Inventors Seldom Capture the Value of their Invention

anscript

00:02
hi everybody I’m Josh constant here at
00:05
TechCrunch Disrupt SF I’m here with
00:07
Peter Thiel of founders fund and Metro
00:09
capital now you’ve talked a lot about
00:11
how you need to choose companies that
00:13
might seem crazy at first to the average
00:15
person otherwise it would be an idea
00:16
that somebody already taken how do you
00:18
tell the difference between crazy and
00:20
crazy like a fox you’re something that
00:21
will actually pan out well you try to
00:24
you try to just always evaluate the
00:27
substance afresh so does the technology
00:30
work you can ask questions about what
00:33
what’s the prehistory of the founders
00:35
have they been working together for a
00:36
while are they are they going to give up
00:39
at the first sign of trouble so I think
00:41
you you want to always focus on the
00:43
substance there are no shortcuts so you
00:46
try to avoid you know coming in with
00:48
biases about what can and can’t work
00:49
ahead of time yet there’s always a
00:51
temptation to come with all sorts of
00:53
sort of one-sentence rules and we’re as
00:56
guilty of that as anybody but but I
00:59
think what’s what’s gone best is you
01:00
find something interesting about it and
01:02
then you try not to get to a yes or no
01:04
decision right away you try to really
01:06
understand the substance keep an open
01:08
mind and understand that so substance
01:11
over-over process every time so it’s
01:14
surely a hard question to answer because
01:16
it’s very generic and everyone every
01:18
startup is different but when you hear
01:19
an idea that you’re wondering if it can
01:21
really work what is it your go-to
01:23
follow-up question to ask an
01:25
entrepreneur pitching you about and what
01:27
is their their philosophy or their
01:29
long-term vision and how likely they are
01:31
to succeed at it well well there’s sort
01:34
of you always want to get the team the
01:36
technology and the business strategy so
01:38
you have to get all three of those to
01:40
work and so if people are if you want to
01:42
talk about the technology we’ll talk
01:44
about the people in the business
01:45
strategy so you go to you go to the the
01:47
other two topics if they don’t want to
01:48
talk about them that much so I wanted to
01:51
ask you a little bit about your
01:52
philosophy and the philosophy of the new
01:54
rich that’s come out of the technology
01:56
scene you know you’re known for having
01:57
very strong perspectives I personally
01:59
went to the seasteading festival of
02:01
ephemeral really fascinated by that way
02:04
of looking at things where we can solve
02:05
the problems ourselves we don’t
02:06
necessarily have to wait for somebody
02:07
else what do you think do you think that
02:09
there’s a different value system amongst
02:12
people who are becoming wealthy out of
02:14
the technology scene opposed to you know
02:16
industries of old it’s always hard to
02:19
generalize but it I I do think there’s
02:21
play something different whether you
02:22
made your money in computers or in say
02:25
resources in the Congo or something like
02:27
that so I do think I do think that
02:29
there’s something generally good about
02:31
technology and generally very positive
02:34
about this as an industry I’m obviously
02:35
a bit biased but I do really I do really
02:38
believe that I think I think
02:40
philanthropy is an area that deserves to
02:43
also be rethought and I always like
02:45
asking these contrarian questions and so
02:46
if the contrary in question businesses
02:48
what great companies nobody’s starting
02:50
in on implants would be the contrarian
02:53
question I think is always something
02:54
like what great cause does nobody want
02:57
to support and and so I always uh I one
03:01
of the questions I always like to ask is
03:02
why is it cause unpopular I don’t want
03:04
to give money to popular cause I feel
03:05
those are well enough funded I think the
03:07
unpopular causes that deserve to get
03:09
more its me it seems like when people
03:11
come up so quickly in the technology
03:13
world because of the way that you know
03:14
equity structures work and how quickly
03:16
you can get to market and make something
03:18
really big with the modern distribution
03:20
channels that you know if somebody
03:22
becomes rich in five years it feels like
03:24
maybe that money doesn’t really belong
03:25
all in my bank account like it’s kind of
03:27
belongs to the world it was kind of
03:28
random that it ended up with me opposed
03:30
to somebody who maybe came up through a
03:31
more hierarchical world worked every day
03:33
for twenty years and when they get to
03:34
the end of it they say this money really
03:36
is mine do you see any of that
03:37
perspective that people feel like they
03:39
don’t really have a right to the money
03:40
that they’ve earned in technology and
03:42
that it’s better for them to give it
03:43
away or like what is the philosophy of
03:45
people who are taking the giving pledge
03:46
or making those really big donations
03:48
well I think I think in general it is um
03:52
it is that that they they want to give
03:55
something back to society I’m not sure
03:57
they I think that mostly do think that
03:59
they actually deserve all of it but I
04:01
think these are some of what they got I
think the reality is that what’s unusual
about the tech industry in Silicon
Valley
is that the inventors are capturing
anything at all the history of
innovation has been one where most the
people who invent things get nothing at
all and so the Wright brothers came up
with the first airplane but didn’t get
rich
or you know even the original
Edison versus Tesla you say Tesla is the
greater in
and that was the better way to go but
somehow Edison edged out Tesla and so
most of innovation has actually not not
gone to the people who came up with
things you have to to make money you
have to do two things number one you
have to create something of value for
the world and number two you have to
capture some fraction of the value you
create and and often people have
completely failed of doing the second so
I think Silicon Valley is very unusual
04:51
in that there’s this large class of
04:54
innovative people that are actually able
04:56
to capture some fraction of the value
04:58
they’re creating that’s great so now
05:00
that we have founders who are making a
05:01
fortune by making something everyone in
05:03
the world wants hopefully they can make
05:05
some difference for the better in the
05:06
world as well yes yes and I always I
05:09
always would say that you want to make a
05:11
difference for the better in a way
05:12
that’s not just looking for status not
05:14
just in a respectable way but people
05:17
should try to be courageous in their
05:19
philanthropy

Rana Foroohar, “Don’t Be Evil”

00:05
very excited to introduce Rana Rana Zay
00:08
is the global business columnist and
00:11
natural times and CNN’s global economic
00:13
analysts previously she’s been the
00:15
assistant managing editor in charge of
00:16
Business and Economics at time as well
00:18
as the magazine’s economic columnist and
00:20
spent 13 years at Newsweek as an
00:22
economic foreign affairs editor and
00:24
correspondent and in her new book don’t
00:26
be evil which i think is a great title
00:29
Rhonda Chronicles how far big tech has
00:31
fallen from its original vision of free
00:33
information and digital democracy
00:35
drawing on nearly 30 years of experience
00:36
reporting on the technologies sector
00:39
Ronna traces the evolution of companies
00:40
such as Google Facebook Apple Amazon
00:46
into behemoths that monetize people’s
00:49
data spread misinformation and hate
00:51
speech and threaten citizens privacy she
00:53
also shows how we can fight back by
00:55
creating a framework that both fosters
00:57
innovation and protects us from threats
00:59
posed by digital technology her book is
01:02
already garnering widespread praise with
01:04
the Guardian calling it a masterly
01:05
critique of the internet pioneers who
01:07
now dominate our world so without
01:08
further ado please help me in welcoming
01:10
Rana for a heart to politics and prose
01:16
thank you I am so honored to be here
01:19
it’s really a pleasure this is one of my
01:22
favorite bookstores probably my favorite
01:24
bookstore in Washington and so it’s just
01:27
a huge pleasure I thought I would start
01:30
by just talking a little bit about how I
01:32
got the idea to write this book it’s
01:33
actually my second book my first book
01:35
makers and takers was a look at the
01:38
financial sector and how it no longer
01:40
serves business so I like to kind of
01:42
take on these big industry-wide maybe
01:45
take down so we’ve the word but kind of
01:49
look at an ecosystem and economic
01:50
ecosystem see how it’s working or not
01:52
working I got the idea for this book
01:56
probably two months into my new job at
02:00
the Financial Times
02:01
I was hired in 2017 to be the chief
02:05
business commentary writer so my my job
02:08
was to sort of look at the top world’s
02:11
business stories economic stories and
02:13
try to make sense of them in commentary
02:14
and when I do that I tend to try and
02:17
follow the money in order to narrow the
02:18
funnel of where to put my focus and I
02:20
had come across a really really
02:22
interesting statistic that 80%
02:25
of the world’s wealth corporate wealth
02:27
was living in 10% of companies and these
02:30
were the companies that had the most
02:31
data personal data and intellectual
02:34
property and so the biggest of those
02:36
were the big tech platforms that my my
02:38
book kind of tries to make icons of
02:41
we’re using all the candy colors here
02:43
the fangs Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix
02:47
Google so that was a pretty stunning
02:50
statistic and it was interesting because
02:51
I was thinking about how wealth since
02:54
2008 had transferred from the financial
02:56
sector into the big tech sector and that
02:59
had happened really quietly without a
03:02
whole lot of commentary in the press now
03:05
at the same time I was starting to kind
03:06
of dig into this story something else
03:08
happened a much more personal episode I
03:11
came home one day and I there was a
03:14
credit card bill waiting for me and I
03:16
opened it up and I started looking
03:17
through and there were all these tiny
03:19
charges in the amount of dollar
03:21
ninety-nine three dollars five dollars
03:22
whatever and I noticed that they were
03:25
all from the app store and I thought oh
03:28
my gosh I must have been hacked and then
03:30
I thought who else has my password my
03:33
ten-year-old son Alex I see nods from
03:38
parents and others so I go downstairs
03:42
and I find Alex on the couch with his
03:44
phone which is his usual after-school
03:46
position and I say you know what what’s
03:50
up do you know anything about this and
03:51
he sort of stunned and oh yes oh that
03:55
yeah and turns out alex has gotten very
03:58
fond of a game called FIFA Mobile which
04:01
is an online soccer game and it’s one of
04:03
these games that’s dude that you can
04:04
download it for free but once you get
04:07
into the game and start playing you have
04:10
to buy stuff
04:11
in-app purchases it’s called our loot
04:13
boxes is another another name so if you
04:16
want to move up the rankings and do well
04:18
in the game
04:19
you have to buy virtual Ronaldo or some
04:22
new shoes for your player and nine
04:24
hundred dollars and one month later Alex
04:27
was at the top of the rankings but I was
04:32
horrified I was actually horrified and
04:34
fascinated in fact I mean as
04:36
mother I was horrified his phone was
04:39
immediately confiscated passwords were
04:41
changed limitations were put into place
04:44
by the way he now officially is allowed
04:47
only one hour a day on his phone he’s 13
04:51
years old the average for that age is 7
04:54
hours a day national average now he
04:57
sneaks in an extra I think he probably
04:58
gets about 90 minutes because I can’t
05:00
police him all the time on the way to
05:01
the on the way to school but it’s I mean
05:04
to me that is a stunning fact that the
05:06
average American 13 year old spent 7
05:09
hours day on their phone anyway so I was
05:12
horrified as a parent but I was
05:13
fascinated as a business writer because
05:15
I thought this is the most amazing
05:17
business model I have ever seen and I
05:20
have to learn everything about it and
05:22
right about that time someone had come
05:26
to see Mia a man named Tristan Harris
05:28
who’s one of the characters in my book
05:29
and Tristan is a really interesting guy
05:32
he was formerly the chief ethics officer
05:35
at Google and he was trying to bring
05:39
goodness and not evil to the company and
05:42
make sure that all the all the products
05:45
and services were functioning sort of a
05:47
human interest and then he realized he
05:48
was not having any luck doing that
05:49
within the company so he decided to go
05:52
outside and start something called the
05:54
Center for Humane technology and Tristan
05:57
had become really really worried about
05:59
the core business model that is it’s
06:02
particularly relevant for Google and
06:05
Facebook but is also a big part of
06:07
Amazon’s model and and it’s really the
06:08
model that another author Shoshanna
06:10
Zubov who recently wrote a wonderful
06:12
book on this topic would call
06:14
surveillance capitalism and so it’s the
06:16
idea of companies coming in and tracking
06:20
everything you are doing online and
06:22
increasingly offline you know if you
06:24
have your if you have an Android phone
06:25
it might know where you are in the
06:27
grocery store if you’re in a car with
06:29
smart technology your your location
06:32
coordinates can be tracked so all of
06:35
this is serving to build a picture of
06:37
you that is then used to be sold to
06:41
advertisers and then you can be targeted
06:44
with what’s called hyper targeted
06:46
advertising which is essentially why for
06:49
example
06:50
if I go online to look for a hotel in
06:53
California I might get a certain price
06:55
but someone else might get a different
06:57
price so this is a really important
06:59
thing we are looking at different
07:01
internets right there are subtle
07:04
differences but they’re there and this
07:06
data profile that is being built up is
07:08
splitting us as individual consumers but
07:12
I would argue that it’s also splitting
07:14
us as citizens and I’ll when I get to
07:16
the readings I’ll kind of flush that out
07:18
a bit more but Tristan
07:20
kind of turned me on to this business
07:23
model and he also helped me connect the
07:25
dots between this business model and
07:27
what had happened to my son because it
07:29
turns out that the technologies these
07:31
sorts of nudges that take you down a
07:34
game or that bring you to certain places
07:36
on Amazon or that give you a certain
07:39
kind of search result or purchasing
07:41
option on Google are part of an entire
07:45
field called capped ology which is kind
07:49
of an Orwellian word and these these
07:52
technologies actually come largely out
07:54
of something called the Stanford
07:55
persuasive technology lab so there is an
07:58
entire industry that is designed to
08:01
track your behavior and pull in things
08:03
like behavioral psychology casino gaming
08:06
techniques and then layer those on to
08:09
apps that will push you towards making
08:13
purchasing decisions or perhaps even
08:15
other kinds of decisions political
08:16
decisions that might be good for certain
08:19
actors and it’s interesting because when
08:22
I started to think about all this one of
08:24
the things I really wanted to do in this
08:26
book was to cry try and create a single
08:28
narrative arc to take folks through this
08:31
20 year evolution of this industry from
08:34
the mid-1990s which is really when the
08:36
consumer internet was born till now and
08:39
at the time I was writing and and still
08:41
probably today you could argue that
08:43
Facebook was the company that was
08:45
getting the most negative attention for
08:48
a lot of the economic and political
08:49
ramifications of its business model but
08:51
if you go back to the very beginning
08:53
Google is the most interesting way to
08:56
track this because Google really
08:59
invented the targeted advertising
09:01
business model they really invented
09:03
surveillance capitalism and one of the
09:05
things that is fascinating and and
09:06
sometimes I’m asked what’s the most
09:08
surprising thing that you found when
09:10
writing this book and really the most
09:11
surprising thing is it was all hiding in
09:14
plain sight so if you go back to the
09:17
original paper the Larry Page and Sergey
09:19
Brin who were the founders of Google did
09:21
in 1998 while at Stanford as graduate
09:25
students they actually lay out they lay
09:28
out what a giant search engine would
09:30
look like how it would function but then
09:31
how you might pay for it and if you go
09:34
down to page 33 there is a section in
09:36
the appendix called advertising and its
09:38
discontents and it essentially says that
09:42
if you monetize a search engine in this
this way with hyper targeted advertising
the interests of the users and the
interests of the advertisers be they
companies or who knows what public
entities are eventually going to come
into conflict and so they actually
recommend that there be some kind of
academic search engine an open search
engine in the public interest so this to
10:05
me first of all is fascinating that it
10:07
was just there all along and fascinating
10:11
that very few people have read that
10:13
entire paper even though even those that
10:16
write about it which in some ways kind
10:18
of goes to the point that in the last 20
10:20
years we all do a lot less reading not
10:22
folks here but but in general we do less
10:25
reading there was actually a fascinating
10:26
study that came out recently from common
10:28
sense media which is Jim’s dyers group
10:30
in California that tracks children’s
10:33
behaviors online teenagers only
10:36
one-third of them read for pleasure more
10:39
than once a month
10:41
long-form articles doesn’t matter if
10:43
you’re reading on an e-book or device
10:44
but long-form articles books only once a
10:47
month for pleasure so all our entire
10:50
world has been changed economically
10:52
these companies have huge monopoly power
10:54
politically we’re all kind of living
10:56
with the ramifications of this new world
10:58
of social media disinformation fake news
11:01
and cognitively our brains are changing
11:05
our behaviors are changing so connecting
11:07
all of those things was really what I
11:10
was trying to get at in this book and so
11:13
I’m gonna read two or three maybe short
11:16
excerpt
11:17
and then we can leave a lot of time for
11:19
questions so that people can kind of
11:20
dive into as much of this as they want
11:23
and I’ll start perhaps with my very
11:28
first meeting with the Googlers Larry
11:33
Page and Sergey Brin who I met not in
11:36
Silicon Valley but in Davos the Swiss
11:39
gathering spot of the global power elite
11:42
where they had taken over a small Chalet
11:44
to meet with a select group of media the
11:47
year was 2007 the company had just
11:50
purchased YouTube a few months back and
11:52
it seemed eager to convince skeptical
11:54
journalists that this acquisition wasn’t
11:56
yet another death blow to copyright paid
11:58
content creation and the viability of
12:00
the news publications for which we
12:02
worked
12:02
unlike the buttoned-up consulting types
12:05
or the suited executives from the old
12:07
guard multinational corporations that
12:09
roamed the promenades of davos their
12:11
tasseled loafers slipping on the icy
12:13
paths the Googlers with a cool bunch
12:15
they wore fashionable sneakers and their
12:17
chalet was sleek white and stark with
12:19
giant cubes masquerading as chairs in a
12:21
space that looked as though it had been
12:23
repurposed that morning by designers
12:25
flown in from the valley in fact it may
12:27
have been and if so Google would not
12:29
have been alone in such access I
12:30
remember attending a party once in Davos
12:32
hosted by Napster founder and former
12:34
Facebook president Sean Parker that
12:37
featured giant taxidermy bears and a
12:39
musical performance by John Legend back
12:42
in the Google Chalet Brin and page
12:44
projected a youthful earnestness as they
12:46
explained the company’s involvement in
12:48
or authoritarian China and insisted
12:50
they’d never be like Microsoft which was
12:52
considered the corporate bully and
12:53
monopolist at the time what about the
12:55
future of news we wanted to know after
12:57
admitting that page read only free news
12:59
online whereas Brin often bought the
13:01
sunday New York Times in print it’s nice
13:03
he said cheerfully
13:04
the duo affirmed exactly what we
13:07
journalists wanted to hear Google they
13:09
assured us would never threaten our
13:10
livelihoods
13:11
yes advertisers were indeed migrating
13:14
and mass from our publications to the
13:15
web where they could target consumers
13:17
with a level of precision that the print
13:19
world could barely imagine but not to
13:21
worry Google would generously retool our
13:22
business models so we too could thrive
13:24
in the new digital world I was much
13:27
younger than and not the admittedly
13:29
cynical business journalist that I have
13:30
since
13:31
and yet I listened skeptically
13:32
skeptically to that happy future of news
13:35
like lecture whether Google actually
13:37
intended to develop some brilliant new
13:40
revenue model or not what alarmed me was
13:42
that none of us were asking a far more
13:44
important question sitting towards the
13:46
back of the room somewhat conscious of
13:48
my relatively junior status I hesitated
13:50
waiting until the final moments of the
13:52
meeting before raising my hand excuse me
13:55
I said we’re talking about all this like
13:57
journalism is the only thing that
13:58
matters but isn’t this really about
13:59
democracy if newspapers and magazines
14:02
are all driven out of business by Google
14:04
or companies like it I asked how are
14:06
people gonna find out what’s going on
14:07
Larry Page looked at me with an odd
14:10
expression as if he were surprised that
14:11
someone should be asking such a naive
14:13
question oh yes we’ve got a lot of
14:16
people thinking about that
14:17
not to worry his tone seemed to say
14:19
Google had the engineers working on that
14:22
little democracy problem next question I
14:26
read that because I’m kind of amazed
14:30
there is still a real lack of
14:34
understanding I think in the valley
14:36
about some of the real negative
14:39
externalities of what have been let’s
14:41
face it amazing technologies I mean we
14:43
you know where would we be without
14:44
search in our smartphones we all
14:46
carrying around the power of a mainframe
14:47
in our pockets but as a journalist I
14:51
think there’s really been a an inability
14:54
of these companies to kind of own up to
14:56
you know some of the bad stuff that they
14:59
have wrought and I think that that still
15:00
considers oh sorry still continues to be
15:03
to be the case one of the other points
15:06
that I try and make in the book is that
15:09
the problems I’m talking about have
15:12
actually moved outside of just the big
15:14
four flat platform firms that that we’re
15:16
moving into a world in which
15:17
surveillance capitalism is going to be
15:19
part of the healthcare system and the
15:21
financial system and really every kind
15:24
of business is now using this as its
15:26
model so for example if you buy coffee
15:29
at Starbucks Starbucks knows a lot about
15:30
you Johnson & Johnson knows a lot about
15:33
you there there are firms watching you
15:35
all the time and so we’re really at a
15:37
pivot point I think where we have to ask
15:40
as a society what are the deeper
15:43
implications of this and our
15:44
okay with them and so I would like to
15:47
read another excerpt where I look at how
15:50
this model is is moving into the
15:52
insurance sector and what that means so
15:58
far data has been obtained via computers
16:01
and mobile devices but now with the rise
16:03
of personal digital assistants like
16:05
Amazon’s Alexa Google’s home mini and
16:07
Apple Siri now at 30 and now in a third
16:10
of American homes with triple digit
16:12
sales growth a year the human voice is
16:14
the new gold while reports of Alexa
16:16
Alexa and Siri listening in on
16:18
conversations and phone calls are
16:19
disputed there’s no question that they
16:21
can hear every word you say and from
16:23
there it’s a short step to them using
16:24
that knowledge to direct your purchasing
16:26
decisions it isn’t much of a longer step
16:28
to see the political implications
16:30
already some researchers worry that
16:32
digital assistants will become even more
16:33
powerful tools than social media for
16:36
election manipulation certainly none of
16:38
us will be unaffected consider consider
16:41
that homeowner oops sorry
16:43
I’m reading from a reading from the
16:44
wrong part I think apologies somehow
16:54
picked the wrong section here anyway I’m
16:57
going to talk you through this example
16:58
because it’s it’s something that is
17:01
already out there I had a conversation a
17:03
couple of years ago with an executive
17:04
from Zurich Financial which is a big
17:07
financial company they do insurance many
17:10
parts of the world they will now if
17:12
you’d like them to put sensors in your
17:14
home or in your car and if you have for
17:18
example as I do you live in a 1901
17:20
townhouse let’s say you’re upgrading
17:22
your pipes you get a check you get a you
17:24
know a positive mark and you may see
17:26
your insurance premium go down but let’s
17:30
say your kid is smoking a joint in their
17:32
bedroom and the sensor picks up on that
17:34
you then get a black mark here and your
17:36
premium may go up same again in your car
17:39
if you’re speeding your insurance
17:42
company will know and so on and so forth
17:43
now you can either like this or not
17:46
depending on where you sit in the
17:48
socio-economic spectrum but what’s very
17:50
very interesting is that entire business
17:53
model a pooled risk business model
17:55
that’s what insurance is it’s now been
17:57
completely dissed
17:58
so you can be targeted and split so this
18:02
is no longer about society pulling risk
18:04
a saree pooling risk this is about
18:06
individuals having to own the risk so if
18:09
you take that to its natural conclusion
18:12
you can imagine an elite up here that
18:17
has access to special pricing and all
18:19
kinds of great products but you can also
18:21
imagine an uninsurable group of people
18:25
at the bottom and then who is going to
18:28
pick up that risk now the public sector
18:30
may be maybe they’ll be a junk bond
18:33
market for insurance either way you have
18:36
a split in society that didn’t exist
18:39
before and that was always the business
18:42
model here you know you go back and read
18:44
some of the early work of someone like
18:46
Hal Varian for example who was the chief
18:48
economist at Google splitting pricing
18:51
down to the individual was always the
18:53
point of platform technology firms like
18:56
Google or Facebook or Amazon splitting
18:58
individuals out so they could be
18:59
targeted in different ways but that not
19:01
only splits pricing it splits Society
19:05
and so that’s kind of really the the
19:07
core issue I want to get out here
19:10
I think I’ll maybe read just just one
19:13
more excerpt and then we can do we have
19:15
we have time yeah and then we’ll open it
19:17
up for questions after that my first
19:22
book just to mention again was about the
19:25
financial industry and one of the things
19:26
that strikes me is that big tech
19:28
companies have in some way become the
19:30
new too big to fail entities not only
19:33
are they holding more wealth and power
19:35
than the largest banks but in some ways
19:36
they function like banks they have a
19:39
tremendous amount of money they use it
19:41
to buy up corporate debt if that debt
19:44
were to go bad that could actually be
19:46
the beginnings of another financial
19:47
crisis and so that’s kind of a part of
19:49
this story that really hasn’t gotten out
19:51
there so let me let me read just two or
19:54
three more pages for you on that topic
19:57
the late great management guru Peter
20:00
Drucker once said in every major
20:01
economic downturn in US history the
20:03
villains have been the heroes during the
20:05
preceding boom I can’t help but wonder
20:08
if that might be the case over the next
20:10
few years as the you know
20:11
it states and possibly the world heads
20:13
towards its next big slowdown downturns
20:16
historically come about once every
20:18
decade and it’s been more than that
20:19
since the 2008 financial crisis back
20:22
then banks were the too-big-to-fail
20:24
institutions responsible for our falling
20:26
stock portfolios home prices and
20:28
salaries technology companies by
20:30
contrast have led the market upswing
20:32
over the past decade but this time
20:34
around it’s the big tech firms that
20:36
could play the spoiler role you wouldn’t
20:39
think that it could be so when you look
20:40
at the biggest and richest tech firms
20:42
today take Apple for example warren
20:44
buffett says he wished he owned even
20:45
more Apple stock Goldman Sachs is
20:47
launching a new credit card with the
20:48
tech Titan which became the world’s
20:50
first trillion-dollar market cap company
20:52
in 2018 but hidden within these bullish
20:55
headlines are a number of disturbing
20:57
economic trends of which Apple is
20:59
already exemplar study this one company
21:02
and you begin to understand how big tech
21:04
companies the new too-big-to-fail
21:05
institutions could indeed sow the seeds
21:08
of the next financial crisis the first
21:11
thing to consider is the financial
21:12
engineering done by such firms like most
21:15
of the largest and most profitable
21:17
multinational companies Apple has loads
21:19
of cash about 300 billion as well as
21:22
plenty of debt close to 122 billion
21:24
that’s because like nearly every other
21:27
large rich company it has parked most of
21:30
its spare cash in offshore bond
21:32
portfolios over the last ten years at
21:34
the same time since the 2008 crisis is
21:37
that it is issued cheap debt at rates to
21:41
do sorry it is issued cheap rate sorry
21:44
cheap debt at low rates in order to do
21:48
record amounts of share buybacks and
21:50
dividends Apple’s responsible about a
21:53
quarter of the 407 billion in buybacks
21:55
and out since the Trump tax bill was
21:57
passed in December of 2017 but buybacks
22:00
have bolstered mainly the top 10% of the
22:03
US population that owns 84% of all stock
22:06
the fact that share buybacks have become
22:08
the biggest single use of corporate cash
22:10
for over a decade now has buoyed markets
22:13
but it’s also increased the wealth
22:15
divide which many common economists
22:17
believe is that not only the single
22:19
biggest factor in slower than historic
22:21
trend growth but is also driving
22:22
political populism which threatens the
22:25
good system itself that phenomenon has
22:28
been put on steroids by the rise of yet
22:30
another trend epitomized by Apple
22:33
intangibles such as intellectual
22:35
property and brands now make up a much
22:37
larger share of wealth in the global
22:39
economy the digital economy has a
22:41
tendency to create super stars since
22:43
software and internet services are so
22:45
scalable and they enjoy network effects
22:50
let’s see do but as these as software
22:56
and internet services become a bigger
22:58
part of the economy they reduce
23:00
investment across the economy as a whole
23:02
and that’s not only because banks are
23:03
reluctant to lend to businesses whose
23:06
intangible assets may simply disappear
23:08
if they go belly-up but because of the
23:10
winner-take-all effect that a handful of
23:12
companies including Apple Amazon and
23:14
Google enjoy so to sum this up in plain
23:17
English as this handful of companies has
23:20
gotten bigger and more powerful
23:21
investment in the overall decline
23:23
economy has declined the number of jobs
23:26
that they’re creating relative to their
23:28
market size is much lower than that in
23:30
the past so you have the superstar
23:32
economy that has become kind of a
23:33
winner-take-all game I think that we’re
23:37
going to probably see some kind of a
23:39
market correction in the next couple of
23:41
years it’s going to be very interesting
23:43
at that point to see whether tech leads
23:45
the markets down and whether you might
23:47
then see a kind of an Occupy Silicon
23:49
Valley sentiment as you did in 2008 with
23:53
Occupy Wall Street I think that that’s
23:54
really quite possible we can delve more
23:57
into that if you’d like but I think I
23:59
want to stop here and be respectful of
24:01
question time and there are parts that
24:04
you guys want to hear more about or
24:06
particular areas that I could read more
24:08
from you can let me know go ahead
24:15
because sure we don’t get to speak very
24:18
often you and I one is you’ve doubtless
24:23
read about Bloomberg’s decision recently
24:26
to forbade its reporters from covering
24:28
Michael Bloomberg yeah yet The
24:31
Washington Post has no problem
24:34
investigating Vsauce do you see is that
24:38
a problem for you have you thought about
24:40
that is that a and so have any
24:43
consistency that should bother at
24:45
financial journalists and the second
24:46
question is how important for any
24:51
solution to the problems you you raise
24:53
would an tights for the revival of
24:56
antitrust be s we see on the continent
24:59
where it’s more aggressive and among
25:01
some of the the Democratic candidates
25:04
for the president well so let me take
25:06
the antitrust question first that’s
25:08
actually important part of the book
25:10
there’s an entire chapter on antitrust
25:12
and I think we probably are gonna see
25:15
some shifts as folks may know since the
25:19
1980s onward antitrust in America has
25:23
basically been predicated on price so as
25:25
long as consumer prices were falling it
25:28
was perceived that companies could be as
25:30
big as they wanted that it wasn’t a
25:31
problem but one of the things I look at
25:34
in the book is this this shift to a
25:36
world in which transactions are being
25:39
done not in dollars but in data so
25:42
that’s a that’s a barter transaction
25:43
really and one of the things that’s so
25:45
interesting and this is actually a way
25:47
in another way in which Silicon Valley
25:49
is similar to Wall Street the
25:50
transaction is really opaque so you
25:53
don’t know essentially how much you’re
25:55
paying for the supposedly free service
25:58
that you’re receiving that is a very
26:02
difficult market to create fairness
26:04
within and it probably makes the Chicago
26:07
School notion of consumer prices going
26:10
down no problem I think probably
26:13
irrelevant and so there’s two ways in
26:15
which that’s being dealt with you have
26:17
the rise of this new Brandeis school of
26:19
thinking in which you know maybe this is
26:22
really about power maybe maybe we should
26:25
think about the big tech firms
26:26
we do the nineteenth-century railroads
26:28
we’re alright you know you had at one
26:30
point railroad Titans that would come in
26:33
and build tracks and then own the cars
26:35
and then own the things that were in the
26:37
cars and eventually that became a
26:39
zero-sum game and it’s you know it’s as
26:42
folks probably know we’re in a period in
26:44
which there’s as much concentration of
26:46
wealth and power as there was in the
26:47
Gilded Age so I could imagine very
26:50
easily a scenario in which you could
26:51
justify Amazon say being the platform
26:55
for e-commerce but not being able to
26:57
compete in the specific areas of fashion
27:01
or you know whatever else they’re
27:03
selling against other customers and in
27:05
fact that’s already the case in the
27:06
financial sector that big companies that
27:09
trade let’s say aluminum you know as
27:12
Goldman Sachs did this is what it ran
27:14
into a suit a few few years ago that it
27:16
was both owning all the aluminum and
27:18
trading it and that’s that’s
27:20
anti-competitive and so that became an
27:22
issue for the Fed so I think we probably
27:24
are going to see that kind of ruling as
27:26
for the post and journalism you know
27:29
it’s funny I have some friends that are
27:30
they’re quite influential to post and
27:34
they say that Bezos is pretty hands-off
27:37
I mean I can’t I can’t vouch for that
27:38
one thing I will say is that Amazon did
27:41
put this book on the top 20 nonfiction
27:43
what Stern’s a month so you know I don’t
27:46
know if that’s a ploy to make me think
27:48
that they’re they’re being really fair
27:49
but from probably Jeff Bezos I don’t
27:52
know I he probably not thinking that
27:53
much about this book or me but anyway
27:56
next question go ahead so it seems like
27:59
some of the major decisions that these
28:01
big tech companies are making are in
28:04
regard to fake news and how they’re
28:06
moderating fake news or the lack of it
28:08
so have you seen maybe an approach by
28:11
any current social media platform or any
28:13
proposed plans in place that you think
28:15
would be best for moderating fake news
28:17
that’s such a good question so just to
28:20
kind of pull back the the two points of
28:22
view on that are hey look you know the
28:26
platform tech companies are essentially
28:27
giant media and advertising firms right
28:30
I mean if you look at the business model
28:31
of a Google or a Facebook it’s
28:34
essentially just like the Financial
28:35
Times or CNN it’s just much more
28:37
effective and it can be targeted to the
28:39
individual
28:40
that means that these firms have taken
28:42
you know 85 90 percent of the app new
28:45
digital advertising pie in the last few
28:47
years now given that they function as
28:49
media companies should they not be
28:51
liable for disinformation in the way
28:55
that a media company would be so if I
28:57
print something incorrect at the FT
28:59
that’s you know the the paper and also
29:02
my hide on the line there I think that
29:05
we should actually think about rolling
29:08
back some of those loopholes that these
29:09
firms enjoy since the mid-1990s onwards
29:12
I think that they are going to have to
29:14
take some responsibility now the
29:16
question is do we want Mark Zuckerberg
29:18
being the minister of truth and that’s
29:20
that’s that’s a really tough question
29:23
what I would prefer is for the
29:26
government to actually you know for
29:28
democratically elected governments to
29:29
come up with rules about what is and
29:32
isn’t appropriate and to not have
29:34
individual companies making those
29:36
choices I think we’re in a period right
29:38
now where you know you’ve got Twitter
29:40
you’ve got Google to a certain extent
29:41
coming out saying okay we recognize we
29:43
need to do things differently that’s
29:44
putting pressure on Facebook but at the
29:46
end of the day we’re gonna have to have
29:47
I think an entirely new framework not
29:51
just in this area but also in taxation
29:53
in you know an antitrust which we’ve
29:56
already talked about this is the shift
29:58
that we’re going through is I think the
30:00
new Industrial Revolution it’s a 70 year
30:03
transition and it’s going to require a
30:04
lot of different frameworks relative to
30:07
what we already have so the answer is no
30:10
I don’t see any particular company that
30:12
has come up with the right framework yet
30:14
any other questions
30:16
oh yeah I’d like to go back to antitrust
30:18
for a minute the Washington Post put up
30:20
an article just this afternoon about how
30:23
Apple is changing its business model and
30:25
it’s different as you know it’s
30:27
differentiated itself in the market by
30:29
saying they care about privacy well now
30:32
they are moving from a a device company
30:38
to a services company according to the
30:40
article and they are used and they are
30:43
using privacy as a lever to provide
30:46
services that their that other smaller
30:51
companies like tile which is the example
30:54
the article has used to create a market
30:59
for itself right and so it says in the
31:03
article that the feds are considering
31:04
looking at antitrust measures against
31:06
Apple but I think it raises a bigger
31:09
question that you pointed to which is
31:13
that the models of antitrust don’t work
31:16
anymore so in terms of privacy lots of
31:22
people have talked about monetizing
31:24
privacy getting paid yeah data but how
31:27
do you think from an economic point of
31:30
view we as a society need to look at the
31:33
role of privacy and the role of
31:35
antitrust together to somehow change the
31:38
way we think about these companies
31:41
because in addition we’ve got
31:43
consolidation in the marketplace so yeah
31:45
no longer fair competition you can’t
31:48
become another Amazon right easily
31:51
because there are so many big so mate
31:53
because the players are big and there
31:55
are so few of them in each part of the
31:58
economy yeah a right so there’s a lot in
32:00
what you’ve just said for starters I
32:03
think you’re hitting on something really
32:04
important which I get at in my solutions
32:06
chapter that this is such a huge shift
32:09
and it’s touching so many different
32:11
areas and we’ve talked about privacy
32:13
we’ve talked about antitrust we haven’t
32:15
even gotten into national security you
32:17
know civil liberties I mean there there
32:19
are so many different areas and when you
32:21
one of the things I noticed when I sat
32:23
down to write the solution sections you
32:25
know when you do a think book you always
32:26
have to have the solutions section and
32:28
you know the publisher wants like that
32:29
Silver Bullet thing and you look at this
32:32
and you notice that when you pull a
32:33
lever here it effects something in this
32:35
other areas so I think that’s one reason
32:38
why we should have a national committee
32:41
to actually look at what are all the
32:43
questions it’s when I speak to folks
32:45
particularly in DC policymakers there’s
32:47
you know the antitrust camp here the
32:49
privacy camp here the security folks
32:50
there that conversation needs to be
32:52
happening in a 360 way and it is
32:54
happening much more so that way in
32:57
Europe I will say I just came off of two
32:59
weeks of book touring in Europe and the
33:02
conversation there I think is much more
33:04
developed and they seem to be to go to
33:06
your point about the ecosystem and how
33:08
share it one of the things that seems to
33:11
be folks seem to be headed towards is a
33:13
public digital Commons a kind of a
33:16
database let’s say alright if you decide
33:19
as you know the cat seems to be out of
33:21
the bag that we’re gonna allow
33:22
surveillance capitalism I mean there
33:24
there are certain folks like Shoshanna
33:26
would love to see the dial turned back
33:28
I’m not sure if that’s possible let’s
33:30
have a public database in which not just
33:33
one corporation or a handful of
33:35
corporations but multiple sized players
33:37
as well as the public sector as well as
33:40
individual citizens who’s you know after
33:43
all it’s our data being harvested
33:45
everybody gets access and then you can
33:47
figure out how you want to share the pie
33:49
and one interesting example recently is
33:51
the Google sidewalk project in Toronto
33:54
it sounds like you’re up on these issues
33:56
so you’re probably aware but Google had
33:59
taken over sort of twelve acres on the
34:01
Toronto Waterfront and put sensors
34:04
everywhere and the idea was to create a
34:06
smart city in which you’d be able to
34:08
manage traffic patterns and energy usage
34:10
and things like that but until recently
34:12
Google was going to own all that data
34:14
and have access to and finally the
34:16
Toronto government got a clue and said
34:18
well actually you know what let’s put
34:19
this in a public database so other
34:22
smaller or midsize local firms can come
34:25
in and be part of that economic
34:26
ecosystem but also as a public sector we
34:30
can decide well maybe we want to share
34:32
data for energy issues or for health
34:36
issues but maybe we don’t want to share
34:37
it for certain other kinds of things and
34:40
perhaps there would be some way in which
34:42
individuals could take back some of that
34:44
value so California is thinking about a
34:47
digital dividend payment from the big
34:49
tech companies there’s also been talk of
34:51
a digital sovereign wealth fund if you
34:53
think about kind of data as the new oil
34:56
whatever the value is judged to be it
34:59
would be putting the sovereign wealth
35:01
fund in the same way that Alaska or
35:02
Wyoming give back payments or use that
35:05
for the the public sector that could be
35:08
done with data too so I think something
35:10
like that is probably going to be the
35:12
best solution I’ll tell you I have many
35:14
examples in the book of ways in which
35:16
the bigger players have been able to
35:18
squash small and mid-sized firms and
35:20
that
35:21
a major issue and a lot of venture
35:23
capitalists that I speak to are actually
35:26
becoming concerned about that because
35:27
they say that there’s sort of black
35:29
zones of innovation where if Amazon is
35:33
there or Google is there you really
35:34
can’t start a business there’s just been
35:36
too much that’s been been written
35:38
ring-fenced question over here
35:40
yes while your book may be the the best
35:43
one on the subject they’ve certainly
35:44
been other books before talking about
35:46
individuals privacy and their their data
35:49
and everything about them why is it that
35:52
you think people are so unconcerned
35:56
about handing over all of their data to
35:58
these companies when they are perhaps
36:00
very concerned about handing it over to
36:02
the government why why do they feel
36:04
these guys are the good guys and the
36:06
government is necessarily the bad guys
36:08
yeah it’s such an interesting question
36:11
and that really varies from country to
36:13
country I find that that’s sort of an
36:15
interesting cultural dynamic that can
36:17
shift depending on what market you’re in
36:19
I have really been puzzled as to why
36:23
people are so first of all why everybody
36:25
just clicks the box and says no problem
36:27
I think part of that is is the opacity
36:29
of the market I mean if you kind of go
36:31
back to Adam Smith basic economics you
36:35
need three things to make a market
36:36
function property properly that would be
36:38
equal access to data transparency in the
36:41
transaction and a shared moral framework
36:44
and you could argue that none of those
36:46
things are in place so when we’re making
36:48
these transactions I think as that’s
36:51
that very fact becomes better explained
36:56
and people begin to kind of understand
36:58
that narrative like the insurance
36:59
example I just gave that all right
37:02
you’re getting something but you’re
37:03
giving up a lot I’m beginning to see
37:07
pushback already and I suspect in recent
37:10
weeks as some of the big players have
37:11
moved into healthcare you know into into
37:14
the commercial banking business I just
37:17
think that we are going to begin to see
37:18
more people being reluctant to give up
37:23
that much value for what they’re getting
37:25
you’re also interestingly seeing when
37:28
there are other options people will go
37:31
elsewhere so Jimmy Wales who started
37:33
Wikipedia just I think
37:34
the weeks ago came up with a new social
37:36
networking site he’s already got 300,000
37:38
users there and it’s an odd
37:41
they don’t do targeted advertising it’s
37:42
run on the wiki model where you can
37:44
donate if you want I think once the
37:47
antitrust piece is in place and you
37:49
actually have space for new competitors
37:52
to come in and to offer up different
37:54
kinds of services that perhaps are more
37:56
respectful of privacy that you you know
37:58
you could see a shift there but I’m
38:00
curious actually can I pull the audience
38:02
for a minute because I want to ask how
38:04
many people think that in the next five
38:07
years individuals are going to become
38:09
more worried about giving up information
38:12
that’s going to change their behavior
38:13
online so like two-thirds but not yeah
38:19
that’s interesting okay oh go ahead
38:23
sorry we’re sheep we’re cheap oh my god
38:26
that was a different book curious if you
38:30
see the administration’s
38:32
suggestion that it the California can’t
38:35
set its own rules for gas mileage and so
38:41
on and emissions as having a parallel in
38:44
this area you know I hadn’t thought
38:48
about that question before I always
38:50
think about California as really being
38:53
very leading what is eventually going to
38:55
become the national standard and I think
38:58
in data I feel like that is gonna happen
39:01
you know even the Europeans in fact are
39:04
saying that the California model is
39:06
probably the better model for data data
39:08
protection and privacy and sharing of
39:11
value so the Europeans have GDP are you
39:13
know which was kind of the first step in
39:15
the privacy direction but it doesn’t
39:17
take into account that economic
39:18
ecosystem so perversely you have the big
39:21
companies maybe being able to do better
39:23
with the GDP our model and smaller ones
39:26
getting cut out of the loop because they
39:27
don’t have the legal muscle to kind of
39:29
deal with all the rules so I do think
39:31
the California model is going to become
39:32
a de facto standard we also haven’t
39:34
talked about China which is of course
39:36
going its own way and I have it I have a
39:38
chapter in the book where I look at that
39:40
I look at the current trade war tech war
39:43
kind of through the lens of surveillance
39:44
capitalism and
39:46
that’s gonna be very interesting I think
39:48
one of the big probably the biggest mid
39:52
to long-term economic question for me is
39:54
are we going to see a transatlantic
39:56
alliance around digital trade and coming
39:59
up with some standards because China is
40:01
going its own direction it’s going to
40:02
develop its own ecosystem it has its own
40:04
big players the u.s. is in another
40:07
category but where is Europe gonna be is
40:09
it going to be a tri polar world is it
40:11
going to be a bipolar world in terms of
40:13
how all this works that that’s a major
40:15
ik you cannot make an actually foreign
40:16
policy question I think hey thanks for
40:21
coming and thinking um I’m wondering we
40:25
have like a Department of Agriculture we
40:27
have a Department of Energy will there
40:29
be a Department of Technology ever in
40:30
the US and which other countries already
40:33
have that kind of thing going yeah
40:35
England is talking about that actually I
40:37
think kind of an FDA of Technology is
40:40
probably a very good idea you know I see
40:44
going back to the example about my son
40:46
there there
40:46
the research is nascent and causality is
40:49
is difficult to prove but there there’s
40:51
you know a new body of research since
40:54
2011 2012 when smartphones really became
40:57
ubiquitous showing that levels of
40:59
anxiety and depression and younger
41:01
people arising you know they’re there
41:04
they’re issues of self harm sometimes
41:07
when people you know use these
41:08
technologies addictively so I think that
41:11
that’s that’s a big issue to me it’s
41:12
very similar to cigarettes you know
41:14
those were regulated there was a
41:16
different narrative and then behaviors
41:17
changed and I think I think that that’s
41:20
one area to consider policy wise there
41:25
may be time for one or two more
41:26
questions
41:27
okay sorry over here and then over here
41:29
hi
41:30
I’m kind of curious what you think about
41:33
the fact that most of these
41:36
conversations around technology or even
41:38
democracy tends to focus on institutions
41:41
and systems and structures which is
41:44
great because they are so powerful and
41:47
ubiquitous my background is in teaching
41:51
critical thinking and in conflict
41:54
management and I what I worry
41:58
that so little attention is being paid
42:01
to the intelligence and maturity of the
42:05
citizenry I’m from India after 70 years
42:10
of democracy we’ve lost it I think it’s
42:15
simplistic to blame the right-wing
42:18
leaders and the government I believe we
42:22
as a people have not developed the
42:24
maturity to be effective intelligent
42:30
citizens we don’t have the values we are
42:34
still feudal we are still extremely
42:37
hierarchical we don’t have the
42:40
democratic values in India and we didn’t
42:43
cultivated over 70 years I see a
42:46
parallel to being susceptible to the
42:52
seductions of Technology whether it be
42:56
free news or the click baiting or
43:00
anything that the big companies seduce
43:04
us with that even as we need as you said
43:08
they an FDA kind of for technology we
43:13
seem to be observing ourselves of the
43:17
responsibility of being you know of
43:20
waking up and no se pians I hear I hear
43:24
what you’re saying and it’s interesting
43:25
two things come to mind first of all as
43:28
I say I just got back from Europe the
43:29
debate is much more nuanced there and
43:33
and further along and I think that’s in
43:36
part because there was not quite as much
43:39
pendulum shift in the last 40 or 50
43:41
years from the public sector to the
43:43
private sector as there was here I think
43:46
I’m not quite sure if I agree entirely
43:49
with your point about institutions I
43:50
think in some ways part of the problem
43:53
one of the reasons why we have
43:54
concentration levels that are same as
43:57
they were in the 19th century is that
44:00
you know we have a generation of
44:03
business leaders that grew up in the 80s
44:04
thinking that the government was only
44:06
good for cutting taxes and there’s hyper
44:09
individualism that’s that’s
44:12
the entire economic model and in some
44:14
ways I think that you know Facebook is
44:16
maybe the apex of the neoliberal
44:19
economic model if you think about the
44:22
problems of globalization were that cap
44:25
but you know it was supposed to be
44:27
globalization was supposed to be about
44:28
capital goods and people crossing
44:30
borders well it turned out the capital
44:31
could cross a lot faster than either
44:33
goods or people if you take that into
44:36
the world of data that’s even more true
44:38
and so I think that you have a group of
44:41
companies now that have really
44:44
turbocharged a lot of the problems that
44:46
have given us the politics that we have
44:49
now and and a company like Facebook I
44:51
mean I think it every time Zuckerberg is
44:52
on the hill it’s like there’s this
44:54
attitude that they are supranational you
44:56
know and kind of flying 35,000 feet
44:59
above national concerns and I think that
45:02
that’s part of a larger shift and
45:04
probably going to be a big part of the
45:05
2020 debate right are we gonna now have
45:08
a pendulum shift back away from private
45:12
power to some public power some
45:14
different sharing of that which is a
45:16
values question which I think gets at
45:18
some of what you’re talking about
45:20
long-winded answer anyway I think we
45:22
have time for maybe one more question
45:23
yeah – quick question okay one is some
45:27
of the tech companies especially the
45:29
platform companies have you know why
45:32
should we not consider looking at them
45:35
as utility companies yeah I mean we’ve
45:39
had phone companies and as far as I know
45:41
they don’t data mine our conversations
45:43
and maybe mistaken a bit right I mean
45:46
right that’s they could easily right
45:49
right yes it’s different different
45:50
business model yeah yeah so so that was
45:52
one the other thing is you mentioned
45:54
that eventually we need tech policy
45:56
around this and the issue at least my
45:59
issue is that the people who make these
46:01
decisions the the policy makers they
46:05
just most to them don’t have the
46:07
technical background right to properly
46:10
assess the different choices and make
46:12
those decisions I mean I think one of
46:15
them Zuckerberg or someone testified the
46:17
questioning was just awful I mean they
46:20
just ignore our tech support was
46:22
terrible
46:23
yeah exactly so I know anyway whatever
46:27
thoughts you have no that’s a great and
46:29
that’s like maybe a great place to sort
46:31
of wrap up I think the utility model is
46:34
completely viable and it’s interesting
46:36
one of the bits of pushback that you’ll
46:38
sometimes get from folks in the valley
46:40
about that is well if we’re if we’re
46:42
split in this way or if the the capacity
46:46
to innovate is sort of you know
46:47
compressed as the profit margins would
46:49
be compressed in a utility model that’ll
46:52
be bad for innovation not really I mean
46:54
there’s the statistics show for starters
46:56
that companies innovate more when
46:58
they’re smaller they tend to innovate
47:00
more when they’re private and breakups
47:03
in the past you can argue have actually
47:05
created more innovation so a lot of
47:07
academics would say that even the the
47:10
the the antitrust just the threat of
47:13
antitrust action against Microsoft was
47:15
one of the reasons that Google was
47:16
allowed to to blossom as it did you can
47:19
go back to the breakup of the bells and
47:22
say maybe that created space for the
47:25
cellphone industry to to move ahead so I
47:28
think there’s a lot of examples that a
47:31
more decentralized model is actually a
47:34
good thing and I think that that is
47:36
actually going to be a really important
47:37
thing because right now there’s this I
47:40
think very perverse debate in the u.s.
47:42
that is bringing together parts of the
47:45
far right and parts the far left that
47:47
all right we need these companies to
47:48
stay big because they’re the national
47:50
champions and the the becoming war with
47:52
China that is a complete bunk that is
47:56
not shown out first of all I mean these
47:58
companies would love to be in China if
47:59
they could get into China you know I
48:02
think decentralized is the advantage in
48:06
all respects in the US economically so
48:09
yeah I’m have no problems with a utility
48:12
model anyway I think my time is up but
48:15
I’d be happy to sign books and answer
48:17
any other questions here at the table
48:18
and thanks so much for your attention
48:19
[Applause]
48:34
you

The Single Most Important Internal Email in the History of Amazon

I never planned to do a series of articles, but this write-up almost came as a natural follow-up to the post I wrote last week about Context over Control and the future of remote work. Last week I explored the ground rules of the future of work. Specifically, I talked about how and why the fundamental prerequisites of work have changed. Here I’m taking a step further and describing some of the literature behind today’s organizations’ communication systems. What they’re made of, why they can be so impactful in today’s organizations, and how they’re related to the concept of remote working.

On to the write-up.

A good internal design communication system is one of the most important leverages an organization can have to make an impact.

In 2011, a post came out under the name of Stevey’s Google Platforms Rant. I have revisited the article over and over again over the years (if you haven’t read it yet it really is fantastic) and to this day I think this is the single best article I’ve ever read about organization architecture and the management of IT.

Yegge’s rant is about what he’s noticed after spending  6 years  at Amazon and 6 years  at Google.

In short: Amazon figured out how to serve customers. It started out serving Amazon.com but critically, as Yegge noted, the relationship was very much at arm’s length: AWS has always treated Amazon.com no differently than any outside user, which prepared it to offer the right sort of services for any scalable web service. On the other side, Google, with its Cloud provider, Google Platform, does not serve most Google Products. In other words, while Amazon did manage to have discipline towards internal dogfooding, Google didn’t. And that made a world of difference.

In recent years, I started to realize that what I noted above was actually the gist of that post, but it was not the most interesting thing about it.

In the article, Yegge (again, read it if you haven’t yet) describes an internal Email Jeff Bezos sent to the 150-odd Amazon employees. Quoting Yegge’s post, the email was along these lines:

1) All teams will henceforth expose their data and functionality through service interfaces.
2) Teams must communicate with each other through these interfaces.
3) There will be no other form of interprocess communication allowed: no direct linking, no direct reads of another team’s data store, no shared-memory model, no back-doors whatsoever. The only communication allowed is via service interface calls over the network.
4) It doesn’t matter what technology they use. HTTP, Corba, Pubsub, custom protocols — doesn’t matter. Bezos doesn’t care.
5) All service interfaces, without exception, must be designed from the ground up to be externalizable. That is to say, the team must plan and design to be able to expose the interface to developers in the outside world. No exceptions.
6) Anyone who doesn’t do this will be fired.
7) Thank you; have a nice day!

Now I think that this internal email is what has actually  stuck with me the most. Bezos realized that he had to change the internal communication infrastructure before he could actually change the byproduct of the organization. 

He understood that  a radical organizational change was required to arrange the internal dynamics in a way that would allow the creation of something like AWS.

Specifically, what he got right was an internal communication system designed to (1) embrace accessibility as its most important commandment in order to (2) enable a strong platform mindset and (3) incentivize extreme dogfooding.

While the third point makes all the  difference in the world, what Amazon really did get right that Google didn’t was an internal communication system designed to make all the rest possible.

Having teams acting like individual APIs and interacting with one another through interfaces over the network was the catalyst of a series of consequent actions that eventually made possible the realization of AWS in a way that couldn’t have been possible otherwise.

To this day I think the Amazon example might be one of the clearest case manifestations of Conway’s Law.

Organizations which design systems are restricted to producing designs which are copies of their own communication structures.

Frameworks for organization structures

Back to the initial premise of this article, it’s amazing how powerful and impactful internal communication infrastructures can be to an organization: from  day-to-day operations, to its culture, to the actual end-to-end user’s product.

There is one more additional point about Amazon’s case that is worth keeping in mind: Amazon didn’t perform any reorganization after Bezos’s mandate. The internal organization structure was already there: same people, same teams, same chain management. What changed was the airflow: the policies, the processes, and the communications interfaces that regulated the internal dynamics of day-to-day operations. In other words, Amazon’s highly divisional organization was already suitable for such a big change.

Communication infrastructures are highly dependent on the organizational structures that are already in place. Because organizational structures depend on the people who are part of the company, these changes tend to happen over long time-frames (if they happen at all).

Lately, I’ve been thinking about what possible types of organizational structure there are, and what they empower.

Functional organizations

Functional organizations are organized around areas of expertise. Apple might be one of the  most renowned examples of a functional organization. In the case of Apple, that means that design is one group (previously under Ive), product marketing is another (under Schiller), and operations a third (under Williams, who is also Chief Operating Officer), etc.

Functional Organization structure came to light as the embodiment of Fayol’s idea of unity of direction. The consequence of this principle is encapsulated in the name itself; an optimal shared level of consistency, coordination, and alignment across the entire organization. This, as in the case of Apple, often translates to vastly superior customer experiences.

On the other end, functional organizations tend to come with a lot of internal bureaucracy. Deep alignment and consistency come at the cost of a slower and more rigid  organization. Because of the low level of team autonomy, in these types of organizations, innovation tends to have a top-down (rather than bottom-up) trajectory.

Divisional organizations

At the perennial opposite of the spectrum, we find divisional organizations. Divisional organizations sacrifice Fayol’s principle of unity of direction and are organized around products rather than expertise. They started to be part of the playbook after DuPont’s famous reorganization in 1900.

Amazon is probably the best-known case of divisional organization. The two-pizza teams (introduced in its early years, and still used today), their most common internal division, are the ultimate embodiment of a divisional organization. In these organizations, product teams act as independent entities within the wider organization. They have their own marketing, sales, engineering and finance functions so that each has autonomy and accountability. Each product has its own profit-and-loss statement (P&L), whereas  Apple famously had  a single P&L.

Two-pizza teams excel at agility, structure, clarity, speed of (mainly bottom-up) innovation, meaning, and impact. On the other hand, this profound divisional organization comes at the cost of inconsistency, a high-maintenance communication structure and an inferior  product experience.  As Yegge rightly noticed in his rant:

“Amazon’s recruiting process is fundamentally flawed by having teams hire for themselves, so their hiring bar is incredibly inconsistent across teams, despite various efforts they’ve made to level it out.”

Hybrid strategy

Then there are hybrid organization structures. Fundamentally, these are either functional organizations that adopted some divisional principles or vice-versa. One example that immediately comes to mind is Netflix.

As CEO Reed Hastings wrote, in the Highly aligned, loosely coupled principle:

“As companies grow, they often become highly centralized and inflexible. Symptoms include:
1) Senior management is involved in many small decisions.
2) There are numerous cross-departmental buy-in meetings to socialize tactics.
3) Pleasing other internal groups takes precedence over pleasing customers
4) The organization is highly coordinated and less prone to error, but slow and frustrating.

We avoid this by being highly aligned and loosely coupled. We spend lots of time debating strategy together, and then trust each other to execute on tactics without prior approvals. Often, two groups working on the same goals won’t know of or have approval over their peers’ activities. If later the activities don’t seem right, we have a candid discussion. We may find that the strategy was too vague or the tactics were not aligned with the agreed strategy. And we discuss generally how we can do better in the future.

The success of a “Highly Aligned, Loosely Coupled” work environment is dependent upon the collaborative efforts of high-performance individuals and effective context. Ultimately, the end goal is to grow the business for bigger impact while increasing flexibility and agility. We seek to be big, fast and nimble.”

Frameworks for internal communications

Internal communication frameworks are like air traffic control, coordinating  internal policies, procedures, and interfaces. There are many ways communication frameworks can be described, but generally, they can be part of a single spectrum: synchronous communication vs asynchronous communication.

Synchronous vs Asynchronous communication

In traditional, co-located teams, most of the communications take place here and now, or synchronously. Everybody on the team is focused on the same things at the same time. Meetings, brainstorming sessions, 1:1, sync-ups, discussing problems over lunch, catching up in  coffee-breaks, and many other ways to interact with each other are all synchronous forms of communication.

These dynamics change when physical proximity is not part of the equation anymore. Remote teams tend to have little synchronous time and most of the work is coordinated online and asynchronously. Asynchronous frameworks allow us to exchange information at a convenient time for each participant in the process, independently of each other. Data is sent and received with a delay.

Interestingly, communication frameworks can work quite independently from the organization’s location. I haven’t found a single chart that captures the essence of how  current internal comms frameworks are related to companies’ locations:

Co-located synchronous

This is by far the most traditional and common approach of the last century. Apple  is one of the major embodiments of a co-located synchronous organization. Most of the companies that follow a similar configuration tend to be highly functionally organized.

Back to my previous point: these organizations are highly coordinated and synchronized through centralization, but they tend to be rigid and slow. Moreover, this slowness increases exponentially with headcount, making reorganization even more difficult.

There is one more additional point about co-located synchronous organization that is worth keeping in mind: it’s hard for them to implement principles of divisional organization and asynchronous communication, or to embrace a remote strategy.

Co-located asynchronous

These are co-located companies that operate from the same location with asynchronous principles, Amazon  being a prime example.

To return to Yegge’s rent, the entire communication system in Amazon privileges autonomy and independenceSOA-mindset is deeply embedded in the culture. Teams are used to interacting like APIs in an asynchronous fashion.

No doubt meetings are quite limited at Amazon as they represent an interference in  the usual communication between independent units or teams, as opposed to Apple, where meetings are catalysts of ideas and discussions.

Distributed asynchronous

At the very end of the spectrum, an organization can also be distributed. In distributed organizations, there’s no physical presence (no HQs or other forms of operative locations). Teams’ autonomy is highly decentralized and localized at the edges. The asynchronous approach is the de facto setting for these types of configurations. It’s common for distributed teams to rely on divisional organizations and turn physical constraints into a competitive advantage.

Distributed synchronous

Co-located organizations do not necessarily operate according to synchronous principles, similarily distributed organizations do not necessarily have to operate in an asynchronous fashion. InVision is one of the biggest organizations out there that embraced  this hybrid form of collaboration early on. As a distributed organization they don’t have any HQs but they tend to operate from the same time zone (9 AM – 9 PM EST).

Interestingly, they’ve decided to settle on a particular compromise. Fundamentally, they are still a synchronous company but with a 50% time span (and some policies surrounding that) , and a minimum of 4 hours overlap. They still need to be async on any given level, but that minimum sync time gives them room to be less rigid around documentations and be more responsive in case of emergency.

Remote asynchronous

Asynchronous frameworks for internal communication give organizations that have a physical presence (main HQ) the opportunity to expand and embrace remote working more easily. Basecamp is headquartered in Chicago, even though a huge part of the team is spread out across 32 cities around the world.

Asynchronous = Optionality

As I hope is now obvious, there’s no single way to organize remote work and there’s no evidence to form any strong conclusions about the efficacy of one configuration versus another.

One thing that is worth considering though is that an asynchronous setting gives more optionality. It allows you to reorganize the company in a divisional organization more easily and embrace remote working even if you’re co-located. Everything that works in an async fashion can also work sync but not vice-versa.

On the other hand, it’s way harder for co-located sync organizations to expand into adjacent areas and experiment with other configurations.

As more and more teams are embracing some form of distributed model because it  widens the talent pool from which they  can recruit,  transitions to asynchronous communication will become more evident.

The caveat here is that asynchronous communication can be very daunting at the beginning because it requires more processes, documentation, and infrastructure than synchronous communication. While synchronous communication tends to scale linearly, asynchronous communication follows a logarithmic trajectory and its efficiency surplus is only observable  in the long run.

Conclusions

In my latest essay, I argued that part of the neoclassical economic literature on marginal productivity is fundamentally flawed. And because it’s incredibly hard to measure software productivity, it’s also quite impossible to hash out what can be the most productive remote configurations. That being said, here are some final thoughts based on these considerations:

  • An organization’s communication system can be one of the most important leverages you can have to make an impact on productivity. Be very intentional about it.
  • There are different distribution patterns for teams, not just a simple co-located versus distributed dichotomy. The advantages, disadvantages and effective techniques for multi-site teams will often differ.
  • Most groups of people will be more effective when working co-located due to the richer communications they have. But don’t  forget that some people seem to be more effective  in a remote-first model.
  • Never forget that organizations can adopt asynchronous communication or synchronous communication regardless of their physical presence.
  • Asynchronous communication is the form of internal communications that gives most optionality, and it’s preferable if you’re going to opt for a divisional organization. But it comes at the cost of high maintenance, which can be daunting, especially in the early days.
  • When using a remote working pattern, pay attention to how the communication patterns form. Invest in improving communication, including travel and technology.