Why Trump Stays Afloat
So the bigger question is not about Mr. Trump, but why the last six presidential campaigns became so stable.
The answer is polarization. The same forces that propel a radical candidate to a party’s nomination also provide a floor through which he is unlikely to fall. Mr. Trump’s ascent is the culmination of trends that began in the 1990s, when Newt Gingrich introduced the Contract With America, and adopted tactics like government shutdowns and impeachment. More than any national figure since Sarah Palin, Mr. Trump embodies these attitudes.
.. In The Federalist No. 10, James Madison suggestedthat the slowness of communication between distant states would prevent the formation of organized factions inflamed “with mutual animosity.” But modern communication has rendered Madison’s point of view obsolete.
.. Madison thought that even if a faction shared common motives, physical distance would make it difficult “to discover their own strength, and to act in unison with each other.” Partisan media is not new, of course — in the 1800s, the chief funding for newspapers came from political parties — but talk radio, Fox News and Breitbart can reach like-minded voters with tremendous speed. Social media intensifies the segregation of voters by providing channels of communication tailored to specific preferences. When cable news organizations often seem unwilling to call out falsehoods, wrong information can cause tremendous damage.
.. In a Florida survey, 84 percent of Trump voters said that Mrs. Clintonshould be in prison, and 40 percent said she was a demon.
.. It has been suggested that the Republican Party is motivated today not by political conservatism, but a reaction against contemporary life. Trump voters resemble Romney and McCain voters. They are whites who are more likely to be evangelicals who did not graduate from college. Tensions between these groups and elites and minorities limits the range of support that either side’s candidate will receive.
.. Mr. Trump’s candidacy has revolved almost entirely around emotionally powerful issues like race, immigration and anti-Muslim sentiment. The more you feel a decision in your gut, the less likely it is that you will change your mind.
.. In any district dominated by one party, representatives are determined mainly in primary elections, when turnout is low and the most likely voters are motivated partisans, fulfilling Madison’s fear that “a common passion or interest will, in almost every case, be felt by a majority.” By numerical measures of ideological intensity, from the 1970s to the 1990s, centrism steadily disappeared from the House Republican caucus. Single-party domination has expanded since 2012 because of increased partisan gerrymandering, which eliminated dozens of competitive districts.
.. Facebook has automated story selection for its custom news feed; for political news this tends to foster an echo-chamber effect. However, Facebook data scientists have found a better source of diversity: almost 30 percent of hard-news reports originating from friends reflect opposing views. Even better, individuals are likelier to engage with information like this when it is presented in a social context.
.. Strong emotional experience reduces mental flexibility, suggesting that when tempers run high, as they have for many voters this season, entrenched support for a party or candidate is more likely. So if you wonder whether there is anyone left to persuade, the answer is probably no. We’re too freaked out.