Corporations such as Microstrategy and Tesla are making more money from buying Bitcoin than producing goods and services.
00:01populism hits the financial markets00:03is it a fluke or does it point to00:05something deeper this is bloomberg wall00:07street week i’m david weston00:10this week special contributor larry00:12summers of harvard00:14yes there is retail fraud00:17not everything that’s done by short00:19sellers00:20is especially attractive bank of america00:23ceo00:24brian moynihan it’s good people00:26investing i think people have to be00:28careful and we all know that00:29charming mossovar rachmani of goldman00:32sachs00:33it is clear that this is not necessarily00:35justified from a valuation perspective00:38jared bernstein of the council of00:40economic advisors00:42related company’s ceo jeff blau00:45and peter atwater of financial insights01:01there was a lot going on this week the01:03federal reserve had its first meeting of01:05the new year01:06the economy is a long way from our01:08employment and inflation goals01:10and it is likely to take some time for01:12substantial further progress to be01:14achieved01:14president biden issued a new series of01:16executive orders janet yellen was sworn01:19in as the first woman to be the u.s01:21treasury secretary and oh yes the titans01:24of tech01:24announced their earnings from last01:26quarter but despite01:28all of the major news global wall street01:30was consumed with the story of what had01:33been01:33a small largely overlooked company that01:36sold01:36video games at the local mall a company01:39that the big hedge funds were happy to01:41bet against01:42until a flash mob on the social media01:44site reddit01:45decided to take on the shorts and the01:48rest01:48is history this has captured the01:50attention of the america01:52and every trader and nitrater alike the01:55word nuttiness comes to mind to be01:57honest01:57the gamestop story is good fun to watch02:00a sort of financial porn02:02but we need to ask ourselves whether02:04there’s more to it than just a battle of02:06the netizens versus the shorts02:08whether a combination of the liquidity02:10in the market driven by the fed02:12put together with the phenomenon of02:13social media with just a pinch of02:15lingering resentment of a financial02:17system02:18that seems to be rigged is part of a02:20larger truth02:21something that could point to an ugly02:23reckoning around the corner02:24with historically loose monetary and02:27fiscal policy02:28it’s really been the printing of money02:30by the central bank and the distribution02:32by the the government that’s financed a02:35lot of the activity02:38here to help us make some sense out of02:40these markets and how they’re reacting02:41to the news of the week02:43is charming most of our rachmani she is02:45chief investment officer at goldman02:46sachs wealth management sure i mean02:48always a pleasure to have you on we had02:50a fair amount of up and down in the02:51equity markets this week on wednesday02:53they were down the most since october02:55and you can tell us why that is maybe02:57because of what we heard of jay powell02:58the fetch here02:59and then on thursday they came roaring03:00back again what do we make out of all03:02this is it telling us anything more03:04fundamental about the economy03:06first of all thank you for having me i03:07always enjoy being on your show as well03:10in terms of the specifics of this type03:12of volatility03:13if you think about the equity markets on03:15average the volatility is around 1503:18now since the pandemic we’ve been above03:2020 for a long period of time03:22so seeing this type of market moves is03:24inevitable03:26in fact if we go back and look at the03:28post global financial crisis period03:30we have had episodes of the market down03:32five percent03:33uh at least 95 percent of the time03:36episodes of down 10 75 of the time03:40so one has to look at this at this kind03:43of market move and recognize03:45that this is just a lot of noise the03:48main03:48signal and the main message that we’re03:50giving our clients03:51is to stay invested we have good03:53economic growth03:55we have a very very favorable03:58earnings outlook and so when you combine04:01all of those04:01our recommendation continues to be stay04:04invested04:05and look beyond this kind of volatility04:07at this time04:08as you know we heard from chair powell04:10this week and he was asked about the04:12question of04:13bubble or froth or sort of extended04:16valuations because of the04:17very accommodative monetary policy he04:19sort of dismissed that i think it’s fair04:21to say he didn’t think that’s04:22the real problem here do you have any04:24concern about that at all because04:25there’s a lot of talk around right now04:27about04:27things being overextended when we look04:30at equity valuations04:31uh there are a couple of different04:32perspectives we bring to bear04:34first and foremost we look at a series04:36of metrics04:37but we look at them not just compared to04:39long-term averages04:41but one actually has to look at them in04:43the context of a period of low and04:45stable inflation04:46so when you’re looking at the04:48environment we have been in since04:50april of 1996 which is low and stable04:54inflation04:55we actually are not as expensive as04:57people think we are04:58in fact based on looking at the broad05:00range of uh05:02these metrics our view is that given a05:05view on where we’re going to be05:06on earnings this year we’re probably05:09about 14 to 20 percent overvalued05:12that is not a bubble in addition we05:14actually look at equity risk premium05:16what are equities yielding relative to05:19what bonds are we05:20yielding that is also above average and05:23finally we actually have something we05:24called05:25um is it’s an indicator that looks at05:27explosive price behavior05:29and we have to get that to around 90 to05:32100 to think we’re in a bubble05:34that currently stands at 26 it’s at a05:37hundred percent for bitcoin05:38but for something like equities it is05:41not showing bubble levels at all05:43furthermore if we compare it to where we05:45were in the dot-com bubble levels05:47we’re substantially below that so05:49definitely not a bubble trouble yet from05:51our perspective05:52charming a moment ago you explo referred05:54to explosive growth05:55we cannot talk about explosive growth05:57this week without talking about gamestop05:59i mean you just have to talk about it06:01give us your take on game stock what is06:02going on there is that a fluke is it a06:04symptom of something else06:06what’s driving that when we look at06:08these types of uh06:09headlines and this kind of price action06:12um it is clear that you this is not06:14necessarily justified from a valuation06:16perspective06:17so what is it driving driving in an era06:20of social media06:21easy access to trading very low cost06:24in terms of transaction costs for people06:27you could have a lot of momentum and a06:28lot of investors can pile into an06:30investment theme06:31and that does mean that you’re going to06:33end up with prices that06:35don’t probably reflect fair value and06:37this could be seen06:38in many areas it’s not just individually06:40in a particular stock06:42you could see it in other sectors and06:44asset classes and again cryptocurrencies06:46are a good example where you see the06:47same06:48type of price action where it’s not06:50clear these are justified by06:52any value argument and any fundamental06:54arguments06:55yeah i don’t hear anybody arguing that06:56it was justified by value arguments06:58does it pose anything of a risk for the07:00rest of the market in terms of the price07:02action it’ll get some attention it’ll07:04get a lot of headlines07:05but at the end of the day again one has07:07to separate all this noise07:09from the main signal it’s not as if we07:11would recommend our clients have a07:13significant07:14allocation to any of these sectors or07:17specific talks07:19core assets really need to be uh in07:22something like the s p 500 in something07:25like ifa07:26very small allocation for example to07:28emerging markets but it needs to be more07:30diversified07:31one of the pillars of our investment07:32philosophy is the real way07:35to create good long-term wealth is07:36through having some diversification in07:38the portfolio07:39okay charming as i say it’s always a07:41great pleasure to have you with us that07:42charming most of our rachmani07:44of goldman sachs coming up07:47what caused the gamestop spectacle and07:50what should be done about it07:52from peter atwater of financial insights07:55what we’re seeing today is very aimed at07:58going after companies that everybody was08:01convinced was08:02you know we’re on their way out in the08:03stretcher08:05this is wall street week on bloomberg08:13[Music]08:22a video game store is at the heart of a08:24titanic struggle between08:25short sellers and retail investors until08:28recently gamestop08:29was a company whose time seemed to have08:31passed with serious gamers turning to08:33the internet not the mall to get their08:35games08:36but then social media got involved08:38starting a meteoric rise08:40in gamestop stock after reddit’s wall08:43street bets forum started pumping the08:44stock to its users08:46the army of social media empowered day08:49traders catapulted the former small caps08:51market value08:52beyond those of even members of the s p08:55500.08:56it just reflects the liquidity that08:57exists and the new players in the08:59markets you know historically it’s09:01indicative of a bubble type environment09:03but you know to go for a long time09:05the amateur day traders were targeting09:07short positions held by09:08gabe plotkin’s melvin capital and andrew09:11left09:12citroen research hedge fund titans ken09:14griffin and steve cohen09:16injected a total of two and09:17three-quarters billion dollars into09:19melvin capital09:20amid the short squeeze distress what’s09:22happening is that the retail right now09:24is stronger but09:25the short bets come back and fill in so09:27it’s it’s just a battle that’s going to09:29continue you’re going to see09:30game stuff go way higher within a matter09:32of days the reddit army had pushed the09:35rally so high09:36that melvin capital and citroen threw in09:38the towel on their short positions09:40citron research will no longer be09:42publishing what can be considered09:45as short selling reports the reddit army09:47of day traders also boosted other09:49has-beens including blackberry09:51retailer express and amc which is09:53fighting to save09:54off bankruptcy hedge funds are now on09:56the hunt for other companies that could09:58end up on the reddit mob’s radar10:01i think you’re going to see a number of10:02hedge funds declare bankruptcy in the10:03next several days10:04online brokerages reported service10:07disruptions caused by the retail trading10:09frenzy10:09and a number of them including robin10:11hood took the rare step of limiting some10:13transactions on shares of gamestop10:15amc and others you’re witnessing the10:18french revolution of finance where the10:21proletariat is rising up to change10:24the order structure and finance there’s10:27been a surge in overall retail10:29trading activity as people stuck at home10:32tried their hands at trading10:34according to bloomberg intelligence10:35individual investors accounted for10:37almost 2010:38of the trading volume in 2020. the fact10:40that retail investors are going to be10:42able to communicate with one another10:44that they can actually consolidate their10:46buying power is something i don’t think10:48the regulars would have anticipated10:49even three years ago10:51[Music]10:55so what caused the perfect storm that10:57some call gamestop10:59we asked peter atwater president of11:01financial insights11:02and he said it was something that had11:04been in the works for some time11:08what we’ve seen over the past couple of11:09years have been these flash mobs with11:11money as i call them where11:13investors particularly using social11:15media get together and11:18you know aim at a single company you saw11:20this with tilray beyond11:22me just one after the other and what11:24we’ve started to see11:25is they move from moving shares to11:28buying options to now buying options and11:30things that are11:31you know most shorted and to me this11:33just reflects11:34on the the confidence of the crowd11:37they’ve gotten much more strident11:39much more aggressive and and honestly11:41they’ve succeeded at it so11:43so behaviorally this looks very very11:45predictable11:46and it’s coming to a head let’s talk11:48about regulation11:49because there’s various discussion about11:51whether the sec or someone else should11:53be getting involved does this11:54potentially11:55lie afoul of what’s going on with the11:57sec in terms of11:58existing regulation i i don’t know if it12:01runs a foul or not12:02but as a researcher i have found that12:05regulators12:07when they act react to sentiment and so12:11i expect that if sentiment becomes too12:13extreme12:14people become concerned about systemic12:16safety12:17then you’ll see the regulators moving in12:19force and and12:20you know that that’s what they do they12:22will close the barn12:24doors at the moment that the the animals12:26have already left they’ll they’re going12:28to pour12:28water on a fire that was already12:30extinguishing12:32those who defend short selling say this12:34is a way of really communicating12:35information in early stage12:37at least questions about a company that12:39really facilitates an effective market12:41functioning12:42uh does this get in the way of that or12:44is this just that same12:45market signaling on steroids as it were12:48yeah12:48i’m in the camp that this is signaling12:50on steroids i mean what you12:52have right now is absolute speculation12:56using enormous leverage12:57you know targeted where they believe it13:00will be most effective13:01and i step back and say that only13:04happens david13:05near the climax of a confidence cycle13:08where people are so certain that they’re13:10going to win13:11that they bet the ranch in things that13:13have enormous leverage this is13:15this is flipping houses um you know from13:18200513:19on steroids in 2021 well that’s one of13:22my questions actually because you are a13:23researcher13:24looking back through history whether13:25it’s the housing bubble or going back13:27further than that to tulips and south13:29sea and things like that13:30are there analogies that would inform us13:32now that might inform where we’re going13:34or is this a one-off13:35no i think that the the analogies hold13:37these are these tend to be climatic13:39events13:40where you know the crowd is enormous13:43it’s moving13:44in a manic very frequent way i mean it’s13:47to me it’s less13:48of a bubble than it’s a series of one13:50craze right after the other13:52and those those high energy moments tend13:55to happen13:56you know just at the at the peak in the13:58confidence cycle14:00peter we can’t get in the minds of the14:02people who are participating14:03particularly on reddit here14:05but from your research from your14:06reporting is this about finance as a14:09base or is it actually about14:11politics or about social norms and a14:14real resistance to sort of14:16some of the institutions we’ve had14:18including going all the way back to 200814:19and14:20sort of a resentment about the fact that14:22perhaps those in the financial14:24system were not held properly to account14:27i i i sort of look at the evolution of14:30of this14:30this paradigm starting with sort of14:33gamesmanship people going online and14:35using14:36uh social media to to make money almost14:39as a game14:40then it became very greed filled and now14:43what you’re seeing14:44is i i think a consequence of that14:47k-shaped recovery14:49that i’ve been talking about for the14:50past year where14:52there is a there’s a jealousy there’s an14:55anger there’s a frustration at the14:56system and i think14:58that the size of the crowd now15:00encompasses that15:02aspect i mean don’t get me wrong there’s15:03there’s always a stridents to peaks in15:05the market15:06but this is this has got anger behind it15:10and the behavior of the mob in many ways15:13reminds me of what we saw two weeks ago15:15at the capitol it’s a it’s a mishmash of15:18a whole lot of people15:20again we’re reaching for analogies15:21because it’s so unprecedented but i also15:23wonder if it has15:24something to do in parallel with some of15:26the cryptocurrency speculation the15:28extreme volatility there and is it15:31perhaps a generational issue15:33you know what started though was was15:35very futuristic15:36you know bitcoin tesla you know evs it15:39was very15:40oriented towards possibility what we’re15:43seeing today is very15:45aimed at going after companies that15:48everybody15:49was convinced was you know were on their15:51way out in a stretcher15:52you know the retailers these are these15:54are companies that nobody15:56was expecting to prosper and the short15:59interest just16:00really has enabled the crowd to catalyze16:02around them16:05that was peter atwater president of16:06financial insights16:09coming up bank of america ceo brian16:11moynihan on the rise of retail investors16:14and16:14what it means for the markets it’s16:16already been pretty democratized it’s16:18good people are investing i think people16:19have to be careful and we all know that16:23this is wall street week on bloomberg16:36this is wall street week i’m david16:38weston brian moynihan during his time as16:40chairman and ceo of bank of america has16:42emphasized the strategy of responsible16:44growth16:45what went on with gamestop this week16:48seems like just the opposite of that as16:49some16:50would say was the earlier parabolic16:52increase in bitcoin16:53but brian says that it’s not a problem16:55with the democratization of finance16:58the forces are larger than that17:01it’s already been pretty democratized we17:03we everybody talked about free trading17:06i think somewhere in like 2007 or17:09something like that i17:10i was riding around manhattan on a17:12double decker bus was free trading on17:14the side17:14side of it from bank of america this is17:16not a new concept and so17:18you know we we’ve seen 30 percent growth17:21in in our17:22uh balances for our in our maryland17:24which is our more affluent segment we’ve17:26seen a17:27net growth of 10 i think in in17:30what you call sort of digital brokerage17:32accounts and stuff and so it’s it’s good17:34people are investing i think people have17:35to be careful and we all know that but i17:37think if you look at it overall17:38if you look longer term what what are17:40the themes in financial services17:42more and more digital we saw we’re now17:44up to 80 of our direct consumer loans17:46done digitally17:47up from the start three years ago uh17:50more and more digital17:51more and more demand for i want digital17:53and i want high touch i want the17:55branches and i want the digital17:57more and more artificial intelligence18:00applied more and more operational18:01excellence18:02across all our platforms in terms of18:04process engineering and taking out paper18:06and18:06putting in digital work those are the18:08themes are just going to be tremendous18:09artificial intelligence distributed18:11networks18:12data information movement all those18:15things are incredibly important18:17but those things have been with us now18:18the questions we may have made a step18:20change and we’ll be after that so18:22yes investors yes borrowers yes18:24everything but18:25it’s really the digital it’s the new18:27news not as much as the underlying18:29asset cost when we talk about a lot of18:31capital looking for18:32a limited number of investments it’s not18:34limited to esg goodness knows18:36we’re seeing a lot of situations that18:38some people think18:39might be a bubble or at least froth or18:41something are you concerned that in fact18:42because the liquidity that’s been18:44injected for good and sufficient reason18:45to help the economy18:46that we really are risking ourselves in18:48some places i’ll give you two examples18:50bitcoin goodness knows has gone all over18:52the place and another gamestop right now18:54that is really quite a phenomenon and18:55it’s not the only one right now that’s18:57really getting bid way up18:58should we be concerned that maybe this18:59is an indication that maybe we’re19:00getting a little bit out over our skis19:03yeah you know those issues the moment19:06happen that time you know in the ebbs19:08and flows in the market and frankly i19:10don’t have great insight as to19:12uh those things uh we’ve been clear19:14about how we stand on bitcoin and19:16versus blockchain which is a technology19:17and stuff but let me let me back up19:19and and and the question is when you19:22look at the economy19:24and it’s about as big as it was in 201819:27the projections from our team offered to19:28grow up five percent this year19:30in 21. um laugh at in 2018 in the19:33in the second quarter was the economy19:35was this big it was projected to grow at19:37like one half to two percent19:38and the interest rate environment was19:39100 150 basis points higher19:42and there wasn’t all this uh so there19:44wasn’t interest rate accommodation there19:45was a fiscal stimulus out there19:47now you have the same thing so the19:49fiscal stimulus is needed to help people19:51make it across the river here you have19:53six percent plus unemployment you have19:54these companies have an open that’s the19:56ppp19:56program you have holes in state budgets19:58and and that were created by the20:00cost of paying for all this work and20:03maybe tax20:04loss revenues and stuff those ought to20:06be dealt with and i think if we deal20:07with that20:08responsibly then what happens but the20:10possibility of overshooting here20:12is real and that’s what you’re hearing20:13less about the equity trading values the20:15moment but more about the question20:17when rates are one percent are going to20:18stay there for a long time20:20it’ll lead to risk and that could lead20:21to bubbles but the real question that20:23would be fundamentally bad for everybody20:25is if20:25if we miss the inflation turn and it’s20:27not there now but that’s one of the20:29challenges that20:30you know every that chair powell and his20:32colleagues have is to is to really be20:34watching this thing and they need to20:36make sure this great economy20:37grows again at the right rate and above20:39that right rate20:40and there’s some inflation in order to20:42make sure it doesn’t go backwards but on20:43the other hand20:44it’s going to be an interesting you know20:46as we move through the end of this year20:47the next year when this has all come20:48true the vaccine’s out and stuff it’ll20:50be interesting to see how they play20:51through that20:52well exactly let’s pursue that just for20:54a moment because uh there’s been a lot20:56of money given to a lot of people20:58again for good and sufficient reason20:59they’ve needed it but the indications21:01are a lot of it’s getting saved it’s not21:02getting spent in part because they don’t21:04have a place to spend it frankly because21:05a lot of the economy is shut down21:07how concerned are you as you look at the21:09economy because you have a real vantage21:10point into the economy broadly21:12i’ll continue there might be a snapback21:14that might actually trigger21:16believe it or not inflation we haven’t21:17talked about in a long time well21:19there’s been i mean it’s kind of21:20interesting if you traced last year21:22and we’ll see what the fourth quarter21:24all ends up final but21:25if you think about down 30 up 30 and up21:28a few percent21:29you have three four percentage points or21:30whatever it turns out to be and then21:32this quarter21:32the projections are may come down closer21:34to flat and that has a little bit to do21:35with the first quarter but21:37if you actually then pull that apart and21:38look at our our consumer21:40uh what we call consumer spending and so21:43debit and credit card spending is one21:45thing but this is around you know people21:46taking money on21:47atms and spending it writing checks for21:50services21:50uh p2p the zell product which is huge21:53right now21:54if you look at that spending through the21:57first 23 days of january21:59it’s up eight or nine percent over last22:01year’s first 23 days of january which22:03was up nine percent of the year before22:05so it is bigger in dollar amount it is22:07growing faster than it grew from22:10uh uh from eight uh from 19 to 20 18 to22:1419 and as fast as 19 to 2022:16if you look at the customer obviously22:17for the people who are unemployed and22:19you can see them receiving unemployment22:20benefits they’re using the money faster22:22if you look at the rest of customers22:23they’re using a discretionary retail not22:25uh sustenance retailing not you know so22:27they they are paying for their food22:28because they’re employed and so i think22:30these stimulus dollars can be spent much22:32more precise and i think the last22:34case was a good one and that it went22:35unemployment to the unemployment some22:37supplement there this22:39dollars under seventy five thousand22:40those are those are good items and22:41future stimulus ought to be likewise22:43geared22:44because otherwise it gets diminishing22:46returns and then you have the issue how22:47you pay for it long term and22:50the issue of whether it creates22:51inflation but there’s a lot of pent-up22:53savings and we would expect a good22:54second half of the year22:56now this is the mistake everybody makes22:58is they get talked about all the22:59economics and they forget there’s one23:01simple question23:02which is we have to win the war on the23:03virus and23:05right now we’re going in with a much23:07better23:08situation from a fight and that we have23:10this vaccine23:11and there’s vaccines going into people’s23:13arms and that then changes the course of23:15this23:15and yet that’s still out there but23:17that’s a light in a tunnel that wasn’t23:19here this year23:19you know last year in the summer23:23that was brian moynihan chairman and ceo23:25of bank of america23:28coming up working from home once seemed23:30to be the bold new innovation23:33but now for many the question is when23:35can i come back23:36to work people don’t come back to the23:38office new york cannot recover23:40and that’s really that’s really the sad23:42thing that’s happening now23:45this is wall street week on bloomberg23:51[Music]23:58this is wall street week i’m david24:00weston wall street has joined so many24:02others in figuring out how to work from24:04home24:04efficiently and effectively but the24:07appreciation for all that added24:08flexibility just24:09may be wearing off it feels like it is24:13fraying it is hard it takes a lot of24:18inner strength it’s remarkable that it’s24:20working as well as it is but i don’t24:21think it’s sustainable we have24:2310 12 back we weren’t telling they come24:25back but a lot of people want to come24:26back24:28related companies is the largest24:30landlord in new york city24:32and one of the most important real24:33estate developers in the entire country24:35and we asked its ceo jeff blau what it’s24:38going to take to get people back24:39into the office in new york the two24:42obvious answer answers are24:44vaccine roll out but probably even more24:47critical right now is testing um you24:50know we all thought24:51after new year’s that everyone would24:52would return right back to the office24:54but24:55in an interesting twist i i have a24:57feeling that the vaccine announcement24:59and the25:00closeness of it has really enabled25:02companies to just say you know i’m going25:04to25:04just wait it’s so close i’m not going to25:06pull everyone back to the office yet25:08you know unfortunately in new york25:11you know office actual occupancy people25:13showing up for25:14at their desk every day is under 1025:17um and it’s it’s critical that we kind25:20of25:20really push testing make people feel25:23safe and comfortable25:24until they ultimately do get vaccine so25:26people come back to the office if people25:28don’t come back to the office new york25:29cannot recover one of the things we’re25:31very conscious of in new york obviously25:32are the financial organizations uh do25:34you have a sense of companies in25:36in wall street how eager they are to get25:38their people back in25:40you know i’d say it varies i mean i’m25:42sure you’ve heard david solomon really25:44encouraging25:45uh goldman to encourage his employees to25:48get back25:49he had a very uh funny quote he kind of25:52said25:52well sure you guys all want to work home25:54from your living room and you can do25:56that25:57until your competitor shows up in person25:59and wins an assignment26:00you guys need to get back to the office26:02right so i do think that there is26:04pressure26:05um the market will ultimately bring26:07pressure for people to come back26:09you know it’s interesting you hear a lot26:10about uh tech tenants or ceos saying26:14i’m gonna let my employees just work26:15from home until june or december or or26:18forever in some cases26:20and yet behind the scenes when you talk26:22to them and i i spent a lot of my time26:25doing exactly that really trying to26:26understand26:27what their plans are they realize that26:30this doesn’t work from a26:32long-term perspective they realize that26:34culture is not26:35does not work it is not created over26:37zoom over skype or26:39whatever we’re using today and you26:42really26:42interactions happen in the hallway and26:44you bump into each other i know26:46certainly here at related that’s how26:48we work it’s a little bit less formal26:50and our best meetings just occur26:52when you walk down the hall and see26:53somebody and it’s it’s hard to26:56to create that on zoom you can’t26:57schedule that interaction26:59um how do you how do you train new27:02people27:03you know you have an incoming class of27:05analysts27:06uh goldman has 2500 new analysts come in27:10and what are they supposed to do on zoom27:12so i i ultimately do think27:14um i think the long run answer here is27:18that27:18there will be more flexibility in the27:20workplace27:21i think that employees value the ability27:24to work from home27:25a portion of the time if you divide a27:27person’s day into27:29the bump into a hall an interactive27:31meeting and27:32writing an investment memo which they27:34can do by themselves27:35maybe there’s a way to divide that work27:37up and the i’m just using this the27:39investment memo writing actually happens27:41you know on friday at home27:43um and the rest is but it also needs to27:46be a coordinated day27:47in that world of more flexibility as you27:49call it does that affect the long-term27:51demand27:52for commercial real estate as a27:54practitioner are you looking at a27:55different curve on the out years27:58um i don’t really think so because28:00ultimately you still need28:02for those days that you’re coming in28:05people to have an office28:06i what i think might happen is that the28:09build out of space28:10might change so there might be more28:12meeting rooms more conference facilities28:14more auditoriums28:15and smaller certainly private offices28:18and and maybe more open cube type28:22seating so28:23i think it’s going to change i don’t i28:25don’t think it will really affect28:26the overall demand are you seeing a28:29shift in your own business between28:31commercial on the one hand and28:33and uh residential on the other and28:35particularly when it comes to some of28:36the big luxury malls you had a really28:38big one there28:39at hudson yards are you shifting your28:41use at that massive project on hudson28:43yards28:44yes so we spent a lot of time thinking28:47about the future of real estate28:48development28:49um in response to the pandemic but also28:52just over time that everything evolves28:55and actually if you think about hudson28:56yards it really28:58had uh many of the features that we29:00think are critical today29:02i mean the the the words that people29:04like to say today are29:0515 minute cities what does that really29:07mean it means that you want basically29:09everything you could work your whole day29:11or spend your whole day within a29:1215-minute walk so it goes back to29:15kind of the live work play nature of of29:17the way we’ve been designing our29:19mixed-use developments29:20so you think about hudson yards here we29:22have office retail residential retail as29:24you said29:26yes is there too much retail in many of29:28these things today29:29yes and we are converting a former29:32neiman marcus base into29:33420 000 square feet of of incredible29:36office space29:37because there is demand for office and29:39less demand for retail29:42that was jeff blau ceo of related29:44companies at the bloomberg year ahead29:46summit29:48coming up the biden administration takes29:50on the battle with covet29:52and dealing with the economic29:53consequences of it we talked with29:55council of economic advisers member29:57jared bernstein about what is needed30:00this package30:01uh uh is is what is what it’s going to30:05take30:05to finally put covet 19 behind us30:11this is wall street week on bloomberg30:24this is wall street week i’m david30:26weston the bind administration is30:27hitting the ground running30:29but boy does it have a lot of ground to30:30cover we talked with the long time bind30:33advisor30:34just named to the council of economic30:35advisers jared bernstein30:37about what it needs to get done30:40the biggest problem is a dual problem30:42and you yourself david just30:45nailed it which is the dual impact30:48of the persistence of the virus30:51and its impact on economic activity on30:54commerce30:55unemployment on our ability to really30:58get30:58a recovery underway and as i think you31:02know31:02it’s not a uh an impact that is hitting31:05everyone31:06when the president talks about a31:08k-shaped recovery he’s talking about31:09something real31:10when he talks about racial equity he’s31:12also making a connection31:14between who gets most hurt by these31:16dynamics these dual dynamics were31:18describing31:19and this uh legislative priority top31:22legislative priority31:23of passing the american rescue plan uh31:26this package31:27uh uh is is what is what it’s going to31:30take31:31to finally put covet 19 behind us31:35and get a bona fide recovery underway it31:38funds a national31:39vaccine campaign to dramatically31:42increase the pace of inoculations of31:45vaccines it mobilizes a hundred thousand31:48public health workers31:49it ramps up testing treatments and31:51therapeutics31:52it engages with emergency paid leave it31:55brings science31:56back into the picture in a big way it31:58provides states and localities32:00with the money they need to reopen32:01schools which is so important for kids32:03and their parents and the economy32:05and that and you know i can say much32:06more about its components but32:08that is the dual challenge we face32:11and this plan is designed to attack it32:14and attack it hard32:16and i must say jared i don’t hear many32:18people republican or democrat32:19complaining about trying to really32:20attract the coronavirus getting the32:22vaccination program up supporting public32:24health things like that32:25there are other issues though that32:26people ask is it really targeted at that32:28k32:28aspect you just addressed how do we make32:30sure the dollars get to the people who32:32need it the most32:33for example on the 1400 payments anybody32:35will say some people really32:36need that desperately frankly some32:38people don’t they’ve kept their jobs32:39they’re doing just fine32:41yeah now that’s important and i think32:43the uh thing to recognize32:45there is that the checks are are better32:48targeted than i think many folks realize32:50now that doesn’t mean that they just go32:52to folks at the bottom32:54but that’s because it’s not just folks32:56at the bottom who need the money32:57and if anybody’s listening to me in the32:59you know 75 100k33:01range uh many of them yes many have kept33:04their jobs many have lost hours many33:06have lost wages33:07lots of those folks again i’m not just33:10talking about the poorest i’m talking33:11about folks in the middle class33:12something that’s always been33:14very important uh to uh to president33:16biden so he talks a lot about the33:18struggles that middle class families33:20have had in recent decades33:21many of those folks face um uh33:24uh issues around rent and um mortgage33:27payments so33:28there’s been these moratorium in play as33:30you know and that’s a lot that but33:31moratorium is not33:33you know forbearance is is not33:34forgiveness so at the end of these33:36moratoria33:38uh people face very significant bills33:40now that means that they and this is33:42really33:42important bit of economics here this33:44gets down into some keynesian33:45multipliers33:47um what we’re talking about here is that33:50yes33:50some of these expenditures will be33:53initially saved and not spent33:55and that gives them kind of you know a33:57low mo a lower multiplier in a keynesian33:59sense34:00but that’s just kind of a technocratic34:02concern34:03i think what’s most important is that we34:05finally34:06look ahead that was jared bernstein34:10member of president biden’s council of34:12economic advisors at the bloomberg34:13year ahead summit and now it’s time for34:15a look at the week ahead34:17on global wall street thanks david the34:20liquidity squeeze in china will remain34:23front and center34:24well we’ll be looking at the january34:26readings on china’s pmis to get an idea34:28of the economy’s pulse34:30we also have central bank meetings in34:31australia and thailand34:33with the rba expected to maintain its 7734:36billion34:36quantitative easing program india’s34:39finance minister has a tough job on her34:41hands to help spur a recovery in an34:43economy facing its worst recession34:46since 1952 when the country’s budget is34:49handed down on monday34:51and quiet show technology the main rival34:53to bike dance in china34:55is slated to list in hong kong on friday34:57in what would be the world’s34:58biggest internet ipo since uber danny35:02thanks juliet in the eu a dispute has35:05opened up35:06between them and astrazeneca with the eu35:09saying that they need to fill their35:10contractual obligation to deliver more35:13vaccines35:13despite the fact there was a glitch in35:15belgium production35:17at the week ahead we also have a boe35:19meeting to look forward to35:21what will the reaction from the boe be35:23considering that data has significantly35:26weakened35:26in the uk we’ll see what type of35:28stimulus they might35:30propose or any other support measures35:32romaine35:33thanks danny well u.s investors will35:35have a slew of corporate earnings to35:36digest next week more than a quarter35:39of the 1000 largest u.s listed companies35:41set to report earnings35:42big tech will be in focus alibaba35:45alphabet and amazon35:46and in the healthcare space pfizer amgen35:48and regeneron35:49will be ones to keep an eye on based on35:51the company’s reporting so far35:53the s p 500 in aggregate has seen about35:56a one percent drop in earnings per35:58share despite the fact that revenues are36:00actually higher now on the economic36:01front keep an eye out for manufacturing36:03data on monday36:04auto sales on tuesday and u.s monthly36:06employment numbers36:07that arrives on friday and will be sure36:09to bring back into focus36:11that two trillion dollar fiscal stimulus36:13plan that president joe biden36:14is trying to push through congress david36:18thanks to juliet danny and romain36:22coming up we wrap up the week as always36:24with special contributor larry summers36:26of harvard36:28this is wall street week on bloomberg36:41this is wall street week i’m david36:42weston we wrap up every week with our36:44special contributor larry summers of36:46harvard36:46and this week we have to get larry’s36:48thoughts on the phenomenon that is36:50gamestop36:51and what it may tell us about the state36:52of our markets our economy and maybe our36:55politics36:56more broadly i should say larry so thank36:58you so much for being with us uh you’re37:00a macroeconomist you’re not a day trader37:02that i’m aware of you’re not a short37:03seller that i’m aware of37:05so i’m not asking about as a trader but37:07from a macro perspective37:09is gamestop let me put it simply a fluke37:12or a symptom37:15i think it’s a bit of i think it’s a bit37:16of both i think it37:18points up that there’s a lot of activity37:22in finance and in financial markets37:24that’s not necessarily particularly37:26productive37:27or particularly rational and that37:29there’s a need for37:30adult supervision uh sometimes37:33uh i don’t think that this is something37:36that’s either gonna37:37lift the economy up or bring the37:40american economy37:42uh down but it does seem like there’s37:45more risk uh than there has to be37:49born in a variety of directions so37:52that’s a question really could this be a37:53canary in the mine shaft37:55the economy’s not going to make it or37:58not make it based on gamestop goodness37:59knows38:00but it could be an indication couldn’t38:02it of of of sort of froth or even more38:05than fourth maybe a bubble as you know38:06chair powell has asked about that38:08this week look i i think you’ve got to38:11be38:12concerned gamestop is one thing38:16the uh ways in which ipos have38:19popped by a factor of two or three38:23the uh new financing vehicles38:26associated with some of what’s happened38:30in38:31the spac sector certainly not all of38:33what’s happened in the38:34uh spac sector all of this38:37has a slight feeling of 2000 or 192938:42uh in the air and so i think the idea38:46that we’ve got a new group of financial38:48regulators coming in who are38:50more committed to regulation than the38:53previous38:54uh group i think that’s all welcome38:58whether that means that markets are in39:00some39:01aggregate sense uh overvalued uh39:05that’s not a judgment uh that i’d be39:08prepared to reach39:09uh certainly with confidence but i39:12certainly think39:12risks are uh in a39:16two-way direction but i also39:20think david that you got to look at both39:22sides as yes39:23there is retail froth not everything39:27that’s done by39:28short short sellers is especially39:31attractive39:32either and certainly there have been39:34excesses of the practice39:37of uh short selling and then trying to39:40disparage and39:42so there are things that have gone on in39:44the hedge fund39:45uh community that i think uh39:48can at least be uh questioned39:51uh as well and in general the activity39:55of some people trying to short and other39:56people trying to39:58uh squeeze them and people trying to40:01create bandwagons40:02to the down uh to the downside40:06it’s a pretty imperfect uh40:09business and i don’t think anybody can40:12feel entirely comfortable about what’s40:14there40:15i guess the other question i’d want to40:17put40:18is not all well-intentioned regulation40:23works out well and you know it turned40:26out that in their early incarnations40:28certainly circuit breakers ended up40:31exacerbating volatility because people40:34started selling when they were afraid40:36the market40:37might close in the incarnation that got40:40put in some of the rules we had on money40:43market funds40:44actually made runs on money market funds40:47more likely not less likely so40:51indignation and dismay about the status40:54quo40:55may be a necessary condition for new40:57regulation40:59but it’s not a sufficient condition for41:01any kind of41:03regulations i think we’re going to need41:06people who are with regulatory41:07responsibility to sit down41:09consult with all the parties reflect41:12very carefully41:13on what’s happened here and what its41:16lessons are41:18larry from your experience having41:20studied these things and lived through a41:21fair number of them41:22where does this all lead i mean this41:24week we had the likes of41:25alexandria ocasio-cortez joined together41:28with ted cruz for goodness sakes to41:30agree41:30there’s got to be a congressional41:31investigation where does washington take41:33something like this41:38look i’d almost be prepared to say that41:41whenever aoc and ted cruz agree41:44they’re wrong and that there’s a general41:47principle41:49when a cause attracts the attention41:53of both extremes41:56you have to worry a lot about that42:00particular uh cause42:03and i think the idea that42:06somehow the people who are involved in42:10this42:10are really great social justice warriors42:13um and that this is an occasion to get42:16the man42:17i don’t think is a particularly fruitful42:20way to think about42:21uh policy but my guess is that two42:25things are going to happen42:26one is this thing’s gonna in some ways42:30set in its own undoing they’re gonna be42:32some painful lessons learned42:34people are gonna be more careful about42:36shorts about shorting42:38because they got squeezed and routed on42:40the one side42:41and people who are involved in pushing42:43this stock up to ludicrous levels are42:45probably going to end up losing a lot of42:47money42:48and they’re going to learn a lesson from42:49that too so to some extent42:51this thing is going to teach its own42:53lessons and42:55i think the dull work of government42:58we’re not going to have any instant43:00legislation43:02but we’re going to have committees43:03formed to study various aspects of this43:07to make recommendations that are then43:09considered43:10is actually going to probably lead us43:12with better financial43:14markets and a better set of rules43:17than the rules we have today okay larry43:20let’s wrap up the week as we do every43:22week43:22with some summer says three quick43:24questions number one on the vaccination43:26program43:27will it over perform or underperform43:29what is now expected43:30i think it’s going to over perform i43:32think it was a masterpiece of spin43:35frankly to define the objective as 10043:38million doses over43:39100 days at a time when even the trump43:42administration had figured out how to do43:44850 00043:46doses a day so i think they’re going to43:49see that43:49target massively outperformed on43:52my best guess would be you’ll see 17543:56million doses43:57in uh the first hundred days and that’s44:00as it should be44:02and if we don’t get a bad shock from44:05biology44:06i think we’re going to make more44:07progress more quickly on covid44:10than many people expect what kind of44:12progress we’re going to see with the44:13economy44:13second question is will we over perform44:16or underperform current expectations for44:18the u.s economy44:19different people have different44:21expectations but i’m betting on growth44:23above six percent this year44:25and i think that’s over performing on44:28most people’s expectations i really44:30think we44:31very much now are in a world of44:34two-sided risk44:36both in terms of real activity and in44:38terms of possible inflation risk44:41third thing jay powell chairman of the44:44federal reserve we heard from this week44:45we heard from the fomc44:47how do you react to what you heard and44:49saw44:52we’re lucky to have jay there and i44:55think in the fullness of it all he’s44:57made44:58very good judgments i45:01think that they need to be more mindful45:04of the possibility that the conventional45:07wisdom is wrong45:09and that we have a little more inflation45:12picking up45:13a little sooner or that financial45:16markets get away from us45:18and so i thought he was45:21so focused on providing reassurance45:25on the fed’s continued stimulus to the45:28economy45:29that he created a dynamic where if it45:32was necessary45:33to do things the other way it would come45:36as a pretty jarring shock45:38and that was my worry about how he45:41calibrated the balance45:43by all things considered i’m glad he’s45:45there45:46larry it’s always such a pleasure to45:48deal with you every single week that is45:50special wall street week contributor45:51larry summers45:52of harvard finally one more thought45:57the vaccination site 800 years in the46:00making46:00as we press forward urgently impatiently46:03to get as many people vaccinated as soon46:06as possible46:06we face a series of hurdles46:08manufacturing doses as fast as we can46:10testing and approving new vaccines46:12getting the medicine distributed46:14covering the last mile and getting it46:16into people’s arms46:18only vaccinating everybody everywhere46:22would get us out of the risk of this46:24mutation46:25but of all the problems we face real46:27estate isn’t really one of them46:30google the term mass vaccination sites46:32and you get almost46:33one and a half million results46:35everything from pharmacies to hospitals46:37to sports arenas we hope to open up in46:40roughly about46:40two weeks time to do base center for uh46:43mass46:44vaccination centers but there’s only one46:46that has the highest spire in all of46:48england46:48the largest cathedral clothes the46:50largest cloister and that is the46:51cathedral of salisbury46:53where according to legend at least back46:55in about 12 20 or so46:57a bishop shot an arrow into the air hit46:59a deer and where the deer fell is where47:01they built the cathedral47:02and that cathedral now is a mass47:04vaccination site47:06and now the chapel of saint michael the47:08archangel is filled with refrigerators47:10for the vaccine the huge nave is full of47:13chairs47:13rather than pews and that’s where the47:15elderly who have been inoculated wait to47:18make sure they have47:19no allergic reaction wait while two47:22church organists play soothing music47:24while they wait47:25you can call it song freud you can call47:28it a stiff upper lip47:29but as we all wait for the vaccine we47:31believe will save us47:33leave it to the brits to do it with47:35class47:36that does it for this episode of wall47:38street week i’m david weston this is47:40bloomberg47:41see you next week
@RaoulGMI identified the following factors contributing to a crisis, before Coronavirus:
- Stocks: Largest Equity Bubble of All Time: (Pension Crisis & Buyback Bubble)
- Largest Retiree Wave, all wanting to sell stocks and bonds at the same time
- Millennials are too poor and indebted (make 20% less than parents)
- Corporate Credit: Largest Credit Bubble of All Time
- ($10 Trillion + Off balance Sheet = 75% of GDP)
- Student Loan Bubble:
- $1.6 Trillion
- Auto Loan Bubble
- ($1.2 Trillion)
- Indexation Bubble
- ETF/Market Structure Bubble
- Foreign Borrowings (Dollar Standard Bubble)
- Monetary Policy Bubble (The Central Bank Bubble)
- EU Banking Crisis
- why they hired Christine Lagarde, for her political negotiating skills to deal with the nationalization of the European banks (which are facing insolvency) not for her economic or financial skills
- A Trade War:
- The Trade Wars “shattered” supply chains
- Largest Supply & Demand Shocks of all Time
Central Banks have been fighting for the last 20 years:
- Full Scale Debt Deflation and a Solvency Crisis
- A loss of confidence in the Dollar Standard and the Entire Financial Architecture
The US continues to defy all rational valuation metrics as it continues to make new highs. I contend this is the result of the huge amount of liquidity being provided to the markets by the FED. This bubble now appears to be entering its blow off phase. As I have said before, just because a market is overvalued does not earn it cannot become more overvalued.
Nevertheless, at some point the music will stop and a massive decline in the stock market will occur.
Will the reduced economic activity caused by the coronavirus be the needle that pricks this bubble. So far the markets, with the exception of commodity markets, are shrugging off the news that China is basically on lockdown.
The German energy transition continues to fail as the country considers building more coal generation as energy rates soar and CO2 emission targets are not being met. A lesson for policy makers in the US to take into consideration.
Transcript00:00hey guys John Paula me here actionable00:03intelligence00:04today is Sunday February 16 2020 this is00:09the weekly market update00:11so before right before I get into the00:14charts I just want to make some comments00:16on the continuing coronavirus situation00:20as it relates to what we’re doing when00:23it relates to in the markets and I’m a00:28little bit I don’t know00:31shocked not shocked but what’s the right00:34word confused we’re seeing all-time00:38highs last week and in many stocks in00:42the stock market and so you know it00:49makes you wonder what’s going on is the00:51market so efficient that its pricing and00:54the fact that this isn’t going to be a00:56big deal or is it more that I what I01:00think it is which is a liquidity bubble01:03plus all kinds of money coming into the01:06US for various reasons safe haven flows01:10if you will I think that’s probably an01:14explanation for why stocks are going up01:15there’s some stocks that are01:17inexplicably not going down which should01:20I’ll give some examples as we go and get01:23into the discussion what I want to say01:25though is is that I’m getting very very01:27concerned about the bubblicious01:29conditions we are at some of the highest01:31bubble levels that I’ve ever seen01:34now we’ve been talking about that for a01:36while and we’ve said that liquidity01:39flows matter you know the stock market01:42isn’t necessarily correlated with the01:44economy in the longer term it seems to01:47be but you know it’s liquidity matters01:50and with the QE for that that the Fed is01:55doing that the QE for non QE for01:58whatever they want to call it the repos02:00that’s high-powered money that’s t-bills02:03they’re buying this is the first time02:04they’ve done that in many years and that02:06money is going directly into the markets02:09couple that with the fact that you02:11already had dollar flows into the u.s.02:13prior to the coronavirus and now the02:16u.s. still being a safe haven that’s02:19where the money’s going so I would02:22caution you it what’s what’s fascinating02:25is is the the only thing that’s really02:27bad are commodities so the commodities02:30are showing us that you know demand is02:34obviously gonna have a knock-on effect02:36from this you know when you shut down02:39the Chinese economy basically you’re02:41gonna in some largest consumer of things02:43like oil largest importer of oil copper02:46aluminum cement things like this you’re02:51going to have a knock-on effect as China02:54basically everybody’s in quarantine and02:56Industry slows down we’ve also seen that02:58in the supply chains we’ve seen more03:01announcement this week we saw one03:03announcement where the company went back03:06to work and there was like a thousand or03:092,000 employees and what the employees03:11had coronavirus now everybody’s03:13quarantined to the factory they can’t03:14even go home so I don’t know I’m back to03:18what I’ve said before I don’t really03:20know what’s going on here do you trust03:23the data in China no if you look at the03:24John Hopkins tracker coronavirus tracker03:28they take in they don’t just take in one03:30bit of information they gather03:32information from several sources it03:33seems like things may be starting to03:36peak in China if you believe the data03:38which I want I don’t believe the data I03:41would say though that I think the rest03:46of the world cases are still going up03:48slightly they’re still under a thousand03:49cases it’s like 750 outside of China03:54most of them concentrated in the areas03:56directly around China so there’s 1504:00cases in the US for example so we’re not04:03seeing this big epidemic now there are04:06many commentators or people that I’ve04:08listened to that said that the next wave04:10is coming and this thing is going to04:11explode outwards I don’t really know04:13what I’m I’m not a you know happened04:15epithelium ologist04:17I don’t have not an expert on academics04:20epidemics outside my circle of04:22confidence we still have to look at04:23those it’s affecting the markets that04:25were involved with which is resource04:27markets04:27for in a large part so I would be very04:34cautious if I was basically one of the04:38things I’m recommending is you know I04:39mean I think we’re going to see some04:42interest rate cuts from the Federal04:43Reserve as the economic numbers have to04:47be affected by this they have to be I04:50mean you’re just not going to have this04:52kind of slowdown in China and not have04:54it have a have an effect on the rest of04:55the world so I expect that that means05:00higher bond prices probably especially05:02in the Treasury market that’s a good05:03place play to put money in a short term05:06cash is always good I have a lot of cash05:09I like gold still Gold’s in a bull05:12market I think with the accelerating05:14monetary malfeasance that continues05:16around the world especially in the US05:18and I think you know what’s gonna happen05:20in China I think gold is poised to go a05:23lot higher especially with the debt05:26levels in the US we’re gonna be hitting05:28trillion dollar deficits I wrote an05:30article this week that kind of pointed05:33out the fact that I believe this is the05:35first year when the Social Security05:37trust fund now goes into the red and is05:40now going to become an on budget item so05:42you’re gonna have to pay out of the05:46federal budget there’s the two hundred05:48billion dollars that you don’t have in05:50the Social Security trust fund and I’ve05:52written articles about that people can05:54go my my site and look at that so there05:57is no lockbox there is no thing nothing06:00to dip into it’s just a bunch of IOU use06:01that now come do so things are not06:05getting better they’re getting worse but06:08yet the markets move higher and higher06:10and higher because it’s all about06:11liquidity so you know if you look at the06:16Venezuelan and Zimbabwe stock markets06:19when they went into hyperinflations06:21that’s not what I’m suggesting is gonna06:22happen in the US I’m not suggesting the06:24hyperinflation but if you look at their06:25stock markets they crashed upwards06:27there’s people piled in the stocks who06:30tried to hold some type of value so like06:35I said all these bubbles and we’ve06:37talked about bubbles even since I’ve had06:38this channel we’ve went through two06:40bubbles the Bitcoin06:41bubble that was one of the first videos06:42I did was about Bitcoin being a bubble06:44it was it crashed people a lot of people06:47lost a lot of money06:48same thing with cannabis stocks we06:50talked about that that’s now crashed06:52people have lost a lot of money so you06:56know we’ve seen bubbles before here’s a07:02chart shows various bubbles what happens07:04they crash they don’t usually come back07:07for a while you see the this particular07:10person chose excuse us what as07:11disruptors it’s just the post great07:14financial crisis that induced bubble but07:17this is the greatest one of all and it’s07:19now gonna go it’s I now believe it’s07:21accelerating too far it’s blow off top07:22and this is something we suggested in07:24previous videos what happened I’ve07:25talked about this I’ve got a Cassandra07:29but I suggested that even though the07:33stock market was overvalued and it’s07:34been overvalued from a long time it can07:37get way more it can get way overvalued07:39you can get much more overvalued and it07:42probably will another chart here you can07:47see going back to 1991 this is the07:51build-up to y2k that was going to be the07:53you know computers were gonna lock up07:55the world was gonna end the Greenspan07:58Fed printed a bunch of money it led to08:01the tech bubble it blew off but what08:04happened this is the Nasdaq he crashed08:0690% then you had your great financial08:09crisis in here we’ve had nothing but08:11money printing since and now QE 4 if you08:14will and we are now accelerating to what08:16I think is the blow-off top in this US08:19stock market so you need to be you need08:24to be concerned you need to be08:26understand what’s happening now I don’tknow what’s gonna prick the bubble someI’m looking at my my indicators as Ilook at the high-yield debt market whichI think will be the first thing thatrolls over and it’s not there’s no feverthere there’s no issues there right now08:42that can change you know as we start you08:45know one of the things like forecasts08:47are thought what could happen was that08:50if we did go into a recession there’s a08:52lot of zombie companies about 25 to 3008:55percent08:55the companies out there that have junk08:57debt are zombie companies and they08:59cannot afford to have rates go up rates09:05won’t go up unless we have some huge09:07breakout inflation so what could happen09:10though is that the economy slows09:11massively because of this China thing09:13cash flows can be constricted and that09:16could force companies into a situation09:18where they do not have sufficient cash09:21flow to service their debt and then you09:23begin a cascading flow of waterfall09:27effect if you will of debt explosions09:32and and you know reorganizations so I09:35think that’s a possibility but my09:39original thesis was that this thing was09:41gonna rip and roar we were gonna have an09:43energy was going to drag the inflation09:45rate up I we were on that track and then09:48the coronavirus had you remember we had09:50WT I was over it was sixty two dollars a09:52barrel at the beginning of January and I09:56was forecasting higher oil prices09:58because of the lack of investment and10:00the slowdown in shale and I thought that10:02that might be what kicks inflation into10:05gear and forces the Fed to raise rates10:08but now with the coronavirus and the10:11collapse and commodity prices that’s10:14happened that particular pin has been10:17put back into the into the drawer so10:21this is really amazing though because if10:23you look here at what’s happening in our10:25stock market I mean you could this just10:27correlates perfectly with what happened10:29with that we whole repo QE for non QE10:33for is what I call it so liquidity10:36really does drive these markets whether10:39people can then me you know you10:40supercharge this what the fund flows10:42into the US as because of it being a10:45safe haven or considered a safe haven or10:47the least dirty shirt in the HAMP or10:50however you want to characterize it but10:52this is what we are seen and this is not10:55healthy this is not going to end well10:57folks this is not good we’re gonna see10:59this blow off and then we’re gonna see11:01and I don’t know what’s gonna happen on11:03the downside so let’s go back talk about11:07some China stuff11:08for a while here her the resource11:10markets you know so the Baltic Dry Index11:12you know 415 it’s been a decline since11:18mid-2009 teen as the world economy was11:20slowing down but then we’ve got this you11:23know really what’s happened since the11:25beginning of the year and this11:26coronavirus took off and this things11:28crashed by you know three quarters or11:33two-thirds this is that lows we haven’t11:36seen in a decade so or almost of the11:41lows of 2016 so anyway this is not good11:44this is an indication that you know iron11:47or various ore concentrates they’re not11:52flowing you know because China is11:55basically shut down you know we’ve11:57already seen China declare a force11:58majeure on some energy deliveries like12:00LNG deliveries not good but what I’m12:08showing you this for is because I’m not12:09seeing the knock-on effect the market so12:11really don’t seem to be pricing any of12:12this in and it’s kind of it’s very weird12:15the signal is not good there’s China12:19travel collapse this was the passenger12:21transport volumes in China during the12:23Lunar New Year you see that we are12:25downed on rail roadway and air travel12:30anywhere from sixty to eighty percent12:33almost it’s a complete collapse the12:35whole country’s in lockdown basically12:39what I want to talk about why is this12:41relevant I just picked this one company12:43because I’ve heard other people talking12:45about it and kind of piqued my interest12:46this is wind resorts that’s a casino12:48operator they have properties in Las12:52Vegas but they also have two casinos I12:54believe in Macau which is a another12:56small island off the coast of China12:59where they allow gambling a lot of13:01Chinese well ninety five percent I’m13:04sure 99 percent of the traffic there is13:06is to these casinos is from China13:13mainland China what I find fascinating13:16here is is that the two casinos I look13:19at some of the financials real quickly13:20for Wynn Resorts13:22and the casinos the two casinos in Macau13:29are shut down now they’re still making13:30payroll basically they’re not to just13:34keep the casinos in the current state13:37they are paying payroll the 12,00013:39employees is about 2.5 million a day13:41they have no revenue coming in I believe13:43these two casinos if I read it correctly13:45contribute 300 million dollars of EBIT13:48da to the two Wynn Resorts bottom line13:52last year I think a billion dollars in13:54sales if I’m not mistaken regardless13:58when you shut down a large portion I13:59mean you had a bit of a drop off14:00obviously I mean actually if you look at14:05the beginning of 2020 when this virus14:06took off this thing made all new time14:07highs and then it it kind of did pull14:09back but not like you would think I mean14:12it pulled back about you know 20 percent14:15and now it’s rallying again why is this14:17thing rallying when there’s you know two14:20of their major properties and their14:21major revenue generators I mean are not14:24you know in business they’re just14:27sitting there we have no idea when14:28they’re gonna reopen so well I like I14:31said there’s two things going on here14:33either the market is efficient and its14:35pricing and the information and the14:36coronavirus is gonna blow over in the14:38next you know a few weeks or month or14:41two and then we’re gonna be back to14:42business as usual that’s one option of14:45another option as the market is just not14:47getting this I mean the same thing14:48you’re seeing like some of these cruise14:49ship companies these things should be14:51crashing who is taking a cruise with you14:54know to cruise ships go around like you14:56know Typhoid ships that can’t even get14:58into various ports I know I’m15:00overdramatizing that one of the ships15:02can’t but one of the one of the ships I15:04think that’s in Japan they’re finally15:05taking off British and American15:07passengers the governments of the UK and15:10the United States are dealing with this15:12but you know this news is not good this15:16thing’s supposed supposedly is so very15:17early and yet people are still taking15:21cruises and the you know it’s not really15:24being reflected you think any stock15:25prices only stock prices it’s reading15:27reflected as the resource markets you15:30know gold and copper down you know15:33anywhere from 15 or that gold but what15:36copper or down anywhere from 15 to 2015:38percent the stocks are down 30% which is15:42what you would expect get priced in15:45because of the you know like I showed15:47you earlier China’s basically shut down15:48so I don’t know this is not making a lot15:51of sense this thing is either gonna blow15:53over or it’s just going to we don’t know15:55what’s gonna happen and I just think15:57that some of the reactions in this15:58market are just ridiculous and they16:01don’t make any sense it’s just I think16:04like I said liquidity driven and no16:08fundamentals are even being considered16:09so you got to be careful out there guys16:11this is not this is really not textbook16:15what’s going on here well like I said16:17I’m still I still like gold I think you16:20can’t go wrong at gold sir we already16:22knows was in a bull market if we’re16:24gonna see increased money or increased16:27currency units being put into16:29circulation then I think that that’s16:33going to manifest itself in a higher16:34gold price at some point continued16:37higher gold price we’re starting to see16:38earnings come out excuse me16:41cup sum up some of the gold companies16:43ones that I follow I’ll just give you16:47one that I like that I follow I don’t16:48have it in the portfolio but I like it16:50it’s a company called Caledonia mining16:52they have a mine a very very profitable16:55mine in Zimbabwe and yeah I know people16:59kind of scoff at that but the company17:00really is a performer and they really up17:02their guidance for this year next year17:06because just of the gold price and how17:10that leverage is translating with their17:12low costs and their increase in17:13production so you really you know with17:17lower fuel costs with the oil price down17:19that’s a major component of a lot of the17:20miners and that’s going to have a17:23knock-on effect also so it also depends17:26where you’re operate if you’re operating17:27in a country like Zimbabwe and your17:29costs are in Zimbabwe dollars which are17:31being depreciated by the government and17:33yet you’re selling your commodity for US17:35dollars that also helps quite a bit I17:40want to give some other things here17:42quickly us to create a uranium reserve17:46we saw the news it was all over the17:47tortoise Twittersphere you17:49twit it looks like that starting next17:55year the Trump administration put into17:58the budget to create a uranium reserve18:04if you will 150 million dollars a year18:06for the next ten years do I think that’s18:09a major market mover no but I think it’s18:13it’s part of the commitment the Trump18:14administration is making to uranium and18:17to nuclear power in the US I mean we are18:19totally behind everyone else I mean it’s18:22just ridiculous18:22I mean somewhere close to 20 percent of18:28our our power in the United States is18:32from nuclear power and we don’t even18:34mind 1% of our fuel and process it here18:37I mean that’s just a national security18:38issue not only that just based on our18:40nuclear Navy fleet so I think that if18:44the if Trump gets reelected he is18:48pro-nuclear I’m Pro nuclear I think this18:50is good for the country18:52we shouldn’t be relying on Russia and18:56causality z’ and for our uranium it’s19:02just not in our interest to do that we19:05also need to get you know I’ve always19:06been an advocate for this I’m gonna say19:08it again19:08you know if you really are into stem19:10which is science technology engineering19:11and math and you really want high wages19:14and you really want to deal with climate19:16change if you if you think that co2 is19:19the control knob for climate then why19:22not do something like build 100 nuclear19:25power plants in the next 10 years or 2019:27in 10 years or something like that19:28because these are high paying jobs and19:30long life construction projects very19:32technical even for the operations19:34personnel that work there you have to19:36have be very highly educated19:38these are high-paying jobs it would19:41create a infrastructure manufacturing19:45infrastructure based here in the US that19:46we could export and we’ve just left this19:49to the Chinese and Russians and that’s19:51just stupid because the Chinese and19:53Russians use their nuclear industry to19:58gain political footholds and countries20:00and to cozy up with him and they20:02run the thing fullcycle they’ll come in20:04engineering procure and construct then20:06operate then deal with the fuel supply20:09and the waste you just sit there and you20:11know charge for the electricity while20:13they run everything so that helps their20:16home industries that are involved in20:18this it helps them politically as they20:21go around the world and try to woo20:24various countries to their block so the20:31u.s. from any perspective you look at if20:34you are look at it from wages climate20:36change energy supply energy diversity20:40national security it just makes sense20:42and I think that you know a lot of20:46people make fun of Trump but I think he20:48does he spot-on on this so this isn’t a20:52game changer but it’s more you know more20:54wind in the sails and it certainly isn’t20:56going to hurt things now I want to bring20:59up some things this is gonna get me some21:01bad mail people don’t like this wanted21:04to talk about read some good articles21:06this week about the energy transition in21:09Germany’s fleet joke it’s it’s it’s big21:13problems I’ll put an article up had it21:17really pretty good vignettes in there I21:19mean basically you know here’s that21:20here’s a slide from the article this is21:22green Germany’s proposed coal plant21:25expansions you know you’ve got your yeah21:28just in the yellow that you’ve got for21:30these late-night mines21:31that’s that surface mining with that21:33cheap dirty coal of course you got the21:35other plant sees that these are plants21:37that are going to be built because solar21:41and wind are not getting that the energy21:43transitions not happening and the Merkel21:46regime there which is not going to be in21:48power much longer I don’t think well is21:52you know did a snap judgment on shutting21:56down or phasing out and shutting down21:59the German nuclear fleet which is in22:02progress so you have to get power from22:04somewhere so now you have a situation22:06where Germany is now suffering power22:08rates are some of the highest in the in22:10Europe German industry is suffering22:14people are suffering because they don’t22:16have there’s poor people there that22:17don’t have enough money to pay there’s a22:20link to an article in the article that22:23I’m going to link to where people are22:24shifting to wood stoves and they’re22:26sneaking out into the woods and chopping22:28down wood illegally I mean it’s it’s not22:32working it’s not gonna work and I think22:34that you know just in the article the22:36one article there’s linked to and22:38they’re you know it gave it vignette of22:40you know Merkel just as just does things22:43on a snap judgment she’s a consummate22:45grubby politician and with her finger in22:49the wind so you know with the Greens22:51party making inroads in Germany she’s22:55counting to it but the problem is is22:57that you know it’s hurting business and22:59industry and jobs and most people23:02there’s a lot of people that don’t care23:04about that that green a lot of people in23:07the green movement could care less they23:09want deindustrialization they want you23:12know they tie everything into socialism23:14and equality and to you know however23:17they define it rights of different23:20indigenous peoples all this thing is23:22just tied into one big goulash that they23:24create and they’re in their philosophy23:26and they could care less23:27but the majority of people do care the23:30majority of people do not want to see23:33their standard of living go down the23:34majority of people want a better you23:39know standard of living and I believe23:41that you’re going to see a big upheaval23:43in German politics culminating with a23:45reversal I think of the nuclear band and23:50I think Germany may even start building23:52nuclear plants23:53I mean I’ve put up article after article23:55you can’t even build a new wind farms in23:57Germany the opposition out in the23:59hinterlands and farms and rural areas is24:03just too high they will not allow it and24:05especially the East Germans East Germans24:07have had enough of this they they see24:10right through it and that’s why you’re24:13seeing AF D alternative for Deutschland24:16make inroads in some of the recent24:18elections and you’ve also seen you know24:21this this has led to the Christian24:24Democratic Union Merkel’s24:27Hera parents she actually resigned24:29because of something that just happened24:31in one of the states German states in24:34East Germany one of the CDU person that24:38was elected got elected with the support24:40of the AFD in a coalition and that was24:44determined to be racist and all that24:45stuff to say FD supposedly is right-wing24:47and so this governor resigned and that24:51reflected back on the Hera parents so24:53there’s a lot of upheaval coming in24:55Europe that’s a whole nother video just24:59about you know the EU is on its way out25:02this is not sustainable25:04there’s too many competing agendas and25:07it’s just not going to last and breaks25:11it is the beginning the populist revolt25:13whether it’s populism coming from the25:14left or the right25:15it will continue around the world the25:20other thing to point out and the article25:22which I thought was interesting or I got25:24this from somebody else I can’t remember25:26here are the emissions of co2 in Germany25:29I believe 2009 was the year they started25:32the energy transition and I somewhere25:35around here I can’t remember I have to25:36look it up the energy and I can’t25:40pronounce it so they long german word25:41that means energy transition basically25:43the solar and wind but you see there’s25:46really not been no decline and that25:48emissions of co2 in germany you know if25:51you wanted to get this down you get your25:54nuclear fleet back and you get rid of25:56all those coal plants and why are you25:58going to build more coal plants that26:02does say in the article though that26:03because these are supercritical boilers26:06supercritical blowers are boilers that26:07run at like 3000 psi coal-fired they26:11actually have 30% reduced emissions of26:14co2 but you’re still going to be pumping26:16out a lot of co2 and this number is not26:19gonna get better so something to watch26:23you know like I said I’ve said this26:25before you know Germany is a real-life26:26Laboratory of a major industrial country26:29that has attempted and we can argue in26:33state if actually that is still trying26:36to attempt to do an energy transition26:38from fossil fuels to26:40it’s simply you see what happens it’s26:43not working it cost a lot of money power26:46rates go up and you know what your net26:48co2 doesn’t go down26:49that’s like I’ve said before there’s a26:51reason why we use Coal Fired there’s a26:53reason why we use nuclear power because26:55large base load generation is cheap and26:58reliable that’s why we use it you’re not27:01going to play solar panels into Baltic a27:04lot of the Baltic Sea where you know and27:06it does the Sun doesn’t shine that often27:08that’s just I mean the certain areas27:10it’s not Arizona or Texas where the Sun27:14shines all the time or Florida or27:15Southern California this is Germany for27:17heaven’s sakes northern Europe but you27:20can’t explain to some people I want to27:23point out another thing saw an article27:26shale pioneer John Hass heading off27:28Shores Hess production Hess oil from the27:35article production of the Eagle Ford27:37Shale in South Texas is starting to27:39plateau while the bat Bakken field North27:41Dakota where Hess as a major producer27:43will hit its peak production levels27:45within the next two years this is a27:47speech that our presentation has gave at27:50a recent oil conference the Permian27:53Basin the top US shale field in Texas27:55and New Mexico will plateau plateau in27:58mid decade and is already facing well28:00interference issues has said so has John28:05Hess plans to use cash flow their Hess28:07company it’s a big very big oil company28:10plans to use cash flow from the Bakken28:11to invest in longer-term offshore28:13investments the company is relied on28:15offshore Guiana one of the world’s most28:18important oil and gas discoveries in the28:19last decade so just another piece of28:23information piece of the puzzle you know28:27I really about shale peaking and shale28:32accounted for 98 percent of the oil that28:37met the demand increases over the last28:39you know five six years in the world you28:43know oil demand goes up a million28:45barrels to a million point one point28:47five million barrels a day every year28:49increases by one to 11.5% every year28:53and that increase has been met by the28:55increases in shale production it’s been28:58huge28:58so non-opec conventional oil has not29:03been invested in it’s not been a29:05contributor and OPEC is just sitting29:08there we don’t you know it’s it’s the29:10call on OPEC has not been to increased29:12production so I think what’s going to29:15happen if things stay correct and we see29:18this decline in growth and shale which29:23is happening if it stays consistent if29:27in fact we are at the top and this29:29thing’s rolling over which I believe it29:31is that being shale the cup there’s not29:38that enough investment main offshore29:39that’s been my thesis and that’s where29:41people that’s where the money’s gonna go29:42now the problem is is with this29:44coronavirus it kind of short-circuited29:46the recovery in oil prices we don’t29:49really know we have to watch inventory29:51levels things are very chaotic right now29:53we don’t have enough information we29:55don’t know where this is going to end29:57but you know looking out three to five30:00years I hate to say that because you30:02know it’s like you just keep saying that30:04every year another three years and30:05people just aren’t going to wait that30:07long I get it but you know if you look30:10at the Reserve life indexes of major oil30:12companies if you look at the investment30:15dollars that have went into oil30:17exploration it’s not been enough to30:19sustain production and the penetration30:22of electric vehicles is not going to be30:24sufficient in the timeframe that’s30:25necessary to create demand destruction30:30and oil I mean in fact electric vehicle30:33sales were down last year they weren’t30:35up so that should tell people something30:39I think oils gonna be around for a lot30:41longer and once we get to this30:43coronavirus which has really been a30:45septic shock to the oil and commodity30:49markets we’ll have to see what happens30:50as we come out of this but I think as30:54this thing gets back on plane and we can30:55see real data it’s gonna become more and30:57more obvious what’s happening that the31:00call on non-opec a conventional supplies31:04will not be able to be met because the31:06lack of investment31:07and then we’ll see if OPEC has the31:09weather with all or has the ability to31:11increase production regardless these are31:15extractive industries and if you don’t31:17invest enough money in replacing your31:20reserves you eventually go out of31:21business I mean I’ve said that over and31:23over and over and that’s really where31:24we’re at so a lot of information there31:28guys that’s it for this week31:31appreciate the support appreciate the31:32viewership you guys are the inspiration31:36to why I do this more people keep31:38subscribing I thank you a lot it means a31:42lot to me and keep on sharing keep on31:46liking the videos it really helps out31:48enjoy the comments switching to a less31:52stressful career so I probably should31:54have more time and I’m hoping to make31:57some changes get some more interviews31:58but we’ll see how things happen over the32:00next coming months that’s it for this32:02week guys thanks a lot and we’ll talk to32:04you next week