National Securities’ Art Hogan believes the consensus view that stocks must retest the March low is wrong.
According to Hogan, there are too many unprecedented factors, including an intentional decision to freeze the economy, to suggest the market will follow a preset course based on historical trends.
“That pace at which we got to the correction here is the fastest that we’ve ever seen,” the firm’s chief market strategist told CNBC’s ″Trading Nation” on Friday. “Usually it takes the Fed and certainly Congress a much longer time to adjust to the here and now and to find the corporate polices to support the economy, and they did that in record time.”
Hogan’s view may be on the more optimistic side, but he’s not expecting a sharp, sustainable rally.
“We’re in a middle ground where we’re a little bit more than 20% off the lows [and] a little bit less than 20% from the highs,” he said. “This is going to be a place we churn through for most of the first half.”
The rebound doesn’t surprise Hogan.
Five days before the S&P 500 and Dow hit their lows, Hogan predicted on “Trading Nation” stocks would bottom before coronavirus cases peak in the United States.
Now, he’s seeing some progress on the virus front.
“If new cases continue to plateau, then 2021 is certainly going to look a whole lot better than 2020,” he added. “I would argue that the second half looks way better than the first half of this year.”
Hogan, who has $15 billion in assets under management, speculates a slow and deliberate reopening of the economy will likely be successful and spark a demand frenzy.
“There has been a lot of delayed consumption,” he said. “There is going to be maybe some pent up economic energy that explodes into the fourth quarter and certainly into 2021.”
It’s a scenario, according to Hogan, that should put Wall Street and Main Street firmly back into the green.
“Corporate America has the ability to get back into place relatively quickly. This is not a great financial crisis,” Hogan said. “Going into this, the U.S. economy was in pretty good darn shape, and so was corporate America’s balance sheets.”
JOE KERNEN: Entitlements ever be on your plate?
PRESIDENT TRUMP: At some point they will be. We have tremendous growth. We’re going to have tremendous growth. This next year I– it’ll be toward the end of the year. The growth is going to be incredible. And at the right time, we will take a look at that. You know, that’s actually the easiest of all things, if you look, cause it’s such a–
JOE KERNEN: If you’re willing–
PRESIDENT TRUMP: –big percentage.
JOE KERNEN: —to do some of the things that you said you wouldn’t do in the past, though, in terms of Medicare–
PRESIDENT TRUMP: Well, we’re going– we’re going look. We also have– assets that we’ve never had. I mean we’ve never had growth like this. We never had a consumer that was taking in, through– different means, over $10,000 a family. We never had the kind of– the kind of things that we have. Look, our country is the hottest in the world. We have the hottest economy in the world. We have the best unemployment numbers we’ve ever had. African American, Asian American. Hispanics are doing so incredibly. Best they’ve ever done. Black. Best they’ve ever done. African American. The numbers are incredible. The poverty numbers. The unemployment and the employment. There’s– there is a difference, actually. But the unemployment and employment numbers for African Americans are the best we’ve ever had. You know, we just– came up with a chart, and it was a very important to number to me. African American youth has the highest, by far, unemployment. The best unemployment numbers that they’ve ever had. And the best employment numbers. Right now we have almost 160 million people working in the United States, and we’ve never even been close to that, Joe.
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Billionaire and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to file paperwork this week in at least one state with an early deadline, although an advisor said the former New York mayor had not made a final decision to run. As the eighth richest person in America with a net worth of $52 billion, his campaign will be well funded. John Hope Bryant, chairman, founder and CEO of Operation Hope, and pollster Frank Luntz joins “Squawk Box” to discuss.
Some big interviews on CNBC on Tuesday with some of the nation’s most powerful business leaders and investors had a common theme: what an Elizabeth Warren presidency would mean for the markets and corporate America. Frank Luntz, pollster and political strategist, joins “Squawk Box” to discuss Warren’s chances of winning.
The main stars of America’s financial trash TV are broken clocks and contrarian indicators who deliver the same sales pitch day after day, week after week, year after year. That is what salesmen do after all.
Once they have been finally called out for being completely wrong for years, they fight back by changing their talking points to focus on trivial rants, such as when the Fed is going to taper or raise interest rates.
Keep in mind that these talking heads focus on this type of nonsense as a way to distract from their investment failures and lousy predictions.
Schiff couldn’t even get this right. The guy is a complete failure, so why does the media promote him constantly?
Peter Schiff has become a very frequent participant in this media dog-and-pony show. Schiff receives interviews every day, and many times multiple times per day from every segment of the Jewish media, from CNBC and FBN, to Bloomberg.
He also gets quoted or discussed in in the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Forbes, Fortune, The Financial Times, you name it.
Accordingly, Peter Schiff could be considered the male version of a “financial Kim Kardashian.”
For anyone out there who isn’t too bright, let me make sure you get the point. That was by no means a compliment.
Think about it. Schiff runs a brokerage firm, Euro Pacific Capital.
So naturally one would expect him to discuss topics like compelling investment sectors and stocks, valuations, earnings, asset allocation strategies and so forth; you know, things competent financial professionals talk about. The same kinds of things an audience wants to hear about.
Even though he is really only a stock broker and not an analyst, he calls himself Euro Pacific Capital’s chief global strategist. But this too is only a superficial designation.
In my professional view, Schiff is really a marketing strategist because that is how he spends the majority of his time. I state this with complete confidence because I have been noting Schiff’s schedule for several years.
Regardless, surely Schiff has people to do “research” for him, letting him know what is going on, right?
Yet, he is constantly talking about trivial topics, like whether the Fed will raise rates over and over instead of talking about relevant issues.
Why might that be?
Maybe, his research results are complete dog shit.
Once you carefully examine Schiff’s track record as well as his record of investment performance and you will see why he has been focusing on trivial events instead of discussing investment and economic forecasts.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is rising in the polls, grabbing the attention of many on Wall Street. Gabriel Zucman, one of the economists who helped design Senator Warren’s tax plan, and Andy Puzder, former CKE Restaurants CEO, join “Squawk Box” to discuss.