US-North Korea summit: How Trump can score a major deal
In 1994 the U.S. and North Korea negotiated what was called the Agreed Framework, which President Clinton hailed as “the first step on the road to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.”
Almost a decade later the U.S. would learn that North Korea had begun to violate the deal almost as soon as the ink was dry by developing a covert uranium enrichment program.
.. Less than three years after discovering its own naïveté, the U.S. returned to the negotiating table as part of the multilateral Six Party Talks. On September 19, 2005, negotiators released a joint statement in which North Korea “committed to abandoning all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.”
.. Most significantly, President Bush ordered the U.S. Treasury to reverse the damage it had done to North Korea by targeting Banco Delta Asia, Pyongyang’s financial institution of choice for evading Western sanctions.
.. If there is hope for a good deal, the way to get there is to show North Korea that it cannot manipulate the diplomatic process as it has done so many times before.
.. President Trump would be wise to avoid the mistake the Obama administration made when it gave Iran $7 billion of sanctions relief at the outset of negotiations in 2013, in exchange for a pause in certain aspects of the Iranian nuclear program.
.. Next, the U.S. will have to coordinate every step of the way with South Korea. South Korean President Moon Jae-In is a long-time advocate of engagement with the North. Seoul’s hesitation to stand firm can be deeply frustrating, but a rupture would play right into Kim’s hands.
.. But President Trump and his administration need to be ready for the far more likely North Korean rejection of nuclear disarmament.
.. If it begins to seem that Kim’s professed commitment to denuclearization is not sincere, the U.S. should prepare for the inevitable effort by the North and President Trump’s political opponents to spin the summit’s failure as President Trump’s fault. That could do substantial damage to the U.S. maximum pressure campaign on North Korea.