as embodied by the tech overlords of Silicon Valley, who most threaten America.
.. serious explorations of how the more everyday use of tech is changing us: shortened attention spans, reduced human interaction, decreased intelligence. And he leavens it all with a recollection of his tech-free childhood, personalizing his jeremiad, even if there might be some romanticizing nostalgia involved.
.. Hennessey tries to render us willing accomplices to the Silicon Valley “conspiracy”
.. “Encouraged by Silicon Valley’s string of tangible technological successes, not to mention its utopian promises, few millennials will admit a downside to moving every form of human interaction onto the web or disrupting every established way of doing business,” he writes. He calls us, variously, “digital natives,” “digital junkies,” and “digital Maoists.” We are essentially the shock troops of the Digital Age.
.. Millennials are both obsessed by technology and to blame for the woes it causes, Hennessey contends. That conflation, however, is a tactical error, and arguably a logical one as well. Yes, Millennials have ended up — again, by sheer happenstance — as early adopters of technology that has become widely available. At best, though, this makes us second-order antagonists. Or perhaps, I suggest at the risk of indulging in stereotypes about my generation, might this make us not villains but rather victims?
.. Are not the real villains the tech overlords who seek to bestride our economy and refashion it in their own image? Yes, many of them are Millennials, such as Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg. But others belong to different generations: Apple CEO Tim Cook is a Baby Boomer; Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin are both Gen X-ers.
.. one wonders whether he really wanted to write a neo-Luddite tract but decided (or was forced to decide), for whatever reason, to present his argument in its chosen form. For the struggle against technology cuts across generational lines.
(By Ben Shapiro)
Young Americans are moving to the left. On virtually every issue, they support the Democratic party.
.. among likely American voters aged 18-29, fully 65 percent supported Democratic control of Congress. Polls consistently show greater warmth for socialism among millennials than their elders, greater sympathy for regulation, and less interest in protecting core constitutional liberties ranging from freedom of speech to freedom of religion
.. “If you’re not a liberal when you’re 20, you have no heart; if you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 40, you have no brain.” We tell ourselves that as Americans age, get married, have children, and pay taxes, they’ll inevitably move to the right.
.. Older conservatives, clutching the Trump presidency like a security blanket, sound less like steady advocates for calm and more like the man questioned about how things are going just after jumping off the top of the Empire State Building: “So far, so good.”
.. among Generation Xers (born between 1965 and 1980), 29 percent considered themselves liberal in 1994; today, that number has shot up to 43 percent.
..Typically, conservatives combat this sort of broad-based political change by pointing out the extremism of the left. During the Carter era, things certainly looked dark for the GOP, but conservatives were able to point out Carter’s incompetence; after Bill Clinton’s 1992 election victory, Republicans ran against Hillarycare and higher taxes; after Barack Obama’s landslide 2008 election, conservatives made war on Democrats’ overspending and regulatory overreach.
.. Thought leaders like Ta-Nehisi Coates have sought to replace the blue-collar base of Bill Clinton with the intersectional coalition of Barack Obama, using identity politics as a club against Americans who refuse to admit their “white privilege.”
.. Instead of looking at young Americans vs. older Americans, let’s look at young conservatives vs. older conservatives. The data show that young conservatives tend toward libertarianism on issues like drugs and sex but share the same priorities as older conservatives on fiscal and economic issues.
.. It makes sense, then, that liberal social values have resonated with younger Americans. They believe that the case for religious freedom is actually a case for religious bigotry and think that opposition to same-sex marriage reflects a hackneyed version of Old Testament sexual repression. Millennials were raised on the gospel of diversity and tolerance, not the Judeo-Christian moral standards of their grandparents.
.. But the leftward shift on social issues has infused even young religious conservatives. Forty-five percent of millennial evangelicals said they supported same-sex marriage as of 2014; the numbers are undoubtedly higher now
.. Young conservatives in general are far more likely to support gay rights and marijuana decriminalization as well as openness to immigration. But they’re not embracing gay rights and marijuana decriminalization for the same reasons as liberals. Young liberals embrace the LGBTQ agenda because they believe that the strictures of traditional sexual lifestyles are damaging and intolerant; some even embrace marijuana decriminalization because they think that broadening one’s experiences by smoking pot is a necessary precondition to maturity. Young conservatives are far more likely to support same-sex marriage and marijuana decriminalization because they believe that the government should leave everyone alone.
.. Young liberals call for tolerance because they want to promulgate a lifestyle, in other words; young conservatives call for tolerance because they actually believe in tolerance, even of lifestyle choices with which they disagree.
.. Tolerance is a moral touchstone, then, for young Americans on both the left and the right, but for different reasons.
.. All of which suggests young conservatives have a shot at winning over their friends and classmates: They’re operating in the same moral universe as many of their peers.
.. They’re small government, leave-everyone-alone libertarians. Young conservatives may not care about same-sex marriage, but they’re deeply pro-life and pro-gun.
.. They militantly oppose the myth of a racist, sexist America, even as they condemn individual cases of racism and sexism.
.. An incredible 82 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters between the ages of 18 and 24 say they “want another Republican to challenge President Trump for the party’s nomination in 2020.”
.. Why don’t young conservatives like Trump? It’s a question that baffles older conservatives. To older conservatives, Trump has been a savior.
.. Yes, he’s rough around the edges and impolitic; he’s crude about women and ignorant about policy. But he’s politically incorrect, and he speaks the language of the average American. What’s not to like?
.. Young conservatives, however, are more likely to see Trump as an obstacle to progress.
.. they see him mainly as a club the left can wield against the right in perpetuity—a political monster living under the bed that Democrats can dredge up every time conservatives seem to be making headway. They cite his egregious response to the Charlottesville alt-right march and subsequent terror attack and his willingness to wink and nod at the alt-right during the campaign; they point to his nasty comments regarding women, as well as his penchant for bedding porn stars; they cringe at his reported comments about immigrants and balk at his nearly endless list of prevarications.
.. Older conservatives judge Trump on his politics; younger conservatives judge Trump on his values.
.. older conservatives already fought the character battle over Bill Clinton, and they carry the scars from that ordeal. They remember arguing that Bill Clinton was unfit for office based on his treatment of women and his perjury, and they remember losing that argument. They remember arguing that character counts, even as Democrats held aloft the banner of “Lion of the Senate” Teddy Kennedy, who left a woman to drown in his car and made waitress sandwiches with fellow Democratic senator Chris Dodd.
.. Older conservatives remember Mitt Romney, the cleanest candidate for high office in modern American history, being destroyed by the media over pure nonsense. Older conservatives weren’t looking for character in 2016. They were looking for a hammer.
.. Younger conservatives, however, still feel that the battle over character is unfolding, which it is—among young Americans. Young Americans are still trying to decipher which party best reflects their moral values. Trump presents a serious problem for young conservatives trying to make the character argument in favor of the Republican party. Young conservatives didn’t see the battle of 2016 as a battle in which character had already lost. They saw it as presenting a question about their own character.
.. Young conservatives want to be able to tell their friends—all future voters, by the way—that they didn’t stand by silently when a candidate of their party said he could grab women by their private parts.
.. Second, older conservatives saw the 2016 election as a cataclysmic event, perhaps, indeed, the end of the republic. Hillary Clinton posed an existential threat to the future of the country.
.. They believed that Hillary, if elected, would usher in a generation-long rule of the hard left.
.. Donald Trump’s victory, in that view, was a miracle of biblical proportions, the hand of God reaching down and plucking a reality TV star out of the realms of cornball theatrics and plopping him into the Oval Office in the biggest upset in political history.
.. Younger conservatives were far more sanguine about 2016. In their view, Hillary would certainly have been a rotten president. But would she bar the door to all future conservative victories? Younger conservatives thought such an outcome unlikely.
After all, Republicans were likely to retain control of the Senate and the House.
Furthermore, Hillary was widely disliked, burdened by scandal, and unpopular even with her own base.
Older conservatives looked at young Americans and saw the end of the country; young conservatives looked at other young Americans and saw the possibility of change.
.. Third, because young conservatives and older conservatives disagreed about the consequences of 2016, they also disagreed about the level of risk to the Republican party.
.. Thanks to the crisis mentality of older Americans, the brand damage done by Trump became of secondary concern;
thanks to the lack of a crisis mentality among younger conservatives, the brand damage done by Trump became a crucial problem.
.. Young conservatives simply couldn’t understand how so many older conservatives were willing to dispose of key planks of the Republican platform to back Trump, or why so many older conservatives who had preached to them about personal values were suddenly gushing over a man who bragged about sleeping with other men’s wives.
.. Young conservatives knew that they were constantly being called racist, sexist, and homophobic by their comrades at school; they had always responded by saying that they and their party were being slandered. And they were right. But here was Trump—a man who, during the election cycle, feigned ignorance about David Duke—providing a custom-made caricature for the use of young liberals.
.. fourth area of controversy between older and younger conservatives regarding Trump: Is Trump an asset in the fight against political correctness?
.. 71 percent of Americans “believe that political correctness has silenced important discussions our society needs to have.”
.. Older conservatives resonate to the verbal brickbats thrown by President Trump. They see him as a bull in a china shop, but he is our bull in their china shop. That’s the reason Trump could so easily escape punishment for political snafus that would have crushed any other conservative. He routinely claimed his own blunderings were the result of his willingness to fight political correctness. “Sure, he says dumb stuff sometimes,” the argument goes, “but he’s also willing to label the New York Times fake news. Nobody else fights like Trump fights!”
.. Young conservatives, by contrast, see Trump’s strategy for fighting political correctness as counterproductive. It’s one thing to attack politically correct viewpoints with data —to “destroy,” in the common YouTube parlance, political opposition through superior intellectual heft. But saying innately offensive things and then justifying those offensive statements under the rubric of political incorrectness actually undermines the battle against political correctness.
.. The left wants to make the case that when conservatives say they’re being politically incorrect, they’re actually covering for their own bigotry; lending that case a helping hand by promoting bigotry under the guise of fighting political correctness does the left’s work for it.
.. conservatives must stop promoting the notion that policy victories translate to political victory. Foolishly hopeful Republican legislators keep repeating the tired nostrum that if they simply pursue solid policy, young Americans will follow—if they pass tax cuts, cut regulation, and build up the military, they’ll stave off the impending generational electoral tsunami.
.. That argument did little to stir older Americans who had been through the political wars; it didn’t upset seasoned politics-watchers who knew that Hillary Clinton was more than a little deplorable herself. But it worked among young Americans, and it will continue to work so long as conservatives’ response is “but Hillary.”
.. So, how should conservatives respond?
They should respond by acting morally and arguing morally.
First, and most pressingly, with regard to President Trump this means condemning bad behavior.
.. Young Americans aren’t judging Trump. They’ve already judged him. They’re judging you and determining whether or not they can ever vote for the same candidates you endorse based on whether or not they admire your character.
.. Second, conservatives must argue in moral terms, and they must use moral terminology young Americans understand. This means learning to argue on secular grounds rather than religious grounds and recognizing that tolerance is a key value to young Americans.
.. Arguing in secular terms doesn’t mean arguing without reference to values. It means arguing against the controlling hand of the left. Capitalism is good because you own your own labor and you have the right to exchange that labor for someone else’s labor and no one has the right to steal your labor from you. Socialism is evil because it says that a third party can tell you what your labor is worth.
.. Political correctness and identity politics are evil because they utilize censorship to box you into a group identity that denies your individuality.
.. Most of all, conservatives can’t lose hope. A crisis mentality breeds poor decisions and short-term thinking that sacrifices long-term interests. We’ve seen discouraging trendlines before. But they can be reversed. In 1976, it would have been difficult to imagine the Reagan Revolution that was just four years away.
BRETT: The thing about pessimism is that it doesn’t really leave much room for stuff like volunteering or going to meetings.
CLAIRE: “Caring” was actually frowned upon.
.. TROY: Later, of course, flannel plaid shirts were the way to signal you were against the status quo.