Notes On Using
Data Science & Machine Learning
To Fight For Something That Matters
I am the Director of Machine Learning at the Wikimedia Foundation. I have spent over a decade applying statistical learning, artificial intelligence, and software engineering to political, social, and humanitarian efforts.
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39:04up the down escalator no III think I39:07think there are real possibilities of39:09creating communities of distributed39:14trust right which is which is at the39:17core of the to in my mind the whole39:19effort right have now how do you create39:22a community of distributed trust and and39:27and what I’d like to see is that that39:29distributed trust is applied to areas39:32that are not so fiercely guarded by the39:38you know the the powerful you know39:42states governments and and and39:45businesses right because again it when I39:48think about how to play the long game39:49here I think that is possible to carve39:53out39:55areas of got resistance but what I39:58really mean is areas of sovereignty self40:00sovereignty over issues again they’re40:02not so fiercely guarded as money yes40:04about the state and and so again this is40:07an issue of tactics or other than40:09strategy right and and and so that I40:11would pursue a different tactical40:14approach to the I think the goal we all40:17or most of your listeners share with you40:20and I for sure it it does seem to me and40:27I want to bring this back to the run of40:29iris now right which is that everything40:34you’re describing whether it’s whether40:36it’s your tactical approach my tactical40:39approach I40:42I think it’s tempting to think oh the40:44instability that the virus brings is40:47going to be an advantage in fighting40:51this long game right I actually think40:54it’s it’s it’s it’s a very much40:57disadvantageous to both of us right the41:00both of our tactical approaches here and41:02and I don’t think you have to look much41:04farther than what happened in Hungary41:07right over the last two days where the41:09the Hungarian Parliament and this has41:12been building for a while right and41:14event but Hungarian Parliament in41:17response to the throne of iris emergency41:21and it is an emergency gave really41:26dictatorial powers to to Viktor Orban41:29the the Prime Minister where he now has41:32the ability ability to rule by decree41:34right don’t have to pass the law doesn’t41:37have to go to Parliament whatever the41:40executive says is law there’s no time41:43limit on this now in hunger there’s a41:47new law that if you spread false41:49information I think and use as the41:53executive describes this what at stake41:54or not you’re in prison for five years41:56and if you try to leave the areas of41:59confinement quarantine that they’ve set42:01up that’s in the this this is what42:04happens I think in weaker states42:07go back to some you know idyllic state42:09of nature where you know you can set up42:13your you know Kingdom of Wakanda you42:15know alright what happens is they’re42:17taken over by thugs they’re taking them42:19by warlords and by thugs and and you42:23know in Hungary is uh it’s a member of42:26the yeah I mean I mean it’s a core42:28member of Europe so when I when I think42:31about what’s going to happen in the next42:33year and a half in Indonesia what’s42:36gonna happen the next year and a half in42:38Egypt it’s going to happen in today42:40what’s happening right now in Iran for42:42God’s sakes I I don’t think it works to42:46our advantage42:47III think that the impetus in every42:50country and particularly in the weaker42:52States is going to be for reclaiming of42:55the physical of the violence of the gun42:59and so this is why I think it’s more43:03important than ever that we identify43:06each other in our communities of empathy43:09in our communities of our pack right so43:14that we can fight this long game this43:18long war and so we can support each43:19other so anyway that’s not I’m just43:23trying to bring it back to what’s43:25happening today and and how we should43:28think about this unfortunately I don’t43:29think it’s a great opportunity but I43:32think it’s something that we all need to43:35come together even more around so that43:38we can can stray stay strong or the the43:42dark times that are ahead and I do think43:44they’re dark times well never one to43:48mince words and and and I certainly43:50appreciate the perspective on I’m43:52slightly more optimistic for the reasons43:56that I outlined you know in the physical43:57realm but in the digital realm right is44:00the internet still a bastion of freedom44:02and can you ultimately get people to act44:05freely outside of you know some of the44:08more restrictive social media platforms44:11for instance but just any type of44:12peer-to-peer communication system44:14peer-to-peer digital realms would seem44:17if you’re more conducive for the silent44:20distance the quiet resistance yes and44:22that individual thesis but how exactly44:26we get there not not debating that it44:29could get ugly I want to change gears44:32for the the last a little bit that we44:34have and just talk about your44:37understanding of the investment you know44:40as I guess for this generation of44:45investors because one of your more44:47popular posts this is water and yeah44:51it’s still water it kind of talked about44:53this shifting mindset where deflation44:56expectations that were driven by44:58technology are now inflation44:59expectations there’s and this isn’t45:02necessarily new but I like the way they45:04laid it out the the globalism that had45:09permeated the the macroeconomy for so45:12long is now becoming more nationalistic45:13now in some respects that’s not a bad45:16thing because now you might have45:18countries that are more resilient in the45:21face of issues like pandemics when when45:24today you know we’re seeing just how45:26levered we are via global supply chains45:31you talked about the kind of shifting45:33from you know capital markets into you45:36know true market mechanisms just45:38political utilities and um and then just45:41overall how financialization is kind of45:43exacerbated you know all of those trends45:46what what’s what’s the what’s the next45:49step in in financial markets right yeah45:51if if you run out of the capacity to45:53print if you run out of the capacity to45:55spend let’s not even talk about the u.s.45:58let’s talk about some some country like46:00like Hungary they don’t necessarily46:02control their own currency it’s a small46:05but usually functioning democracy what46:09does a market system look like in a46:11situation like hungry and then how do46:13you ever get back to normalcy or how do46:18you set the reset button so that the46:24short answer is that for in a I’ll go46:30back to46:32I’m gonna go back 2,500 years yeah this46:37is the academic in me right I can’t I46:38can’t I can’t give you a straight answer46:39right what you’re asking has all46:43happened before like it’s all happened46:46before right so Peloponnesian War you’ve46:52got a thens and Sparta the big countries46:56you know fighting each other and then46:59the question is well what happens to the47:00little countries what happens to ya47:05you know magar you know all these these47:07these little city-states and the the47:11Athenians they’re trying to get their47:13their allies together in one of the the47:18little allies is saying well you know47:20but you know you’re asking us to47:22sacrifice everything is all for you I47:24mean this this sounds this justice out a47:28great deal and the Athenian ambassador47:31says you know it was ever thus the47:33strong do as they will the weak do as47:36they must strong do as they will the47:39weak do this they must47:40and nothing has changed in 2500 freaking47:44years when it comes to the ability of47:49countries to chart their own course to47:55deal with the exigencies of power hungry48:02will do as they must even weaker48:07countries than hungry will definitely do48:08is they must and the strong do as they48:10will so what they will when it comes to48:15Europe when it comes to the United48:16States when it comes to Japan which48:17comes to to China is that there are no48:20limits on you know printer Gober right48:24there are no limits on you know we we48:29haven’t even really touched yet modern48:33monetary theory in the notion that well48:35there’s not even a relationship between48:37spending and taxing right48:38you can run deficits as much as you want48:40go on go for it we’re just getting48:43started man48:45getting started hey we’re not at the end48:48game of this where yeah it’s like it’s48:52like this is halftime hey this this48:55isn’t the last few minutes of the fourth48:56quarter48:57with how governments are going to48:59transform capital markets and the fourth49:01key utilities with how they’re going to49:03you know transform the meaning of money49:06into what supports political power yeah49:09this is just half time so I I think we49:14really do have to take that long-term49:16perspective that the printer can go burr49:20for a lot longer and it doesn’t matter49:25who gets elected you know you know it’s49:27it’s it it’s all the same that the last49:3010 years have been the greatest transfer49:32of wealth – I call it the managerial49:35class then I really think anything in49:40history it has come through stock49:42buybacks through stock sales through49:44stock based compensation it’s all49:46happened in the last 10 years and it’s a49:48transfer of hundreds of billions of49:50dollars of wealth to managers not49:55entrepreneurs not founders not Shinya to49:59managers managers and when that much50:04wealth is transferred to that number of50:06people in such a short period of time50:08it doesn’t reverse itself yeah you know50:11you know people don’t the the cheese may50:14move but people still want their cheese50:16yeah and and and I just I just think50:20it’s so important to remember that we50:24really are playing that long game to50:26remember that the strong do is they will50:28and the weak – as they must and to have50:32in mind a set that that we’re just half50:34time right now and that we need to play50:39the game accordingly because what you50:42don’t want to do is you don’t want to50:46yeah you don’t want to storm an50:48entrenched machine-gun nest you know50:50with you know huzzah now is our time you50:53know then you you really do I think want50:57to play the long game50:58I think there50:59a real power of conviction and belief51:03that allows us to play a long game51:06mm-hmm and to keep it all together51:11of course people like you doing your51:13podcast it requires people like me doing51:15our writing and most of it all it it51:18requires a critical mass of people who51:22whose greatest regret would be to give51:26up and to be co-opted by the powers that51:30be rather than play the long game and51:32fight the long fight I can’t think of a51:36better way to wrap up this conversation51:39than calling for conviction and long51:42term ISM and a market remedies panicked51:45and and you know short termism generally51:48drills the day then where can people51:51find you on twitter I’m easy it’s it’s51:54it’s all epsilon Theory all the time so51:56at epsilon theory and epsilon Theory51:59comm it’s for you to read and love to52:03love to have you on board it’s a it’s an52:06excellent read always I’ve been52:08following you for years now and and52:10definitely appreciate your commentary52:11and watching it at all even as we get52:14into a slightly darker period and you52:16can tell for those that are tuning in if52:19you can hear the background noise that52:20naptime just ended so we we just wrapped52:23up with the most perfect time because I52:25just I just heard my kids wake up and52:27surprise that they haven’t run in here52:28already thank you for having me Ryan’s52:32really a pleasure anytime Thank You Ben52:35and stay safe52:36YouTube take care
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